Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "anti-involution" as a new phase of supply-side reform, highlighting the structural imbalance between supply and demand as a core issue, leading to declining capacity utilization, falling prices, shrinking corporate profits, and increasing economic downward pressure [5][15]. Group 1: Similarities between Anti-involution and Supply-side Reform - Both anti-involution and supply-side reform are driven by structural supply-demand imbalances, resulting in significant declines in industrial capacity utilization. For instance, industrial capacity utilization fell from 76.8% in Q4 2013 to 72.9% in 2016 before supply-side reform, and from 77.4% in Q4 2021 to 74.0% by Q2 2025 during the anti-involution phase [5][6][13]. - Industrial prices have also seen substantial declines. During the supply-side reform period, the Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced negative growth for 54 consecutive months starting from March 2012. Similarly, the PPI has been in negative growth since October 2022, continuing for 34 months as of July 2025 [6][10]. - Corporate profits have declined due to falling demand and prices. In 2015, industrial profits fell by 2.3%, marking the first negative growth since 1998. In the anti-involution period, industrial profits have been in negative growth since 2022, with a 1.8% decline in the first seven months of 2025 [7][10]. - Economic downward pressure has intensified, with declining capacity utilization and industrial prices leading to reduced corporate revenues and profits, which in turn decrease investment and increase unemployment. GDP growth fell from 8.1% in Q4 2012 to 6.9% in Q4 2015 during the supply-side reform, while the growth rate has stabilized around 5% during the anti-involution period [13][19]. Group 2: Differences between Anti-involution and Supply-side Reform - The macroeconomic environment differs significantly. While both periods face demand shortages, the anti-involution phase is characterized by a more severe demand shortfall due to population decline and a downturn in the real estate market. In contrast, the supply-side reform period saw resilient demand supported by post-financial crisis recovery and real estate market upturns [16][19]. - The industry characteristics also vary. Supply-side reform primarily targeted traditional industries like steel and coal, while anti-involution encompasses a broader range of sectors, including emerging industries and platform economies. This shift indicates a new phenomenon where "involution" competition is prevalent across various industries [21][24]. - The reasons behind the two phases differ. Supply-side reform was largely a response to overcapacity resulting from stimulus policies, while anti-involution is influenced by a wider array of macroeconomic and industry-specific factors, including the deep adjustment in the real estate sector and the transition to new production forces [30][32]. - The implementation paths diverge as well. Supply-side reform focused on traditional industries with administrative measures to cut capacity, while anti-involution emphasizes legal and market-based approaches to regulate competition and foster innovation [40][43].

