4月14日，周一晚间，美股大幅高开，现道指涨1.01%，纳指涨1.75%，标普500指数涨1.32%。 红。 几十年来，美国经济的相对稳定使得美元能够发挥世界储备货币的作用，被全球各国央行持有。这也使得美国能够以低成本借款并弥补其经常账户和政府 预算的 " 双赤字 " 。 然而，最近因为特朗普"反复无常"的关税政策，使得国际资本加速撤离美元资产。 美元近期的趋势不仅反映了市场对关税政策的恐慌，更揭示了美元作为全球储备货币的根基正在动摇。 个股方面，芯片股普涨，美光科技涨逾7%，AMD、英特尔涨约4%，英伟达涨近3%。苹果涨近7%，惠普涨逾5%，戴尔科技涨近9%，特朗普政府豁免消费 电子等产品的对等关税。高盛涨超3%，第一季度股票交易收入超预期。此外，高盛董事会批准了至多400亿美元的股票回购计划。 值得一提的是，美股开盘后， 中国资产暴涨， 纳斯达克中国金龙指数高开高走，现涨超5%。阿里巴巴涨超6%，京东涨7%，小鹏汽车涨4.8%，蔚来涨超 4%，极氪涨超4%。 | | * ● | | 六合唱头 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 京东 | 1 | 38 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing "stagflation" pressure in the US economy, highlighting the divergence between consumer and corporate sectors, and the implications of tariff policies on economic performance and market dynamics [2][3]. Economic Conditions - The US economy is experiencing heightened "stagflation" pressures, with consumer confidence low and inflation expectations high, as indicated by the University of Michigan's consumer survey [2]. - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicts a Q1 consumption growth rate of only 0.7%, while corporate investment growth is forecasted at 8.9%, driven by strong equipment investment [2]. - The service sector's PMI fell to 50.8, nearing the contraction threshold, while the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49, indicating a contraction [2]. Tariff Impact - Recent fluctuations in US tariff policies have led to significant market volatility, with a shift in trading logic from recession fears to capital flight from dollar assets [3]. - The US government announced a temporary exemption on tariffs for certain technology products, which could alleviate effective tariffs on about 25% of China's exports to the US [8]. - The article notes that the "export rush" effect has diminished, with a decline in container throughput at major ports [8]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate suggests a reluctance to quickly lower interest rates, with officials expressing concerns over inflation driven by tariffs [2]. - The article anticipates that the Fed's intervention to address liquidity issues may be less likely than in the past, leading to a potential upward trend in interest rates [3]. Domestic Economic Response - China's economy is facing challenges from both internal and external factors, with a weak real estate market and declining retail sales due to tariff impacts [7]. - The government is expected to accelerate the issuance of special bonds to support economic growth and mitigate the effects of external shocks [9]. Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to present more opportunities than risks, with a potential decline in interest rates, while the A-share market is likely to remain volatile [12]. - The article suggests a balanced allocation in A-shares, focusing on technology, consumption, and dividend stocks, while also noting the potential for defensive positioning in the Hong Kong market [14].

海外策略：关税冲击暂缓，回归"滞胀"压力 美国经济"滞胀"压力加剧，美联储"抗通胀"目标仍然优先于"稳经济"。 尽管居民与企业部门的分化仍在持续，但美国经济失速正在从居民向企业部门传导。居民部门方面，"滞胀"预 期继续压制消费。4月密歇根大学消费者调查继续呈现"低信心，高通胀"格局，亚特兰大联储GDPNOW模型最 新预测Q1消费增速仅0.7%。企业部门方面，尽管GDPNOW模型将Q1投资增速预测值上调至8.9%，其中设备投 资（16.4%）表现极为亮眼，知识产权（5.1%）和地产（3.2%）投资表现亦显强劲。一季度美国的强劲投资或 来自特朗普上任初期的新政刺激，随着关税落地，企业部门信心亦在转弱。3月服务业PMI陡峭回落至50.8， 逼近荣枯线，制造业PMI跌至49，进入收缩区间。 美联储"双目标"走势及官员表态均不支持快速降息，与市场预期发生背离，需警惕预期校准风险。通胀方面， 尽管3月CPI通胀超预期回落至2.4%，但尚未反映关税冲击，"二次通胀"仍是大概率事件。就业方面，周频首 次申领失业金人数仍然保持低位，与经济走势背离，可能反映了"劳工荒"带来的供给侧支撑。官员表态普遍偏 鹰，对关税带来的通胀压力表 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential economic repercussions of Trump's tariff policies, drawing parallels to Nixon's abandonment of the gold standard in 1971, suggesting that these actions could lead to significant instability in the dollar and the global trade order [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context - The long-term effects of current tariff policies could mirror the impact of Nixon's decision to abandon the gold standard, which ended the post-war financial framework established with WWII allies [2]. - Nixon's measures, including a 10% import tariff and price controls, failed to achieve their intended goals and instead led to a loss of business confidence and stagflation, contributing to severe inflation in the 1970s [2][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - As the dollar index has dropped from a high of 110.18 to 100.10, a decline of over 9%, investors are reassessing their strategies, leading to a shift towards gold and physical assets for preservation of value [4]. - There is a noticeable trend of investors moving away from U.S. assets, with a reevaluation of the dollar's status as a reserve currency, indicating a rapid process of de-dollarization [8]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The short-term political tool of tariffs may lead to long-term economic pain, as seen in Nixon's case where the economic shockwaves lasted for decades [10]. - The current financial landscape may react more swiftly to policy changes than in 1971, with the bond market potentially exerting pressure on politicians to alter their strategies more rapidly [12].

