Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "deposit migration" and highlights three common misconceptions in the market regarding excess savings and their implications for investment behavior [2][3][4]. Group 1: Misunderstandings about Excess Savings - Misunderstanding 1: The market may underestimate excess savings; "deposit migration" involves more than just deposits. The total excess savings, when considering various funds, approaches 10 trillion yuan, contrary to the less than 4 trillion yuan estimated based solely on deposits [2]. - Misunderstanding 2: The speed of market entry may be underestimated; non-bank deposits are not an accurate measure of "migration." The "non-bank net liabilities" metric, which excludes disturbances from interbank business, shows two rounds of high growth since September 24, indicating a more pronounced "deposit migration" in the second half of this year [3]. - Misunderstanding 3: The investment sensitivity of excess savings is potentially underestimated. Since 2021, residents have overly allocated excess savings to fixed-income assets, which have seen declining excess returns, making it difficult to meet reinvestment intentions amid accelerating housing price declines. The process of "rebalancing" funds may continue as nominal GDP gradually recovers by 2026 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "deposit migration" and highlights three common misconceptions in the market regarding excess savings and their implications for investment behavior [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Misunderstanding One: Underestimating Excess Savings - The market's discussion on "excess savings" often focuses on fixed deposits while neglecting the scale of wealth management funds. The excess savings calculated based on deposits is less than 4 trillion, but when considering all types of funds, the total excess savings approaches 10 trillion, indicating that the market may underestimate the funds available for investment [2]. Misunderstanding Two: Underestimating the Speed of Investment - "Non-bank deposits" are commonly tracked to gauge the scale of "migration," but this metric includes interbank business disturbances. By using "non-bank net liabilities," which excludes such disturbances, two rounds of high growth have been observed since September 24, suggesting that residents are experiencing two rounds of "deposit migration," with a more pronounced effect expected in the second half of this year [3]. Misunderstanding Three: Underestimating Investment Sensitivity - Since 2021, residents have excessively allocated their excess savings to fixed-income assets, which have seen a significant decline in excess returns. This situation makes it challenging to meet residents' reinvestment intentions amid a backdrop of accelerating declines in housing prices. The process of "rebalancing" funds may continue into 2026 as nominal GDP gradually recovers [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not contain information about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global economy in 2026 is expected to grow at around 3%, with loose global liquidity benefiting low and middle - income countries. The K - shaped economy in the US deepens, with AI investment as a new growth driver, while China's economic transformation shows initial results, and Europe's economy is under pressure due to the Russia - Ukraine war and trade tariffs [1][33] - For the copper market, supply is limited due to shortages in copper concentrates and refined production, and demand shows a mix of old and new trends. The US tariff expectation distorts global demand, and the price is expected to range between $11,000 - $12,500 [1][68] - In the aluminum market, China is approaching its electrolytic aluminum production capacity ceiling, and overseas production is restricted by power bottlenecks. Demand remains stable, and the supply gap is expected to widen, with the price expected to range between $2,700 - $3,200 [2][79] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Situation US Economy - In 2025, AI investment contributed to 1/3 of GDP growth, driving the stock market up. In 2026, AI investment will continue, but the traditional manufacturing