Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio for auto finance and financial leasing companies from 5% to 0%, aimed at enhancing credit supply capabilities in specific sectors [1][2] - The reduction in reserve requirement is expected to release more long-term liquidity, significantly improving the funding capabilities of financial leasing companies [1][2] - The policy is anticipated to release approximately 1.3 billion yuan in incremental funds for Jiangsu Financial Leasing, aiding in business expansion and supporting equipment updates [2] Group 2 - The new policy is expected to enhance the overall activity in the financial leasing market, attracting more enterprises to participate and thus expanding the market size [3] - The central bank has increased the re-lending quota for technological innovation and equipment renovation from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan, providing low-cost funding support for key sectors [4] - The financial leasing industry has significant growth potential, with estimates suggesting that equipment leasing could reach a scale of 300 to 400 billion yuan if the market continues to develop [5] Group 3 - Financial leasing companies are encouraged to return to their core function of financing physical assets, optimizing fund allocation efficiency, and supporting national strategies such as green transformation and equipment upgrades [6] - Companies are focusing on customized repayment plans and extending leasing periods to match the cash flow cycles of enterprises in sectors like clean energy and agriculture [5][6]

一、资讯见闻： 近日，楼市的几则消息： 1、成本大转移： 全国最有钱的城市深圳，最近打算让自来水涨价13.05%。 这一趋势发生，其实在去年早有端倪，去年4月份开始，多个城市的天然气也有了不小的调整。 甚至，公开表态："推动价格温和回升"作为重要考量。 2、楼市近期动态： 厦门楼市是否能够再次突破重围，市场的成交量何时回暖？ 而刚需最佳置业时机何时来临？同预算价位内，最合适的地段又该如何选择？ 经过近年的沉淀，大家也都明白了，如今的股市、楼市，很少人再谈自己投资的眼光了。 其实，多数人成了恢宏时代下的一叶扁舟，顺势而为。在楼市房价之中，要让自己放下"偏执之心"，不 过分奢望"暴涨、暴跌"，遵从刚性需求。 ①、存款准备金：下调存款准备金率0.5个百分点，此次降准将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿。 这是近年的第N次降准，力度和去年初的规模相当。 ②、LPR：存量房贷利率已经可以自主设置为每季度、每半年、每年的周期调整，意味着，本月下调的 0.1个百分点，部分业主最快20号便可以执行，下个月便可以享受到优惠。 此外，预计LPR今年还仍将会有下调空间。 ③、随着公积金5年期的利率定格为2.6%，意味着今年的LPR最低不 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 宏 观 金 融 周 报 2025年5月12日 [Table_Title] 央行超预期降准和降息，提振国内市场情绪 ——股指期货周报 [table_main] 投资要点： 行情走势：上周沪深 300 指数收于 3846.16 点，较前值上升 2.00%；累计成交 10176 亿元，日均成交 2035 亿元，较前值下降 141 亿元。两市融资融券余额 为 17919 亿元。表现较好的前五名行业分别是国防军工(6.44%)、通信(5.43%)、 银行(3.98%)、机械(3.82%)、电力设备及新能源(3.80%)；表现较差的前五名行 业分别是医药(0.98%)、农林牧渔(0.84%)、电子元器件(0.72%)、房地产(0.65%)、 消费者服务(0.30%)。 期现基差行情：IF、IH、IC、IM 当月合约基差分别为-5.96 点、-0.41 点、 -19.32 点、-25.88 点。前一周同期值分别为-18.57 点、-5.96 点、-41.62 点、-44.72 点。 跨期价差行情：IF 合约次月-当月、当季-次季、次季-当季价差分别为-31.60 点、-6 ...

