布达吉安说："我的基本假设是：关税不会在短期内消失。" 进入2026年，美国宏观经济政策正悬在两个致命的"不确定性"之上：一是美国最高法院对总统关税权力 的最终裁决；二是美联储主席鲍威尔的继任人选。 从本周起，美国最高法院步入长达四周的休庭期，这意味着备受关注的关税案进入了代价昂贵的"空窗 期"。与此同时，美联储新任主席的竞争则来到"白热化"阶段，贝莱德高管里德（Rick Rieder）当前被 视为领跑者。 这两大议题共同构成了当前市场研判的核心变量，全球投资咨询公司BCA Research首席新兴市场/中国 策略师阿瑟·布达吉安（Arthur Budaghyan）对第一财经记者表示，在充分评估上述两大事件的不同情境 后，他的核心观点是"看空美元、减持美股，并对包括美股在内的全球股票市场持谨慎态度"。 牛津经济研究院在本月的研究说明中写道，如果这些关税被裁定为非法，美国有效关税税率可能从目前 的接近12%回落至8.3%。即便如此，预计美国政府将迅速采取行动，通过其他更具持久性的法律途径实 施规模相近的新关税。 摩根大通同样分析认为，由于美国政府很可能立即动用其他法律授权推出替代性关税措施，因此，该裁 决对整体 ...

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——国际金价冲破5000美元！7年涨了280%，什么时候才见顶？专家：关键还 看美元，重点关注国际货币体系、降息和科技革命 （记者 王晓波） 每经AI快讯，恒天海龙1月26日晚间发布公告称，冯茂慧先生因工作变动原因申请辞去公司第十三届董 事会董事职务、审计委员会委员及薪酬与考核委员会委员职务。冯茂慧先生辞职后，不再在公司及控股 子公司担任其他职务。 ...

Market Overview - The global market has been influenced by geopolitical tensions and a weakening US dollar, leading to a divergence in pricing across markets[2][3] - A-shares and H-shares have shown strong performance, while US stocks have been weak, particularly in the technology sector[3][7] Stock Market Performance - The A-share market saw the ChiNext Index rise by 2.62% over the two-week period ending January 23, 2026, while the S&P 500 fell by 0.35%[8][10] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.84%, contrasting with the Hang Seng Index's decline of 0.36%[8] Valuation Metrics - The PE ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index is 98.4, while the S&P 500 stands at 89.8, indicating higher valuation in the Chinese market[11] - The PB ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index is 98.4, compared to the S&P 500's 94.3, suggesting a similar trend in valuation[13] Bond Market Insights - The US 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.22%, significantly higher than China's 10-year yield of 1.82%, indicating a substantial yield gap[17] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January 2026 is low, estimated between 4-5%[21] Commodity Market Trends - Precious metals have seen significant gains, with silver prices increasing by 26.7% over the two-week period[42] - Brent crude oil prices rose to $65.88 per barrel, reflecting a strong performance in the energy sector[42] Economic Indicators - The overall return rates for various asset classes, including stocks and bonds, are generally between 1-3%[28] - The average dividend yield for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index is 3.5%, indicating a relatively attractive yield compared to other indices[28]

Group 1 - Silver prices surged past $103 per ounce, reaching a historical high, driven by a systemic reallocation of global capital amid rising uncertainties [1] - The increase in silver prices contrasts with Bitcoin's relatively stagnant performance, raising questions about Bitcoin's future trajectory in light of silver's breakout [1] - Investors have significantly increased allocations to defensive assets due to geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and concerns over fiscal sustainability in Europe and the U.S. [1] Group 2 - Expectations of declining U.S. real interest rates have provided crucial support for precious metals, with traders betting on multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of 2026 [2] - The silver market has been experiencing structural shortages, with supply unable to keep pace with rising demand, further amplifying price increases [2] - Silver's unique industrial properties, alongside its status as a safe-haven asset, have increased its attractiveness amid global energy transitions and infrastructure needs [2] Group 3 - Bitcoin, while benefiting from some macro-positive factors, tends to lag in performance during risk-off phases, being classified more as a risk asset [3] - Historical patterns indicate that Bitcoin's price increases typically follow a shift in market sentiment from panic to concerns over currency devaluation and liquidity expansion [3] - Analysts suggest that while silver's new highs may not immediately benefit Bitcoin, they hold significant forward-looking implications for Bitcoin's potential future performance [3] Group 4 - Key market triggers include the actual initiation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, sustained weakness in the dollar, and escalating fiscal pressures that could redefine Bitcoin as a currency hedge [4] - The historical high in silver prices may indicate that these conditions are gradually forming, although Bitcoin has not yet fully priced in these developments [4]

