1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel products, the macro - geopolitical situation boosts energy prices, providing support. The five major steel products continue to reduce inventory. However, the demand for rebar in the off - season is under pressure, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the next two weeks. Hot - rolled coil demand shows some resilience, and its inventory turns from increasing to decreasing. Steel prices still face the pressure of short - term supply - demand weakening, and the strategy is to be bearish on rebounds [3]. - For iron ore, the supply from Australia and Brazil rebounds, and the arrival volume increases. Currently, steel mills' profits are good, and the daily output of molten iron increases. But as the off - season deepens, the terminal demand weakens, and the supply increment may be greater than the demand increment. It is expected to oscillate in a range, and be bearish on rebounds [4]. - For coking coal and coke, as some previously减产 mines resume production, the production of coking coal increases slightly. The fourth round of price cuts for coke starts, and the daily output of molten iron increases, giving some support to coking coal and coke. The prices are expected to stabilize in the short term [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Geopolitical situations disturb the market, and steel prices oscillate at a low level. The energy price increase provides support for commodities. The industry continues to reduce inventory, with rebar inventory reduction slowing down and hot - rolled coil inventory turning from increasing to decreasing. Market transactions are concentrated in the low - price area [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: National rebar weekly output is 212.18 tons (up 2.22% month - on - month, down 7.96% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil weekly output is 325.45 tons (up 0.25% month - on - month, up 1.47% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace output increases while electric furnace output decreases [16][18][23]. - **Operating Rate**: The national blast furnace operating rate is 83.82% (up 0.49% month - on - month, up 2.16% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate is 70.93% (down 4.16% month - on - month, up 0.75% year - on - year) [28]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit is + 155 yuan/ton (up 14.81% week - on - week, up 59.79% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit is + 100 yuan/ton (up 66.67% week - on - week, up 4.17% year - on - year) [32]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption is 219.19 tons (down 0.35% month - on - month, down 7.04% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption is 330.69 tons (up 3.38% month - on - month, up 3.68% year - on - year) [37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory is 551.07 tons (down 1.26% month - on - month, down 28.95% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory is 340.17 tons (down 1.52% month - on - month, down 18.15% year - on - year) [41][46]. - **Downstream**: Real estate sales volume increases slightly at a low level, and land market transactions decrease month - on - month. In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales increase both month - on - month and year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipment from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil is 3009.8 tons (up 8.81% month - on - month, up 6.25% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports is 2562.7 tons (up 7.47% month - on - month, up 3.63% year - on - year) [60]. - **Demand**: The daily output of molten iron is 242.18 tons (up 0.57 tons month - on - month, up 2.24 tons year - on - year), and the port dredging volume is 313.56 tons (up 4.09% month - on - month, up 3.21% year - on - year) [65]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports is 13894.16 tons (down 0.28% month - on - month, down 6.92% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises is 8936.24 tons (up 1.56% month - on - month, down 3.02% year - on - year) [71]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines is 84.49% (up 0.93% month - on - month, down 3.41% year - on - year), the operating rate of coal washing plants is 61.34% (up 6.94% month - on - month, down 7.86% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is 9.52 tons (down 12.31% month - on - month, down 38.27% year - on - year) [77]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants is - 23 yuan/ton (up 23 yuan/ton month - on - month, down 25 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate is 73.42% (down 0.73% month - on - month, up 0.12% year - on - year) [85]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Independent coking plant coking coal inventory is 665.62 tons (down 0.55% month - on - month, down 10.82% year - on - year), steel mill coking coal inventory is 774.45 tons (up 0.04% month - on - month, up 2.37% year - on - year), and coking coal port inventory is 303.31 tons (down 2.79% month - on - month, up 29.34% year - on - year) [91]. - **Coke Inventory**: Independent coking plant coke inventory is 80.93 tons (down 7.31% month - on - month, up 126.38% year - on - year), steel mill coke inventory is 634.2 tons (down 1.34% month - on - month, up 14.04% year - on - year), and coke port inventory is 203.11 tons (unchanged month - on - month, down 0.12% year - on - year) [97]. - **Spot Price**: The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi is 1170 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week, down 730 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang is 1030 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month, down 720 yuan/ton year - on - year) [103]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil shrinks, and the 10 - 1 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coil widens slightly. The 9 - 1 spread of coking coal and coke shrinks, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar widens slightly [105][111].