Report Information - Report Title: "Curve: Can It Flatten After Steepening? — Interest Rate Weekly (Week 2 of May)" [1] - Report Date: May 12, 2025 [2] - Chief Analyst: Yan Ziqi [2] - Research Assistant: Hong Ziyan [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The current short - end downward movement depends more on the central bank's stance and operations, as well as the decline of funding rates and certificate of deposit rates. If the marginal indicators improve, the short - end downward space may open up [6] - The long - end is likely to oscillate in the short term, and a downward trend requires catalytic factors. The current bond market is favorable, but more catalysts are needed for interest rates to decline. It is advisable to maintain duration and wait for opportunities, and appropriate leverage can be added under the background of falling funding rates [8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Short - end Interest Rate Analysis - After the double - cut policy was announced last week, the interest rate curve steepened, with the short - end down nearly 5bp and the long - end flat. The central bank's funding rate DR007 dropped significantly to 1.54% on May 9 [2] - Historically, after the reserve requirement ratio cuts were implemented since 2021, the short - end interest rates declined, oscillated, and increased 3, 2, and 3 times respectively. The necessity of short - end decline after reserve requirement ratio cuts may not be high [2] - Currently, non - bank institutions are buying short - term bonds, but large - bank - dominated allocation disks have not entered the market. Banks have been net sellers in recent weeks. However, large banks' funds lending has increased recently, and if the inter - bank certificate of deposit rate further approaches the policy rate, the short - end downward space may open up [4] - The key factor for the short - end to decline further lies in the central bank's stance and operations, as well as the decline of funding rates and certificate of deposit rates [6] Long - end Interest Rate Analysis - This year, the long - term bond has a high probability of short - term oscillation and needs catalytic factors to decline due to factors such as the weakening of broad - money expectations, repeated tariffs, and narrow term spreads [8] - The central bank's Q1 2025 monetary policy implementation report has relatively neutral impacts on the bond market. Although it mentions secondary trading of treasury bonds, new expressions are put forward to prevent interest rate risks [8] - The April inflation data is in line with expectations. The core CPI maintains a 0.5% positive growth. The real interest rate is close to the historical lower quartile, but the further downward space is limited [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the banking industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a recent interest rate cut, leading to a decline in short-term interest rates, which is expected to support liquidity in the banking sector [10][11] - The total market capitalization of the banking sector is approximately 9818.7 billion, representing 11.5% of the overall market [1] - The report indicates that the performance of the banking sector has shown positive trends, with absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months at 6.9%, 9.8%, and 28.4% respectively [3] Summary by Sections Industry Scale - The banking sector comprises 41 listed companies, with a total market value of 9818.7 billion and a circulating market value of 9727.2 billion [1] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has conducted 8,361 billion in 7-day reverse repos, reducing the operation rate from 1.50% to 1.40% [11] - A further reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points is expected to release 1 trillion in liquidity [11] Interest Rates - The report notes that the 1M, 3M, and 6M bill rates are at 1.19%, 1.09%, and 1.08% respectively, showing declines of 21bp, 2bp, and 11bp compared to the previous period [10][17] - The average financing cost for interbank certificates of deposit (NCD) is reported at 1.77% [14] Government Bonds - The yields for 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y government bonds are reported at 1.42%, 1.46%, 1.50%, 1.64%, and 1.84% respectively, with slight fluctuations noted [13][37] Financing Activities - The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit reached 8,577 billion, with a net financing of 3,357 billion, indicating a significant increase from the previous period [14] - The banking sector has seen a cumulative net outflow of 6,366 billion since May 2025 [15]

Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions, effective from May 15 [2] - The reserve requirement ratio for auto finance companies and financial leasing companies will be reduced by 5 percentage points [2] Industry Events - The 20th "China Optics Valley" International Optoelectronic Exposition will be held from May 15 to 17, focusing on optoelectronic technology and emerging fields such as AI and smart manufacturing [3] - Multiple industry events, including the 2025 World Digital Education Conference and the 17th China International Battery Technology Exchange Conference, will take place next week [3] E-commerce Promotions - Major e-commerce platforms like Tmall and Suning will kick off their 618 pre-sale activities on May 13, with JD.com also launching its promotional season [4] Stock Market Updates - The Hang Seng Index Company will announce the results of its first-quarter index review on May 16, with changes effective from June 9 [5] - Over 180 billion yuan worth of restricted shares will be unlocked next week, with a peak on May 12 when 15 companies will have a total unlock value of 144.69 billion yuan [7] Earnings Reports - Major internet companies including Alibaba, Tencent, JD.com, and NetEase will release their earnings reports next week, with JD.com reporting on May 13 and Alibaba on May 15 [6] New Stock Listing - Tian Gong Co., Ltd. will be listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange on May 13, focusing on the research, production, and sales of titanium and titanium alloy materials [10]