Group 1 - The US dollar index stabilized around 98.30 after a 0.5% decline, reflecting market caution ahead of the upcoming S&P Global PMI data release [1] - The US GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 was reported at 4.4%, slightly above the expected 4.3%, indicating a relatively strong economic performance [3] - Initial jobless claims were reported at 200,000, lower than the market expectation of 212,000, suggesting a robust labor market [3] Group 2 - The core PCE price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in November, up from 2.7% in October, aligning with market expectations and impacting Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions [3] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December are as high as 95%, indicating a tendency towards easing despite positive economic growth data [3] - Ongoing trade tensions between the US and Europe, along with unclear terms of the US-NATO agreement, add complexity to the geopolitical landscape affecting the dollar [3][4] Group 3 - The potential actions from Europe regarding its substantial US asset holdings could introduce new uncertainties in global capital flows [4] - The stabilization of the dollar index may be temporary, constrained by high rate cut expectations and a complex geopolitical environment [4] - Future attention should be given to PMI data for economic validation and the actual evolution of US-EU relations, as the dollar faces both cyclical and structural challenges [4]

综合来看，在宏观及供需因素影响下，铝价继续在高位区间运行。但基本面逐步进入季节性累库周期， 下游对高价抵触情绪渐强，短期铝价上行空间预计受限，现货铝价涨势或有限。建议密切关注宏观情 绪、累库节奏以及春节前下游备货动态。 长江有色金属网ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 伦敦金属交易所（LME）1月22日伦铝最新库存量报509275公吨，较上个交易日增加2100吨，涨幅 0.41%。 长江铝业网讯：1月22日现货铝价，长江现货A00铝锭价报23740元/吨，涨30元；广东现货A00铝锭价报 23760元/吨，涨20元。 宏观层面，美欧地缘局势缓和，避险情绪降温。美国总统特朗普宣布与北约达成协议，保障美国对格陵 兰岛"全面且永久性准入"。此消息虽暂时缓和了跨大西洋关系紧张，但也凸显出北极地区安全承诺有升 级必要，以应对俄罗斯等国的潜在威胁。除地缘因素外，美元持续走软为铝价提供有力支撑。周四美元 指数下滑 0.5%，收于 98.28，逼近三周低点，令以美元计价的金属商品对海外买家吸引力增强。特朗普 对格陵兰立场转变后，避险货币美元小幅下跌，欧元和英镑等风险敏感货币 ...