industry will face more pressure, with the K - shaped economic structure deepening. Fiscal and monetary policies are both loose, and GDP growth is expected to increase slightly. The biggest uncertainty is the possible bursting of the AI investment bubble [5] - Consumer confidence has declined to a 20 - year low, with consumption growth concentrated in high - income groups. The employment market is expected to slow down but remain generally stable, with the unemployment rate slightly increasing. Manufacturing is in a weak recovery, and the "Big Beautiful Act" will increase the deficit and government spending. The market expects two more interest rate cuts in 2026 [9][12][16] Chinese Economy - In 2025, China implemented an active fiscal policy, and economic transformation achieved initial results. GDP growth is expected to reach around 5%. In 2026, the fiscal support will not be less than in 2025, and the focus will be on promoting domestic demand. GDP growth is expected to slow down slightly to 4.6% [17][20] - Real estate investment continues to shrink, and the contribution of the real estate industry to GDP has dropped from 30% to 10%. Industrial investment has paused after high - speed growth. Central fiscal investment will support fixed - asset investment. Industrial and export growth is expected to remain high, and measures to promote domestic demand will be strengthened [20][25][27] European Economy - In 2025, the Russia - Ukraine war and Trump's tariff war affected the European economy. The European Central Bank cut interest rates four times, and Germany launched a 500 - billion - euro defense plan. GDP growth is expected to be 1.3% in 2025 and slow down slightly in 2026 [29][32][35] - The biggest uncertainty in 2026 is the Russia - Ukraine war. If post - war relations are handled well, the economy may grow strongly. Global liquidity is expected to be loose, which will ease the debt pressure of low and middle - income countries [33] 3.2 New Demand Growth Points for Copper and Aluminum New Energy and AI Investment - The new energy industry has become a major growth source for non - ferrous metal demand. By 2030, the consumption of new energy in copper and aluminum demand is expected to reach over 30% and 25% respectively [36] - The growth of new energy vehicles will slow down. In 2026, the global production of new energy vehicles is expected to be 23 - 25 million, with a copper demand increase of 200,000 tons and an aluminum demand increase of 600,000 tons [36][37] - Photovoltaic growth will slow down. In 2026, the global new installed capacity is expected to be 610 - 650GW. The copper and aluminum demand growth will be less than 100,000 tons and 200,000 - 300,000 tons respectively [37][38] - Energy storage has become a new growth point. In 2026, the global energy storage installed capacity is expected to reach 377GWh, with a copper and aluminum demand increase of 65,000 tons and 200,000 tons respectively [39] - Data center construction is also a new growth point. The global data center copper demand is expected to increase by 100,000 tons annually, and China's data center copper demand may approach 1 million tons by 2030 [39] - The power sector's demand for grid upgrade and transformation is increasing. In 2026, China's main grid investment is expected to grow by about 10%, and the US is expected to invest over $1.1 trillion in power from 2025 - 2030 [40][41][43] Traditional Demand - The demand from the construction industry for copper and aluminum is expected to decline by about 15%. The demand for home appliances will slow down, with a production growth rate of about 2% in 2026. The demand from medium - income countries is growing [44][45][50] 3.3 Copper Market Supply Constraints - In 2026, copper concentrate production will increase, but refined copper production growth will slow down significantly. Long - term supply is limited due to factors such as the lack of new large mines and the aging of existing mines [51][54][55] - In 2026, new copper mine projects are expected to increase production by 570,000 tons. Chinese refined copper production growth will be limited by the shortage of concentrates, and overseas refineries may reduce production. The supply of scrap copper is