Group 1 - Pakistan Air Force fighter jets have launched airstrikes on multiple Indian air force bases, including locations in Gujarat, Ambala, and Jalandhar, with reports of Pakistani jets entering Indian airspace [1] - Pakistan has officially initiated a military operation named "Copper Wall" in response to ongoing provocations from India, targeting various locations across India, including a missile storage facility in Punjab [3] - During the operation, Pakistan reportedly conducted cyber attacks that led to approximately 70% of India's power grid being paralyzed [4] Group 2 - The Pakistani military has also launched a separate operation named "Bunyan-un-Marsoos" as retaliation for what it describes as Indian aggression, with explosions reported in Karachi's Shah Faisal Colony and Malir areas [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic fundamental side shows a marginal recovery trend, but the recovery foundation needs to be consolidated, and policy expectations continue to increase. The overseas market shows signs of economic cooling, and the Fed's policy still favors anti - inflation. The bond market is in a sideways shock, and the bond bull environment remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before making band allocations [92] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - **Contract Performance**: The 30 - year TL2506 contract fell 0.32%, the 10 - year T2506 contract rose 0.06%, the 5 - year TF2506 contract fell 0.01%, and the 2 - year TS2506 contract fell 0.02%. The trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts all decreased, as did their open interests [11][28] - **CTD Bond Performance**: For the 30 - year, 200012.IB fell 0.33 and 210005.IB fell 0.15; for the 10 - year, 220003.IB fell 0.06 and 240025.IB remained unchanged; for the 5 - year, 240014.IB rose 0.03 and 220021.IB rose 0.11; for the 2 - year, 240024.IB rose 0.03 and 220002.IB rose 0.09 [11] 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: On May 7, China agreed to have contact with the US, and the Chinese finance minister said China would achieve the 5% growth target in 2025. On May 8, three departments issued a package of financial policies, including a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut, a 0.1 - percentage - point policy rate cut, etc. The public fund industry worth over 30 trillion yuan underwent systematic reform [31] - **International News**: On May 8, the Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 3 was 228,000, lower than expected [32] 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: The yield spreads between 10Y - 5Y and 10Y - 1Y bonds widened slightly. The spread between 2 - year and 5 - year main contracts widened slightly, while the spread between 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts narrowed slightly. The inter - period spreads of 10 - year, 30 - year, 2 - year, and 5 - year contracts weakened slightly [40][44][50] - **Main Contract Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders in the T main contract decreased slightly [61] - **Interest Rate Changes**: Overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all declined. The DR007 weighted average rate rose to around 1.78%, and the money market tightened. The yields of short - term treasury bonds were stronger than long - term ones, with 1 - 7Y yields down 2 - 5bp and 10Y, 30Y yields up 1bp to 1.63% and 1.88% respectively. The yield spreads between US and Chinese 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds widened slightly [65][69] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 836.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and had 1617.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturities, resulting in a net injection of 781.7 billion yuan. The DR007 weighted average rate fell to around 1.52%, and the money market tightness improved [72] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bond issuance was 1433.8 billion yuan, total repayment was 813.6 billion yuan, and net financing was 620.169 billion yuan [76] - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.2095, down 81 basis points this week. The spread between offshore and onshore RMB strengthened. The 10 - year US treasury bond yield rose slightly, the VIX index fell slightly, the 10 - year treasury bond yield in China rose slightly, and the A - share risk premium fell slightly [82][85][89] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: The domestic economy shows a marginal recovery, but the recovery foundation needs to be strengthened, and policy expectations will continue to increase [92] - **Overseas Situation**: The US economy shows signs of cooling, and the Fed's policy still favors anti - inflation, with the possibility of delaying the rate - cut time to July [92] - **Strategy**: The bond market is in a sideways shock. Considering the long - term need for a low - interest - rate environment, the bond bull environment remains unchanged. However, beware of the risk of long - end bond price corrections. It is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before making band allocations [92]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests that the coke market is facing downward pressure due to high inventory and weak post - holiday market sentiment. The macro - environment has both positive and negative factors, and the supply - demand balance