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last week, the output of rebar increased after a decline, the factory inventory decreased for the fourth consecutive week, the social inventory decreased for the fifteenth consecutive week, and the apparent demand decreased for the third consecutive week. Currently, both supply and demand of steel products are weakening, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the medium term [5][33] - The trading strategy is to suggest waiting and seeing [6][34] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - As of June 20, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,070 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the spot price in Tianjin was 3,220 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous trading day [10] Important Market Information - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue was 9.6623 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%. Among them, the national tax revenue was 7.9156 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%; the non-tax revenue was 1.7467 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. The national general public budget expenditure was 11.2953 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [15] Supply - Side Situation - As of June 20, 2025, 247 steel mills had a blast furnace operating rate of 83.82%, a month - on - month increase of 0.41% and a year - on - year increase of 1.01%; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.79%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year increase of 1.03%; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87% and a year - on - year increase of 7.36%; the daily average pig iron output was 2.4218 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.57 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.24 million tons [5][32] - On June 20, Tangshan steel mills received a notice that from June 21 - 30, they would implement emission reduction measures, including a 30% reduction in sintering machine production, adjusted converter production rhythms, and blast furnaces adjusting production loads according to the converter rhythm [31][32] Demand - Side Situation - As of May 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 51, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%; the current value of the Lang Steel: Steel Distribution Industry Purchasing Managers' Index was 47.5, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% [21] Inventory - Side Situation - Last week, the rebar factory inventory decreased for the fourth consecutive week, and the social inventory decreased for the fifteenth consecutive week [5][33] Fundamental Analysis - The average national profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 23 yuan/ton; the average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke was - 3 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke was 31 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke was - 68 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke was 49 yuan/ton [32] 后市展望 - Currently, both supply and demand of steel products are weakening, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the medium term [5][33] Operation Strategy - The trading strategy is to suggest waiting and seeing [6][34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The five major steel products continued to experience a slight reduction in inventory. Building materials' inventory reduction continued to slow down, while plates saw a slight reduction. Among them, the factory and social inventories of rebar and wire rod continued to decline slightly, the factory and social inventories of hot-rolled coil and cold-rolled coil turned to a slight reduction, and the factory and social inventories of medium and heavy plates both increased [7]. - The profit of blast furnace steel mills has recovered, with the operating rate and capacity utilization rate increasing month-on-month, and the daily average molten iron production increasing slightly. The operating rate of electric furnaces decreased due to losses. The output of the five major steel products increased month-on-month, with significant increases in the output of rebar and wire rod, and a slight month-on-month increase in the output of hot-rolled coil. Driven by profits, steel mills still lack the motivation to reduce production [7]. - The apparent demand of the five major steel products increased month-on-month. Among them, the decline in the apparent demand of rebar slowed down, and the apparent demand of hot-rolled coil increased significantly month-on-month. Currently, the impact of seasonal factors on demand still exists, and there is still marginal weakening pressure on demand [7]. - Recently, geopolitical issues have disrupted the international energy market, boosting coal prices and causing the prices of the black series to stop falling and fluctuate at low levels. In the industry, Tangshan recently received a production restriction notice, which will affect steel supply. However, since steel mills still have overall profits, the production reduction efforts of steel mills are limited, and the reduction in steel output is not obvious. As it enters the consumption off-season, the elasticity of terminal demand is insufficient, and the inventory reduction is gradually slowing down. Currently, there is