Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent executive order signed by President Trump to adjust import tariffs and implement trade and security framework agreements with foreign trade partners, aimed at addressing national emergency and protecting the U.S. economy and national security [1][3]. Group 1: Executive Order and Tariff Adjustments - The executive order emphasizes measures to respond to a national emergency and enhance cooperation with foreign trade partners through trade and security agreements [3][10]. - The order allows for adjustments to tariffs based on agreements, including the potential reduction of certain tariffs to zero for products that cannot be produced domestically or are in insufficient supply [10]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Tariffs - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" report indicates that from mid-July to the end of August, all Federal Reserve districts reported price increases related to tariffs, with many companies passing on cost increases to customers [5][6]. - The report highlights that due to increased economic uncertainty and rising tariff rates, wage growth for many households has not kept pace with rising prices, leading to stagnant or declining consumer spending across all Federal Reserve districts [6]. Group 3: Trade Deficit and Import Trends - Preliminary data from the U.S. Department of Commerce shows that the trade deficit in July expanded to $78.3 billion, significantly higher than the adjusted June deficit of $59.1 billion, driven by increased imports ahead of new tariffs [9]. - In July, U.S. imports rose by 5.9% to $358.8 billion, while exports increased by only 0.3% to $280.5 billion, resulting in a notable rise in the overall trade deficit [9]. - Year-to-date, the trade deficit has increased by $154.3 billion, or 30.9%, compared to the same period in 2024, with imports rising by 10.9% and exports by 5.5% [9].

Group 1 - Gold prices fell by 0.4% to close at $3545.63, with a low of $3511.44 during the session, but saw a slight increase in the European market, hovering around $3548 [1] - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices rise, with the Dow Jones up 350.06 points (0.77%), the Nasdaq up 209.96 points (0.98%), and the S&P 500 up 53.82 points (0.83%) [1] - The ADP employment report for August showed an increase of 54,000 jobs, below the expected 65,000, indicating a slowdown in hiring activity and supporting the view of cooling labor market demand [1] Group 2 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 237,000, exceeding expectations and increasing by 8,000 from the previous week, further confirming the trend of labor market slowdown [3] - Traders have increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut on September 17, with a 99.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut [3] Group 3 - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny due to a criminal investigation into board member Lisa Cook, with warnings of unprecedented political interference from the Trump administration [4] - This interference could lead to rising inflation expectations, a depreciation of the dollar, and turmoil in global financial markets [4] Group 4 - President Trump signed an executive order to implement the U.S.-Japan trade agreement, which includes adjustments to tariffs and aims to prevent double taxation on certain imports from Japan [5] - Japan is committed to increasing its procurement of U.S. rice by 75% and purchasing $8 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products annually, including corn and soybeans [7] Group 5 - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is highly anticipated, with economists predicting an addition of 75,000 jobs and a slight increase in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3% [7] - Average hourly earnings are expected to remain flat month-over-month, with a year-over-year growth rate slowing from 3.9% to 3.7% [7] Group 6 - Historically, September is not a strong month for U.S. stocks, with a higher probability of declines compared to gains [8] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on September 17 could provide clarity on interest rate changes, which significantly impact stock market liquidity [8]

