印尼央行行长：我们需要付出额外努力以支持经济增长。 ...

国际货币基金组织：预计2025年瑞士经济增长1.3%。 ...

欧洲央行副行长金多斯：第二季度、第三季度经济增长将接近于零。 ...

Group 1 - The UK economy experienced its fastest growth since early 2024, with a GDP increase of 0.7% in Q1 2025, driven by a surge in real estate market activity and manufacturers increasing output in response to US import tariffs [1] - Household spending rose by 0.4%, supported by housing, household goods and services, and transportation, with March's growth rate revised up from 0.2% to 0.4% [1] - The real estate market saw a significant increase in transaction volume before the expiration of tax relief for specific homebuyers at the end of March, contributing to economic growth [1] Group 2 - Manufacturing performance was particularly strong, growing by 1.1% compared to Q4 2024 [1] - However, GDP fell by 0.3% in April, indicating that the strong growth in Q1 may not continue throughout the year [2] - Experts warn that despite encouraging Q1 economic data, future growth prospects remain uncertain due to a complex global economic environment and new US import tariffs that may challenge UK exporters [2]

欧洲央行副行长金多斯：第二季度和第三季度的增长将几乎持平。 ...

柬埔寨人民党主席洪森亲王于28日在庆祝人民党成立74周年纪念大会上表示，柬埔寨经济在2025年上半 年表现出良好的增长势头，并预计全年将实现5.2%的增长率。 洪森亲王在讲话中指出："在当前积极的发展进程中，我们可以自豪地看到，柬埔寨在2025年上半年的 经济增长态势稳健。宏观经济稳定、通胀率保持在低水平、瑞尔币汇率稳定、国际储备继续增长，为经 济稳步前行奠定了坚实基础。" 据洪森亲王介绍，2025年前五个月国际贸易总额达255.03亿美元，同比增长18%，其中出口额为120.14 亿美元，同比增长17.98%。 投资领域： 核准投资项目共290项，较去年同期增加137项。 就业人数达187万人，同比增加约5万人。 农业方面，2025年旱季水稻生产实现显著增长： 播种面积达907,889公顷，较去年增长67,701公顷。 投资总额达42亿美元，增长14亿美元。 可预期新增就业岗位达20万个。 工业与就业方面： 全国注册企业及机构总数达45,386家，较去年增长588家。 国内游客达1,316万人次，同比大幅增长 50%。 洪森亲王强调，这些成就的取得，反映出国家整体治理能力的提升和社会稳定所带来的信心。他补充 ...

Economic Overview - Despite rising global trade friction costs, China's economic data in May showed strong resilience, with social retail sales increasing by 6.3% year-on-year and industrial added value growing by 5.8% year-on-year, suggesting a GDP growth rate of around 5.2% in the second quarter, making it feasible to achieve the annual growth target of 5% [1][7] - However, from January to May, industrial enterprise profits declined by 1.1% year-on-year, a drop of 2.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating multiple challenges in the transition from economic stabilization to profit recovery [1][7] Analysis of Profit Decline - The key reason for the weakening of enterprise profits is low prices, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) showing a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to May and a single-month decline of 3.3% in May, leading to a year-on-year drop in industrial profit margins by 4.24% [2][9] - On the supply side, manufacturing investment has consistently outpaced overall fixed asset investment, leading to capacity expansion primarily in high-tech sectors, making it difficult to execute capacity reduction in emerging manufacturing fields [2][12] - On the demand side, external demand is constrained by factors such as U.S. inventory replenishment, uncertainty in total demand, and increased tariff rates, while domestic consumption growth relies heavily on policies like trade-in programs and preemptive sales events [2][15] Policy Response and Market Impact - In the context of weak demand, enterprises face inventory reduction pressures, making price recovery crucial. Policies need to enhance counter-cyclical adjustments to promote price recovery and correct discrepancies in macro and micro expectations [2][19] - Before clear policy signals emerge, bonds hold investment value, while the stock market may benefit from improved liquidity and sentiment recovery, although a steady upward trend relies on continuous improvement in corporate profits [2][19]

