Report Summary Report's Core View - Canadian officials are negotiating with Chinese counterparts to persuade Beijing to lift tariffs on Canadian agricultural food and seafood products, which has pressured the rapeseed oil futures market. The 2509 contract of rapeseed oil has accelerated its decline, and considering the high domestic rapeseed oil inventory and capital movements, it is recommended to enter short positions [4]. Specific Data and Information - On June 3, 2025, after the news, the rapeseed oil 2509 contract's decline accelerated, testing the 9100 level [4]. - The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is at the highest among the three major oils, reaching a 5 - year high of 89.7 tons, and the import volume from June to August is expected to be 44.5 tons [4]. - On the previous day, Morgan Stanley, CITIC Futures, and COFCO Futures cumulatively reduced their long positions in rapeseed oil by 11,000 lots [4].

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Core Viewpoint - The coal futures market in China is experiencing a bullish trend, particularly in coking coal, with prices showing a significant increase amid fluctuating supply and demand dynamics [1][2]. Supply Analysis - Overseas supply of coking coal at the China-Mongolia border has increased seasonally, but trade volumes remain low, leading to high inventory levels [1] - Domestic coal mines are gradually resuming operations, with an increase in the operating rate and capacity utilization of 110 washing plants, resulting in a more relaxed overall supply of coking coal [1] - The cost-effectiveness of imported Australian coal has diminished, leading to a decrease in import volumes [1] Demand Analysis - Steel mills are seeking profits from upstream coking coal producers, but the second round of price reductions for coke has begun, indicating weakening demand [1] - The overall demand for coking coal is under pressure, with expectations of a decline in terminal demand impacting the market [2] - The anticipated peak in iron and steel production has led to a negative feedback loop in the black chain, further weakening demand for coking coal [1][2] Market Sentiment and Recommendations - Current market sentiment is influenced by political changes in Mongolia, which may lead to short-term price rebounds in coking coal [1] - Analysts suggest a bearish outlook for coking coal, recommending traders to consider short positions during price rebounds, with specific resistance levels identified for coking coal and coke futures [2]

Research Views - After the holiday on June 3, polycrystalline silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2507 closing at 34,360 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 2.65%, and the open interest decreasing by 5,800 lots to 71,600 lots. The price of SMM polycrystalline silicon N-type silicon material was 36,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type silicon material dropped to 36,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract widened to 2,140 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2507 closing at 7,070 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 1.39%, and the open interest decreasing by 8,304 lots to 200,200 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 8,777 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the last trading day before the holiday. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 silicon dropped to 7,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 575 yuan/ton [2]. - The downward adjustment of electricity prices during the wet season in Southwest China has led to the resumption of production, while large manufacturers in Northwest China will not cut production as they did in previous years, and downstream procurement has shrunk significantly. It is expected that industrial silicon will continue to bottom out, with the support from the cash cost line of large manufacturers in Xinjiang and the pressure from high inventory and increasing supply. A defensive short - selling strategy is maintained. The polycrystalline silicon self - discipline meeting in June will be held again. In addition to spontaneous production cuts by enterprises, the industry is expected to clarify an expansion of production limit quotas under the pressure of collapsing demand. In the near - term, due to the constraints of warehouse receipts, the one - sided decline is limited and the volatility increases. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the new electricity price regulations and the dynamics of warehouse receipts [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 7,170 yuan/ton on May 30 to 7,075 yuan/ton on June 3, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the near - month contract also decreased by 95 yuan/ton to 7,075 yuan/ton. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions generally declined, with the largest decline of 150 yuan/ton for 421 silicon in Tianjin Port. The current lowest deliverable price decreased from 7,750 yuan/ton to 7,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 5 yuan to 575 yuan/ton [3]. - In terms of inventory, the industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 63,253. The inventory in Guangzhou Futures Exchange remained unchanged, while the inventories in Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming Port, and industrial silicon factories decreased, with the total social inventory of industrial silicon decreasing by 11,800 tons to 409,100 tons [3]. Polycrystalline Silicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 35,600 yuan/ton on May 30 to 34,360 yuan/ton on June 3, a decrease of 1,240 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the near - month contract decreased by 1,095 yuan/ton to 36,300 yuan/ton. The spot prices of N - type polycrystalline silicon material, dense material/single - crystal use, and cauliflower material/single - crystal use remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price remained at 36,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased from 900 yuan/ton to 2,140 yuan/ton [3]. - The polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 470. The inventory in Guangzhou Futures Exchange remained unchanged, and the factory inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons, with the total social inventory of polycrystalline silicon decreasing by 0.1 million tons to 26.8 million tons [3]. Organic Silicon - The price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,200 yuan/ton to 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. Downstream Products - The prices of silicon wafers (single - crystal M10/G12) remained unchanged at 1.03/1.58 yuan/piece. The price of single - crystal M10 battery cells remained unchanged at 0.285 yuan/watt, while the price of single - crystal G12 battery cells decreased by 0.28 yuan/watt [3]. Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][10] Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polycrystalline silicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16] Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polycrystalline silicon weekly inventory [20][21][23] Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, profit of aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost and profit, and polycrystalline silicon cost and profit [26][28][29] Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng is mainly responsible for the research of aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi focuses on the research of lithium and nickel [33][34]

