FICC日报 | 2025-12-17 真空期权益市场缩量波动 市场分析 非农数据喜忧参半。宏观方面，中央财办有关负责同志详解2025年中央经济工作会议精神指出，扩大内需是明年 排在首位的重点任务，要从供需两侧发力提振消费，统筹提振消费和扩大投资。另外，明年要从供需两端发力稳 定房地产市场。供给端要严控增量、盘活存量，加快消化库存。需求端要采取更多针对性措施，充分释放居民刚 性和改善性需求。海外方面，美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，高于市场预期 的5万人；失业率意外升至4.6%，创下2021年9月以来的新高。此外，10月就业数据被大幅下修。 股指调整。现货市场，A股三大指数调整，沪指跌1.11%收于3824.81点，创业板指跌2.1%。行业方面，板块指数跌 多涨少，仅商贸零售、美容护理、社会服务行业收红，通信、有色金属、电力设备、传媒行业跌幅居前。当日沪 深两市成交额为1.7万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.62%报48114.26点，纳指涨0.23%报 23111.46点。 期指基差收敛。期货市场，基差方面，股指期货当月合约本周五交割，基差趋于收敛。成交 ...

逻辑：国家发改委在《求是》杂志发表《坚定实施扩大内需战略》文 章指出，加快健全扩大内需体制机制。推动清理汽车、住房等消费不合理 限制性措施，建立健全适应消费新业态新模式新场景的管理办法。截至 12 月 16 日，5 家钢厂公布 2026 年冬储政策，涵盖东北、华北及西北地区。 政策要求 12 月 20 日前全额付款，未结算资源按次年 3 月 16 日至 4 月 15 日均价结算，单日结算上限 15%，计息方式为 6 厘按日计、点价当日止息。 邯郸已于 12 月 14 日启动重污染天气Ⅱ级应急响应，辖区内钢铁企业严格 落实限产管控措施，板材钢厂三座高炉处于检修状态，预计日均铁水产量 将减少约 15000 吨；另有一座高炉计划加入检修行列，届时将进一步影响 日均铁水产量约 5000 吨。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 晨报 成材 成材：缺乏驱动 底部运行 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文 ...

早盘速递 2025/12/17 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (800,000) (700,000) (600,000) (500,000) (400,000) (300,000) (200,000) (100,000) 0 100,000 200,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 Wind商品综合 Wind软商品 Wind油脂油料 Wind贵金属 Wind非金属建材 近五日商品期货板块持仓变动 2025-12-16 2025-12-15 2025-12-12 2025-12-11 2025-12-10 | | | | 大类资产表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 上证指数 | 日涨跌幅% -1.11 | 月内涨跌幅% -1.64 | 年内涨跌幅（%） 14.11 | 近一年走势 | | | 上证50 沪深300 | -1.08 -1.20 | -0.50 -0.64 | 10.06 14.30 | | | | 中证500 | -1.58 | -0.43 | 22. ...

Market Performance - On December 16, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.51%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.1%[3] - The total trading volume on December 16 was 1.75 trillion, a decrease of approximately 40 billion compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Analysis - Major sectors that experienced declines included telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, media, and machinery, while sectors like commerce, social services, and beauty care saw slight increases[1] - The technology-heavy STAR 50 Index did not reach a new low but has been on a downward trend since November, indicating significant short-term pressure for recovery[1] Capital Flow - On December 16, net outflows from the Shanghai Stock Exchange amounted to 17.388 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange saw net outflows of 4.223 billion[4] - The top three sectors for capital inflows were general retail, military electronics, and components, while the top three sectors for outflows were semiconductors, communication equipment, and semiconductors[4] Policy Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need for anti-monopoly enforcement and the establishment of a unified market to enhance competition and reduce barriers[5] - The commission also highlighted the importance of improving consumer demand mechanisms and removing unreasonable restrictions on consumption in sectors like automotive and housing[6] Industry Trends - The storage chip market has seen a significant price increase, with DRAM and NAND Flash prices rising over 300% since September, driven by AI developments and the "compute with storage" trend[9] - From January to November, the national railway transported 4.28 billion passengers, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.6% and setting a historical record for the same period[10] Fund Dynamics - As of December 15, 138 public fund institutions conducted 8,546 self-purchases, with a total net subscription amounting to 255.087 billion, reflecting a 1733.71% increase compared to the same period last year[11][12] - The total trading volume of ETFs reached 493.584 billion, with stock ETFs accounting for 130.3 billion and bond ETFs for 256.058 billion[13]

