2025 年，全国规模以上工业企业利润较上年增长 0.6%，规上工业企业利润止跌 回升，核心驱动力来自新动能扩张与结构优化，工业体系正由修复走向升级。 一是利润整体企稳回升，修复具备结构支撑。全年规上工业利润同比增长 0.6%，扭转连续三年下降态势。其中，制造业利润增速回升至 5.0%，12 月当月 利润由负转正，显示盈利修复具有一定延续性，但仍呈现行业分化。二是装备 制造与高技术制造成为利润压舱石。装备制造业利润增长 7.7%，对整体利润增 长贡献最大，占比升至近四成；高技术制造业利润增长 13.3%，半导体、智能设 备、生物医药等领域利润高增，成为工业向高端跃迁的核心引擎。三是传统产 业提质升级与主体结构改善增强韧性并行。传统行业中生物基、绿色化、高附 加值方向利润显著高于行业均值。中小企业、外资企业利润由负转正，股份制 和国企降幅收窄，表明工业利润改善正从点状突破走向面上扩散。 证券研究 宏观经济周报 2026 年第六周 一、中国宏观 高频：本周 ICHI 综合景气指数仍保持在接近 100 的边界区间运行，收缩幅度较 上周有所收敛，显示经济运行总体保持平稳。从分项结构看，经济景气呈现出 分化中趋稳的特征 ...

Core Insights - Uzbekistan's foreign trade volume is projected to reach $81.2 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth of 20.7% compared to the previous year [1] - Exports are expected to total $33.81 billion, increasing by 24%, while imports are anticipated to be $47.36 billion, growing by 18.5%, resulting in a trade deficit of $13.54 billion [1] Export Summary - Total exports are estimated at $33.81 billion, with goods accounting for 71.1% and services for 28.9% [1] - Major export categories include industrial products (11.8%), food and live animals (8.7%), and chemicals (6.3%) [1] - Key export destinations are Russia ($4.33 billion, 12.8%), China ($2.47 billion, 7.3%), and Kazakhstan ($1.56 billion, 4.6%) [1] Import Summary - Total imports are projected at $42.08 billion, with goods making up 88.87% and services 11.13% [2] - Major import categories include machinery and transport equipment (33.8%), industrial products (15.3%), and chemicals (11.8%) [2] - Primary import sources are China ($14.78 billion, 31.2%), Russia ($8.67 billion, 18.3%), and Kazakhstan ($3.41 billion, 7.2%) [2]

Core Viewpoint - In December 2025, China's international balance of payments for goods and services trade showed a significant scale of imports and exports, indicating robust trade activity and a notable surplus in goods trade [1] Group 1: Trade Data Summary - The total import and export scale of goods and services trade in December 2025 reached 52,808 billion yuan [1] - Goods trade exports amounted to 26,647 billion yuan, while imports were 18,114 billion yuan, resulting in a surplus of 8,533 billion yuan [1] - Service trade exports were 3,541 billion yuan, with imports at 4,507 billion yuan, leading to a deficit of 966 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Service Trade Breakdown - Major components of service trade included travel services with an import and export scale of 2,301 billion yuan, transportation services at 2,050 billion yuan, other commercial services at 1,491 billion yuan, and telecommunications, computer, and information services at 1,025 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Dollar Value Summary - In dollar terms, the exports of goods and services trade in December 2025 were valued at 4,276 million USD, while imports were 3,204 million USD, resulting in a surplus of 1,072 million USD [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a surprising consensus between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell regarding the strength of the U.S. economy, with both acknowledging that it is performing better than many realize [2] - Trump expressed that the economy is thriving, while Powell noted that consumer sentiment appears negative despite ongoing consumer spending, indicating a disconnect between economic performance and consumer perception [2] - The U.S. trade deficit significantly widened to $56.8 billion in November, exceeding economists' expectations of $44 billion, driven by a 5% increase in imports and a 3.6% decline in exports [2] Group 2 - In the silver market, if prices fall below the Thursday low of $106.77, it would confirm a reversal pattern, potentially leading to a 2-3 day corrective trend with a typical retracement of 50% to 61.8% of the major price movement [3] - The recent minor volatility range for silver is between $90.33 and $121.67, with the corresponding 50%-61.8% retracement zone located at $106.00 to $102.30 [3] - The medium-term volatility range is identified as $70.07 to $121.67, with potential target areas for retracement forming between $95.87 and $89.78 [3]

Market Insights - The U.S. government is on the brink of a "shutdown" as the Senate failed to advance a funding bill already passed by the House, risking funding exhaustion for several federal departments by January 30 [1] - The U.S. Treasury has expanded its foreign exchange monitoring to include 10 economies, focusing on whether trade partners are intervening in currency markets through capital controls or macroprudential policies [1] - The U.S. trade deficit surged to $56.8 billion in November, nearly doubling from the previous month, with exports falling by 3.6% to $292.1 billion and imports rising by 5% to $348.9 billion, highlighting a significant imbalance between external demand and strong domestic demand [1] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.11% to 49,071.56 points, while the S&P 500 index fell by 0.13% to 6,969.01 points, and the Nasdaq Composite index decreased by 0.72% to 23,685.12 points [3] - COMEX gold futures increased by 1.32% to $5,410.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose by 1.98% to $115.78 per ounce [4] - U.S. oil futures saw a significant rise, with the main contract up by 3.64% to $65.51 per barrel, and Brent crude up by 3.43% to $69.68 per barrel [5] Economic Indicators - As of the week ending January 24, initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 209,000, slightly above expectations but lower than the previous value, while continuing claims dropped to 1.827 million, significantly below market expectations, indicating resilience in the labor market [2] - The Canadian trade deficit widened to 2.2 billion CAD in November, much higher than the expected 690 million CAD, primarily due to a 36% drop in precious metal exports [2] - The UAE Central Bank has officially approved the USDU, the world's first regulated dollar stablecoin under a central bank payment framework, marking a significant step in the integration of crypto assets with traditional financial systems [2]

