Group 1 - The market is currently pricing an 87% chance of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve, a significant increase from 30% two weeks ago, influenced by weaker jobs data and dovish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller [2] - Treasury yields are declining, with the 10-year yield at 4.063% and the 2-year yield at 3.49%, which supports non-yielding assets like gold due to lower opportunity costs [3] - The upcoming economic data releases, including ADP employment, ISM Services, and delayed September PCE, will determine if the Fed's dovish stance is confirmed or challenged, impacting gold prices [4] Group 2 - The dollar is experiencing its ninth consecutive daily loss, down 0.15% to 99.10 on the index, marking a nearly 9% decline for the year, primarily due to changing rate expectations [5] - The decline in the dollar is further influenced by the euro gaining strength on potential Ukraine peace deal hopes and the yen firming due to discussions of a Bank of Japan rate hike [5]

人民币对美元汇率延续升值势头！ 继升破7.07关口后，12月3日，离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中最高升至7.05625，创2024年10 月9日以来新高。截至发稿，报7.05825。 人民币对美元即期汇率最高达7.0620，刷新去年10月中旬以来新高，截至发稿，报7.0623。 【导读】人民币持续走强，离岸人民币对美元升破7.06 中国基金报记者 忆山 编辑：杜妍 校对：王玥 12月3日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1 美元对人民币7.0754元，较上个交易日调高30个基点，创下2024年10月14日以来新高。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，人民币走势偏强，将提振资本市场信心，也会吸引更多 海外资金流入国内资本市场，与汇市走强形成良性联动。 王青预计，短期内人民币还会处于偏强运行状态，接下来要重点关注美元走势、人民币中间 价调控力度，以及国内稳增长政策的力度和节奏。由于美联储未来可能继续降息，且特朗普 政府关税政策对美国经济的冲击逐步显现，美元指数上行空间有限。不过，年初以来美元跌 幅巨大，对包括美联储降息等在内的利空因素有所消化，后期会有较强的抗跌韧性。 纽约梅隆银行驻 ...

周三欧洲开盘前，金价在短线反弹受阻后回落到日内区间下缘，但整体仍稳稳处于 4200 美元上方。随 着风险偏好逐步升温，避险需求有所降温，而市场焦点重新转向即将公布的美国多项经济数据，以寻求 有关美联储政策节奏的更明确指引。尽管金价的上行动能暂时不强，但美元的延续疲弱与地缘风险未完 全消散，依旧为价格提供底部支撑。 隔夜美股期指继续走高，显示投资者对风险资产的兴趣在本周中段持续回暖。伴随股市企稳，黄金盘中 的上探动作较易遭遇抛压，短线买盘趋于谨慎。与此同时，市场普遍在 ADP 就业数据与 ISM 服务业 PMI 公布前保持观望态度，使得日内波幅偏窄，整体交易情绪以等待为主。 技术层面显示，金价在 4155—4150 区域曾获得明显买盘支撑，目前 4200 一线仍是短线节奏的核心位 置。若金价成功突破 4245—4250 的压力带，或将打开向 4264—4265 以及 4300 心理点位延伸的空间； 若跌破 4200，预计买盘可能重新介入，而更关键的支撑仍位于 4150 区域。一旦该位置被有效击穿，价 格可能重新回探 4100 或 4075—4073 的技术密集区。 短线交易需关注 ADP、ISM 服务业以及本周 ...

周三临近欧洲开盘，黄金在短线反弹乏力后回调至日内整理区间下沿，但整体仍稳守 4200 美元之上。 随着风险偏好延续，本周的避险力量有所减弱，令金价上方空间暂时受限。不过，美元持续走软与地缘 局势的不确定性仍为金价提供底部支撑。在重点数据公布前，市场更倾向于保持克制。 隔夜美股期货延续稳步走高，投资者情绪整体偏暖，使黄金盘中反弹后快速遇阻，短线多头操作相对谨 慎。临近 ADP 就业报告与 ISM 服务业 PMI 公布，部分资金选择降低仓位，导致日内波动被压缩，黄 金维持弱势整理格局。 在关键数据出炉前，美元维持低位震荡，欧元与澳元早盘表现较为坚挺，而英镑则保持区间运行。美元 走弱令黄金始终处于 4200 上方的支撑带内，但最终的方向仍需等待周五公布的 PCE 物价指数提供更明 确的政策信号。 技术结构显示，隔夜金价在 4155—4150 区域获得稳固买盘支撑后反弹，目前 4200 仍是日内多空争夺的 关键。若能突破 4245—4250 的压制区，有望进一步打开上行空间，测试 4264—4265，并向 4300 心理 关口延伸。反之，一旦跌破 4200，预计会吸引逢低买盘回流，而 4150 依然是更深层的重要防守 ...