no obvious contradiction between steel supply and demand, but consumption is marginally weakening, and the supply-demand contradiction is gradually accumulating. In the short term, the market will continue to fluctuate following macro news, but the demand outlook is expected to be weak, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate at low levels [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Week - Weekly Viewpoints and Strategies - **Inventory**: The five major steel products continued to experience a slight reduction in inventory, with different trends for different varieties [7]. - **Supply**: The profit of blast furnace steel mills recovered, and the output of the five major steel products increased month-on-month. Driven by profits, steel mills still lack the motivation to reduce production [7]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand of the five major steel products increased month-on-month, but seasonal factors still affected demand, and there was marginal weakening pressure [7]. - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical issues affected the black series prices, and the production restriction notice in Tangshan had limited impact on steel supply reduction. Entering the consumption off-season, the inventory reduction slowed down, and steel prices continued to fluctuate at low levels [7]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the pressure around 3020 for the RB2510 contract and the repair of the basis between futures and spot [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - As of June 20, 2025, the RB2510 contract closed at 2992 yuan/ton, and the HC2510 contract closed at 3116 yuan/ton. The Shanghai rebar basis was 98 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot-rolled coil basis was 84 yuan/ton. The RB10 - 01 contract spread closed at 7 yuan/ton, and the HC10 - 01 contract spread closed at 9 yuan/ton. The Shanghai spot screw - coil spread was - 110 yuan/ton, and the main contract screw - coil spread was - 124 yuan/ton [16][34]. 3.3 Inventory - As of the week of June 20, the total inventory of the five major steel products was 1338.89 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15.67 million tons. Among them, the rebar inventory was 551.07 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.01 million tons; the hot-rolled coil inventory was 340.17 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.24 million tons; the wire rod inventory was 94.09 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.64 million tons; the cold-rolled coil inventory was 172.81 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.41 million tons; and the medium and heavy plate inventory was 180.75 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.63 million tons [9]. 3.4 Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.41 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate was 90.79%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.21 percentage points; the profitability rate was 59.31%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.87 percentage points; the daily average molten iron production was 242.18 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 0.57 million tons. The operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces was 70.93%, with a month-on-month decrease of 3.08 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate was 54.54%, with a month-on-month decrease of 2.19 percentage points; the scrap consumption was 252.27 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 1.71 million tons. The total output of the five major steel products was 868.51 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 9.66 million tons. Among them, the output of rebar and wire rod increased significantly, and the output of hot-rolled coil increased slightly month-on-month [9]. 3.5 Demand - The apparent demand of the five major steel products increased month-on-month. The apparent demand of rebar decreased at a slower rate, and the apparent demand of hot-rolled coil increased significantly month-on-month. The daily average trading volume of traders (MA5) was 9.42 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.47 million tons; the Shanghai wire rod procurement volume was 16,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 200 tons; the apparent demand of rebar was 219.19 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.78 million tons; the apparent demand of hot-rolled coil was 330.69 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 10.81 million tons; the apparent demand of wire rod was 88.7 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.81 million tons; the apparent demand of cold-rolled coil was 89.76 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.53 million tons; the apparent demand of medium and heavy plates was 155.84 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.29 million tons [7][9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The steel market is currently in a state where supply - demand contradictions are not significant. For rebar, as the building materials enter the off - season, the production, sales, and inventory are continuously declining, and the weak off - season demand will suppress steel prices. For hot - rolled coils, the profit of plates is better than that of building materials, with strong production and sales resilience. Although there is a slight decline in exports, it remains at a high level in the short term. Later, attention should be paid to Sino - US tariff negotiations and domestic demand stimulus policies [1][2]. 