Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that silver futures on the Shanghai market showed strong performance, with the main contract reaching 12,371.00 yuan per kilogram, marking a significant increase of 2.08% [1] Group 2 - As of November 26, the top 20 futures companies in Shanghai held a total of 361,700 long positions and 269,600 short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 1.34. The net position decreased by 234 contracts compared to the previous day [2] - On November 25, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange reported a trading volume of 159,339 contracts for silver futures, an increase of 64,046 contracts from the previous trading day. The open interest decreased by 3,943 contracts to 144,999 [2] - Recent dovish comments from multiple Federal Reserve officials have maintained market expectations for a rate cut in December above 80%. In geopolitical news, Russia indicated that a U.S. envoy would visit Moscow next week, but negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict are still considered premature [2] Group 3 - According to Guotou Anxin Futures, the U.S. initial jobless claims recorded 216,000, the lowest since April 12, 2025, indicating economic resilience. Gold is experiencing fluctuations while silver remains relatively strong. However, uncertainties regarding rate cuts and geopolitical situations continue to affect precious metals [3] - Minmetals Futures noted that expectations for the Federal Reserve's easing monetary policy have significantly rebounded following key speeches from Fed officials. The overseas rate cut cycle is expected to continue, with further developments anticipated in December. The last Fed meeting of the year is scheduled for December 10, where the economic outlook report will be released [3] - Current strategies for precious metals suggest buying on dips, with the Shanghai gold main contract expected to operate within a range of 917-967 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract within a range of 11,661-13,000 yuan per kilogram [3]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in December is rising, which may support precious metal prices. Global central banks are continuously buying gold, and geopolitical risks remain unresolved, all of which are factors that could support precious metal prices [1]. - The supply - demand outlook for platinum from 2025 - 2026 is expected to be tight, and with the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, platinum prices may fluctuate upwards [1]. - The global palladium supply - demand outlook from 2025 - 2026 may shift from tight to loose, but due to the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, palladium prices may be cautiously strong [1]. Group 3: Summary by Category Gold and Silver - **Price and Volume Data**: For Shanghai gold futures, the closing price on 2025 - 11 - 26 was 946.72, with a change of 14.16 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 341,225. For spot Shanghai gold T + D, the closing price was 941.17, and the trading volume was 57,208. For international gold, the closing price of COMEX futures active contract was 4126.30, and the closing price of London gold spot was 4072.50. Similar data is provided for silver [1]. - **Important Information**: The Fed's Beige Book shows little economic change during the government - shutdown period, with tariff pressure squeezing corporate profits and AI suppressing some recruitment demand. The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer announced a £26 billion tax - increase plan, and the official budget watchdog leaked the budget [1]. - **Multi - and Short - Logic**: The negative ADP private - sector weekly new employment in the US and some Fed officials' support for a December rate cut have increased the expectation of a December rate cut. Japan's economic stimulus plan may increase its debt burden, and the UK's fiscal situation has changed, all of which may support precious metal prices [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Investors should mainly lay out long positions when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3850 - 3950 and the resistance level around 4180 - 4384. For Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 870 - 890 and the resistance level around 960 - 1000. Similar levels are provided for silver [1]. Platinum - **Multi - and Short - Logic**: High mining costs, unstable power supply, and aging production equipment affect platinum production, while demand from industries such as hydrogen production and glass fiber is expected to be positive. The supply - demand outlook for 2025 - 2026 is expected to be tight, and combined with the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, platinum prices may fluctuate upwards [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on the main contract with a light position in the short term, or pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of "going long on platinum and short on palladium". For London platinum prices, pay attention to the support level around 1260 - 1460 and the resistance level around 1800 - 2000. For domestic platinum prices, pay attention to the support level around 325 - 377 and the resistance level around 465 - 516 [1]. Palladium - **Multi - and Short - Logic**: Supply is affected by mining and other issues, but the supply of recycled palladium is expected to increase. Demand from the automotive sector is expected to decline, while demand from industrial and medical fields has low elasticity. The global palladium supply - demand outlook from 2025 - 2026 may shift from tight to loose, but due to the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, palladium prices may be cautiously strong [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on the main contract with a light position in the short term. For London palladium prices, pay attention to the support level around 1080 - 1280 and the resistance level around 1600 - 1800. For domestic palladium prices, pay attention to the support level around 320 - 350 and the resistance level around 415 - 465 [1].