印尼推出16万亿印尼盾经济刺激计划 中新社雅加达9月15日电 (记者 李志全)印度尼西亚政府15日宣布推出总额16.23万亿印尼盾(约合10亿美 元)的一揽子经济刺激计划，旨在提振消费、降低企业成本并扩大就业岗位。 该计划被称为"8+4+5"方案，即8项在2025年内实施的项目、4项延续至2026年的政策以及5项中长期吸 纳就业举措，涵盖教育、税收、住房等领域，重点支持劳动者、学生及关键产业。 印尼经济统筹部长艾尔朗加介绍，上述举措将在2025年第四季度启动，部分政策将延续至2026年。 作为东南亚最大经济体，印尼今年一季度经济同比增长4.87%，二季度为5.12%。政府希望通过本轮刺 激措施，确保2025年实现5.2%的全年增长目标。 在短期措施中，政府将为2万名高校毕业生提供为期6个月的带薪实习机会；扩大个人所得税补贴范围， 从劳动密集型产业延伸至酒店、餐饮业；同时向低收入家庭发放粮食援助，10月至11月每户可领取10公 斤大米。 为灵活就业群体(如网约车司机、快递员等)提供工伤和死亡保险缴费50%补贴，为期6个月。住房方面， 政府计划提供1050套补贴性房屋，并下调住房贷款利率上限；推出"以工代赈"项目 ...

四季度宏观政策有可能推出新的增量措施，核心是财政加力、 央行降息，以及更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。这将在很 大程度上对冲外需放缓，遏制经济下行势头，确保顺利实现全 年"5.0%左右"的经济增长目标。 作者：田进 封图：图虫创意 8月出口同比增长4.8%，单月出口已连续6个月正增长；社会消费品零售总额同比增长3.4%，增速 连续三个月下跌；前8个月全国固定资产投资（不含农户）同比增长0.5%，增速较前7个月下滑1.1 个百分点。 9月15日，国家统计局公布了上述前八个月中国经济增长"成绩单"。数据发布当天的新闻发布会 上，国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示，总的来看，8月份经济运行总体平稳，高质量发展扎实推 进。但也要看到，外部环境复杂严峻，不确定因素较多，国内市场供强需弱，部分企业经营困难。 国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部研究员张立群表示，8月多项宏观经济数据显示，市场引导的 需求收缩力度在进一步加大。为进一步扩大消费，接下来相关政策需要在扩大就业、增加居民收入 方面取得显著成效。"居民越不容易挣到钱，越倾向于预防性储蓄。" 展望后续中国经济增长走势，付凌晖表示，中国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变， ...

Economic Overview - In August, China's exports increased by 4.8% year-on-year, marking six consecutive months of positive growth in monthly exports [2] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.4% year-on-year, with a declining growth rate for three consecutive months [2] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) saw a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in the first eight months, a decline of 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous seven months [2] Trade Performance - The total value of imports and exports in the first eight months increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with exports rising by 6.9% [5] - Exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 10.6 trillion yuan, growing by 9.2% and accounting for 60.2% of total exports [5] - ASEAN became China's largest trading partner, with trade totaling 4.93 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.7% [5] Consumer and Investment Trends - Retail sales growth declined from 6.4% in May to 3.4% in August, with restaurant revenue showing negative growth in some months [8] - Fixed asset investment growth fell from 4.2% in the first quarter to 0.5% in the first eight months, with private investment in real estate down by 16.7% [9] - The decline in investment is attributed to reduced real estate development, impacting overall investment growth [9] Policy Implications - Analysts suggest that to stimulate consumption, policies should focus on increasing employment and residents' income [2][4] - There is a call for significant expansion of government public product investment to boost infrastructure and improve overall economic conditions [10] - The government is expected to introduce new macroeconomic measures in the fourth quarter to stabilize economic growth and employment [4]

Economic Performance - In August, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a decline of 0.5 percentage points from July[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from July[1] - From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 326,111 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, down 1.1 percentage points from January to July[1] - The unemployment rate in urban areas rose to 5.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] GDP and Economic Drivers - The monthly GDP year-on-year growth rate for August is approximately 3.8%, a further decline of 0.5 percentage points from July, significantly below the annual growth target[2][3] - The construction sector contributed a drag of about 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth, while industrial and service sectors each contributed a drag of 0.1 percentage points[2][3] - The decline in economic growth is characterized by a simultaneous slowdown in consumption, investment, and exports, indicating a broad-based cooling of demand[3] Policy Outlook - The current economic situation presents a critical policy window, necessitating more aggressive macroeconomic responses to prevent further economic decline[4][15] - Key measures include accelerating the expenditure of accumulated fiscal deposits, increasing the issuance and utilization of local government special bonds, and enhancing support for infrastructure projects through policy financial tools[4][15] Risks and Challenges - The rising unemployment rate may suppress consumer income expectations and confidence, potentially undermining the effectiveness of consumption stimulus policies[3][15] - There is a risk of policy measures being ineffective if consumers choose to save rather than spend any subsidies received, leading to a "policy hollowing out" effect[3][15]