2025年12月17日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.426 | 102.470 | 105.795 | 105.795 | 107.905 | 107.920 | 111.39 | 111.55 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.454 | 102.494 | 105.785 | 105.785 | 107.870 | 107.900 | 111.53 | 111.75 | | | 涨跌 | -0.028 | -0.024 | 0.010 | 0.010 | 0.035 | 0.020 | -0.140 | ...

Group 1: Financial Futures Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with a more dovish tone. The US employment market is cooling, and the domestic economy continues the "seeking progress while maintaining stability" policy. The RMB exchange rate is likely to be moderately stronger in the short term, but there are potential risks. The stock index is in a shrinking adjustment, and the bond market can be bullish in the medium - term [2][5][6]. Summary by Directory - **Macro**: The US unemployment rate reached a four - year high. Investment and consumption growth are expected to recover next year, and the real estate supply side should control incremental and revitalize inventory [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and it is likely to be moderately stronger in the short term, supported by policies, exchange rate characteristics, and internal - external environment. However, there are potential risks such as high long - positions in the USD/HKD market and the impact of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike [3][5][6]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index fell collectively, and the US non - farm data had limited impact. The market is expected to stabilize and rebound after continuous adjustments, but the upward drive is insufficient [6][7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is weak, but there is no need to be pessimistic from the fundamental perspective. Mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term trading should control positions [8]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market is in a long - short tug - of war, with positive factors such as spot price increases and seasonal cargo volume, and negative factors such as the expectation of resuming navigation and future supply - demand pressure [9][10][11]. Group 2: Commodities Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The prices of precious metals are expected to rise in the medium - long term, with short - term high - level fluctuations. Base metals have different trends, and energy - chemical products are affected by various factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitics [15][18][20]. Summary by Directory - **Precious Metals** - **Platinum & Palladium**: The prices rose at night, and are expected to be boosted by central bank gold purchases and investment demand in the medium - long term. Attention should be paid to the internal - external price difference [13][14][15]. - **Gold & Silver**: The prices were in high - level fluctuations. The US non - farm data had limited impact on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Short - term high - level fluctuations are expected, and it is bullish in the medium - long term [16][17][18]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The price was in high - level adjustment. The non - farm data had little impact, and it is necessary to wait for the recovery of trading volume to determine the trend [19][20]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be in shock - strengthening, alumina in weak operation, and cast aluminum alloy in shock - strengthening. The macro - drive is suspended, and the fundamentals are different [23][24]. - **Zinc**: The downstream receiving capacity is limited, and it is in weak operation, with short - term wide - range fluctuations expected [28]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The prices fell sharply due to market sentiment. The fundamentals of nickel are complex, and stainless steel is affected by export regulations [28][29]. - **Tin**: The price was in technical adjustment, and it is expected to be in wide - range fluctuations in the short term, with opportunities to enter the market on dips [30][31]. - **Lead**: The price was under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500 in the short term, with strong support around 16500 [36]. - **Energy - Chemical Products** - **Paper Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp spot price fell, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The offset paper is affected by the pulp price and supply [46][47][48]. - **Crude Oil**: The price hit a new low this year, and it is expected to be in weak fluctuations in the short term, with attention paid to EIA inventory [49][50]. - **LPG**: The price was stable while crude oil fell. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was stable [51][52]. - **PTA - PX**: There is no obvious upward drive, and it will fluctuate with the cost side. The downstream polyester demand is expected to be high in the short term, but the negative feedback will be transmitted in December [53][54][55]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The supply negative feedback appears, and the price is under pressure in the long - term, with the short - term valuation fluctuating with the macro - sentiment [56][57]. - **Methanol**: Maintain the reverse spread strategy [59]. - **PP**: The cost side provides strong support, and the supply pressure may be relieved in January, with potential for a short - term rebound [60][61][62]. - **PE**: The supply is increasing while the demand is decreasing, and the upward space is limited. The PP supply - demand expectation is better than that of PE [63][64]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, and styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [66]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil cracking is weak, and the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to rise [67][68]. - **Asphalt**: The bottom space is limited, and it is in shock in the short term, with attention paid to the winter - storage policy [69][70]. - **Rubber**: The price center is moving up in shock. Natural rubber is in a wide - range shock, and synthetic rubber is running strongly with limited upward space [73][74]. - **Urea**: The market is in the range between fundamentals and policies, with the 01 contract expected to continue to fluctuate [75][76]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is waiting for new supply variables, glass is affected by cold - repair and inventory, and caustic soda is expected to be in weak fluctuations [76][77][78]. - **Log**: The price is in low - level shock, with high uncertainty in trading [79][80][81]. - **Propylene**: It is in shock, with a loose supply situation and unchanged supply - demand pressure [81][82]. Group 3: Agricultural Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The supply - demand situations of different agricultural products vary, with some having short - term pressure and others having long - term potential [84][86][89]. Summary by Directory - **Hogs**: The supply - demand in the peak season needs verification. The long - term can be bullish, but the short - term is based on fundamentals [83][84]. - **Oilseeds**: The outer market is weak, and the domestic soybean meal is in a positive spread in the short term. Wait for low - buying opportunities [85][86]. - **Oils**: The delay of the US biofuel policy makes the oils market weak [87]. - **Cotton**: The domestic downstream shows resilience, and it may rise in the medium - long term, with short - term pressure. Consider buying on dips [89]. - **Sugar**: The price is in weak decline [90][91]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is excessive, but there is a short - term rebound opportunity. Be cautious with long positions [92]. - **Apples**: The price stops falling and rebounds. Consider buying on dips [93][94]. - **Jujubes**: The new jujube harvest is almost completed. The short - term price may have limited downward space, and pay attention to downstream pre - holiday procurement [95].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 12 月 17 日 铝：横盘震荡 氧化铝：小幅反弹 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T-1 | | T | | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | | 21845 | -75 | 70 | 220 | 1075 | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | | 21825 | ー | - | - | । | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | 2883 | 8 | 37 | 21 | 261 | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | | 241924 | -94530 | -13811 | -3211 | 95764 | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | | 288833 | -5540 | 93107 | -76363 | 40490 | | ...