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交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-06-04 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2540至2600区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕冲高回落，获利盘回吐和技术性调整，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕库存维 持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期逐步回升，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库存短期 无压力，盘面短期震荡偏强。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜粕，但未对 油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2500，基差-57，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存2.35万吨，上周2.9万吨，周环比减少18.97%，去年同期3万吨，同比减少 21.67%。偏多 4.盘 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is expected to decrease as refineries have recently reduced production. The overall demand is lower than the historical average, and the recovery is weak. The inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cost support is strengthening in the short - term due to the rising crude oil prices. It is expected that the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3455 - 3509 [8][9]. - The bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In May 2025, the domestic total planned asphalt production was 2.318 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 28.6433%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.06 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 478,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.64%. The estimated device maintenance volume of sample enterprises was 764,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.79%. Refineries have reduced production to ease supply pressure [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 27.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 14.047%, a month - on - month increase of 1.72 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 26%, a month - on - month decrease; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.80 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 437.12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 701.2414 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20.49%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The rising crude oil is expected to support the price in the short - term [8]. - **Basis**: On June 3, the Shandong spot price was 3670 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 214 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.355 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%; the in - plant inventory was 814,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.76%. The social inventory continued to accumulate, while the in - plant and port inventories continued to decline [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below the MA20, showing a neutral trend [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, with an increase in long positions [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on the prices, price changes, and inventory changes of different asphalt contracts, including the 01 - 12 contracts, as well as information on weekly inventory, weekly output, weekly maintenance volume, weekly shipment volume, and downstream demand开工率 [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical basis trends of Shandong and East China asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [18][19]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: It presents the historical spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [21][22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 - 2025 [24][25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 - 2025 [27][28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [31][32]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Regional Market Price Trends - It shows the historical average price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in the East China and Shandong regions from 2020 - 2025 [35][36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [38][39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical profit spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [41][42][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volumes of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [44][45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventories from 2021 - 2025 [46][47]. - **Output**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [49][50]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: It shows the historical price trends of Marine crude oil and the monthly output trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2025 [53][55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: It shows the historical output trends of local refinery asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [56][57]. - **开工率**: It shows the historical weekly开工率 trends of asphalt from 2023 - 2025 [59][60]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical maintenance loss estimation trends of asphalt from 2018 - 2025 [62][63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It shows the historical exchange warehouse receipt trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [65][66][67]. - **Social and In - Plant Inventory**: It shows the historical social and in - plant inventory trends of asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [70][71]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It shows the historical in - plant inventory inventory ratio trends of asphalt from 2018 - 2025 [73][74]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, as well as the historical import spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [76][77][80]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Output**: It shows the historical output trends of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025 [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It shows the historical apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand**: - It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025 [88][89][90]. - It shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 - 2025 [92][93][95]. - **Asphalt开工率**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率**: It shows the historical开工率 trends of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [97][98]. - **Asphalt开工率 by Use**: It shows the historical开工率 trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [100][101]. - **Downstream开工率**: It shows the historical开工率 trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [103][104][106]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to May 2025, including data on monthly output, import, export, social inventory, in - plant inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [108][109].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rebar futures, the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 3000 - 2900 this week, and it's recommended to focus on the pressure level at 3000. Steel spot customers can consider a step - by - step selling hedging strategy [7][11]. - For iron ore futures, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 640 - 770. A grid trading strategy can be considered during the sideways consolidation phase [32][36]. 3. Summary by Directory Rebar Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The expected operating range of the rebar futures main contract this week is 3000 - 2900, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 3000. Weekly rebar production is 228000 tons, apparent consumption is 245000 tons, major steel mills' inventory is 1.83 million tons, and social inventory is 6.38 million tons. The futures price is in a downward channel on the daily level with significant capital outflows. Steel spot customers can consider a step - by - step selling hedging strategy [7]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: Steel spot customers were advised to consider a step - by - step selling hedging strategy [10]. - This week's strategy: Spot customers can consider a step - by - step selling hedging strategy, with a reference operating range of 3000 - 2900 and attention to the 3000 pressure level. Steel production enterprises can consider a step - by - step selling hedging strategy for 80% of their spot volume [11][12]. 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report mentions "Relevant data situation" multiple times but does not provide specific data details in the given content. It only indicates data sources such as Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [42][47]. Iron Ore Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The iron ore futures main contract is expected to trade in the range of 640 - 770. Last week, global iron ore shipments were 3352000 tons, arrivals at 45 major Chinese ports were 2276000 tons, steel enterprises' inventory was 8.936 million tons, and major domestic port inventory was 13.983 million tons. The daily line of iron ore futures is in a sideways phase, with the main short - selling camp having a slight advantage. A grid trading strategy can be considered during the sideways phase [32]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: The Great Wall Futures AI intelligent data model showed that the iron ore futures were in a sideways consolidation phase on the daily line [35]. - This week's strategy: During the sideways consolidation phase, a grid trading strategy can be considered, with a reference antenna of 770, a ground line of 640, 22 grids, and a grid spacing of 6 [36]. 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - Similar to the rebar futures section, the report mentions "Relevant data situation" multiple times but lacks specific data details. The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [42][47].