Market Overview - The US dollar index stabilized and rose by 0.15%, closing at 98.29 [2] - Spot gold ended a seven-day winning streak, dropping 0.38% to close at $3545.78 per ounce after reaching nearly $3510 per ounce during the day [2] - Spot silver fell below $41 per ounce, closing down 1.32% at $40.67 per ounce [2] Economic Indicators - The US ADP employment growth for August slowed significantly to 54,000, below the market expectation of 65,000, with July revised to 104,000 [3] - Initial jobless claims in the US increased by 8,000 to 237,000, the highest since June, exceeding the expected 230,000 [3] - The US trade deficit surged by 32.5% in July to $78.3 billion, higher than the expected $75.7 billion, marking a four-month high [4] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's third-ranking official indicated that gradual rate cuts would be appropriate if economic conditions align with expectations [5] - A 2026 voting member reiterated opposition to a rate cut in September, citing persistent high inflation [5] Trade Relations - The US and Japan reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with Japan committing to increase US rice purchases by 75% [3] - The US government criticized Norway's sovereign wealth fund for withdrawing investments from Caterpillar, indicating concerns over the fund's actions [4]

Group 1 - The world's largest gold ETF held 981.97 tons as of September 4, a decrease of 2.29 tons from the previous day, but a net increase of 24.60 tons from the previous month [1] - The US ISM Services PMI for August recorded at 52, exceeding expectations and previous values, driven by the strongest order growth in nearly a year; however, the employment index contracted for the third consecutive month [1] - The ADP employment number for August increased by only 54,000, significantly below expectations and previous values, while initial jobless claims rose to 237,000, the highest in six months, indicating a surge in corporate layoffs [1] Group 2 - Following the release of economic data, the market is pricing in a 97% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut, with the trade deficit in July widening to $78.3 billion, primarily due to a surge in imports driven by corporate stockpiling [1] - Federal Reserve dynamics include a nomination emphasizing the independence of the Fed, ongoing criminal investigations into a Fed governor, and comments from the Fed's third-ranking official suggesting that a rate cut may be appropriate if economic conditions align with expectations [1] - Former President Trump signed a trade executive order imposing tariffs of up to 15% on most Japanese products, adding to market uncertainties [1] Group 3 - Gold prices have recently faced profit-taking after hitting historical highs, ending a seven-day rally, with spot gold closing at $3,545.70 per ounce, as the market awaits non-farm payroll data to gauge future Federal Reserve policy directions [1] - The investment strategy for gold suggests buying on dips within the range of $3,546.6 to $3,552.6, with a stop loss at $3,541.6 and target levels set between $3,556.6 and $3,562.6 [4] - For silver, the strategy also recommends buying on dips between $40.06 and $40.56, with a stop loss at $39.96 and target levels of $40.66 to $41.16 [4]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,058, down 1.12% for the day but up 24.92% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.85% to 5,578, with a year-to-date increase of 24.86% [1] - The A-share market saw significant declines, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 4% [5] Currency and Commodity Trends - The Renminbi Index stood at 96.570, showing a 0.90% increase over the past month but a 3.33% decrease over six months [2] - Brent crude oil prices decreased by 1.51% to $67.00 per barrel, while gold prices rose by 5.02% to $3,542.73 per ounce [2] Economic Indicators - U.S. labor productivity increased by 3.3% in Q2, marking the largest gain of 2023 [9] - The U.S. trade deficit widened to $78.3 billion in July, the highest in four months, driven by a 5.9% increase in imports [12] - The ISM Services PMI rose to 52 in August, indicating expansion in the services sector [13] Company-Specific Developments - FWD Group reported a more than 100% year-on-year increase in new business annualized premium in Hong Kong and Macau [17] - New World Development's basic profit increased by 0.5% year-on-year, with a dividend payout remaining stable [19] - The company reported a significant drop in property development gross margin to 12% from 26% the previous year [20] IPO and Market Activity - Recent IPOs showed varied performance, with some stocks like Jiaxin International Resources seeing a first-day gain of 177.84% [31] - The upcoming IPO of Daxing Technology is set for September 9, 2025, with a proposed offer price of 49.5 HKD [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on September 5, 2025, including whether they will be in a state of shock consolidation, weak shock, strong shock, or wide - range shock, and also gives the corresponding support and resistance levels [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - Futures Index: On September 5, 2025, it is expected to move in a shock - consolidation pattern. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4383 and 4441 points, and support levels at 4306 and 4279 points [2]. - Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures: The T2512 contract is likely to have a strong - shock trend, with resistance levels at 108.30 and 108.43 yuan, and support levels at 108.17 and 108.10 yuan [3]. - Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures: The TL2512 contract is expected to show a strong - shock trend, with resistance levels at 117.9 and 118.2 yuan, and support levels at 117.2 and 116.8 yuan [3]. - Gold Futures: The AU2510 contract is likely to move in a shock - consolidation pattern, with resistance levels at 818.8 and 823.2 yuan/gram, and support levels at 811.2 and 806.2 yuan/gram [3]. - Silver Futures: The AG2510 contract is expected to have a weak - shock trend, with support levels at 9685 and 9600 yuan/kilogram, and resistance levels at 9851 and 9965 yuan/kilogram [3]. - Copper Futures: The CU2510 contract is likely to show a weak - shock trend, with support levels at 79500 and 79400 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 80000 and 80100 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum Futures: The AL2510 contract is expected to have a strong - shock trend, with resistance levels at 20730 and 20770 yuan/ton, and support levels at 20590 and 20500 yuan/ton [3]. - Alumina Futures: The AO2601 contract is likely to show a weak - shock trend and will test the support levels at 2950 and 2919 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 2989 and 3008 yuan/ton [3]. - Zinc Futures: The ZN2510 contract is expected to have a weak - shock trend, with support levels at 22000 and 21960 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 22160 and 22230 yuan/ton [4]. - Polysilicon Futures: The PS2511 contract is likely to move in a shock - consolidation pattern, with resistance levels at 53000 and 53700 yuan/ton, and support levels at 51200 and 50200 yuan/ton [4]. - Lithium Carbonate Futures: The LC2511 contract is likely to have a wide - range shock trend, with resistance levels at 74800 and 75800 yuan/ton, and support levels at 72000 and 71300 yuan/ton [4]. - Rebar Futures: The RB2601 contract is likely to move in a shock - consolidation pattern, with support levels at 3101 and 3080 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 3135 and 3150 yuan/ton [4]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Futures: The HC2601 contract is likely to move in a shock - consolidation pattern, with support levels at 3292 and 3275 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 3335 and 3355 yuan/ton [4]. - Iron Ore Futures: The I2601 contract is likely to have a wide - range shock trend, with resistance levels at 795 and 800 yuan/ton, and support levels at 777 and 771 yuan/ton [4]. - Coking Coal Futures: The JM2601 contract is expected to have a strong - shock trend and will attack the resistance levels at 1120 and 1138 yuan/ton, with support levels at 1090 and 1075 yuan/ton [4]. - Glass Futures: The FG601 contract is likely to have a wide - range shock trend, with support levels at 1125 and 1106 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 1152 and 1174 yuan/ton [5]. - Soda Ash Futures: The SA601 contract is likely to have a wide - range shock trend, with support levels at 1255 and 1240 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 1290 and 1300 yuan/ton [5]. - Crude Oil Futures: The SC2510 contract is likely to have a wide - range shock trend, with support levels at 478 and 473 yuan/barrel, and resistance levels at 488 and 490 yuan/barrel [5]. - Methanol Futures: The MA601 contract is expected to have a strong - shock trend and will attack the resistance levels at 2409 and 2423 yuan/ton, with support levels at 2378 and 2372 yuan/ton [5]. - Soybean Meal Futures: The M2601 contract is likely to move in a shock - consolidation pattern, with resistance levels at 3066 and 3081 yuan/ton, and support levels at 3039 and 3027 yuan/ton [5]. - Natural Rubber Futures: The RU2601 contract is expected to have a strong - shock trend and will attack the resistance levels at 16170 and 16230 yuan/ton, with support levels at 15880 and 15750 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Macro News and Trading Tips - International events include the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong - un, the US - Japan trade agreement implementation, and the US government's actions against a Norwegian sovereign wealth fund [7][8][9]. - Domestic policies involve the release of a sports industry development plan, a plan to stabilize the electronic information manufacturing industry, and a support plan for female scientific and technological talents [7][8]. - Central bank operations: The central bank will conduct a 1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse - repurchase operation on September 5, 2025 [8]. 3. Commodity Futures - related Information - Precious Metals: On September 4, 2025, international precious - metal futures generally closed lower. COMEX gold futures fell 0.91% to $3602.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.77% to $41.32 per ounce [10]. - Crude Oil: On September 4, 2025, due to OPEC's expected production increase, US crude oil futures fell 0.98% to $63.34 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures fell 1.07% to $66.88 per barrel [10]. - Base Metals: On September 4, 2025, London base metals closed lower across the board. For example, LME aluminum futures fell 1.11% to $2590.00 per ton, and LME copper futures fell 0.84% to $9891.50 per ton [11]. - Exchange Rates: On September 4, 2025, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1402, up 66 basis points, and the US dollar index rose 0.13% to 98.28 [11]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - Futures Index: On September 4, 2025, major futures index contracts such as IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 generally showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure [11][12][13]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On September 4, 2025, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The ten - year T2512 contract and the thirty - year TL2512 contract both showed a rebound trend [32][35]. - Gold Futures: On September 4, 2025, the AU2510 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, but the medium - and short - term upward space has further opened up [39]. - Silver Futures: On September 4, 2025, the AG2510 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the long - term and short - term upward trends are obvious [46]. - Copper Futures: On September 4, 2025, the CU2510 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the short - term upward momentum weakened [51]. - Aluminum Futures: On September 4, 2025, the AL2510 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased slightly [55]. - Alumina Futures: On September 4, 2025, the AO2601 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased slightly [58]. - Zinc Futures: On September 4, 2025, the ZN2510 contract showed a shock - downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased [63]. ， the PS2511 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, but the rebound was weak [67]. - Lithium Carbonate Futures: On September 4, 2025, the LC2511 contract showed a strong - shock upward trend, and the short - term stopped falling and stabilized [69]. - Rebar Futures: On September 4, 2025, the RB2601 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, and the short - term stopped falling and rebounded slightly [75]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Futures: On September 4, 2025, the HC2601 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, and the short - term continued to rebound slightly [78]. - Iron Ore Futures: On September 4, 2025, the I2601 contract showed a strong - shock upward trend, and the short - term continued to rebound strongly [82]. - Coking Coal Futures: On September 4, 2025, the JM2601 contract showed a shock - downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased [87]. - Glass Futures: On September 4, 2025, the FG601 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, and the short - term continued to rebound slightly [92]. - Soda Ash Futures: On September 4, 2025, the SA601 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, but the rebound was obviously weak [97]. - Crude Oil Futures: On September 4, 2025, the SC2510 contract showed a weak - shock downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased significantly [101]. - Methanol Futures: On September 4, 2025, the MA601 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased slightly [105]. - Soybean Meal Futures: On September 4, 2025, the M2601 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the short - term rebound momentum weakened [108]. - Natural Rubber Futures: On September 4, 2025, the RU2601 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, and the short - term continued to rebound slightly [110].