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,235, down 1.54% for the day but up 25.80% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,825, down 1.11% for the day and up 14.11% year-to-date [1] - The US markets showed slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.62% and the S&P 500 down 0.24%, while the Nasdaq increased by 0.23% [1] Hong Kong Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index closed at 47,342, down 1.32% for the day and up 34.74% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index closed at 17,540, down 1.71% for the day and up 17.62% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index saw a decline of 1.74% for the day, with a year-to-date increase of 20.91% [1][2] Sector Performance in China - The Chinese stock market experienced a pullback, with materials, conglomerates, and consumer discretionary sectors leading the declines, while healthcare, staples, and telecommunications sectors outperformed [3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 0.82 million HKD, with notable net purchases in Xiaomi, Xpeng Motors, and Tencent, while Alibaba, China Mobile, and SMIC saw the most significant net sales [3] Economic Indicators - The Central Financial Office of China emphasized the need to expand domestic demand and continue a moderately loose monetary policy, with expectations for investment and consumption growth to recover next year [3] - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI showed accelerated contraction, with Germany experiencing its worst performance in 10 months, while France unexpectedly returned to expansion [3] US Market Insights - The US stock market saw slight declines, particularly in energy, healthcare, and industrial sectors, while technology, discretionary, and communication services sectors performed relatively well [3] - Tesla's stock reached a historic high, driven by optimistic expectations for autonomous driving commercialization, although it faced a post-market decline due to regulatory issues [3] - The US added more non-farm jobs than expected in November, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to a four-year high, which may not significantly impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [3]