Core Insights - The meeting in Guangzhou focused on analyzing the current economic situation and addressing existing challenges while aligning with national and provincial directives [2][3] - Emphasis was placed on achieving annual economic targets and enhancing the city's contribution to broader provincial and national development [3][4] Economic Strategy - The city aims to stabilize the economic foundation by integrating into the national market and leveraging various policies to support key industries such as automotive, real estate, and wholesale [3] - There is a strong focus on project construction, with an emphasis on efficient management and expedited processes to ensure timely project initiation and completion [3][4] Consumption and Trade - Initiatives to boost consumption include special actions to enhance consumer spending, particularly around significant events like the National Day and the 15th National Games [3] - The city plans to promote foreign trade by developing new business models and ensuring the successful organization of the 138th Canton Fair [3] Industrial Upgrading - The strategy includes building a modern industrial system and fostering technological innovation to enhance productivity and support the growth of specialized and leading enterprises [3][4] Safety and Stability - There is a commitment to maintaining political and economic security, improving supply chain safety, and ensuring social stability through various measures [3][5] Planning and Development - The city is focused on creating a robust "14th Five-Year" plan, seeking national and provincial support to implement major policies and projects for high-quality development [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market risk appetite has cooled down. In the stock index futures market, leveraged funds are crowded, leading to early profit - taking. In the stock index options market, the bearish side shows strong gaming behavior. In the treasury bond futures market, the bond yield curve has steepened [1]. - For stock index futures, the current pull - back is defined as a shock in a bull market, and the correction is a good opportunity to add positions. For stock index options, it is recommended to use bull spread strategies. For treasury bond futures, short - term bullish sentiment may recover, but medium - term risk preference improvement may disturb bonds, and long - end arbitrage and curve - steepening opportunities can be focused on [9][10][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Outlook Stock Index Futures - **Viewpoint**: Leveraged funds are crowded, leading to early profit - taking. The current pull - back is a shock in a bull market, and the correction is a good opportunity to add positions. The outlook is oscillating with a slight upward trend [9]. - **Logic**: On Wednesday, the equity market rose and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1.76%, the largest single - day decline since the tariff increase in early April, closing barely above 3800 points. "Fixed - income plus" investors redeemed convertible bond funds due to fear of high prices, causing a 2.65% drop in the convertible bond ETF and a record - high trading volume of 21.1 billion yuan. Leveraged funds are in a crowded state, and market risk appetite is likely to cool down. However, the fear - hedging sentiment is not strong, and the futures discount has not expanded abnormally, indicating that it is mainly individual stock profit - taking. Signals of the end of the bull market have not appeared, and the transfer of household deposits is still in progress [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Allocate long positions in IM [9]. Stock Index Options - **Viewpoint**: The bearish side shows strong gaming behavior. The market outlook is oscillating [10]. - **Logic**: The underlying market rebounded in the morning and then dived in the afternoon. Only the Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed up. The option market turnover was 18.528 billion yuan, a 30% increase from the previous trading day. The overall bearish trading volume proportion increased marginally, and the market logic tends to bet on a decline. The position PCR did not drop significantly, and the Shanghai 500 ETF even reached a new high. However, the skewness of the 500 ETF increased significantly, indicating that some call options are also betting on the persistence of the overnight decline. The volatility of some small - scale varieties was greatly affected by intraday trading, while other varieties mainly oscillated at a high level, and the inflection point of the downward volatility has not appeared [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Use bull spread strategies [10]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Viewpoint**: The bond yield curve has steepened. The short - term bullish sentiment may recover, but the medium - term risk preference improvement may disturb bonds. The market outlook is oscillating [12]. - **Logic**: The treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The short - end bond yields performed better than the long - end, and the curve steepened. The central bank's net withdrawal of 23.61 billion yuan in the open - market operation did not tighten the inter - bank liquidity, which supported the short - end bonds. The stock - bond seesaw effect was not obvious. The upcoming policies to expand service consumption and promote service exports may still disturb the long - end bonds [12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend strategies, be cautiously oscillating. For hedging strategies, the cost of short - hedging is high, and long - side alternatives can be considered. For basis strategies, focus on the long - end basis convergence. For curve strategies, focus on curve - steepening opportunities [12]. 2. Economic Calendar - The economic data released this week includes the U.S. new home sales in July, the FHFA housing price index in June, the S&P/CS housing price index in 20 major U.S. cities in June, China's industrial enterprise profits in July, the euro - zone economic sentiment index and consumer confidence index in August, and the U.S. initial and continuing jobless claims in August [13]. 3. Important Information and News Tracking - **Unified Market Construction**: On August 26, a development planning symposium of the Shanghai market supervision system was held, aiming to build a fair market environment, support the construction of the Yangtze River Delta unified market pilot area, and the international science and technology innovation center [14]. - **Overseas Tourist Tax - Free Shopping**: Starting from September 1, 2025, Jilin Province will implement the overseas tourist tax - free shopping policy [14]. - **Urban Village Renovation**: The Shanghai Municipal People's Government Office issued an implementation opinion on accelerating urban village renovation, proposing multiple renovation methods [15]. - **Industrial Enterprise Profits**: In July, the operating income of large - scale industrial enterprises increased year - on - year, and the profit decline narrowed. The gross profit turned from a decline in June to an increase in July [15]. 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions that there are sections for monitoring stock index futures data, stock index options data, and treasury bond futures data, but no specific data content is provided [16][20][32].

Group 1 - The Supreme People's Court issued guidelines to implement the Private Economy Promotion Law, focusing on the judicial protection of data property rights and the resolution of data rights disputes to promote efficient circulation and trading of data elements [1][2] - The guidelines emphasize the need to correct disproportionate administrative penalties against private economic organizations and strengthen judicial efforts against monopolistic and unfair competition practices [2][3] - The guidelines aim to address issues related to overdue payments to private economic organizations, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises, ensuring timely payment of debts [2][3] Group 2 - The guidelines propose measures to combat internal corruption within private economic organizations, including the issuance of guiding cases and promoting legal awareness [3][4] - The guidelines call for the establishment of a one-stop international commercial dispute resolution mechanism to facilitate cross-border commercial mediation, supporting private economic organizations in participating in the Belt and Road Initiative [3][4] - The guidelines stress the importance of judicial protection of property rights and the need to rectify wrongful cases involving enterprises, ensuring strict adherence to legal procedures [4]

Group 1 - The Supreme People's Court has issued guidelines to implement the "Promotion Law of Private Economy," emphasizing the regulation of monopolistic and unfair competition behaviors [1] - The guidelines aim to strengthen judicial efforts against monopolies and unfair competition, ensuring fair market order and competition [1] - The court will accurately distinguish between normal exercise of intellectual property rights and abuse of such rights that restrict competition, promoting fair access to innovation resources [1] Group 2 - The guidelines support the construction of a unified market by ensuring the rational allocation and efficient use of innovation resources among various enterprises [1]