3. Section Summaries Market Analysis - **Price**: This week, the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly. As of Friday's close, the rebar main contract 2510 closed at 2992 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract 2510 closed at 3116 yuan/ton [1][5]. - **Supply**: On June 19, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82%, a 0.41 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 1.01 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.79%, a 0.21 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 1.02 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, a 0.87 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 7.36 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4218 million tons, a decrease of 0.57 million tons from last week but an increase of 2.24 million tons year - on - year. The actual output of the five major steel products this period was 8.6851 million tons, a 96,600 - ton increase from last week. Among them, rebar output was 2.1218 million tons, a 46,100 - ton increase from last week, and hot - rolled coil output was 3.2545 million tons, an 8000 - ton increase from last week [1][25]. - **Consumption**: The apparent demand for the five major steel products this period was 8.8418 million tons, a 160,800 - ton increase from last week. Among them, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.1919 million tons, a decrease of 7800 tons from last week, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 3.3069 million tons, an increase of 108,100 tons from last week [1][29]. - **Inventory**: This week, the total inventory of the five major steel products reached 13.3889 million tons, a decrease of 156,700 tons from last week. The rebar inventory was 5.5107 million tons, a decrease of 70,100 tons from last week, and the total inventory of hot - rolled coils was 3.4017 million tons, a decrease of 52,400 tons from last week [2][32]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The strategy for unilateral trading is to expect the market to move in a range - bound manner. - **Other Strategies**: There are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The blast furnace has resumed production, and overall steel production has increased. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils has risen due to overseas export resilience, while that of rebar has slightly declined. Steel inventories are still being depleted, but the depletion rate of rebar has slowed down. - As the off - season for demand approaches, the apparent demand is expected to continue to weaken. The funds available at downstream construction sites have decreased, leading to a further weakening of building material demand, while the high - frequency data of steel exports have rebounded. - Although the blast furnace output has reached its peak, the blast furnace profit is relatively high, and some blast furnaces may resume production according to the production schedule. The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have improved recently, with a short - term small - scale rebound. - After entering the off - season for demand, contradictions will accumulate, and there is a risk of triggering a negative feedback. Recently, due to the outbreak of overseas geopolitical conflicts, energy prices have generally risen, causing coking coal and coke to continue to rebound. Currently, the market is still trading on the logic of profit contraction, so steel prices will remain range - bound at the bottom in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term trend of steel prices is downward [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook - **Data Summary** - **Supply**: This week, the small - sample production of rebar was 2.1218 million tons (+46,100 tons), and that of hot - rolled coils was 3.2545 million tons (+8,000 tons). The daily average of hot metal from 247 blast furnaces was 2.4218 million tons (+5,700 tons). The capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 31.073 yuan/ton. The cost of electric arc furnaces in East China during peak hours was about 3,396 yuan/ton (converted to the futures price), with a profit of - 303.18 yuan/ton; during off - peak hours, the cost was about 3,231 yuan/ton (converted to the theoretical price), and the profit of third - tier rebar in East China during off - peak hours was - 138 yuan/ton. The overall steel supply is relatively high [4]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar this week was 2.1919 million tons (-7,800 tons), and that for small - sample hot - rolled coils was 3.3069 million tons (+108,100 tons). The apparent demand for steel has rebounded. Recently, the availability of funds for downstream housing construction projects has declined, but steel exports have remained highly resilient, leading to an expansion of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. From January to May, the growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment decreased month - on - month, and the increment of domestic project investment was insufficient. In May, the sales, new construction, and completion areas of housing were all in negative growth, and the decline rate widened. The official manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, and the Caixin manufacturing PMI was 48.3%. The official manufacturing PMI expanded, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI contracted. In May, China's automobile production increased by 11.67% year - on - year, and exports increased by 22.14% year - on - year. The production growth rate of household appliances slowed down in April, while the production schedule of the three major white goods in June increased by 7.3% year - on - year. The Markit manufacturing PMI data in the US in May was 52.3, a new high since February. The new order index reached a