Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, with two members voting against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut, marking the first dissent since 1993 [1] Economic Conditions - The Federal Reserve's assessment of economic conditions was downgraded to "growth of economic activity moderated" from "expand at a solid pace," indicating a slowdown in economic growth [6] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with June's non-farm payrolls increasing slightly to 147,000, but half of this increase was due to government jobs, while private sector employment declined [2][5] - The labor force participation rate is decreasing, and wage growth is slowing, suggesting a weakening labor market [2][5] Inflation Trends - Inflation is experiencing short-term rebound risks, with June inflation rising primarily due to increases in energy and core goods, while core services inflation remains stable [2][5] - The Federal Reserve maintains that inflation is still somewhat elevated, and the process of returning to target levels is halfway complete [4] - Tariff costs are gradually being passed on to consumers, but the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary [4][5] Market Reactions - Following the Federal Reserve's announcement, the market's expectation for a rate cut in September significantly decreased from over 60% to below 50% [7] - The stock market experienced a decline, while bond yields rose and the dollar index increased, reflecting market uncertainty regarding inflation and economic conditions [7]

Core Insights - The U.S. economy showed signs of recovery in Q2, with GDP growth of 3% compared to a contraction of 0.5% in Q1 [1] - Consumer spending increased by 1.4%, marking the weakest performance in two consecutive quarters since the pandemic [1] - Net exports contributed positively to GDP growth, adding 5 percentage points, reversing the previous three months' negative impact [1] Economic Activity - The rebound in economic activity was attributed to a slight recovery in consumer spending and a decrease in the import surge that had previously inflated [1] - Business investment growth has also slowed down, indicating a cautious outlook among companies [1] Market Reaction - Following the release of the Q2 GDP report, U.S. Treasury prices fell, and the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose by approximately 3 basis points to 4.35% [1]

金十数据7月30日讯，机构分析称，与一季度的情况一样，二季度主要GDP数据被贸易严重扭曲。经济 学家敦促关注面向国内私人买家的最终销售，这被经济学家和政策制定者视为美国经济增长的晴雨表。 该指标继第一季度增长1.9%后，第二季度增长1.2%。这是自2022年第四季度以来国内需求增长最慢的 一次。此外，经济学家预计下半年经济增长乏力。尽管白宫已经宣布了一系列贸易协议，但经济学家 说，美国的实际关税税率仍然是自上世纪30年代以来最高的水平之一，并指出，美国约60%的进口仍未 受到协议的影响。 分析：美国二季度数据严重扭曲 预计下半年经济增长仍将乏力 ...

金十数据7月30日讯，美国经济在第一季度萎缩之后，在第二季度恢复增长，这主要归因于贸易波动。 美国商务部表示，美国第二季度GDP增速为3%，超过了经济学家们的预期2.4%。此前，由于企业为应 对特朗普政府预期的关税而大量进口，第一季度GDP以0.5%的年率萎缩。第二季度GDP报告标志着特 朗普政府关税政策引发经济不确定性的半年结束。特朗普已将关税作为其经济议程的基石，并表示从长 远来看，关税将使美国更加富裕，并带回制造业就业岗位。不过，经济学家表示，越来越多的迹象表 明，消费者和企业在特朗普设定的最后期限前处于观望状态。一些经济学家预计，特朗普政府的贸易和 移民政策需要时间来影响通胀和劳动力市场。 美国第二季度经济增速为3% 超出预期 ...

金十数据7月30日讯，美国二季度经济增长超过预期，从年初因贸易冲突带来的下滑中反弹。然而，即 便如此，经济增长的整体趋势仍略显放缓，相较近几年处于较低水平。数据显示，剔除通胀因素后，美 国二季度实际GDP年化季率初值增长了3%，超过预期。与一季度-0.5%相比，二季度的增长构成了显著 反弹。年初，美国企业为了规避特朗普总统提高关税的政策，大量提前进口商品，导致第一季度进口激 增，从而大幅拉低了当季GDP增长。而在接下来的三个月中，这一趋势发生逆转。特朗普在4月2日宣布 的激进关税措施，起初对企业和消费者的实际冲击并未如预期那般严重，反而带动了经济数据的修复。 美国二季度经济反弹幅度大于预期 但整体趋势仍略显放缓 ...