Group 1 - The charging treasure industry is facing challenges due to low-quality products leading to safety issues, prompting regulatory actions to enhance product quality [1] - The new energy vehicle sector is experiencing price wars and unrealistic sales targets, necessitating a return to rational competition and regulatory oversight [1] - Unfair competition characterized by price wars and scale expansion is detrimental to market health, requiring a focus on quality and innovation to foster a more productive environment [1] Group 2 - Both government and enterprises share the responsibility to combat "involution," with a need for regulatory measures to ensure fair competition and resource allocation [2] - Innovation is highlighted as a key strategy for growth, with examples of companies like Haier successfully addressing consumer pain points through product development [2] - Effective market mechanisms and government actions are essential to create a conducive business environment and stimulate innovation [2] Group 3 - Expanding domestic demand and addressing "involution" should be pursued simultaneously, with a focus on guiding competition towards healthier practices [3] - Innovative approaches to enhance consumer experiences, such as the development of cultural and recreational activities, are seen as effective strategies to stimulate demand [3] - Recent regulatory initiatives and industry discussions indicate a collective effort to promote fair competition and prevent detrimental practices in the market [3]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the need for a dual approach to expand domestic demand and combat "involution," highlighting that healthy competition should focus on quality, innovation, and service rather than price wars [1][3] - The charging treasure industry is experiencing a shift as some manufacturers adopt low-quality, low-price strategies, leading to safety concerns and regulatory responses from civil aviation authorities [1] - The new energy vehicle sector is facing challenges due to aggressive price cuts and unrealistic sales targets, necessitating a comprehensive approach to restore rational competition [1][2] Group 2 - The article discusses the importance of fair competition as the essence of a market economy, stating that "involution" represents inefficient and unfair competition that results in losses for all parties involved [1][2] - It highlights the role of government and enterprises in combating "involution," advocating for the regulation of local investment attraction practices to prevent market fragmentation [2] - The article mentions successful innovations by companies like Haier, which have moved beyond price competition to develop unique products that address consumer pain points, thereby enhancing their market position [2][3] Group 3 - The article notes various recent initiatives aimed at promoting healthy competition, including public consultations on price law amendments and industry associations advocating for better practices [3][4] - It suggests that creating new consumption scenarios and enhancing demand through innovative experiences can help steer the economy away from "involution" [3] - The article concludes that a collaborative effort to eliminate detrimental competition will support high-quality economic development [3]

Group 1 - The charging treasure industry is facing challenges due to low-quality products leading to safety issues, prompting regulatory actions to enhance product quality [1] - The new energy vehicle sector is experiencing price wars and unrealistic sales targets, necessitating a return to rational competition and regulatory oversight [1] - Unfair competition characterized by price wars and scale expansion is detrimental to market health, requiring a focus on quality and innovation to foster a more productive environment [1] Group 2 - Both government and enterprises share the responsibility to combat "involution," with a need for regulatory frameworks to ensure fair competition and resource allocation [2] - Innovation is highlighted as a key strategy for growth, with examples of companies like Haier successfully addressing consumer pain points through product development [2] - Effective market mechanisms and government intervention are essential to create a conducive business environment and stimulate innovation [2] Group 3 - Expanding domestic demand and addressing "involution" should be pursued simultaneously, with a focus on guiding competition towards healthier practices [3] - Initiatives such as extending museum hours and developing new consumer experiences are being implemented to stimulate economic activity and move away from "involution" [3] - Recent legislative and regulatory actions indicate a collective effort to promote fair competition and prevent detrimental market practices [3]

Group 1 - The "Two New" policies, which include large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade-in programs, are important measures for promoting high-quality development in China [1] - From January to June, the amount spent by enterprises on machinery and equipment purchases increased by 11.1% year-on-year, continuing the rapid growth trend from the previous year [1] - Retail sales of home appliances, such as televisions and refrigerators, saw significant year-on-year growth of 45.3% and 56.6% respectively, while furniture related to home decoration grew by 34% [1] Group 2 - The sales revenue of the manufacturing industry increased at a rate 1.5 percentage points faster than the overall growth rate of national enterprises, becoming a key support for stable economic growth [1] - High-tech industries experienced a year-on-year sales revenue growth of 14.3% from January to June, indicating a robust expansion of innovative industries [2] - The proportion of inter-provincial sales in total national enterprise sales reached 40.7%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year, reflecting the deepening trade connections and steady progress in building a unified national market [2]

Group 1 - The article highlights the issue of "involution" competition in emerging industries, where companies blindly follow trends, leading to resource waste and inefficiency [1][2] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is implementing systemic measures, including legal revisions and policy guidance, to shift private enterprises from "inefficient competition" to "innovative cooperation" [1][2] - In the first half of the year, China's economy showed resilience with key indicators performing better than expected, supported by various policies aimed at growth and reform [1] Group 2 - The NDRC plans to promote measures to enhance service consumption, digital consumption, and the sharing economy to further unleash consumption potential [2] - The NDRC is focusing on addressing issues of "involution," disorderly competition, and market disruption as key governance priorities for the second half of the year [2][3] - The NDRC aims to combine effective market mechanisms with proactive government actions to improve market order and encourage high-quality competition among enterprises [2][3] Group 3 - The NDRC will enforce regulations against low-price disorderly competition, establishing clear governance measures to guide enterprises in rational pricing and market order [3] - The NDRC is set to advance the revision of the pricing law to clarify standards for identifying unfair pricing practices, particularly those aimed at eliminating competitors [3] - The NDRC will coordinate efforts to promote a unified national market, focusing on institutional development and addressing key issues in market competition [3]