1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market may continue to fluctuate within a range in the short - term. The increase in tariffs by Trump has raised corporate costs, and if the tariff scope expands or negotiations fail, it will accelerate inflation and strengthen the inflation - hedging property of gold. Although the market focuses on the September interest rate cut expectation, the core inflation has not continuously heated up, and the real interest rate is difficult to decline, so the gold price may be trapped in a range - bound oscillation in the short - term. In the long - term, the transmission of tariffs to the end - user will increase inflation stickiness, and the recovery of easing expectations will be beneficial to the gold price. The expansion of the US fiscal and trade double deficits and the protracted frictions will weaken the US dollar's credit and support the central bank's gold - buying demand. It is recommended to buy gold on dips and be cautious about the correction risk of silver [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 781.7 yuan/gram, with a month - on - month increase of 4.68; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 9271 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 2. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 211,239 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 8952; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver are 467,534 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,142. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 147,538 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 4931; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract are 135,033 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 8235. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 28,857 kg, with no change; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1,204,466 kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 6610 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 775.7 yuan/gram, with a month - on - month increase of 4; the spot price of silver is 9200 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 31. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 6 yuan/gram, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.68; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 71 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 33 [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 948.5 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.29; the silver ETF holdings are 14,694.95 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 124.34. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 202,968 contracts, with a week - on - week increase of 988; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC are 58,521 contracts, with a week - on - week decrease of 4879. The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, with an increase of 54.84; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, with a decrease of 21.4. The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, with an increase of 54.83; the global total annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, with a decrease of 47.4 [2] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.25%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.14; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.21%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.11. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 19.24%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.26; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 19.24%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.28 [2] 3.5 Industry News - An informed source said that US Treasury Secretary Bessent privately advised President Trump not to try to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Bessent believes that apart from the overall economic factors, Fed officials have signaled that they may cut interest rates twice by the end of the year. The US House of Representatives passed the 2026 fiscal year defense appropriation bill with 221 votes in favor and 209 against, with a total amount of about $832 billion. President Trump posted on social media that three Iranian nuclear facilities had been "completely destroyed". US Treasury Secretary Bessent, who is visiting Japan, said that the two countries could reach a "good" trade agreement, but hinted that the process might take more time. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 4.7%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 39.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 58%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 2.7% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that the US June PPI recorded a month-on-month change of 0%, which is below the market expectation of 0.2%, providing support for silver prices [1][2] - The year-on-year PPI for June was reported at 2.3%, also lower than the expected 2.5%, indicating some inflationary pressure remains despite the stable month-on-month figures [2] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book revealed that tariffs are causing cost pressures for businesses, leading to price increases, which could support silver as a hedge against inflation [2] Group 2 - The silver T+D price closed at 9115 yuan per kilogram, with a daily increase of 0.16%, and the trading range for the day was between 9050 and 9147 yuan per kilogram [1][3] - The technical analysis suggests that silver T+D is expected to continue its upward trend after a period of consolidation, with resistance levels identified at 9200-9300 yuan and support levels at 8900-9000 yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are significantly influenced by market reactions to U.S. President Trump's comments regarding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, alongside economic indicators such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the overall monetary policy outlook [1][2][4][5]. Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced dramatic volatility, initially dropping to $3319.58 per ounce due to a strong dollar, before surging over $50 to reach a three-week high of $3377.17 following news of Trump's potential dismissal of Powell [1][2]. - Trump's subsequent denial of the dismissal plan led to a narrowing of gold's gains, closing at $3347.38, up 0.68% [2]. - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.25% to 98.34, influenced by Trump's comments, which alleviated concerns over the dollar's credibility [1]. - The U.S. bond market reacted similarly, with the 30-year Treasury yield peaking at 5.08% before settling at 5.014%, while the 10-year yield fell to 4.466% [1]. - The June PPI data showed no month-over-month increase, contrasting with a 0.3% rise in May, indicating subdued inflationary pressures that support gold prices [4]. - Year-over-year, the PPI increased by 2.3%, suggesting ongoing inflation concerns, particularly due to tariffs [4]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains a critical factor for gold prices, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts influenced by inflation forecasts and economic growth projections [5]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently oscillating within a key trading range of $3300 to $3360, indicating ongoing market contention [7]. - Short-term movements have seen gold test lower levels before rebounding, suggesting a potential for further volatility as traders await a breakout direction [7].