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that China's economy is transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality development, focusing on innovation, green transformation, industrial upgrading, and domestic demand potential [1][2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is viewed as a strategic design for sustainable growth amidst a complex international landscape, influencing how China maintains economic resilience and redefines its relationship with global capital markets [1][2] - International investors, including notable figures like Jim Rogers, are closely monitoring China's economic policies, technological innovation, and market dynamics as they seek long-term investment opportunities [1][2][4] Group 2 - Jim Rogers believes that China is at the beginning of a new prosperity phase, with its openness and innovation shaping the global landscape over the next decade [2][4] - He highlights the significant potential of the tourism industry in China, as citizens are increasingly exploring both domestic and international travel [5][9] - Rogers maintains a positive outlook on the A-share market, viewing it as one of the few markets he still holds stocks in, despite recent volatility [6][4] Group 3 - The article discusses the importance of maintaining an open policy towards foreign investment, which Rogers believes will benefit China and its citizens [9][20] - It notes that China has a strong innovative spirit and a large, educated population, positioning it well for future advancements in technology [11][20] - The potential for cooperation between China and the U.S. across various sectors, including energy infrastructure, is also mentioned [12][20]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese commodity futures market showed overall stability on November 26, with major varieties experiencing mixed performance, particularly in precious metals which continued to rise due to dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The main contracts for silver and gold futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased for two consecutive trading days, with silver rising by 1.79% to close at 12,227 yuan per kilogram and gold increasing by 0.55% to close at 946.72 yuan per gram [1][1] - Analysts noted that the recent strength in Chinese precious metal futures prices is largely driven by increasing market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December [1][1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have recently signaled a dovish stance, with one official suggesting that the U.S. economy requires significant rate cuts and that current monetary policy is hindering economic growth [1][1] - Predictions indicate an 84.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, reflecting growing market sentiment [1][1] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - A report from Ruida Futures highlights that, in the medium to long term, the increasing debt pressure in the U.S. makes gold an attractive asset as a hedge against dollar credit, supported by the ongoing enthusiasm for gold purchases from central banks [1][1]

| Millio | 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月26日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属偏强震荡，美国补发9月零售销售月率录得0.2%低于预期和前值，PPI基本符合预期，利率期货隐 含12月降息概率维持在80%以上。消息称乌克兰同意美国提出的和平协议条款、但一些细节仍未敲定，各方 将继续会谈。降息和地缘前景仍存不确定性，贵金属高位震荡等待方向性突破。明天美国感恩节假期，周初 初请失业金数据提前至今晚发布。 ★俄乌局势 -- 1美国官员称,乌克兰方面已原则同意美国提出的和平协议,但仍有一些条款需要讨论。乌 官员称，乌美已就日前在日内瓦讨论的和平协议核心条款达成共识。②泽连斯基：将继续与美国就和平计划 进行谈判。③特朗普：和平协议已非常接近达成，仅剩少数 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 946.720 | 0.2↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 12227 | +100.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 188,763.00 | +7594.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 69,820.00 | -10102.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | | 341,225.00 +41536.00↑ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 1,643,769.00 | +274389.00↑ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) | 90423 | 0↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 531,211 | -9361↓ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 | 941.16 | -0.38↓ 华通一号白银现货价 | 12,150.00 | 33.00↑ | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -5.56 | -0.60↓ 沪银主力合约基差 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-11-26 美10月联邦预算赤字高企 贵金属价格走强 市场分析 通胀数据方面，美国9月PPI环比上涨0.3%，核心PPI环比上涨0.1%，均较前值明显加速，显示美国通胀在9月重新 升温。同时，美国9月零售销售环比增长0.2%，连续四个月正增长但显著放缓，且低于市场预期，汽车销售四个月 来首次下滑。财政数据方面，美国财政部表示，受近期联邦政府"停摆"影响，10月份联邦政府预算赤字高达2840 亿美元；财政端压力进一步凸显。一位财政部官员表示，由于许多联邦机构"停摆"43天，导致部分款项（例如政 府雇员的工资）的支付延迟，2026财年第一个月的预算结果被推迟发布。美联储方面，美联储主席选拔进入最后 阶段，美国财政部长贝森特称，总统特朗普预计将在圣诞假期前决定下一任美联储主席人选。此外，美联储理事 米兰发表最新讲话称，当前货币政策阻碍了经济发展，美国经济需要大幅降息。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-11-25，沪金主力合约开于935.60元/克，收于946.50元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动1.74%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于942.56元 ...