expected to be tight [54][57][59][60] Demand and Price Outlook - In 2026, global refined copper supply is expected to have a shortage of 150,000 tons, and the shortage may expand to 300,000 tons in 2027. The US tariff expectation distorts global demand, making the US a high - price area for copper and intensifying the supply gap in non - US regions [61][63][67] - The copper price in 2026 is expected to range between $11,000 - $12,500, and the upward price elasticity depends on tariff expectations and speculative funds [68] 3.4 Aluminum Market Supply Situation - The supply of bauxite and alumina is in a high - growth period, and over - supply will intensify in 2026. The price of alumina will fluctuate within a narrow range around the cash cost of high - cost refineries [69][70][74] - China is approaching the 45.5 - million - ton capacity ceiling for electrolytic aluminum. In 2026, domestic production is expected to increase by 800,000 tons, and growth will basically stagnate after 2027. Overseas, new projects are mainly in Indonesia, but power bottlenecks are significant, and production growth has high uncertainty [74][76][77] Demand and Price Outlook - In 2026, global primary aluminum demand growth is expected to be slightly lower than in 2025. In the long term, new energy and emerging country demand will support a 2.7% - 3% compound growth rate [78][79] - The supply is expected to turn into a small shortage in 2026, and the shortage may expand after 2027. The aluminum price is expected to range between $2,700 - $3,200 (or 21,000 - 24,000 yuan) [79]

对于正在求职的美国人而言，今年是艰难的一年。预测者认为，就业前景在2026年也不会有太大改善。 经济学家表示，尽管经济增长稳健，但失业率在明年几乎全年内都将保持高位。一些人士指出，这种不 寻常的组合是由于影响力日益增强的人工智能投资在推动经济增长的同时并未促进就业。 随着劳动力市场的平衡持续从工作者向雇主倾斜，所有这一切已经导致了工资增长的放缓。这与2022年 和2023年形成了鲜明对比，当时工人占据上风，雇主被迫提供更高的薪酬来吸引人才。 10月份进行的一项哈里斯民意调查显示，55%的在职美国人担心失业，近一半的人表示，如果他们失去 当前职位，认为需要至少四个月才能找到质量相近的新工作。 劳动力市场停滞意味着明年将再次面临就业机会有限、工资增长放缓的情形，这将加剧美国家庭在中期 选举前的财务压力。这也意味着就业结构将更显著地向医疗保健行业倾斜，该行业在2025年几乎贡献了 全部净增就业。 毕马威首席经济学家黛安.斯旺克表示："我们获得的很多GDP增长来自AI基础设施投资，这些投资创造 的就业岗位不多，而且AI还造成了一些岗位流失。我们尚不清楚其具体程度。看起来这只是其初始阶 段。" 尽管经济学家表示美国并未 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights 15 key debates for 2025 that are likely to continue into 2026, focusing on various sectors including artificial intelligence, private credit, and macroeconomic factors [1] - There is a significant focus on the potential risks associated with alternative debt structures and high-leverage companies within the artificial intelligence ecosystem [4] - The report anticipates a further expansion of artificial intelligence transactions into platform stocks and productivity beneficiaries [9] - Concerns regarding private credit have arisen due to major losses and fraud allegations, indicating increasing risks in non-bank lending [12][13] - The recent rebound in the U.S. cyclical stock market reflects optimistic expectations for the macroeconomic outlook in 2026, with anticipated acceleration in economic growth and fiscal stimulus [15] - The report predicts a favorable fiscal stimulus environment for the upcoming year, driven by tax cuts, investment incentives, and new spending [17] - The K-shaped economic recovery is highlighted, showing disparities in consumer sentiment and sales growth between low-income and high-income segments [21] - The report suggests that 2026 may be a year of recovery for traditional economies, with rising commodity prices driven by a weaker dollar and increased inflation [23] - The outlook for Brent crude oil prices indicates significant downside potential compared to market expectations for 2026 [25] - The stablecoin market is currently valued at approximately $307 billion, dominated by Tether and Circle [29] - Despite strong economic performance in Europe, capital inflows remain notably sluggish [30] - The report has adjusted China's GDP growth forecast upward, which may negatively impact global GDP growth outside of China [36] - The report anticipates further strengthening of the euro against the dollar, which could adversely affect companies with high international sales [38] - South Korea is identified as the best-performing market year-to-date, with ongoing improvements in corporate sectors [40] - The ongoing technological competition between the U.S. and China remains intense, with both countries pursuing self-sufficient technology policies [42]