new high since February 2024. The initial jobless claims increased last week. The preliminary value of the eurozone manufacturing PMI in May was 49.4, higher than market expectations, a new high in 33 months but still below the break - even line [4]. - **Inventory**: For rebar, the mill inventory decreased by 5,700 tons, the social inventory decreased by 64,400 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 70,100 tons. For hot - rolled coils, the mill inventory decreased by 100 tons, the social inventory decreased by 52,300 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 52,400 tons. The mill inventory decreased by 13,000 tons month - on - month, the social inventory decreased by 143,700 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 155,700 tons [4]. - **Outlook and Trading Strategies** - **Outlook**: With the arrival of the off - season for demand, the apparent demand will continue to weaken. There is a risk of negative feedback after entering the off - season. Steel prices will remain range - bound at the bottom in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term trend is downward [7]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - sided**: Steel prices will remain range - bound at the bottom, and it is recommended to wait and see. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to continue holding the short position on the spread between hot - rolled coils and coking coal, and to intervene in the 10 - 01 reverse spread on rallies. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review - **Spot Prices**: On Friday, the aggregated price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,090 yuan (+10 yuan), and that in Beijing was 3,180 yuan (unchanged). The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3,200 yuan (+20 yuan), and that of HBIS hot - rolled coils in Tianjin was 3,110 yuan (unchanged) [13]. - **Profit Situations** - **Long - process Steel Mills**: The cash profit of East China rebar and Tangshan rebar, as well as the cash profit of Tianjin and East China hot - rolled coils, are presented in the report, but specific values are not summarized in text. - **Short - process Steel Mills**: The profit of East China electric arc furnaces during peak hours was - 340.47 yuan (-44.9 yuan), and that during off - peak hours was - 175 yuan (-45 yuan) [32]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and International Macroeconomic Data - **Domestic Macroeconomic Data** - In May, China's PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. Exports denominated in US dollars increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 3.4% year - on - year. - In May, the new social financing was 2.29 trillion yuan, and the year - on - year growth rate increased. The new RMB loans were 620 billion yuan. Resident loans increased year - on - year, while enterprise loans still declined year - on - year, but the month - on - month data showed some improvement. The increase in social financing in May mainly came from government bond issuance, and the increase in loans to the real economy hit a new low in recent years. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment was +3.7%, with the growth rate decreasing month - on - month. The cumulative year - on - year investment in real estate development was - 10.7%, that in manufacturing was +8.5%, and that in infrastructure construction was +10.42%. The growth rates of all three types of investment decreased month - on - month [45]. - **International Macroeconomic Data** - In the US in May, the unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.4%, the monthly rate was 0.1%. The unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.8%, and the monthly rate was 0.1%. - The US Department of Commerce announced that it will impose additional tariffs on a variety of steel - made household appliances starting from June 23 [34]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation - **Supply** - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4218 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate of 49 electric arc furnaces was 31.7% (-0.3%). - The small - sample production of rebar was 2.1218 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 46,100 tons. The small - sample production of hot - rolled coils was 3.2545 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons [65][69]. - **Demand** - The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 2.1919 million tons (a lunar year - on - year decrease of 7%), a month - on - month decrease of 7,800 tons. The small - sample apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 3.3069 million tons (a lunar year - on - year increase of 2.43%), a month - on - month increase of 108,100 tons. - The funds available at downstream construction sites have decreased, and the demand for building materials has weakened. The export of steel still shows strong resilience, but the export orders of the manufacturing industry may decline starting from July. The subsequent production schedules of the automobile and household appliance industries will decrease, putting pressure on steel demand [72]. - **Inventory** - Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are still being depleted. The total rebar inventory decreased by 70,100 tons, and the total hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 52,400 tons [4].

