Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that silver is emerging as a strong investment alternative to gold due to its lower price and significant price increase potential, making it attractive for ordinary investors [1][3][7] - Silver prices have recently surged, with current spot prices exceeding $39 per ounce, marking a 14-year high, and predictions suggest prices could reach 8 to 10 yuan per gram within the year [3][5] - The historical price ratio between gold and silver indicates that silver could see substantial growth, as gold prices have surpassed 800 yuan per gram, making silver's potential price increase more feasible [3][5] Group 2 - The value of silver is increasing due to its transformation from a secondary precious metal to a primary industrial metal, driven by rising demand in sectors like photovoltaics and electronics [5][7] - The fundamental change in supply and demand dynamics for silver, driven by real economic needs rather than speculative trading, suggests a more sustainable price increase [5][7] - Investors are advised to consider silver as a viable investment option, especially as gold prices are at high levels and may experience limited growth, while silver remains undervalued and has lower entry barriers [7]

Group 1 - The precious metals market in 2025 is experiencing unprecedented heat, with silver prices reaching a 14-year high of over $39 per ounce, marking a 33% increase year-to-date, while gold has risen by 27% in the same period [1][3] - As of July 23, 2025, the London gold spot price is reported at $3425.45 per ounce, with Shanghai gold futures exceeding 792 yuan per gram, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 20% [3] - The World Gold Council reported a net inflow of 552 tons into global gold ETFs in Q1 2025, a 170% year-on-year increase, with several domestic gold ETFs ranking among the top ten globally [3] Group 2 - The surge in demand for safe-haven assets is driven by geopolitical tensions and a trend towards de-globalization, leading to increased allocations in gold among wealthy individuals, with the proportion rising from 5% in 2024 to 11% in 2025 [4] - Industrial demand for silver is on the rise, particularly in the photovoltaic and electronics sectors, with an expected global solar installation capacity exceeding 600 GW in 2025, consuming over 670 million ounces of silver [4] - Retail participation in gold investments is increasing, with domestic gold ETFs showing over a 20% increase year-to-date, and platforms like Alipay attracting many new investors [4] Group 3 - Despite the market's enthusiasm, institutional views are divided, with HSBC raising its 2025 gold price forecast to $3215 per ounce, while Macquarie remains cautious, predicting silver prices to average around $36 per ounce in Q3 2025 [5] - Experts generally agree on a long-term upward trend for precious metals, with expectations of significant price movements in the second half of 2025 due to geopolitical risks and central bank purchasing trends [5] - The World Bank emphasizes that rising geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases will support precious metal assets in 2025-2026 [5] Group 4 - Regulatory compliance is becoming a focal point for investors, with five ministries in China issuing guidelines to strengthen management of gold trading platforms, ensuring traceability and data integrity [7] - Compliance platforms like Gold盛贵金属 are implementing strict transaction protocols and real-time verification systems to enhance investor confidence [7] Group 5 - For novice investors, it is recommended to use simulation accounts to familiarize themselves with trading indicators and to control risks effectively during live trading [8] - Advanced strategies suggest combining macro hedging with event-driven tactics, such as pre-setting orders based on central bank announcements to capture short-term price movements [8] - Risk management strategies include a "core + satellite" approach, maintaining a long-term holding while dynamically adjusting positions based on market conditions [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The non - response from Fed Chair Powell to the accusations from the Trump team and the statements from Fed Governor Bowman suggest that even if Powell completes his remaining term, Fed monetary policy will gradually turn dovish under Trump's strong intervention, which is a significant positive factor for international silver prices. The current precious metals strategy recommends maintaining a long - position mindset. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 809 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9095 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - **Precious Metals Prices**: Shanghai Gold rose 0.91% to 792.94 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 0.75% to 9453.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold fell 0.06% to 3441.80 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver rose 0.28% to 39.67 dollars/ounce. Other precious metals prices also showed various changes, such as Au(T + D) rising 0.39% to 780.00 yuan/gram, Ag(T + D) rising 1.54% to 9368.00 yuan/kilogram [2][4]. - **Other Market Indicators**: The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.35%, the dollar index was 97.39. Stock indices like the Dow Jones Index rose 0.40%, the S&P 500 rose 0.06%, while the Nasdaq Index fell 0.39% [2]. Gold and Silver Key Data Summary - **Gold**: In multiple markets (COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, etc.), gold prices, trading volumes, and open interests generally showed an upward trend. For example, COMEX gold's closing price rose 0.99%, trading volume rose 17.61%, and open interest rose 1.22% [6]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, silver prices, trading volumes, and open interests in different markets mostly increased. For instance, COMEX silver's closing price rose 1.07%, trading volume rose 40.57% in SHFE, and open interest rose 5.33% in COMEX [6]. Market Outlook - The situation regarding the accusations against the Trump team and the Fed's stance on independence and monetary policy is driving the strong performance of precious metals prices. The Fed's potential shift to a dovish monetary policy is expected to benefit international silver prices [2][3]. Charts and Data Analysis - There are numerous charts showing the relationships between precious metals prices and various factors such as the dollar index, real interest rates, trading volumes, open interests, and near - far month structures. These charts help in analyzing the market trends and price movements of precious metals [8][11][16]. - The report also provides data on the internal - external price differences of gold and silver, including SHFE - COMEX and SGE - LBMA price differences, which are important for understanding the cross - market price relationships of precious metals [50].

上海黄金交易所黄金T+D 7月23日（周三）早盘盘初上涨0.91%报788.13元/克； 上海黄金交易所白银T+D 7月23日（周三）早盘盘初上涨1.06%报9430.0元/千克。 黄金延期 白银延期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, as reciprocal tariffs are about to take effect, the game between economies has intensified, and market concerns have resurfaced. Trump's efforts to pressure Powell continue, which on one hand intensifies market unease and on the other hand loosens the expectation that the Fed will maintain high - interest rates. Under factors such as safe - haven demand and improved liquidity expectations, precious metals have risen strongly. In the future, the uncertainty of US tariffs and policies may lead to inflation rebound and economic slowdown, and precious metals are expected to remain in an upward - biased pattern [8][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals market: During the day, precious metals consolidated horizontally and gave back some of yesterday's gains. London gold is trading around $3389, and London silver is around $38.9. Driven by the external market, the main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.64% at 784.84 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 1.56% at 9393 yuan/kg [3] - Dollar index: The dollar index fluctuated narrowly and is currently trading around 97.865 [4] - US Treasury yields: The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose slightly and is currently trading around 4.39% [5] - RMB exchange rate: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate continued to consolidate at a high level and is currently trading around 7.175 [6] Important Information - Tariff trends: The EU is exploring broader potential counter - measures against US tariffs, with negotiation as the priority; US Treasury Secretary is more concerned about high - quality transactions; 19% of US tariffs on Indonesia may take effect before August 1st [7] - Fed turmoil: US Republican Congressman Luna sent a letter to the Department of Justice accusing Powell of perjury; the Fed added a video tour of the headquarters renovation project on its website [7] - Fed observation: The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 41.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 57.2% [7] Logic Analysis - With the approaching of reciprocal tariff implementation, market concerns have increased. Trump's pressure on the Fed has made the expectation of continuous high - interest rates waver. Precious metals have risen strongly due to safe - haven and liquidity expectations. In the future, the uncertainty of US tariffs and policies may cause inflation rebound and economic slowdown, and precious metals are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [8][9][10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider continuing to hold long positions [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [12] - Options: Wait and see [13] Data Reference - Dollar index and precious metals trends: Presented the trends of the dollar index against London gold and London silver [15][16] - Real yields and precious metals trends: Showed the trends of real yields against London gold and London silver [17][18][21] - Domestic and foreign futures trends: Displayed the trends of domestic and foreign gold and silver futures [20][22] - Futures - spot trends: Presented the trends of gold and silver futures - spot differences [24][25] - Domestic - foreign price differences: Showed the domestic - foreign price differences of gold and silver [28][30] - Gold - silver ratio: Presented the gold - silver ratios of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Comex [36][37] - ETF holdings: Displayed the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF [39][40] - Futures positions: Showed the futures positions of gold and silver [41][42] - Futures inventories: Presented the futures inventories of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver [43][45] - Trading volumes: Showed the trading volumes of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver [46][47] - TD data: Included gold and silver TD deferred fees, and the delivery volumes of gold and silver TD [50][51][57] - Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates: Presented the relationships among nominal interest rates, inflation expectations, real interest rates, and US Treasury yields [55]