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is undergoing a transformation, prompting investors and policymakers to act cautiously amid uncertain policies and market volatility. Despite these challenges, major economies remain resilient, and central bank interest rate cuts are expected to create opportunities in global equities [1]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The U.S. real GDP growth is projected to slow from nearly 3% in 2023-2024 to 1.6% in 2025, primarily due to weakening private demand and the impact of tariffs on prices and consumer confidence [2]. - Average tariffs of approximately 15% are expected to cause economic losses and a temporary rise in inflation, with the Federal Reserve anticipated to cut interest rates three times in the latter half of 2025 [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The rising geopolitical tensions, exacerbated by U.S. tariffs and reduced commitments to European security, may lead to increased unity in Europe as countries seek new trade agreements and recognize the advantages of collective negotiation [3]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - Despite a bleak growth outlook, corporate performance is expected to remain strong, supporting a slightly aggressive asset allocation and inflation-hedging strategies. The focus will be on global equities, commodities, gold, and infrastructure investments for stable cash flows [4]. - The changing correlation between the dollar, stocks, and bonds highlights the importance of diversifying currency allocations [4]. Group 4: Bond Market Insights - Investors are likely to demand higher premiums on U.S. Treasuries due to unclear trade policies and rising public debt. The central bank's interest rate cuts will support short-term bonds, benefiting European and emerging market bonds [5]. Group 5: Stock Market Considerations - Stocks may record low single-digit returns in the latter half of the year, with industry selection becoming crucial. The attractiveness of the European market is expected to benefit small-cap stocks, with a focus on domestic-driven sectors to mitigate tariff risks [6]. Group 6: Emerging Markets Opportunities - Emerging market stocks are anticipated to gain traction in the latter half of 2025, with India and ASEAN becoming key beneficiaries of global supply chain shifts. The "Make in India" initiative is attracting multinational companies, particularly in defense and IT sectors [7]. Group 7: Alternative Investments - The challenging geopolitical environment is prompting investors to diversify into private and alternative assets, with private debt and infrastructure expected to remain attractive due to strong direct lending and fundraising [8].

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has broken out of its previous trading range, reaching over $123,000, driven by favorable policies and significant capital inflows [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent surge in Bitcoin's price is attributed to a combination of policy support, including the upcoming stablecoin legislation and relaxed regulatory stances allowing banks to offer digital asset custody services [1] - A short squeeze has led to billions in liquidated short positions, contributing to a 15% increase in Bitcoin's price over the past week [1][4] - Institutional investors and companies are heavily accumulating Bitcoin, with record low outflows from exchanges indicating a lack of sellers to meet demand [4][5] Group 2: Institutional Involvement - Over $2.7 billion flowed into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs last week, marking one of the highest weekly inflows since their launch in January 2024 [5][7] - BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust has surpassed $85 billion in market value, with predictions of reaching $100 billion soon [5] - New companies are entering the market, raising funds to purchase cryptocurrencies, indicating a shift towards institutional participation in the current bull market [7] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $150,000 soon, with some suggesting a potential target of $250,000 by year-end [4] - The demand for Bitcoin futures remains strong, with open interest reaching a record $86.3 billion, reflecting bullish sentiment among traders [7][8] - Despite the positive momentum, there are concerns about market vulnerabilities, particularly related to geopolitical tensions and potential shifts in risk appetite on Wall Street [8]