Copper - Overnight copper prices showed narrow fluctuations, with domestic refined copper imports maintaining losses. The macroeconomic environment indicates a cooling job market in the U.S., with November non-farm payrolls adding 64,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021. This data confirms a cooling job market, but its impact on the Federal Reserve's view on potential rate cuts in January remains uncertain. The probability of a rate cut in January has increased again [3][11] - The U.S. December Markit Composite PMI preliminary value is 53, below expectations of 53.9 and the previous value of 54.2, indicating a slowdown in order growth and rising price indices. Domestically, the Central Financial Office emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a top priority for next year, continuing a moderately loose monetary policy [3][11] - Inventory levels show LME copper stocks at 165,875 tons, COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 1,652 tons to 412,444 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 3,558 tons to 45,784 tons, and BC copper increased by 1,012 tons to 6,977 tons. The upcoming Bank of Japan meeting may introduce macroeconomic disturbances, leading to cautious sentiment in overseas financial markets [3][11] Nickel & Stainless Steel - Overnight LME nickel fell by 0.28% to $14,255 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 0.66% to 111,890 yuan per ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 360 tons to 253,392 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 2,622 tons to 37,872 tons. The LME 0-3 month spread remains negative, and the import nickel spread is stable at 400 yuan per ton [12] - Nickel iron prices remain stable, and the stainless steel spot market shows improved transaction sentiment, with total social inventory of stainless steel at 1.0636 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.55%. However, the raw material prices are under pressure due to falling nickel prices and weakening demand [12] - The domestic inventory of primary nickel is increasing again, and the basic fundamentals are dragging nickel prices into a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to overseas industrial policies and macroeconomic sentiment [12] Alumina & Aluminum - Overnight alumina prices showed a slight increase, with AO2601 closing at 2,553 yuan per ton, up 0.75%. SHFE aluminum also showed a slight increase, with AL2602 closing at 21,825 yuan per ton, up 0.14%. Aluminum alloy prices increased slightly, with AD2602 closing at 20,925 yuan per ton, up 0.05% [13][14] - The SMM alumina price has fallen to 2,787 yuan per ton, and aluminum ingot spot discounts have expanded to 100 yuan per ton. The market is currently negotiating new quarterly order prices for alumina, with companies showing a strong willingness to maintain production despite losses [13][14] - Domestic mining recovery is low, and external mining prices have shown slight declines. The market is gradually adjusting to a new trend of weak supply and strong demand for aluminum prices, with expectations of continued high prices [13][14] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 8,365 yuan per ton, down 0.59%. The reference price for industrial silicon is stable at 9,580 yuan per ton. Polysilicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 58,600 yuan per ton, up 1.48% [15] - The market is currently focused on hedging contracts or undelivered previous orders, with industrial silicon showing no clear trend and continuing to oscillate. The exchange has implemented measures to ease volatility in polysilicon [15] - The market is experiencing a disconnect between spot oversupply and warehouse shortages, with no upward driving force for the spot market. However, the lack of significant warehouse registration provides some support for the futures market [15] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures for the 2605 contract rose by 1.4% to 101,060 yuan per ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 650 yuan per ton to 95,150 yuan per ton, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate also rose by 650 yuan per ton to 92,650 yuan per ton [16] - The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by 59 tons to 21,998 tons, with spodumene lithium production rising by 260 tons to 13,744 tons. December lithium carbonate production is expected to increase by 3% month-on-month to 98,210 tons [16] - The market is experiencing resource supply disturbances, with expectations of production recovery weakening, leading to price increases. Even in the off-season, prices may weaken, but downstream stocking intentions are expected to remain strong [16]

Economic Growth Overview - In November 2025, China's industrial added value grew by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The service production index increased by 4.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to October[3] - Retail sales of consumer goods rose by 1.3% year-on-year, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[3] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing added value increased by 8.4%, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, outpacing the overall industrial growth rate by 3.6 percentage points[3] - The export delivery value showed a marginal recovery, with a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, improving by 2.0 percentage points from October[3] - The service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November, with a 0.1 percentage point increase compared to the previous month[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November, a drop of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Infrastructure and manufacturing investments maintained expansion, with cumulative year-on-year growth rates of 0.1% and 1.9%, respectively[3] - Equipment purchase investment rose by 12.2% year-on-year, contributing 1.8 percentage points to overall investment growth[3] Risks and Outlook - Risks include potential underperformance of growth stabilization policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalation of geopolitical conflicts[3]