Market Overview - On July 22, A-shares saw collective gains across major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.84%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.61%, all reaching new highs for the year [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 1.9286 trillion yuan, an increase of 201.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - Over 2,500 stocks rose, with more than 100 stocks hitting the daily limit for the second consecutive day [1] Sector Performance Hydropower Sector - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower concept stocks experienced a surge, with multiple brokerages publishing reports on investment opportunities related to the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project [4] - The project is expected to become the world's largest hydropower station, generating approximately 300 billion kilowatt-hours annually, which will significantly boost demand for engineering machinery [4] - Key suppliers in China's hydropower equipment market include Dongfang Electric, Shanghai Electric, and Harbin Electric, with Dongfang Electric achieving a 100% localization rate for 1 million kilowatt generator sets [4] Cement Sector - The cement sector is gaining momentum due to the "anti-involution" news, with the Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower project expected to provide a new boost [5] - Major players in the Tibet cement market include Tibet Tianlu, Huaxin Cement, and Conch Cement, with Tibet Tianlu accounting for about 30% of the region's total cement production [5] Liquor Sector - The liquor sector showed active performance, despite a decline of over 10% year-to-date as of July 21 [6][7] - Fund managers have mixed strategies regarding liquor stocks, with some reducing positions while others increase their allocations [8] - Many institutions believe that the current valuation of liquor stocks presents investment opportunities, especially for leading companies with strong management and risk resilience [9] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector saw gains amid fluctuating market conditions influenced by U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve speculation [10] - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact due to ongoing global uncertainties and central bank purchasing [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in precious metal prices are influenced by market sentiment driven by tariff policies, with gold and silver showing mixed performance amid ongoing uncertainties [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Precious metal prices have shown slight divergence, with gold experiencing repeated fluctuations and silver showing a slight upward trend, primarily due to strong commodity prices [1]. - The London gold price has been oscillating between $3100 and $3500 per ounce since late April, with reduced demand for gold as a safe haven due to the cooling international trade situation and U.S. fiscal expansion [2]. - The U.S. dollar's recent decline has supported gold prices, with New York gold surpassing the $3400 mark, indicating strong upward momentum [2]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - Standard Chartered Bank noted that the net long positions in gold have remained around 31%, driven by uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies, which support gold demand [3]. - Kitco Metals highlighted that the recent strong performance of gold was catalyzed by a significant weakening of the U.S. dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields, creating an ideal environment for gold price increases [4]. - Concerns over rising U.S. debt continue to bolster interest in gold, as it is seen as a hedge against uncertainty in the current market conditions [3][4].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The medium - to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish. For short - term, the resistance levels of London gold are raised to 3400, 3450, and 3500, with support at 3375; London silver has support around 38.4 and resistance in the 39 area. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - On Monday, the precious metals market rose strongly. The decline of the US dollar index and the 10Y US Treasury yield favored the valuation of precious metals. The surrounding US stocks, Bitcoin, and crude oil fluctuated, while the South China Non - ferrous Metals rose. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3410.3 per ounce, up 1.55%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $39.24 per ounce, up 2.02%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was at 781.7 yuan per gram, up 0.82%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9271 yuan per kilogram, up 0.93%. The approaching August 1 tariff deadline and slow US trade negotiation progress increased market risk - aversion sentiment in late July, which was beneficial to precious metals. The government's continuous intervention in the Fed may lead to a shift from hawkish to dovish under the Fed's independence principle, also favoring precious metals. Additionally, Japan's ruling coalition suffered a historic defeat in the Senate election [1]. 2. Interest Rate Cut Expectation and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly increased. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 41.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 57.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 1.5%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 19.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 48.7%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 31.