Core Insights - The meeting held on June 28 focused on analyzing the economic performance of the Zhenjiang Economic Development Zone in the first half of the year and planning for the next phase of work [1][2] - Emphasis was placed on the urgency of stabilizing growth and promoting development, with a call for all departments to enhance their sense of responsibility and urgency [1][2] Economic Performance Analysis - The meeting included a detailed report on the economic performance, with a focus on the need for precise measures and effective implementation to achieve annual economic targets [1][2] - The Economic Development Bureau reported on the expected completion of key economic data for the first half of the year [2] Strategic Initiatives - There is a strong emphasis on project attraction, with initiatives to engage with economically developed regions and leading enterprises to expand project cooperation channels [2] - The importance of inviting businesses to visit the development zone to showcase its advantages and conditions for industrial upgrades was highlighted [2] Collaborative Efforts - The need for functional departments to strengthen collaboration in policy formulation and resource allocation was stressed to support economic development [2] - A proactive approach to analyzing and forecasting economic operations was encouraged to address challenges and prepare for high-quality regional economic development [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, nickel prices showed an overall oscillating downward trend. The supply - side surplus intensified with increasing refined nickel production, high LME nickel inventory, and continuous stockpiling. The demand - side was structurally weak, with limited demand pull from the new energy sector and low demand in the stainless - steel industry [6][50]. - The macro - economic situation in the US and China had different impacts on the nickel market. In the US, the Fed's interest - rate policy was uncertain due to inflation and tariff issues. In China, the economy showed strong resilience and structural optimization, but the nickel market was affected by factors such as high inventory and weak demand [4][5]. - In the second half of the year, attention should be paid to the adjustment of Indonesia's nickel ore policy, the reduction efforts of the stainless - steel industry, and the marginal improvement of new energy demand [51]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Market Review - In 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel futures showed a complex trend of "rushing up and then falling back - oscillating to build a bottom - stage rebound - falling back again". It was affected by factors such as Indonesia's nickel ore policy, new energy demand expectations, refined nickel stockpiling, stainless - steel demand, and US tariff increases [10]. II. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Supply - side Analysis - **LME and SHFE Inventory**: Since the second half of 2023, both LME and SHFE nickel inventories have shown a steady upward trend. As of late June 2025, SHFE inventory was 25,304 tons, and LME inventory was 204,216 tons [13]. - **Nickel Port Inventory**: As of June 20, 2025, nickel port inventory was 4.6591 million tons [15]. - **Import of Philippine Nickel Ore**: The import of Philippine nickel ore sand and concentrates in China showed seasonal fluctuations [16]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Price**: The prices of domestic and imported electrolytic nickel have shown a weak oscillating trend this year, closing at around 120,180 yuan/ton in late June [21]. - **Nickel Sulfate Price**: As of June 26, 2025, the nickel sulfate price dropped to 28,930 yuan/ton [25]. - **Nickel Iron Import Volume and Price**: On June 26, 2025, the Fubao price of nickel iron (8% - 12%) was 940 yuan/nickel [27]. 2.2 Demand - side Analysis - **Stainless - steel Price and Position**: The stainless - steel futures price showed a weak downward trend, with the market range in the first half of the year approximately between 12,300 yuan/ton and 13,700 yuan/ton [32]. - **Stainless - steel Inventory**: As of June 20, 2025, the inventories of 300 - series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan were 475,200 tons and 184,100 tons respectively [37]. - **Production of Power and Energy - storage Batteries**: The production of power and energy - storage batteries showed certain trends, but specific analysis was not detailed in the report [40]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production**: The production of new energy vehicles also showed certain trends, but specific analysis was not detailed in the report [48]. III. Outlook for the Future - In the first half of 2025, the domestic refined nickel production continued to climb, with the cumulative output from January to May reaching 173,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.99%. The over - supply pattern in the market intensified, and the demand was weak. The stainless - steel industry showed characteristics of "high production, high inventory, and low demand" [50].

Economic Overview - Hainan's economy showed stable and positive performance in the first five months of the year, with industrial added value above designated size increasing by 11.6% year-on-year [2][3] - The province's industrial enterprises reported a revenue increase of 6.9% and a profit growth of 23.5% [2] Industrial Growth - The equipment manufacturing sector experienced significant growth, with added value increasing by 73.2% [2] - Major industrial products such as methanol, primary plastic, synthetic fiber polymers, and optical fibers saw notable production increases [2] Consumer Market - Retail sales of consumer goods reached 1099.70 billion yuan, marking a 6.7% year-on-year increase, with a notable acceleration of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - The automotive retail sector experienced exceptional growth, with an increase of 76.1%, and new energy vehicle sales surged by 150% [2] Investment Trends - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, gas, and water supply) grew by 27%, contributing 5.6 percentage points to overall investment growth [3] - Public service investment rose by 25.1%, and several sectors, including information transmission and software services, saw substantial investment increases [3] Foreign Trade and Finance - Service imports and exports totaled 282.85 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.6% year-on-year growth, with exports increasing by 66.7% [3] - Financial institutions reported a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in loan balances and a 7.5% increase in deposit balances by the end of May [3] Consumer Prices and Environmental Quality - The consumer price index in Hainan decreased by 0.4% year-on-year [3] - The province maintained high environmental quality, with an air quality rate of 96.2% and water quality compliance rates of 100% for water sources and 95.2% for urban rivers and lakes, an improvement of 5.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]