Core Insights - The U.S. is undergoing significant changes in cryptocurrency regulation, with the House of Representatives set to vote on three key bills: the GENIUS Act, the CLARITY Act, and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act, marking a comprehensive upgrade of the regulatory framework for digital assets [1][3] Legislative Developments - The GENIUS Act aims to provide a legal framework for cryptocurrency innovation [3] - The CLARITY Act focuses on clarifying the regulatory boundaries for digital assets [3] - The Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act emphasizes privacy protection concerning central bank digital currencies [3] - These legislative initiatives reflect a fundamental shift in the U.S. government's attitude towards the cryptocurrency industry, indicating a move towards collaboration rather than mere restriction [3] Market Reactions - Bitcoin has surpassed $121,000, with a 24-hour increase of 2.93%, indicating strong market confidence in the long-term value of cryptocurrencies [3] - The recent legislative changes are seen as a positive influence on digital asset prices [3] Institutional Investment Trends - Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $2.72 billion last week, maintaining a streak of five consecutive weeks of net inflows [4] - BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF IBIT recorded a single-week net inflow of $1.76 billion, with total historical net inflows reaching $54.4 billion, showcasing sustained institutional interest in cryptocurrency investments [4] Inflation and Cryptocurrency Demand - Adjustments in inflation expectations by the Bank of Japan may reflect ongoing global inflation pressures, which could enhance the demand for cryptocurrencies as a hedge against inflation [6] - The changing U.S. policy environment and upcoming inflation data are expected to influence the dollar's performance, further highlighting the hedging attributes of cryptocurrencies [6] Technological Advantages of XBIT Platform - The XBIT decentralized exchange platform is positioned to leverage its core advantages in the evolving regulatory landscape, utilizing a fully decentralized architecture that ensures transaction transparency and immutability [8] - The platform's anonymity features protect user privacy, while its cost-reduction mechanisms provide near-free trading experiences, lowering barriers for users [8] - As the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory environment matures, XBIT aims to offer secure, efficient, and convenient trading experiences, contributing to the advancement of the digital economy [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the international gold market, with prices rising to $3452 per ounce due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and then dropping back to around $3300 due to a strong dollar, highlight the dual support for domestic gold prices, which have remained stable around 980 RMB per gram [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global central banks continue to accumulate gold, with the World Gold Council reporting that 290 tons were purchased in the first quarter of this year, and China's central bank has been increasing its gold reserves for 18 consecutive months, with gold now accounting for nearly 15% of its foreign exchange reserves [3]. - The recent geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, have reinforced gold's role as a "hedge against panic," as investors tend to flock to gold during times of uncertainty [6]. Group 2: Inflation and Asset Stability - Despite a decrease in global inflation, the volatility in energy and food prices suggests that gold remains a valuable asset, capable of withstanding the long-term dilution of currency due to its status as a physical asset [7]. - Gold serves as a stabilizer for household assets, providing a safety net during market downturns, and can be a means of wealth transfer across generations, as it retains value over time [7][8]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Various methods for investing in gold are available, including physical gold, gold ETFs, and gold stocks, each catering to different risk appetites and investment strategies [10][11][12]. - Physical gold is suitable for conservative investors who prefer tangible assets, while gold ETFs offer low entry barriers and liquidity for those seeking convenience [10][11]. - Gold stocks and thematic funds can provide higher returns during price increases but come with greater volatility and risks associated with company performance and market conditions [12].

Group 1 - The price of paper gold continues to show an upward trend, currently at 767.96 CNY per gram with a daily increase of 0.53% [1] - The fluctuation range has narrowed to 763.29-768.58 CNY per gram, indicating intense competition between bulls and bears at key technical levels [1] - The market's expectation for a July interest rate cut has significantly decreased following Fed Chairman Powell's warning about tariffs potentially raising summer inflation [1] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's tariff policy is a core variable affecting the current market [3] - Fed research indicates that tariff increases may raise price levels through imported inflation, which will directly impact the monetary policy path [3] - The technical analysis shows a typical range-bound pattern, with resistance at 793-803 CNY per gram and support at 739-749 CNY per gram [3]

Core Viewpoint - Germany and Italy are considering repatriating their gold reserves due to distrust in the U.S. as a custodian and rising geopolitical risks [1][4][10] Group 1: Gold Reserves and Custodianship - Germany and Italy hold the second and third largest gold reserves globally, with 3,352 tons and 2,452 tons respectively, relying heavily on the New York Federal Reserve for storage [4] - Approximately 37% of Germany's gold, around 1,236 tons, is stored in the U.S., reflecting historical reliance on the U.S. as a key gold trading hub [4][15] - Recent geopolitical uncertainties and U.S. policy unpredictability have sparked public debates in Europe about the safety of storing gold abroad [4][8] Group 2: Political Support for Repatriation - In Germany, there is growing political support across the spectrum for repatriating gold, with calls for a reassessment of the safety of storing gold overseas [8][10] - The European Taxpayers Association has urged German and Italian authorities to reconsider their dependence on the Federal Reserve for gold storage [10] Group 3: Central Bank Trends - A recent World Gold Council survey indicates that 95% of respondents expect an increase in global central bank gold reserves over the next 12 months, the highest level since the survey began in 2018 [1][13] - About 7% of central banks plan to increase domestic gold storage, the highest level since the pandemic began, driven by concerns over access to gold in crisis situations [13][14] - The trend of repatriating gold is gaining momentum, with countries like India and Nigeria also moving to store gold domestically [13][15] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Gold Demand - Gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset globally, following the dollar, due to rising geopolitical risks and inflation concerns [15] - Since January, gold prices have increased by 30%, doubling over the past two years, as global uncertainty drives demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [15][16] - The sentiment among central banks is strong, with many viewing gold as a hedge against inflation and a reliable asset during crises [15][16]

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis of Spot Gold - The military conflict between Israel and Iran has significantly increased geopolitical risks, leading to a surge in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, pushing spot gold prices above $3400, marking a historical high for weekly closing prices [2] - Investors are adjusting their portfolios to increase the proportion of gold to mitigate overall risk due to rising risk premiums in traditional assets like stocks and bonds [3] - Gold's low correlation with other assets provides effective risk diversification during market volatility, further boosting demand for spot gold [4] Group 2: Supply Side Analysis - The Middle East is not a major gold production area, so the current geopolitical situation has minimal direct impact on gold supply [5] - However, if the conflict expands to key gold production or trading regions, it could disrupt mining, transportation, and trading, affecting market supply [6] - Increased tensions may also hinder global trade and logistics, potentially impacting the efficiency of physical gold delivery and supply, although no extreme situations have been reported yet [7] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation fosters a cautious and worried market sentiment, which enhances the focus on gold's safe-haven properties, supporting gold prices [8] - Any signs of conflict de-escalation could quickly shift market sentiment, leading to downward pressure on gold prices [9] Group 4: Macroeconomic Impact - The conflict may trigger a chain reaction in the global economy, with rising oil prices potentially causing imported inflation and increasing inflationary pressures on countries [10] - In response to inflation expectations, investors may increase their gold allocations, driving prices higher [10] - Global economic growth could be suppressed due to the Middle East situation, prompting central banks to adopt loose monetary policies, which would lower opportunity costs of holding gold and enhance its appeal as a store of value [10] Group 5: Technical Analysis of Spot Gold - As of the latest market data, spot gold prices are around $3387.50 per ounce, remaining within a consolidation phase [11] - A trading strategy suggests monitoring for a breakout above $3396.50 to go long or a breakdown below $3382.00 to go short, with stop-loss and take-profit set at $10 [11] Group 6: Technical Analysis of Spot Silver - Spot silver prices have recently broken above their consolidation range, currently quoted at $37.130 [13] - Technical analysis indicates a high probability of continued price increases, with recommendations to wait for a pullback to around $36.770 to go long, setting stop-loss at $36.320 and take-profit at $37.220 [13]