美国国债收益率在亚洲下午交易中下跌，回吐了周二部分显著涨幅。ING利率策略师表示，周二美债收 益率的跃升部分反映了日本国债收益率在周一大幅上涨的事实，当时美国国债市场因假期休市。他们指 出："是的，在背景中，日本收益率再次飙升，但此次引发了相关的美元走弱，进而推高了美国收益 率。"特朗普总统的格陵兰威胁也与此相关，他对下一任美联储主席的提名亦然。根据Tradeweb数据， 10年期国债收益率下跌1.8个基点至4.276%，30年期收益率下跌1.9个基点至4.901%。 美国国债收益率在亚洲下午交易中下跌，回吐了周二部分显著涨幅。ING利率策略师表示，周二美债收 益率的跃升部分反映了日本国债收益率在周一大幅上涨的事实，当时美国国债市场因假期休市。他们指 出："是的，在背景中，日本收益率再次飙升，但此次引发了相关的美元走弱，进而推高了美国收益 率。"特朗普总统的格陵兰威胁也与此相关，他对下一任美联储主席的提名亦然。根据Tradeweb数据， 10年期国债收益率下跌1.8个基点至4.276%，30年期收益率下跌1.9个基点至4.901%。 责任编辑：王许宁 责任编辑：王许宁 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the volatility in the Chinese market is expected to drive short-term thematic growth while also indicating a long-term style shift [2][3] - The report notes that the recent cooling of inflation in the U.S. provides a moderate but not overwhelming space for the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments [3][8] - It emphasizes the potential for the Chinese market to undergo a significant long-term style shift during the release of overseas risks, alongside a continued substantial appreciation of the Renminbi [3][4] Group 2 - The semiconductor sector is viewed positively in the short term, with a specific focus on the storage segment due to emerging supply-demand contradictions [3][27] - Long-term investment opportunities are identified in insurance, central state-owned enterprise dividends, anti-involution industries, Chinese concept internet companies, and military trade [3][4] - The report indicates that the technology sector has shown significant gains, while financial real estate and consumer sectors have experienced deeper declines [19][24] Group 3 - The report mentions that the A-share market has seen a notable performance from the Sci-Tech 50 index, which rose by 2.58%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45% [12][19] - It points out that the external capital index positions have weakened, with net short positions expanding [35][36] - Upcoming focus will be on U.S. PCE inflation data and Chinese economic indicators [38]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that the Shanghai tin price will face pressure and adjust in the short - term. It is expected to be adjusted at a high level in the short - term, with attention to the MA10 support, in the range of 39 - 42 [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin rose first and then pulled back. The weekly gain was + 14.95%, and the amplitude was 25.32%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 405,240 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - level**: The People's Bank of China decided to lower the re - loan and rediscount rates, and cut the monetary policy tool rates by 25 basis points, indicating that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. In the US, the number of initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped to 198,000 last week, the lowest since November last year. The US dollar rebounded to a more than one - month high [7]. - **Fundamental - level**: - **Supply**: The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which are expected to continue to rise in the first quarter. Recently, tin ore processing fees have increased slightly, indicating a relief in the tight supply of tin ore. However, most smelting enterprises still have low raw material inventories and are operating at a loss. With more year - end maintenance, refined tin production continues to be restricted, but there is pressure for production to rebound after the Chinese New Year. In addition, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints. Recently, the import window has opened, increasing import pressure [7]. - **Demand**: Recently, the rise in tin prices has led to a decline in downstream procurement demand, a significant increase in inventory, and a spot premium of 500 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has declined [7]. - **Technical - level**: With the reduction in positions and price adjustment, the bullish sentiment has declined, and there may be an adjustment [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Price Changes**: As of January 16, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 405,240 yuan/ton, up 52,330 yuan/ton from January 9, a rise of 14.83%. As of January 15, 2026, the closing price of LME tin was 52,031 US dollars/ton, up 8,281 US dollars/ton from January 9, a rise of 18.93% [9][12]. - **Ratio Changes**: As of January 16, 2026, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.87, an increase of 0.33 from January 9. As of January 14, 2026, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.67, a decrease of 0.32 from January 8 [16]. - **Position Changes**: As of January 16, 2026, the position of Shanghai tin was 115,615 lots, an increase of 9,920 lots from January 9, a growth rate of 9.39%. As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 3,681 lots, a decrease of 2,310 lots from December 22, 2025 [20]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Conditions - **Supply - side**: - **Tin Ore Imports and Refined Tin Production**: In November 2025, the monthly import of tin ore concentrates was 15,099.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. From January to November this year, the import of tin ore concentrates was 118,119.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.51%. In October 2025, the refined tin production was 15,618 tons, and the cumulative refined tin production from January to October was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [26][27]. - **Tin Ore Processing Fees**: On January 16, 2026, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 7,500 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,000 yuan/ton from January 14, a growth rate of 15.38%. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 11,500 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,000 yuan/ton from January 14, a growth rate of 9.52% [32]. - **Refined Tin Imports**: As of January 15, 2026, the profit and loss of tin imports was 9,027.98 yuan/ton, a rise of 9,460.69 yuan/ton from January 9. In November 2025, the refined tin import volume was 1,194.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 127.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.05%. From January to November, the cumulative refined tin import was 20,949.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.21%. In November 2025, the refined tin export volume was 1,948.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.62% and a year - on - year increase of 33.73%. From January to November, the cumulative refined tin export was 20,620.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.87% [37][38]. - **Inventory**: As of January 15, 2026, the total LME tin inventory was 5,925 tons, an increase of 520 tons from January 8, a growth rate of 9.62%. As of January 16, 2026, the total tin inventory was 9,549 tons, an increase of 2,614 tons from last week, a growth rate of 37.69%. The tin futures inventory was 9,462 tons, an increase of 3,033 tons from January 9, a growth rate of 47.18% [41]. - **Demand - side**: - **Semiconductor Index**: On January 15, 2026, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,837.3, a rise of 401.2 from January 8, a growth rate of 5.4% [44]. - **Domestic Electronic Industry Output**: From January to November 2025, the integrated circuit output was 43,184 million pieces, an increase of 3,657.072 million pieces compared with the same period last year, a growth rate of 9.25% [44]. - **Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Exports**: As of November 2025, the tin - plated sheet output was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from October 2025, a decline of 9.09%. The tin - plated sheet export volume was 147,375.58 tons, a decrease of 75,214.24 tons from October, a decline of 33.79% [47].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that significant investment opportunities are often overlooked by the market, with predictions indicating a more optimistic economic outlook for the U.S. and potential shifts in various asset classes [1] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow by 2.6%, surpassing the market consensus of 2.1%, driven by regulatory easing, Fed rate cuts, and increased corporate investment [1][5] - The U.S. trade deficit has narrowed to $29 billion, the lowest level since 2009, indicating a potential improvement in trade dynamics [5] Group 2 - A weaker U.S. dollar is expected to lead to a rebalancing in global currency markets, with predictions of continued appreciation of the Chinese yuan, targeting 6.8 by year-end [3] - The equal-weighted S&P 500 index is anticipated to outperform the market, with a projected annualized return of +6% compared to -1% for the market-cap weighted index [8] - Uranium prices are forecasted to surge over 50% to $130 per pound, driven by increasing public policy support for nuclear energy [9][10] Group 3 - Emerging market bonds are expected to become the best-performing asset class in 2026, with an anticipated return of 11% and a low historical default rate [13][17] - The CLO ETF market is projected to outperform U.S. Treasuries, with strong demand expected in 2025, as investors seek attractive yields with low credit risk [15] - The global ETF market is set to grow by 32% in 2025, reaching a record $18.4 trillion in assets, potentially surpassing the market capitalization of G7 countries (excluding the U.S.) by the end of 2026 [20][21][22]