Group 1 - The U.S. has signed a trade agreement with Japan, implementing a 15% baseline tariff on nearly all Japanese goods exported to the U.S. [3] - The new tariff framework aims to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with Japan and improve overall trade balance [3] - Japan will increase its procurement of U.S. rice by 75% and commit to purchasing $8 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products annually [3] Group 2 - Japan will allow U.S. manufactured passenger cars to be sold in its market without additional testing, adhering to U.S. safety certification standards [3] - The agreement includes commitments for Japan to purchase U.S. manufactured commercial aircraft and defense equipment [3] - Key sectors for market access include manufacturing, aerospace, agriculture, food, energy, automotive, and industrial products [3] Group 3 - Gold futures are currently trading at approximately 815.10 yuan per gram, with a slight decline of 0.12% [1] - The trading range for gold futures shows a high of 817.76 yuan per gram and a low of 811.36 yuan per gram [1] - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified between 823 yuan per gram and 860 yuan per gram, while support levels are between 781 yuan per gram and 850 yuan per gram [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has officially implemented a trade agreement with Japan, which includes measures to adjust tariffs and prevent double taxation on previously taxed Japanese imports [1] - Japan is committed to increasing its procurement of U.S. rice by 75% as part of the trade agreement [1] - The U.S. trade deficit widened significantly in July, reaching $78.3 billion, which is a notable increase from the revised $59.1 billion deficit in June and higher than market expectations [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that U.S. companies increased imports ahead of new tariffs announced by President Trump, contributing to the trade deficit reaching a four-month high [2] - In July, U.S. imports rose to $358.8 billion, a month-on-month increase of 5.9%, while exports saw a modest increase of 0.3% to $280.5 billion [2] - The total trade deficit for goods and services increased by 32.5% in July, amounting to $78.3 billion, with a significant rise in the goods trade deficit [2]

Group 1 - The White House announced the implementation of a trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan, which includes a 15% baseline tariff on nearly all Japanese goods exported to the U.S. [2][4] - Specific sectors such as automotive, aerospace, generic drugs, and natural resources will have differentiated tariff treatments under the new framework [2][4]. - The new tariff framework aims to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with Japan and promote a more balanced overall trade situation [4]. Group 2 - Japan is committed to increasing its procurement of U.S. agricultural products, including a 75% increase in U.S. rice purchases and an annual total of $8 billion in various U.S. agricultural goods [4]. - The Japanese government will facilitate the sale of U.S.-made passenger cars in Japan without additional testing, as long as they meet U.S. safety certification standards [4]. - Japan plans to purchase U.S.-manufactured commercial aircraft and defense equipment, providing significant market access for U.S. manufacturers [4]. Group 3 - The Trump administration is seeking a swift Supreme Court ruling to overturn a previous court decision that deemed the imposition of tariffs on multiple countries illegal [5]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that delaying the ruling could lead to significant financial chaos, with tariffs collected potentially reaching $750 billion to $1 trillion by mid-2026 [5]. - As of August 24, U.S. companies have paid over $210 billion in tariffs that have been ruled illegal, which may require refunds if the appellate court's decision is upheld [5]. Group 4 - The U.S. trade deficit widened significantly in July, reaching $78.3 billion, driven by increased imports ahead of the anticipated new tariffs [6]. - Analysts suggest that businesses imported more goods and materials in anticipation of the new tariffs, contributing to the highest trade deficit in four months [6]. - The expectation of increased tariffs also led to a surge in gold shipments, further boosting overall U.S. imports [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a new U.S.-Japan trade agreement, which includes a 15% baseline tariff on nearly all Japanese goods entering the U.S. market, aimed at reducing the trade deficit and balancing trade relations between the two countries [4][6]. Group 1: U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement - The U.S. will impose a 15% baseline tariff on almost all Japanese imports [4]. - Specific sectors such as automobiles, aerospace products, generics, and natural resources that cannot be sourced domestically will have differentiated tariff treatments [4]. - The new tariff framework is expected to help reduce the U.S. trade deficit with Japan and promote a more balanced overall trade situation [6]. Group 2: Market Access for U.S. Products in Japan - Japan will provide significant market access opportunities for U.S. manufacturers in key sectors including aerospace, agriculture, food, energy, and automobiles [7]. - Japan aims to increase its procurement of U.S. rice by 75% under the "minimum market access" rice plan, with total annual purchases of U.S. agricultural products reaching $8 billion [7]. - U.S.-made passenger cars that meet U.S. safety standards will be allowed to sell in Japan without additional testing [7]. Group 3: Legal and Economic Context - The Trump administration is appealing a court ruling that deemed the imposition of tariffs on multiple countries illegal, arguing it undermines the president's ability to conduct foreign policy and protect national security [8]. - As of August 24, U.S. companies have paid over $210 billion in tariffs that may be deemed illegal, with potential refunds causing significant disruption if the ruling is upheld [8]. - The U.S. trade deficit widened to $78.3 billion in July, significantly higher than the adjusted $59.1 billion in June, driven by increased imports ahead of the new tariffs [10].