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 0.8%. In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 3.43 tons to 947.06 tons daily; the iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 347.58 tons to 15005.79 tons daily, reaching the highest level since February 2023. In terms of inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 6.6 tons to 1204.5 tons daily; as of the week ending July 11, SGX silver inventory increased by 7.3 tons to 1327.2 tons weekly [2]. 3. This Week's Focus - This week's data is generally light. Pay attention to the preliminary values of the US July S&P manufacturing and services PMIs and the weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday evening. In terms of events, at 20:30 on Tuesday, Fed Chairman Powell will give a welcome speech at a regulatory meeting. At 01:00 on Wednesday, Fed Governor Bowman will host a fireside chat session at a large - bank capital framework meeting hosted by the Fed. At 20:15 on Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision, followed by a monetary policy press conference by ECB President Lagarde. During the week, US President Trump will give a speech at an event named "Winning the AI Race" [3]. 4. Precious Metals Spot and Futures Prices - SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 781.7 yuan per gram, up 4.68 yuan or 0.6%; SGX gold TD is at 777 yuan per gram, up 3.63 yuan or 0.47%; CME gold main contract is at $3410.3 per ounce, up $54.8 or 1.63%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract is at 9271 yuan per kilogram, down 2 yuan or - 0.02%; SGX silver TD is at 9226 yuan per kilogram, up 15 yuan or 0.16%; CME silver main contract is at $39.24 per ounce, up $0.815 or 2.12%. SHFE - TD gold is at 4.7 yuan per gram, up 1.05 yuan or 28.77%; SHFE - TD silver is at 45 yuan per kilogram, down 17 yuan or 44.19%. The CME gold - silver ratio is 86.9088, down 0.4172 or - 0.48% [5]. 5. Inventory and Holdings - SHFE gold inventory is 28857 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory is 1156.8058 tons, unchanged; SHFE gold holdings are 211239 lots, up 8952 lots or 4.43%; SPDR gold holdings are 947.06 tons, up 3.43 tons or 0.36%. SHFE silver inventory is 1204.466 tons, down 6.61 tons or - 0.55%; CME silver inventory is 15478.5188 tons, up 12.4918 tons or 0.08%; SGX silver inventory is 1327.23 tons, up 7.335 tons or 0.56%; SHFE silver holdings are 467534 lots, down 12142 lots or - 2.53%; SLV silver holdings are 15005.786237 tons, up 347.575 tons or 2.37% [13]. 6. Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index is 97.8575, down 0.6137 or - 0.62%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is 7.1714, down 0.0071 or - 0.1%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 44342.19 points, down 142.3 points or - 0.32%; WTI crude oil spot is $67.34 per barrel, down $0.2 or - 0.3%; LmeS copper 03 is $9794.5 per ton, up $116.5 or 1.2%; the 10Y US Treasury yield is 4.44%, down 0.03 or - 0.67%; the 10Y US real interest rate is 1.98, down 0.05 or - 2.46%; the 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread is 0.56, unchanged [18][20].

Group 1 - The Royal Mint reported record online sales of gold, silver, and platinum bars during the first quarter of the 2025-2026 fiscal year, specifically from April to June [1][3] - Gold prices in GBP reached five new historical highs, peaking over £2500 in April, leading to unprecedented participation from UK investors [3] - Despite a 17% decrease compared to the record fourth quarter, sales revenue for online bullion coins (gold, silver, and platinum) was still strong, up 115% year-on-year [3] Group 2 - Silver prices surpassed £27 per ounce in June for the first time since 2011, with silver sales increasing by 51% year-on-year [3] - Platinum sales surged by 188% compared to the previous year, indicating strong demand for precious metals [3] - The number of customers selling precious metals back to the Royal Mint reached a record high, with the value of sold coins increasing by 75% quarter-on-quarter and 55% year-on-year [3] Group 3 - A notable transaction involved a customer who purchased gold bars in October 2024 and sold them in June, realizing a tax-free profit of £70,000 [4] - The Royal Mint's products are classified as capital gains tax-exempt investments, reflecting a significant evolution in UK precious metal investment [5] - Investors are increasingly reallocating their portfolios towards silver and platinum, with activity in these metals rising alongside gold, indicating a growing awareness of their value [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported an increase in gold and silver prices on July 21, with gold T+D closing at 781.5 yuan per gram, up by 0.69%, and silver T+D closing at 9372 yuan per kilogram, up by 1.65% [1] Group 1 - Gold T+D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange closed at 781.5 yuan per gram, reflecting a 0.69% increase [1] - Silver T+D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange closed at 9372 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 1.65% increase [1]