Core Viewpoint - Canada's trade deficit in November 2025 reached 2.2 billion CAD, significantly exceeding market expectations of 690 million CAD and the revised previous value of 400 million CAD [1]. Group 1: Trade Performance - In November, Canada's total exports amounted to 63.94 billion CAD, a decrease of 2.8% from the revised previous month's value of 65.78 billion CAD [1]. - Total imports were 66.14 billion CAD, remaining relatively stable compared to the revised previous value of 66.18 billion CAD [1]. - The significant decline in exports, particularly in the category of metal and non-metal mineral products, was a major factor contributing to the widening trade deficit [1]. Group 2: Export Dynamics - The drop in exports was primarily driven by a 24.4% month-on-month decrease in metal and non-metal mineral products [1]. - Exports of unrefined gold, silver, platinum, and their alloys saw a substantial reduction of 36%, becoming the largest drag on overall export performance [1]. - The volatility in gold exports has been a persistent trend affecting Canada's overall export dynamics in recent months [1]. Group 3: Import Trends - The import of motor vehicles and parts also saw a simultaneous decline, further suppressing trade performance [1]. - Despite the stability in total import values, the sharp contraction in key export categories exacerbated the trade imbalance [1].

新华财经纽约1月29日电（记者刘亚南）美国商务部29日发布的数据显示，由于出口下降和进口增加， 美国2025年11月商品和服务贸易逆差金额为568亿美元，环比大幅增加约95%。 数据显示，美国11月商品和服务出口金额为2921亿美元，环比下降3.6%；当月商品和服务进口金额为 3489亿美元，环比增加5%。 数据还显示，受贵金属出口下降带动，美国11月工业原材料出口减少61亿美元，消费品和其他商品出口 分别减少31亿美元和13亿美元。受制药原料进口增加影响，11月消费品进口增加92亿美元，资本货物和 其他商品进口分别增加74亿美元和19亿美元，工业原材料进口则减少24亿美元。 主要贸易伙伴中，美国当月与欧盟商品贸易逆差大幅增加82亿美元至145亿美元。 （文章来源：新华财经） 其中，11月份商品贸易逆差增加279亿美元至869亿美元，服务贸易顺差则增加3亿美元至301亿美元。 ...

新华社纽约1月29日电（记者 刘亚南）美国商务部29日发布的数据显示，由于出口下降和进口增 加，美国2025年11月商品和服务贸易逆差金额为568亿美元，环比大幅增加约95%。 数据显示，美国11月商品和服务出口额为2921亿美元，环比下降3.6%；进口额为3489亿美元，环 比增加5.0%。 数据还显示，由于贵金属出口下降，美国11月工业原材料出口有所减少；而受制药原料进口增加影 响，当月消费品进口明显增加。 主要贸易伙伴中，美国当月与欧盟商品贸易逆差大幅增加82亿美元至145亿美元。 分析人士指出，美国贸易逆差扩大幅度超出市场预期。过去一年多来，由于美国政府多轮加征关税 导致企业抢在税率上调前集中囤货，美国贸易数据出现大幅波动。 ...

在货物贸易领域，土耳其政府提出通过提升产品和市场多元化水平、加强战略贸易伙伴关系以及完善出 口融资体系，增强出口竞争力。相关政策还包括提升"土耳其品牌"国际能见度，以提高商品出口的稳定 性和抗风险能力。 新华财经伊斯坦布尔1月29日电（记者许万虎）土耳其近期提交欧盟委员会的《经济改革计划》显示， 到2028年该国贸易逆差将小幅扩大至1020亿美元，其中出口额预计达到3085亿美元，进口额为4105亿美 元。与2025年相比，出口和进口分别增长12.8%和12.3%，贸易逆差扩大约10.9%。 报告显示，服务贸易将继续在平衡外部收支中发挥重要作用。到2028年底，土耳其旅游收入预计增至 682亿美元，较2025年增长14.8%，带动服务贸易顺差扩大至753亿美元，同比增长18.9%。其中，交通 运输作为服务顺差的重要组成部分，将通过新增基础设施投资，提高对主要出口市场的通达效率，强化 其在全球供应链中的枢纽地位。 （文章来源：新华财经） 政策文件同时强调改善经常账户结构、降低对外部融资的依赖。土耳其计划重塑进出口银行业务模式， 减轻出口企业融资担保压力，并加快对接欧盟碳边境调节机制和本国排放交易体系，推动高碳行 ...

经济观察网 据央视新闻客户端消息，当地时间1月29日，根据美国经济分析局和美国人口普查局公布的 数据，美国2025年11月国际贸易逆差为568亿美元，高于10月份的292亿美元（经修订）。美国2025年11 月份的出口额为2921亿美元，进口额为3489亿美元。 另据美国商务部同一天发布的数据显示，由于出口下降和进口增加，美国去年11月国际贸易逆差金额为 568亿美元，环比大幅增加约95%。 ...