核心指标强劲增长，消费者支出有所回暖 美国10月零售销售整体表现受到汽车销量下滑和汽油价格下跌的拖累，但剔除波动性较大类别后的核心指标强劲增长，为消费者支出在假日购 物季初期加速提供证据，并为四季度GDP增长奠定基础。 周二（12月16日），美国商务部因政府关门而推迟发布的数据显示，10月零售销售额环比持平，略低于预期的0.1%增长，这也使得同比增速回 落至3.5%。9月数据被向上修正至增长0.1%。 分项数据显示，13个零售类别中有8个实现增长，其中百货商店和线上商家表现稳健。 机动车销售环比下降1.6%，部分原因是联邦电动汽车税收优惠到期。汽油价格下跌也压低了加油站的销售额。 剔除汽车经销商和加油站后，销售额增长0.5%，超出预期的0.4%增幅。 零售销售控制组环比激增0.8%，是市场预期的两倍，也是自6月以来的最大环比增幅。该指标剔除了餐饮服务、汽车经销商、建材商店和加油 站等波动性较大的类别。这一增幅使该指标同比增速达到5.1%的强劲水平。 这些数据表明，在假日购物季初期的几周内，消费者支出有所回暖。不少消费者担心就业前景，同时也对高昂的生活成本感到不满，因此开始 积极寻找折扣和优惠。在零售商推出竞争 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant wave of layoffs in the U.S., with over 1.1 million job cuts announced by companies as of November 2025, marking a level not seen since 1993, excluding the pandemic year of 2020 [1][3][4] Group 1: Layoff Trends - The technology sector has been the hardest hit, with over 150,000 layoffs in 2025 alone, as companies adjust their workforce and accelerate automation [3][5] - Cumulatively, U.S. employers reported 1.1708 million layoffs in the first eleven months of 2025, a 54% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with November alone seeing 71,300 layoffs, the highest for that month since 2022 [3][4] - The trend has shifted from large-scale layoffs to more frequent small-scale "rolling layoffs," with the proportion of such layoffs rising from less than half in the mid-2010s to over half in 2025 [6][9] Group 2: Economic Context - The economic signals in 2025 are contradictory, with concerns about job security amid an AI bubble and rising political issues regarding affordability for lower-income workers [4][5] - Analysts predict a "rolling recession" followed by a "rolling recovery," but the current recovery appears limited to financial metrics, with continued declines in white-collar job demand [5][12] Group 3: Labor Market Dynamics - Recruitment demand has also weakened, with companies planning to hire only 497,200 workers in the first eleven months of 2025, a 35% drop and the lowest since 2010 [11] - The labor market exhibits a "K-shaped structure," where large companies are restructuring successfully while small businesses face significant challenges due to rising costs and weak demand [11][12] Group 4: Impact of AI - The wave of layoffs is partly attributed to the adoption of artificial intelligence, with over 70,000 positions cut due to automation efforts [12] - The balance of power in the workplace is shifting towards employers, with remote workers facing diminished career advancement opportunities, leading to a culture of insecurity and increased workloads for remaining employees [12]

根据美国劳工统计局公布的数据，11月非农就业人数增加6.4万人，市场预期增加5万人。10月非农就业人数减少了10.5万人，市场预期减少2.5 万人。11月失业率为4.6%，高于市场预期，为2021年以来最高水平。由于美国政府关门，劳工统计局无法追溯收集相关数据，因此未能公布10 月的失业率。 8月份非农新增就业人数从-0.4万人修正至-2.6万人;9月份非农新增就业人数从11.9万人修正至10.8万人。修正后，8月和9月新增就业人数合计较 修正前低3.3万人。 | Metric | Actual | Median estimate | | --- | --- | --- | | Change in Nov. payrolls (MoM) | +64k | +50k | | Unemployment rate | 4.6% | 4.5% | | Average hourly earnings (MoM) | +0.1% | +0.3% | 11月份就业人数的增长得益于医疗保健、社会援助以及建筑业，运输和仓储业以及休闲和酒店业的就业人数有所下降。分析指出，美国制造业 就业人数已降至2022年3月以来最低水平——这 ...

智通财经APP获悉，10月消费者支出持平，表明美国家庭秋季支出情况比经济学家预期的更为疲软。美 国人口普查局周二发布的数据显示，10月份零售额与9月份相比几乎未发生变化。FactSet调查的经济学 家此前预计增幅为0.05%。按年率计算，销售额增长了3.5%。 该数据将为假日季前的消费者实力提供新的洞察。但随着联邦机构努力处理近期政府停摆造成的延误， 投资者将不得不等待更近期的假日需求数据。 9月份的零售销售报告于11月下旬发布，其主要结论是，初秋的支出仍具韧性，但增长开始放缓，特别 是在非必需消费品方面。 经济学家认为，消费者在10月份继续收紧钱包。RBC Economics 高级美国经济学家迈克尔·里德写 道："9月份的零售销售数据显示消费者动能正在减弱;在之前几个月支出大幅提前之后，我们预计假日 购物季前的支出将更为疲软。" 他补充说，较弱的汽车销售拖累了总支出。汽车销售额下降1.6%，部分原因是联邦政府对电动汽车的 税收优惠政策到期。而今年早些时候，许多人因担心后续关税推高成本而匆忙购车。汽油价格走低也抑 制了加油站收入的增长。 美国银行的信用卡和借记卡支出数据显示，汽油、家居装修和杂货的销售额也出现 ...

各位投资者朋友大家上午好欢迎来到2025年收官的年终的宏观策略谈我们今天关注对26年中国宏观政策的定调 对产业竞争格局和出口的前景还有就是经历了美联储的降息会议和中国的经济工作会议之后现在对于美股欧股和亚洲的股票的资产配置的博弈 今天像往常一样我会来抛砖引玉紧接着我们的首席策略师Laura会讲中美重量级会议之后对全球股市配置的最新看法我的同事郑林会讲刚刚出炉的经济数据对接下来经济工作会议也已经结束了12月到一季度之间几个政策抓手的时间顺序的想法 刚刚公布的数据反映出来的四季度的一些倾向可能让这种前置有了迫切感但这个前置更多的还是投向了基建比如说城市更新地下管网改造绿色转型的储能电网以及一些跟AI算力中心相关的公共开支领域 那么当然到了一年之中的六到九月份之间如果上半年的形势演绎从地产到物价到就业有进一步的情况的出现像刚才我们讲到的形势比人强也可能会追加相当于GDP0.5个点的新增的裁定空间我觉得现在国务院以及决策层是有这方面的灵活性进行相继抉择的 同样我们也考虑到当前整个中国经济打破通缩到足且长但是产业竞争的亮点是不乏的所以我们的亚洲经济学家Derek会来汇报一下我们刚刚出炉的一份深度报告对于中国的产业竞争格 ...