Economic Activity - China's economic activity experienced a more significant slowdown than anticipated in August, particularly in investment, increasing the likelihood of additional stimulus measures from policymakers to maintain growth towards the official target [1] Industrial Output and Consumption - Industrial output and consumption faced their worst month of the year in August, with factory and mine production growing by only 5.2% year-on-year, marking the smallest increase since August 2024 [2] Retail Sales and Investment - Retail sales rose by 3.4% year-on-year in August, falling short of the expected 3.8% increase and down from 3.7% in July. Fixed-asset investment growth for the first eight months of the year decelerated sharply to 0.5%, the lowest reading for this period since 2020 [3] Bond Yields and Equity Market - The yield on China's 30-year government bonds decreased by two basis points to 2.16%, likely reflecting expectations that the central bank may need to ease monetary policy due to slowing growth. Meanwhile, Chinese equities maintained earlier gains, with the CSI 300 Index up by 0.7% [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates, aiming to stimulate the economy amid signs of sluggish growth and a less vibrant job market [2][3] - The unemployment rate appears manageable, but the job market's vitality is declining, leading to concerns that action is needed [2] - Lower interest rates make loans cheaper for businesses, encouraging them to borrow for expansion and innovation, which could boost economic activity [2] Group 2 - The downside of lower interest rates includes a decrease in the attractiveness of the US dollar, potentially leading foreign investors to seek better returns elsewhere [3] - There is a risk of inflation due to increased money supply, which could raise living costs for consumers [3] - The impact of the Federal Reserve's decision extends globally, potentially prompting other central banks to adjust their monetary policies, complicating the global economic landscape [3][4] Group 3 - The depreciation of the US dollar may lead to upward pressure on the Chinese yuan, affecting export competitiveness while benefiting importers [3] - There is potential for capital inflows into China, which could drive asset prices up in the stock and real estate markets, presenting both opportunities and risks for investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement a rate cut in the upcoming week, with some market participants optimistic about a potential surge in economic growth [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates is expected to influence economic conditions positively [1] - Market speculation suggests that the rate cut could lead to renewed economic expansion [1]

Core Viewpoint - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's total demand increment is expected to reach 39 trillion yuan, primarily driven by the expansion of resident consumption [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Growth Drivers - The contribution of capital formation to total demand has been declining since reaching its peak between 2009 and 2014, with investment growth gradually slowing down [1]. - Although there is still significant room for investment growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan," the growth potential is narrower compared to previous five-year planning periods [1]. Group 2: Consumer Spending and Policy Recommendations - The international environment remains uncertain, making it difficult for net exports to maintain their current high contribution to growth; thus, resident consumption is becoming the "ballast" for economic growth [2]. - There is a need to increase the proportion of resident consumption in total demand to ensure reasonable economic growth [2]. - The development concept should shift towards a people-centered approach, aiming for common prosperity and continuous improvement in living standards, reflected in the sustained expansion of resident consumption and income [2]. - Policies should encourage consumption while protecting both producers' and consumers' rights, alongside accelerating income distribution reform to increase the share of disposable income in national income [2]. - Support for the development of the consumption industry and the promotion of mid-to-high-end consumer goods is essential [2].

Group 1 - The preliminary report from the University of Michigan indicates a decline in the U.S. consumer confidence index to 55.4 in September, marking the lowest level since May and a second consecutive month of decline [1][2] - The report highlights that the long-term inflation expectations have risen for two consecutive months, contributing to increased uncertainty in the economic outlook [2] - The decline in consumer confidence suggests potential reductions in consumer spending, which could negatively impact overall economic growth [2] Group 2 - Analysts point out that the ongoing decrease in consumer confidence reflects the dual pressures of slowing growth and rising inflation facing the U.S. economy [2] - The increase in the probability of personal unemployment among consumers indicates heightened concerns about job market stability, which weighs heavily on consumer sentiment [2] - Recent data shows that in August, U.S. employers added only 22,000 jobs, significantly below market expectations, indicating a slowdown in the labor market [2]

Economic Outlook - Weak economic data raises concerns among analysts about the potential for the U.S. economy to slide into stagflation or even recession, with consumer confidence declining for two consecutive months, job creation falling significantly short of expectations, and inflation levels continuing to rise [1][12] - The current economic situation is reminiscent of the stagflation crisis that plagued the Western world in the 1970s and 1980s, indicating a re-emergence of this long-dormant risk [3] Stagflation Definition - Stagflation is defined as a unique economic phenomenon where production stagnation coexists with inflation, leading to rising unemployment, sluggish corporate production, and soaring prices, creating a dilemma for macroeconomic policy [4] Labor Market and Inflation - Recent data shows a sharp decline in hiring activities in August, with the labor market remaining weak, while inflation has reached its highest point since January, slightly below the Federal Reserve's 2% target [4] - Consumer expectations for inflation over the next year remain high at 4.8%, significantly above the current actual rate of 2.9%, indicating a potential self-fulfilling prophecy that could further elevate actual inflation [4] Political Economic Policies - The economic governance model of the Republican Party, particularly during the Trump administration, is criticized for its large-scale tariff policies that have led to increased prices for imported goods, exacerbating inflationary pressures [6] - In contrast, the Democratic Party traditionally emphasizes balanced economic policies, with historical data showing that GDP growth rates under Democratic presidents have been higher than those under Republican presidents since 1945 [8] Long-term Economic Strategies - The Biden administration's infrastructure investment plan aims to inject $1.2 trillion over the next decade to modernize infrastructure, which is expected to create numerous jobs and enhance long-term economic growth potential [8] - Democratic policies focus on structural reforms and long-term investments rather than short-term stimulus, promoting inclusive and sustainable economic growth [11] Inflation Control Measures - The Democratic approach to controlling inflation includes a multi-faceted strategy, such as releasing strategic oil reserves to stabilize energy prices and implementing the Inflation Reduction Act to lower prescription drug and healthcare costs [9] - The Republican reliance on monetary tools like interest rate hikes is seen as a one-size-fits-all approach that risks leading to economic hard landings [9] Consumer Confidence and Economic Risks - The current economic landscape is precarious, with consumer spending accounting for two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, and declining consumer confidence, a weak job market, and rising inflation signals warrant close attention [12] - If policymakers fail to adjust economic strategies effectively, the U.S. economy may indeed face the unsettling prospect of returning to a stagflation era, impacting living costs, job opportunities, and real income for ordinary Americans [13][15]