钢材周度供需数据解读 2025/6/20 研究员: 余典 从业资相号 F03122528 投资咨询号 Z0019832 陶存辉 从业资格号 F03099558 股资咨询号 Z0020955 张真 从业资格号 F03106996 投资咨询号 Z0021-118 薛磊 从业资格号 F03100815 投资咨询号 Z0021807 申宇蒙 从业资格号 F03144159 投资咨询号 Z0022199 板材供需好于预期,但市场情绪依然偏悲观 需求: 螺纹表需219.19万吨（-0.78）,同比-7.03%; 热卷表需300.69万吨（+10.81）,同比3.68%; 五大材表需 884.18 万吨（+16.08）,同比1.85%。 赌评，本周载探索同比降幅扩大，钢厂库存去优惠度缓良、谈季轻配钥显。随着消酮他揭矿电子，产量低位团升，价格风近运行。制造业同样进入淡季、尽管终新反馈不佳，但本周热卷表席卢明显回升，产生回升相度数小，库存 低位去化。中厚板和冷轧供需维持高位。近期汽车、家电等行业处于淡季，补贴和美国关税政策形成扰动，因此尽管数据表现较好，但上行驱动有限，黑色价格仍维持震荡运行态势。 风险提示:需求放量、炉料供给 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The conflict between Iran and Israel has led to a slight strengthening of ferrous metals including steel, but it does not change the loose supply - demand pattern of Chinese steel. The short - term impact on market sentiment may be positive, but the downward trend remains. Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly but not reverse the downward trend. Suggested operations are to short on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated, and the spot weakened slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, the 09 contract should be treated with a bearish view. The price range may shift down to 720 - 670 due to the risk of weakening demand in the off - season [4]. Coke Industry - The coke futures oscillated strongly, while the spot was weakly stable. The spot fundamentals are still loose. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract of coke at a rebound to 1380 - 1430 and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures oscillated strongly, and the spot was weakly stable. The spot fundamentals have improved slightly. It is suggested to short the 2509 contract of coking coal at a rebound to 800 - 850 and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon Industry - The ferrosilicon futures declined. The supply - demand contradiction has increased. The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term, and attention should be paid to coal price changes [7]. Ferromanganese Industry - The ferromanganese futures oscillated. The supply pressure still exists, and the improvement in supply is insufficient due to weakening demand. The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term, and attention should be paid to coke price changes [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most steel prices and futures contracts declined slightly. For example, the spot price of rebar in South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of rebar decreased by 15 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of some steel products changed slightly, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 31 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output remained unchanged, while the output of five major steel products decreased by 2.4%, and the rebar output decreased by 5.0% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.7%, the rebar inventory decreased by 2.2%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 1.4% [1]. - **Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 16.1%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 1.6% [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt cost and spot price of iron ore decreased slightly. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased by 7.7 yuan/ton, and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port decreased by 7 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 2.3%, and the 45 - port arrival volume increased by 2.9%. However, the subsequent arrival volume is expected to remain at a relatively high level [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1%, and the 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume decreased by 4.1% [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.4%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.2% [4]. Coke Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of coke futures decreased slightly, and the basis of the 09 contract increased by 6 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 2.2%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1% [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1% [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 1.6%, and the port inventory decreased by 5.2% [6]. Coking Coal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal futures decreased slightly, and the 09 basis increased by 11 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample mines decreased by 0.8%, and the clean coal output decreased by 1.0% [6]. - **Demand**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 2.2%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1% [6]. - **Inventory**: The coal mine inventory continued to increase, and the port inventory decreased slightly [6]. Ferrosilicon Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The futures price of ferrosilicon decreased by 0.5%, and the spot price in some regions increased slightly [7]. - **Supply**: The ferrosilicon production decreased by 2.3%, and the operating rate decreased by 4.4% [7]. - **Demand**: The ferrosilicon demand decreased by 3.5%, and the daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.1% [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 3.3% [7]. Ferromanganese Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The futures price of ferromanganese decreased by 0.9%, and the spot price in some regions increased slightly [7]. - **Supply**: The ferromanganese production increased by 0.9%, and the operating rate increased by 0.8% [7]. - **Demand**: The ferromanganese demand decreased by 2.9%, and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group decreased by 100.0% [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 5.04%, and the average available days of inventory decreased by 1.9% [7].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The steel market sentiment has slowed down, and steel prices are oscillating. Although steel inventories are decreasing and export resilience is strong, the impact of high tariffs on the US cannot be ignored, and future supply - side policies and Sino - US talks need attention [1]. - The iron ore market is weak and falling. Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, but iron ore prices are still firm in the short - term. In the long - run, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to the off - season demand and inventory changes [3]. - The demand side of coking coal and coke is weak, and prices are oscillating. Coking coal inventory is high and demand is weak, and the price center of coking coal and coke is expected to remain low [5][6]. - The procurement enthusiasm for thermal coal has improved, and the price in the production area is oscillating. In the short - term, price support is insufficient, and in the long - term, the supply is loose, and non - power coal consumption and restocking need attention [7]. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures trading atmosphere of rebar and hot - rolled coils is light, and the spot market transactions are average. The overall steel inventory is decreasing, and the low raw material prices make the steel mill profits acceptable. However, as the off - season approaches, building material consumption may decline, while plate demand remains resilient. The low domestic prices support export resilience, but the impact of high tariffs on the US still exists [1]. - **Strategy**: No trading strategies are provided for single - side, inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore is weakly falling, and the spot price has a slight decline. The global iron ore shipment has increased slightly, and the arrival at 45 ports has increased by 2.9% to 2609 tons. On the previous day, the total transaction volume at major ports was 85000 tons, a 14.4% increase. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and steel mills have a production - cut expectation [3]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of selling hedging after the price rebounds [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures of coking coal and coke are oscillating. Some coking plants' production has declined due to environmental protection, and some coal mines have reduced production, providing some support. The port spot price of coking coal is weakly stable, and the terminal procurement is mainly for on - demand restocking. The import price of Mongolian coal is weak, and the port inventory is accumulating [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal is expected to oscillate, and coke is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The pit - mouth coal price in the production area is oscillating. Environmental protection has affected some coal mines and coal - washing plants in Ordos. Chemical and other industries maintain rigid demand procurement, and the procurement demand is acceptable. The port market is weakly stable, and the port inventory is decreasing. As the rainy season arrives, the possibility of large - scale thermal power procurement is small [7]. - **Strategy**: No trading strategies are provided [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the demand for rebar has seasonally weakened, but the year - on - year decline is not obvious. EAFs are generally in the red, and BF profits have also weakened. Rebar production has dropped significantly, and inventory has been significantly reduced. In the case of plates, production has increased, supply has further recovered, and apparent consumption has also entered a seasonally weakening phase. Inventory has slightly increased at a low level, and the pressure is acceptable. The supply - demand of cold - rolled and medium - heavy plates remains high. The "rush to export" still provides some support for manufacturing demand. However, based on terminal research feedback, there is an expectation of a weakening in the total direct and indirect steel exports. Pessimistic sentiment still dominates. The pressure of off - season inventory is driving a return to fundamentals, and black prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Demand - Rebar apparent demand is 2.2903 million tons (-196,500 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.91% [1]. - Hot - rolled coil apparent demand is 3.2092 million tons (-60,100 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 2.73% [1]. - The apparent demand for the five major steel products is 8.8217 million tons (-316,200 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 3.46% [1]. Supply - Rebar production is 2.1846 million tons (-70,500 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 3.13% [1]. - Hot - rolled coil production is 3.2875 million tons (+92,000 tons), a year - on - year increase of 2.88% [1]. - The production of the five major steel products is 8.8038 million tons (-4,700 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.05% [1]. Inventory - Rebar inventory is 5.7048 million tons (-105,700 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 1.82% [1]. - Hot - rolled coil inventory is 3.4064 million tons (+78,300 tons), a year - on - year increase of 2.35% [1]. - The inventory of the five major steel products is 13.6381 million tons (-17,900 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.13% [1].

钢材周度供需数据解读 2025/5/30 研究员: 余典 从业资相号 F03122524 投资咨询号 Z0019832 陶存辉 从业资格号 F03099559 投资资询号 Z0020955 张磊 从业资格号 F03106996 投资咨询号 Z0021-118 薛磊 从业资格号 F03100815 投资咨询号 Z0021807 冉宇蒙 从业资格号 F03144159 投资咨询号 Z0022199 需求略有回暖,预期仍偏悲观 需求:螺纹表需248.68万吨（+1.55）,同比-0.49%;热卷表需326.93万吨（+13.87）,同比3.27%;五大材表需 913.79 万吨（+9.23）,同比1.02%。 供给:螺纹产量225.51万吨（-5.97）,同比-2.58%;热卷产量319.55万吨（+13.87）,同比4.54%;五大材产量880.85万吨（+8.41）,同比-0.96%。 库存: 螺纹库存581.05万吨（-23.17）,同比-3.83%; 热卷库存332.81万吨（-7.38）,同比-2.17%;五大材库存1365.6万吨（-32.94）,同比-2.36%。 -2025 - 2024 - 202 ...