智通财经4月29日电，汇丰策略师将标普500指数年末目标从6700点下调至5600点，称关税和美国经济增 长低于预期将对企业盈利带来压力。包括Nicole Inui在内的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道："我们预 计，在关税动荡平息、美联储开始放松政策，和/或通胀压力不再积聚之前，市场叙事将在衰退与滞胀 之间反复摇摆"。策略师将标普500指数成分股2025年盈利预期下调5%至每股255美元。预计美联储将在 6月降息，但对关税和通胀的担忧仍可能需要几个月才能缓解。 汇丰下调标普500指数目标位 称关税和经济将给企业盈利带来压力 ...

Group 1 - The core observation is that the current high valuation of the US dollar, which is nearly two standard deviations above its historical average since the floating exchange rate era began in 1973, raises concerns about a potential significant depreciation of the dollar, similar to past occurrences in the mid-1980s and early 2000s [1] - The strong dollar is supported by a continuous influx of investment funds into US assets, with non-US investors holding approximately $22 trillion in US assets, accounting for about one-third of their total investment portfolios, predominantly in equities [3] - A potential reduction in non-US investors' exposure to US assets could lead to severe depreciation of the dollar, as the US must balance its annual current account deficit of $1.1 trillion with equivalent net capital inflows [3] Group 2 - The future strength of the dollar largely depends on the performance of the US economy, with recent downgrades in GDP growth forecasts by Goldman Sachs indicating a decline from 1% to 0.5% for the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the same period this year [4] - Despite the depreciation pressures, the dollar's status as the world's dominant currency is unlikely to be undermined unless faced with extreme shocks, as historical fluctuations have not diminished its core position in the global monetary system [4]

花旗首席经济学家内森·谢茨预计美国经济将在第二季度实现增长，原因是消费者在关税升级前增加了 支出。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The effectiveness of monetary policy relies on public understanding of the Federal Reserve's goals and actions, particularly in the context of current economic conditions and future monetary policy outlook [1]. Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate is to achieve full employment and price stability, with recent data indicating a solid economic growth momentum despite rising uncertainties from trade policies [2]. - Economic growth in the U.S. is expected to slow down significantly this year, with preliminary GDP data for Q1 2025 to be released soon, reflecting potential economic deceleration [2]. - Surveys of households and businesses suggest a changing economic landscape, with a less optimistic growth outlook due to new government policies, particularly in trade [2]. Labor Market and Inflation Analysis - The labor market is currently balanced, with a stable unemployment rate of 4.2% as of March, and an average of 150,000 new jobs added monthly in Q1 [3]. - Inflation has significantly decreased from its peak post-COVID-19, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising by 2.5% over the past 12 months, and core PCE rising by 2.8% [3]. - The Federal Reserve's pace towards the 2% inflation target has slowed due to ongoing price level declines without a corresponding rise in unemployment [3]. Impact of Tariff Policies - The effects of new tariff policies are expected to gradually manifest in the economy, potentially increasing short-term inflation expectations, although long-term inflation expectations remain stable [4]. - The dual risks of rising unemployment and inflation are increasing due to significant policy changes in trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariff adjustments may lead to inflationary pressures and slower economic growth, with the extent and duration of these impacts still uncertain [6]. Conclusion on Economic Stability - High inflation and unemployment pose significant risks to households and businesses, emphasizing the importance of achieving full employment and price stability [7]. - The Federal Reserve is committed to navigating the complexities of current economic conditions to fulfill its dual mandate effectively [7].

王衍行：特朗普呼吁美联储降息，美联储这次会如何办？ 美联储的独立性正遭遇前所未有的挑战。周三晚上，美国总统特朗普再次发声，敦促美联储降息，以配合其新一轮关税政策。 然而，周三早些时候，美联储主席鲍威尔表达了完全相反的观点，认为贸易政策的冲击主要体现在推高通胀，而非削弱经济增长。 美联储最新预测显示特朗普上台已彻底改变经济。周三早些时候，美联储发布了自特朗普就任总统以来的首批预测，以其一贯低调和技术性的方式凸显了这 位总统推进广泛关税措施的计划已经在多大程度上颠覆了经济前景。就在几个月前，美联储决策者们还预计，他们将在2025年逐步降息，在不引发失业率大 幅上升的情况下继续推动通胀率下降，从而实现所谓的软着陆。但美联储的最新预测指出，涵盖一系列商品和材料的关税将推高物价，同时削弱投资、信心 和经济增长，至少在短期内是如此。美联储在利率政策方面维持观望立场不变，同时上调通胀预期，并下调今年的美国经济增长和就业预期。 特朗普的逻辑：为何他需要降息？ 特朗普对降息的诉求，表面上是出于经济考量，实则主要出于政治需求。在Truth Social上，他写道："随着美国关税开始过渡（放松），美联储降息会好得 多！做正确的事。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. economic situation under Trump's administration and its impact on China's economic growth targets, emphasizing that Trump's strategies may not effectively slow down China's growth while needing to boost U.S. growth simultaneously [1][9][72]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Performance - In 2024, the U.S. economy grew by 2.8%, while China's economy grew by 5.0%, indicating that China's growth rate is 80% higher than that of the U.S. [9][11]. - The U.S. economy's average annual growth rate has been declining for nearly 60 years, dropping from 4.4% in 1969 to 2.1% in 2024 [31][32]. - Trump's first term saw the lowest average GDP growth rate among post-war presidents at 1.8% [29]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Economic Growth - To significantly increase U.S. economic growth, it is essential to raise the share of fixed capital formation in GDP [40][72]. - The correlation between fixed capital formation and GDP growth is strong, with a 12-year correlation coefficient of 0.85, indicating that higher investment leads to higher growth [44][68]. - Conversely, a higher share of consumption in GDP negatively correlates with growth, suggesting that increasing consumption may hinder economic expansion [51][68]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. economic strategies under Trump are likely to lead to conflicts with other nations and exacerbate internal political tensions [12][22]. - The perception of the U.S. economy in the international community is influenced by its comparative performance against China, which is expected to maintain a growth advantage [11][12]. - The article suggests that unless the U.S. can effectively slow China's economic growth, it must focus on increasing its own investment levels to remain competitive [72][76].