昨夜美联储货币政策的表态延续鸽派，同时特朗普政府派系成员暗示后续将会削减美联储的影 响力，金银价格短期得到支撑。 美联储理事米兰鸽派表态，他认为不存在通货膨胀问题，当前经济形势需要大幅降息。市场对 于米兰的鸽派言论已不产生反应，但米兰同时表示希望放宽监管使得美联储资产负债表收缩， 且更多的转向美国国债，他同时表明"我们需要降低抵押贷款利率"。米兰讲话的内容呼应了 此前贝森特的表述，即大幅削减联储本身所具备的影响力。今晨，海外消息人士称特朗普的"亲 密盟友"哈塞特已成为美联储新任主席的最热门人选，而他后续的货币政策表态将偏向鸽派。 白银方面，上期所白银库存自 11 月 21 日后开始小幅回升，昨日库存量增加 8.27 吨至 540.57 吨，但当前沪银总体期限结构处于 back 状态（其中 AG2512 合约仍贴水 AG2601 合约），显示库 存低位的情况下白银现货依旧紧俏，而这从供需层面对于白银的基本面形成支撑。 【策略观点】 贵金属日报 2025-11-26 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongju ...

外部市场方面，美元指数小幅走高，原油价格稳定在每桶约58.50美元附近，10 年期美债收益率维持在 4.06%。当前贵金属价格仍由现货与期货共同决定，而12月期货合约因年末流动性集中而成为当前CME 成交最活跃的品种。 技术面上，12月黄金仍处于关键区间。多头正试图向上挑战11月高点4250.00美元，而空头短线关注的 是价格能否跌破4000.00美元关口。目前阻力位集中在4100.00美元和上周高点4134.30美元附近，支撑位 则落在4036.40美元和4018.10美元。迈汇的技术评分为6.5，认为未来两日的宏观数据将决定金价能否完 成方向性突破。 白银方面，尽管多头仍占据短期优势，但上涨动能有所减弱。市场关注其能否向纪录高点54415美元推 进，而下方的主要支撑位在47000美元区域。当前阻力位分别落在50.555美元和51.00美元，支撑位在 49.37美元与49.00美元，技术评分同样为6.5。由于白银波动幅度更大，迈汇提醒投资者需特别留意宏观 数据公布后可能出现的快速行情。 本周一美国午盘时段，黄金与白银价格双双走高，为因节假日而缩短的交易周带来一个较为平稳的开 局。整体市场保持观望情绪，投资者 ...

隔夜贵金属上涨。随着包括纽约联储主席以及美联储理事沃勒等多位美联储官员表态支持12月降息,利率市 场隐含降息概率升至80%。俄乌相关方围绕美方提出的和平计划展开讨论和博弈,持续关注后续进展。市场 不确定性依然较强,贵金属高位震荡等待方向性突破。 ★俄乌局势—1美国总统特朗普: （谈及乌克兰会谈）可能有好事发生,乌克兰谈判可能正在取得进展。② 德国总理默茨：本周乌克兰谈判不会取得突破。③鸟克兰官员：此前的28点和平计划已不复存在，美乌已起 草新的19点和平计划，但政治上最敏感的部分将留给两国总统决定。④泽连斯基：结束冲突步骤清单超近可 行,将与特朗普商讨敏感议题 ★美联储—1理事沃勒:自美联储上次会议以来,现有数据显示变化不大,通胀并非大问题。我担心的是劳 动力市场，我主张在12月降息。②美联储戴利：就业市场可能突然恶化，支持在12月降息。尽管戴利今年对 货币政策没有投票权,但她很少在公开场合与美联储主席鲍威尔持不同意见。3市场出现美联储应等待非农 公布,推迟12月议息时间的观点。 ★美国9月PCE将于12月5日发布,三季度GDP的二次预估数据发布仍待重新安排,初值取消发布。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | ...