Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, after a strong breakthrough, the stock index is more likely to strengthen and fluctuate under the drive of sentiment and liquidity. Attention should be paid to macro incremental information for guidance on the stock index direction. In the long - term, the Politburo meeting at the end of July will set the policy tone for the second half of the year. Given the possible further deterioration of real estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, policies are expected to further support domestic demand. Overseas, the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the approaching Fed rate - cut time, and changes in geopolitical patterns will bring phased trading opportunities for the stock index [6]. - In the future, the central bank may continue to reasonably supplement liquidity through over - renewal of MLF or in combination with reverse repurchase tools in the second half of the year [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.51 with a 14.09bp increase, DR007 at 1.91 with a 20.92bp increase, GC001 at 2.14 with a 175.00bp decrease, GC007 at 1.69 with a 34.50bp decrease, SHBOR 3M at 1.63 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.34 with a 0.50bp decrease, 5 - year treasury at 1.49 with a 0.50bp increase, 10 - year treasury at 1.65 with a 0.10bp increase, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.29 with a 3.00bp increase [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 3315 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 2205 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1110 billion yuan. This week, 20275 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature. The central bank will conduct 3000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on the 25th, with 1820 billion yuan maturing, achieving a net injection of 1180 billion yuan for the fourth consecutive month. Combining with reverse repurchase operations, the net injection of medium - term liquidity is 3180 billion yuan [3][4]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.37% to 3936.1, the Shanghai 50 rose 0.16% to 2712, the CSI 500 rose 0.88% to 5915.4, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.26% to 6356.2. The trading volume of the two markets was 14869 billion yuan, a decrease of 542 billion yuan from last Friday. Industries such as aerospace, gaming, shipbuilding, photovoltaic equipment, medical services, electronic chemicals, jewelry, small metals, and communication equipment led the gains, while only the securities, banking, cement building materials, and airport sectors declined [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF当月 rose 0.4%, IH当月 rose 0.3%, IC当月 rose 0.6%, and IM当月 rose 0.8%. The trading volume and positions of all four futures contracts decreased, with IF trading volume down 26.4%, IH trading volume down 31.3%, IC trading volume down 13.7%, and IM trading volume down 11.4%. IF positions decreased by 3.8%, IH positions by 9.1%, IC positions by 3.4%, and IM positions by 5.7% [5]. - **Premium and Discount**: IF premium/discount rates for the current, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 15.29%, 8.64%, 5.76%, and 4.34% respectively; IH are 14.20%, 6.73%, 3.82%, and 1.72% respectively; IC are 17.96%, 12.96%, 11.17%, and 9.52% respectively; IM are 23.35%, 16.93%, 14.72%, and 12.79% respectively [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's open - market operations last week had a net injection of 126.72 billion yuan, and this week, 202.75 billion yuan of reverse repos will mature. The central bank will conduct a 30 - billion - yuan 1 - year MLF operation on the 25th, with a net injection of 31.8 billion yuan in medium - term liquidity. It is expected that the central bank may continue to supplement liquidity through operations in the second half of the year [4][5] - In the first half of the year, the stock index showed a volatile pattern. Due to insufficient domestic demand support, significant policy support, and frequent overseas disturbances, the upward and downward movement of the stock index was restricted. In the second half of the year, the Politburo meeting in late July will set the policy tone. Policy support for domestic demand is expected to increase, and overseas factors will bring trading opportunities [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Market - **Interest Rate Data**: DRO01 closed at 1.37 with a - 0.17bp change, DR007 at 1.70 with a 1.18bp change, GC001 at 3.89 with a 216.50bp change, etc. [4] - **Central Bank Operations**: Last week, the central bank conducted 202.75 billion yuan of reverse repo operations and 30 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net injection of 126.72 billion yuan. This week, 202.75 billion yuan of reverse repos will mature, and a 30 - billion - yuan 1 - year MLF operation will be carried out on the 25th, with a net injection of 31.8 billion yuan in medium - term liquidity [4][5] 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Stock Index Quotes**: On the last trading day of the week, the CSI 300 fell 0.61% to 3921.8, the SSE 50 fell 1.13% to 2707.6, the CSI 500 rose 0.44% to 5863.7, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.47% to 6276.9. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.5411 trillion yuan, a decrease of 42.1 billion yuan. The industry sectors showed more gains than losses [6] - **Stock Index Analysis**: In the first half of the year, the stock index showed a volatile pattern. In the second half of the year, policy support for domestic demand is expected to increase, and overseas factors will bring trading opportunities [7] - **Stock Index Futures**: The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all have different levels of premium or discount rates [8]

期货执业证号:F3074875: 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 2025/6/26 | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (bp) | | | (bp) | | | DR001 | 1.37 | 0.11 | DR007 | 1.69 | 2.52 | | | GC001 | 1.81 | 21.00 | GC007 | 1.97 | 7.00 | | 化 贝 | SHBOR 3M | 1.63 | 0.10 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | H | 1年期国债 | 1.37 | 0.28 | 5年期国债 | 1.52 | 0.03 | | 市 | 10年期国债 | 1.65 | 0.40 | 10年期美债 | 4.30 | -4.00 | | 场 | 回顾:央行昨日开展了3653亿元7天期逆回购操作,当日1563亿元逆回购 | | | | | | | 与 | 到期,据此计算,单日净投放2090亿元。 热评:本周央行公开市场有9603亿元 ...

热评:本周央行公开市场有9603亿元逆回购到期,其中周二至周五分别到 期1973亿元、1563亿元、2035亿元、1612亿元。一年来,央行坚持支持性 的货币政策立场,从数量、价格、结构等方面,出台了多项货币政策措 施,有效支持了经济持续回升向好和金融市场的稳定。同时,央行完善货 币政策框架,优化货币政策中间变量,培育政策利率,提升货币政策传导 效率,丰富货币政策工具箱,做好政策沟通和预期引导。货币政策框架的 转型是一个渐进、持续的过程,未来央行还将不断地做好评估和完善。 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变动 (%) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 我則一日受 动(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 3858 | 0.29 | IF当月 | 3823 | 0.5 | | 上证50 | 2685 | 0.41 | IH当月 | 2654 | 0.7 | | 中证500 | 5674 | 0.61 | IC当月 | 5626 | 0.7 | | 中证1000 | 6078 | 1.31 | IM当月 | 6001 | 1.1 | | IF成交量 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Overseas data shows the cooling of the US economy, but it's not enough to change the Fed's stance. The Middle - East geopolitical instability has raised market risk - aversion. Domestic A - shares are in a state of stock game, with expectations of index repair and attention to policies from the Lujiazui Financial Forum and foreign capital inflows [1][2][11] Summary by Directory 1.行情观点 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The US May retail sales monthly rate was - 0.9%, lower than expected and the previous value, the largest decline since March 2023, mainly due to the drop in car purchases. The May industrial output monthly rate was - 0.2%, also lower than expected and the previous value. The Fed is more concerned about labor - market data and is delaying interest - rate cuts due to internal contradictions. Overnight, the US dollar index rose, US bond yields increased, gold slightly rose, crude oil rose, US stock indexes fell, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropped, with the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciating. Middle - East geopolitical fluctuations increased market risk - aversion [1][4] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.12%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.36%. The market showed a volatile correction. Although the index decline was limited, individual - stock declines widened. The market was mainly affected by news and in a state of stock game with sector rotation. Coal, public utilities, etc. rose, while pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, etc. fell. The Lujiazui Forum is being held, and policy news is to be focused on [2][5] 1.3 Important News - The US Senate passed a stablecoin bill. Trump mentioned upcoming drug tariffs. 95% of central banks expect gold reserves to rise in the next 12 months. The "Fed whisperer" said the Fed would have been ready to cut interest rates this week without tariff risks. There are ongoing developments in the Israel - Iran conflict, and China announced evacuating citizens from Iran and Israel. China's new - generation manned spacecraft had a successful test [6][7][9] 1.4 Today's Strategy - Pay attention to whether the US will directly attack Iran and the intensification of great - power games. Domestic A - shares are in a stock game. With the expectation of policies from the Lujiazui Financial Forum, the index is expected to repair. Focus on policy news' impact on index trading volume and foreign capital inflows when gold prices are high [11] 2. Futures Market Tracking - The document presents the performance, trading volume, and positions of futures contracts for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes, including data such as closing prices, settlement prices, trading volume changes, and position changes [13][14] 3. Spot Market Tracking - It shows the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes, trading volume, and valuation of major stock indexes and sectors. Market - style contributions to the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes are also presented, along with charts on market trading volume, turnover rate, and other indicators [36][37][38] 4. Liquidity Tracking - Charts on central - bank open - market operations and Shibor interest - rate levels are provided [53]

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2 - Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is interval oscillation, the medium - term view is going up, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly. The policy - side positive expectations form strong support, but there are uncertainties from external factors such as the evolution after the end of the Sino - US tariff war suspension period and the Middle East geopolitical crisis [1][5] Group 3 - Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term trend is oscillation, the medium - term trend is upward, the intraday trend is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is that the latest May credit data shows weak real - economy financing demand, so policy - side support is expected. The positive policy expectations strengthen the bottom support of the stock index. Also, there are high uncertainties from external factors, and the stock market risk preference is defensive. In the short term, the stock index will mainly oscillate in an interval, waiting for new driving forces [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Today's news was relatively quiet, with stock indices fluctuating within a narrow range and the dividend index leading the gains. Market sentiment was cautious. The domestic economic fundamentals were in a weak recovery state, while there were still uncertainties overseas and the external situation was volatile. Under the influence of both domestic and international factors, the stock indices lacked strong drivers, resulting in a strong wait - and - see sentiment and low trading activity in the market. The upcoming Lujiazui Forum tomorrow morning will release several financial policies. If there are policies exceeding expectations, it is expected to drive the stock indices to enter a phase - up trend [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock indices fluctuated weakly. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed down 0.09%. In terms of capital flow, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 7.863 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IC declined on heavy volume, IH rose on light volume, and IM rose on heavy volume [2]. Important Information - The two - day 2025 Lujiazui Forum will open tomorrow morning with the theme of "Financial Opening - up, Cooperation and High - quality Development in the Changing Global Economic Landscape". - The Bank of Japan kept the policy benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.50%, in line with market expectations, and remained on hold for the third consecutive meeting [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [5]. Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -0.01 | 0.10 | -0.20 | 0.02 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 9.563 | 5.0679 | 8.6313 | 17.9958 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | -0.6555 | 0.2873 | -0.011 | 0.713 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 23.7778 | 8.2576 | 21.8236 | 32.9756 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | 0.1165 | -0.0433 | 0.0333 | 0.5515 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.04 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -0.12 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.77 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 1207.213 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | -78.63 | [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View No clear core view is presented in the given content. It mainly provides data on global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year Treasury Yields**: On June 13, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies varied. For example, the US was 4.401%, and the UK was 4.549%. Changes in yields were also provided for the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods. For instance, the one - year change in the US was 0.074%, while in Italy it was - 0.384% [3]. - **2 - year Treasury Yields**: The 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies such as the US, UK, and Germany were presented. On June 13, 2025, the US 2 - year yield was 3.940%. Similar to the 10 - year yields, changes for different time periods were given [3]. - **Exchange Rates**: The exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging economies' currencies were shown. On June 13, 2025, the exchange rate against the Brazilian real was 5.544, with the latest change being 0.11%. Changes for the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods were provided [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The performance of major economies' stock indices was reported. On June 13, 2025, the Dow Jones was 5976.970, with a latest change of - 1.13%. Changes for different time periods were also included [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The performance of credit bond indices, including emerging economies' investment - grade and high - yield, and US and euro - zone investment - grade and high - yield, was presented. The latest changes, one - week, one - month, and one - year changes were given [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were provided. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3377.00, with a change of - 0.75% [4]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) and its环比 changes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were reported. For instance, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 12.72, with a环比 change of - 0.06 [4]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premiums (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) and their环比 changes of S&P 500 and German DAX were given. The risk premium of S&P 500 was - 0.46, with a环比 change of 0.01 [4]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were presented. The latest value of A - shares' fund flow was - 1393.57 [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - and medium - sized board, and ChiNext were reported. The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 14671.97 [4]. - **Main Contract Premiums/Discounts**: The basis and percentage changes of IF, IH, and IC were provided. The basis of IF was - 7.78, with a change of - 0.20% [4]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Changes**: The closing prices and percentage changes of Treasury bond futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were presented. The closing price of T00 was 108.825, with a change of 0.02% [5]. - **Funding Rates**: The funding rates R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M and their daily changes (BP) were given. The R001 rate was 1.4620%, with a daily change of - 12.00 BP [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, 930.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature, with 135 billion yuan maturing on Friday. After the bank assessment at the beginning of the month, the capital market has become looser, and the central bank uses various tools to ensure reasonable and sufficient mid - year liquidity [4] - Current domestic factors have weak driving forces for stock indices. The fundamentals are weak, with low inflation and slowed export growth. The policy is in a vacuum. Overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations. Short - term Sino - US trade negotiations have relatively positive results, leading to a relatively strong market oscillation. Investors should be cautious about repeated Sino - US tariff signals and long - position investors in stock index futures can buy put options to hedge risks [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Money Market - DR001 closed at 1.37, up 0.47 bp; DR007 at 1.54, up 1.10 bp; GC001 at 1.49, down 4.50 bp; GC007 at 1.57, down 1.00 bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.64, down 0.30 bp; LPR 5 - year at 3.50, down 10.00 bp; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.41, unchanged; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.51, up 0.50 bp; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.65, up 0.30 bp; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.41, down 6.00 bp [3] - The central bank conducted 119.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an interest rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 126.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 7.2 billion yuan [3] 3.2 Stock Index Market - The closing prices and changes of major indices: CSI 300 fell 0.06% to 3892.2; SSE 50 fell 0.03% to 2691.3; CSI 500 rose 0.12% to 5799.9; CSI 1000 rose 0.09% to 6192.2. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.2718 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.3 billion yuan [5] - Industry sectors: Precious metals, beauty care, jewelry, diversified finance, culture and media, household light industry, and biological products led the gains, while shipping ports, brewing, and electronic chemicals led the losses [5] - Futures market: IF volume was 83,934, down 25.1; IF open interest was 235,571, down 6.2; IH volume was 45,745, down 15.2; IH open interest was 82,865, down 1.4; IC volume was 67,708, down 15.9; IC open interest was 216,406, down 1.2; IM volume was 158,990, down 13.9; IM open interest was 326,593, up 0.6 [5] 3.3 Futures Ascertainment and Premium/Discount Situation - IF premium/discount rates for different contracts: 10.08% for the current - month contract, 13.18% for the next - month contract, 0.02% for the current - quarter contract, and 5.48% for the next - quarter contract [7] - IH premium/discount rates for different contracts: 15.39% for the current - month contract, 17.06% for the next - month contract, 7.05% for the current - quarter contract, and 3.69% for the next - quarter contract [7] - IC premium/discount rates for different contracts: 15.68% for the current - month contract, 17.40% for the next - month contract, 13.15% for the current - quarter contract, and 11.05% for the next - quarter contract [7] - IM premium/discount rates for different contracts: 26.10% for the current - month contract, 21.68% for the next - month contract, 17.60% for the current - quarter contract, and 14.67% for the next - quarter contract [7]

Report Overview - Report Title: "大类资产早报" - Report Date: June 13, 2025 - Author: Research Center Macro Team 1. Global Asset Market Performance 1.1 Main Economies' 10 - Year Treasury Yields - On June 12, 2025, yields in the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.361%, 4.475%, 3.180% respectively. Latest changes ranged from -0.061 (US) to 0.002 (China). One - year changes varied, with the UK up 0.255 and Italy down 0.475 [3]. 1.2 Main Economies' 2 - Year Treasury Yields - On June 12, 2025, yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 4.010%, 3.861%, 1.810% respectively. Latest changes ranged from -0.046 (UK) to 0.072 (South Korea). One - year changes also showed differences, like the US down 0.910 and Japan up 0.349 [3]. 1.3 US Dollar to Main Emerging Economies' Currency Exchange Rates - On June 12, 2025, the exchange rate against the Brazilian real was 5.537. Latest changes were from -0.93% (South Korean won) to 0.26% (South African rand). One - year changes showed the Brazilian real up 5.56% and the South African rand down 3.99% [3]. 1.4 Main Economies' Stock Indexes - On June 12, 2025, the S&P 500 was at 6045.260. Latest changes were from -0.74% (German DAX) to 0.38% (S&P 500). One - year changes were significant, such as the German DAX up 27.75% and the French CAC down 2.91% [3]. 1.5 Credit Bond Indexes - On June 12, 2025, the US investment - grade credit bond index was 3392.930. Latest changes were from -0.02% (Eurozone high - yield credit bond index) to 0.43% (US investment - grade credit bond index). One - year changes were positive across the board, with the emerging economies' high - yield credit bond index up 13.14% [3][4]. 2. Stock Index Futures Trading Data 2.1 Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, etc. were 3402.66, 3892.20 respectively. The daily percentage changes were from -0.06% (CSI 300) to 0.26% (ChiNext) [5]. 2.2 Valuation - The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 12.78, 10.90 respectively. The环比 changes were from -0.15% (German DAX) to 0.03% (CSI 500) [5]. 2.3 Risk Premium - The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of the S&P 500 was -0.47, with a环比 change of 0.05%. The German DAX was 2.44, with a环比 change of 0.09% [5]. 2.4 Fund Flows - The latest values of A - shares, the main board, etc. were -433.46, -411.02 respectively. The 5 - day average values also showed different trends [5]. 2.5 Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were 12717.69 billion, 2602.40 billion respectively. The环比 changes were from 16.02 (Small and Medium - sized Board) to 180.87 (ChiNext) [5]. 2.6 Main Contract Premium or Discount - The basis of IF, IH, IC were -8.60, -9.08, -19.93 respectively. The percentage changes were -0.22%, -0.34%, -0.34% respectively [5]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, etc. were 108.850, 105.880 respectively. The daily percentage changes were from -0.03% (TF00) to 0.05% (T01) [6]. - The R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4348%, 1.5820%, 1.6390% respectively. The daily changes in basis points were from -13.00 (R001) to 0.00 (SHIBOR - 3M) [6].