has limited upward space for iron - water production. The coke main contract is expected to operate in a weak and volatile manner [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: The relevant national ministries are promoting the regulation of national crude steel production, and the central bank has cut the deposit - reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, releasing about 1 trillion yuan in long - term liquidity. The personal housing provident fund loan interest rate has been lowered by 0.25 percentage points since May 8th [9]. - **Overseas Aspect**: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. Trump and the UK Prime Minister reached a limited bilateral trade agreement, with the UK buying $10 billion worth of Boeing aircraft [9]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: Short - term coke supply elasticity is better than that of coking coal. The current iron - water output is 244.35 + 4.23 = 248.58 tons, and the supply - demand is in balance, with limited upward space for iron - water. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 1 yuan/ton, and the demand in the sector is under pressure due to the tariff war, facing seasonal decline in the second and third quarters [9]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Due to the impact of tariffs, the demand in the sector is under pressure, and market confidence is insufficient. The coke main contract should be treated as operating in a weak and volatile manner [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of May 9, the coke futures contract open interest was 53,200 lots, a net increase of 96,300 lots. The 9 - 5 contract month - spread was - 122 yuan/ton, a decrease of 101 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The registered coke warehouse receipts were 1,190 lots, an increase of 300 lots. The futures rebar - coke ratio was 2.09, an increase of 0.08 [13][19]. - **Spot Market**: As of May 9, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port was 1,510 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The coke basis was 32 yuan/ton, an increase of 84 [25]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Industry Production**: In March, the output of industrial raw coal above designated size was 440 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. The output of coking coal in March 2025 was 4,161,470 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.23% [30]. - **Coking Plant Situation**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.05%, a decrease of 0.38%. The average daily coke output was 53.50, a decrease of 0.27. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 1 yuan/ton. The average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi was 21 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 55 yuan/ton, and the average loss of secondary coke in Inner Mongolia was 48 yuan/ton [34]. - **Downstream Situation**: As of May 9, the average daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 245.64 tons, an increase of 0.22 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 11.14 tons compared to the same period last year. As of May 1, 2025, the total coke inventory was 9.6949 million tons, a decrease of 16,600 tons compared to the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 21.29% [38]. - **Inventory Structure**: As of May 9, the coke inventory of 18 ports was 2.8368 million tons, a decrease of 71,100 tons. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 671,030 tons, a decrease of 4,190 tons, and the available days of coke were 12.1 days, a decrease of 0.07 days [43]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Export and Import**: From January to March 2025, the coke export volume was 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.50%. In April 2025, China exported 1.0462 million tons of steel, and from January to April, the cumulative steel export volume was 3.7891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.20% [48]. - **Real Estate**: In March 2025, the price index of second - hand residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.20% month - on - month. As of the week of May 4, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - scale cities was 1.5584 million square meters, a decrease of 9.60% month - on - month and an increase of 48.76% year - on - year. The commercial housing transaction area in first - tier cities was 510,100 square meters, a decrease of 6.18% month - on - month and an increase of 49.63% year - on - year, and in second - tier cities was 776,400 square meters, a decrease of 6.94% month - on - month and an increase of 52.71% year - on - year [51][56].

Core Viewpoint - Chinese hurdler Wu Yanni has achieved a career-high ranking of 23rd in the women's 100m hurdles, marking a record for Chinese athletes in this event [1] Group 1: Achievements and Rankings - Wu Yanni's recent performance in the Diamond League, with times of 13.00 and 12.96 seconds, has further improved her world ranking [1] - This ranking places Wu Yanni alongside Japanese athlete Tanaka Yumi, sharing the title of Asia's top female hurdler [1] - Wu Yanni's journey includes winning a bronze medal at the 2017 National Games and a silver medal at the 2021 National Games, where she also set the season's best Asian time of 12.87 seconds [4] Group 2: Background and Development - Born in 1997 in Sichuan, Wu Yanni began learning dance at the age of four and switched to athletics at twelve [1] - Her significant achievements include winning the National Youth Games in 2015 and the National Athletics Championships in 2023 with a time of 12.93 seconds [4] - Wu Yanni's performance at the Chengdu Universiade in 2023, where she set a personal best of 12.76 seconds, secured her qualification for the Paris Olympics [4]