铜周报 铜行业周报 2025/11/28 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant bull run, with prices reaching historical highs due to geopolitical tensions, monetary policy changes, and central bank purchases, leading to widespread public interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3][9]. Group 1: Price Trends and Historical Context - Gold prices have surged from approximately $2,600 per ounce at the beginning of the year to over $4,100 per ounce, marking a nearly 58% increase within a year [1]. - In 2024, international gold prices set 40 historical highs, indicating a rare and robust bull market not seen in many years [1][3]. - Predictions for 2026 suggest that gold prices may continue to rise, with estimates from major financial institutions indicating potential prices exceeding $5,000 per ounce [8][9]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - Geopolitical instability, including issues in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has led investors to view gold as a safe-haven asset, increasing demand and driving prices higher [3]. - The Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle has attracted funds to gold, as lower interest rates diminish the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [3][9]. - Central banks globally have significantly increased their gold purchases, with a reported net purchase of 220 tons in Q3 2025, a 28% increase from the previous quarter, indicating strong institutional support for gold [3][9]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Current gold prices are at a high level, with fluctuations observed, such as a recent drop from $4,150 to $4,090 within two days, suggesting potential volatility for investors [4][5]. - Historical patterns indicate that after rapid price increases, a correction phase typically follows, which may present buying opportunities for investors [5][10]. - The domestic market shows a divergence in pricing, with brand gold jewelry often priced 20% to 25% higher than international market rates, suggesting that investors may benefit from considering investment-grade gold products like ETFs instead of high-premium jewelry [6][10]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Consumer demand for gold jewelry in China has decreased by 32.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, indicating that high prices may be deterring purchases [8]. - Investors are advised to prepare for potential short-term volatility and to consider a phased investment approach to mitigate risks associated with market entry at high prices [8][11]. - The long-term appeal of gold as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty remains strong, despite potential challenges from high prices and fluctuating dollar strength [9][13].

白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特，本周成为市场关注的热门美联储主席候选人。预测平台 Polymarket上，交易员们加大了对特朗普任命哈西特为下一任美联储主席的押注。目前哈西特胜出的概 率已跃升超20个百分点至56%。多位接近特朗普的顾问表示，特朗普十分信任哈西特，双方私交深厚。 ...

来源：@央视财经微博 【#下一任美联储主席热门人选# 分析人士：#哈西特若当选利空美元#】白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文· 哈西特，本周成为市场关注的热门美联储主席候选人。预测平台Polymarket上，交易员们加大了对特朗 普任命哈西特为下一任美联储主席的押注。目前哈西特胜出的概率已跃升超20个百分点至56%。多位接 近特朗普的顾问表示，特朗普十分信任哈西特，双方私交深厚。目前市场分析人士认为，如果特朗普最 终选择哈西特，这不仅意味着其降息倾向会被带入美联储决策层，也会强化外界对特朗普希望"重塑美 联储运作方式"的预期。基于哈西特偏向宽松的政策立场，分析人士普遍认为，这一人事安排对美元构 成利空。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the resilience of gold prices amidst market fluctuations, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [2][3] - Gold prices have shown strong support, maintaining above the critical level of $4000 per ounce despite a 5% decline from the historical high of $4381.21 reached on October 20 [2][3] - The recent decline in the US dollar index, which fell over 0.6% this week, has provided additional support for gold prices, reflecting market expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold has broken through previous resistance levels, suggesting a bullish trend, with current trading around $4193 per ounce [4][6] - Short-term trading strategies recommend focusing on buying on dips around $4155-4160 and selling on rebounds near $4193-4196, with specific stop-loss levels set to manage risk [6] - The article highlights the importance of monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in December, as a rate cut could trigger a new upward trend in gold prices [3][4]

Group 1 - The U.S. market is experiencing low liquidity due to the Thanksgiving holiday, leading to a subdued global market environment [1] - The dollar is rising while U.S. Treasury bonds, gold, and U.S. stock futures are showing slight declines, indicating a clear trend of "dollar up, everything else down" [1] - The market is currently in a "quiet period" rather than a "safe period," suggesting potential volatility ahead [1] Group 2 - Market volatility is being suppressed significantly, with the VVIX (the fear index of fear) even lower than the VIX (the fear index), indicating a lack of movement [2] - Both bullish and bearish forces are currently inactive, creating a situation where market participants are waiting for others to take action [2] - The current state of the market is characterized by extreme suppression of volatility, and any directional movement is likely to be sudden and unexpected [2]