美国经济分析局7月30日发布数据显示，美国第二季度经济折合年率增长3.0%。 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on July 29-30 is expected to maintain current interest rates, with a near-zero probability of a rate cut in July and less than 60% for September, primarily due to the recent CPI data indicating the inflation effects of tariffs [1] - Recent comments from Fed officials suggest a potential shift in policy considerations, with some members supporting a rate cut while others advocate for maintaining current rates due to rising inflation concerns from tariffs [1][2] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies is diminishing, as recent agreements with Japan and the EU suggest a potential stabilization of tariff levels, which could reduce the Fed's concerns regarding inflation and influence their decision-making [2] Group 2: Inflation Trends - Current inflation levels in the U.S. are not showing significant increases, with the June CPI data indicating a projected PCE inflation growth of 2.5% year-on-year, and core PCE at 2.7% [3] - Research indicates that excluding tariff impacts, U.S. inflation has been close to the Fed's 2% target, suggesting that the inflationary pressure from tariffs may not be as significant as previously thought [3] - If consumers absorb one-third of the new tariffs, a permanent 10% increase in tariffs could raise PCE inflation by 0.3 percentage points this year, but this effect is expected to dissipate by next year [3] Group 3: Employment and Economic Growth - Recent employment data shows signs of weakness, with only 147,000 new jobs added in June, primarily from government sectors, while private sector job growth appears stagnant [4] - The private sector's employment situation is critical for understanding economic momentum, and recent adjustments suggest that previous job growth figures may have been overestimated [4] - Economic indicators such as retail sales and PMI show stability, but sectors sensitive to interest rates, like manufacturing and real estate, are experiencing contraction, indicating a need for potential rate cuts to stimulate consumer spending [4] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Fed Independence - There is growing concern regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially with external pressures from the Trump administration advocating for rate cuts [5] - A rate cut in July could be perceived as yielding to political pressure, while a refusal to cut rates when appropriate could undermine the Fed's independence [5] - The possibility of postponing a rate cut until September is being considered by some FOMC members, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are experiencing a wide range of fluctuations, with current trading around the support levels established previously [1][4] - COMEX gold prices have declined to $3371.3 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.77%, while domestic SHFE gold prices are reported at 778.08 yuan per gram, down 0.78% [3] - The latest PMI data shows a significant slowdown in the manufacturing sector, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.5, below expectations, while the services PMI is at 55.2, indicating a reliance on the service sector for economic growth [3] Group 2 - The weekly chart suggests that gold prices are expected to remain within the range of $3000 to $3500 for the second half of the year, with potential upward movement anticipated next year [4] - Short-term trading strategies should focus on the support and resistance levels, with key support identified at $3350 or $3335 and resistance at $3382 or $3393 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The euro is likely to weaken significantly by the end of the year due to underwhelming economic growth in the Eurozone, despite current market expectations being more favorable than those for the U.S. economy [1] Economic Growth Expectations - Market expectations for Eurozone growth are currently better than those for the U.S. [1] - The company anticipates that even if the U.S. does not impose the proposed 30% tariffs on EU imports, these growth expectations will still not be met [1] Fiscal Policy Impact - The company believes that loose fiscal policies will boost economic growth in Germany [1] - However, the overall impact of fiscal policy on the Eurozone is expected to be neutral [1] Tariff Effects - The macroeconomic research firm predicts that the impact of tariffs on U.S. economic growth will be relatively mild [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant drop in ADP employment numbers for June, which decreased by 33,000 jobs, contrasting sharply with the market expectation of an increase of 100,000 jobs. This marks the first negative reading since March 2023 and indicates underlying issues in the employment market despite its apparent strength [1][3][5]. Group 2 - The service sector is the hardest hit, with professional and business services losing 56,000 jobs, followed by the education and healthcare sector with a reduction of 52,000 jobs, and financial activities decreasing by 14,000 jobs. The Midwest and Western regions also saw job losses of 24,000 and 20,000 respectively, while the Southern region barely maintained slight growth [3][5]. - Small businesses, defined as those with fewer than 20 employees, experienced a net loss of 29,000 jobs, highlighting their vulnerability under high interest rates and policy uncertainty, whereas larger companies with over 500 employees added 30,000 jobs [3][5]. - ADP's Chief Economist Neela Richardson pointed out that while mass layoffs have not occurred, companies are adopting a strategy of "freezing hiring" and "not filling vacancies," leading to a passive contraction in employment. The average monthly job growth over the past three months has been only 18,700, the lowest since the onset of the pandemic [5][7]. Group 3 - The tightening of immigration policies has led to a decline in foreign labor, resulting in a reduction of 2 million in labor supply, which is more impactful than tariff effects. A recent study warns that net immigration in the U.S. could reach zero or even negative this year, necessitating the creation of only 10,000 to 40,000 jobs monthly to maintain the current unemployment rate, but this could permanently damage economic growth potential [5][7]. - Following the ADP data release, traders increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in July from 20% to 27.4%, with expectations for at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. The upcoming non-farm payroll report is critical, as economists expect an addition of 110,000 jobs, but past data revisions have raised concerns about the reliability of these figures [7].