打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 今日周一（4月14日）欧市盘中，COMEX黄金价格下跌，目前交投报3247.80美元/盎司，跌幅0.22%， 今日开盘于3246.00美元/盎司，最高上探3261.60美元/盎司，最低触及3225.60美元/盎司。 全球贸易紧张局势因美国政策反复而急剧恶化。亚洲大国宣布将对美国进口商品加征125%关税，标志 着国际贸易对抗进入新阶段。 WisdomTree大宗商品策略师Nitesh Shah指出，贸易战削弱了市场对美国作为可靠贸易伙伴的信心，导 致美元资产遭遇抛售，美元指数单周暴跌3%，创2022年4月以来新低（最低触及99.01）。美元作为传 统避险货币的地位动摇，促使资金转向黄金、日元及瑞郎等替代性避险资产。 Jefferies全球外汇主管Brad Bechtel分析称，美国经济"特殊性"减弱与衰退风险上升加速了资金从美元向 黄金的迁移。 美国经济数据释放矛盾信号，加剧市场对滞胀的担忧。4月密歇根大学消费者信心指数骤降至50.8 （2022年6月以来最低），而一年期通胀预期飙升至6.7%，创1981年以来新高。尽管3月PPI环比下降 0.4%，但同比仍维持2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential economic repercussions of Trump's tariff policies, drawing parallels to Nixon's 1971 economic decisions, which may lead to a significant challenge for the dollar and a shift in global trade dynamics [1][4][9]. Group 1: Historical Context - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers criticized the notion that tariffs have positive effects, labeling it as "fraudulent rhetoric" [1]. - Nixon's abandonment of the gold standard and the implementation of a 10% import tariff are highlighted as pivotal moments that reshaped the global financial order [1][2]. - The "Nixon Shock" is noted for failing to achieve its intended goals, resulting in lost business confidence and contributing to stagflation in the 1970s [1][4]. Group 2: Current Market Reactions - Investors are increasingly reallocating assets towards gold and physical assets for preservation of value, as the dollar index has dropped from a peak of 110.18 to 100.10, a decline of 9.1% [3][4]. - There is a noticeable shift of corporate and consumer activities from banks to the bond market, indicating a decline in bank loans as a share of total borrowing [7]. - The current market is experiencing a reassessment of the dollar's status as a reserve currency, with signs of rapid de-dollarization [8]. Group 3: Economic Implications of Tariffs - Tariffs are viewed as a short-term political tool that may lead to long-term economic pain, with Nixon's tariffs providing temporary benefits but resulting in prolonged economic shocks [9]. - The article suggests that the current financial environment may react more swiftly to political pressures compared to the 1970s, with potential for rapid market responses to policy changes [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodity futures is neutral [2] Core Viewpoints - External risks abroad are rising, but the domestic trend remains optimistic. China's Two Sessions in March set a positive tone for the whole year, with more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. The government's credit is in an expansion phase, and policies to address "involution - style" competition are worth attention. The official manufacturing PMI in March showed a month - on - month improvement but a year - on - year weakness, and the industry is also differentiated. Considering external tariff pressure, the possibility of additional domestic easing should be monitored [3] - The implementation of reciprocal tariffs exacerbates stagflation trading. Trump's reciprocal tariff order on April 2nd includes a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners and higher tariffs on some. It has an impact on China, Vietnam, Thailand, etc. Some products are exempted. The tariff game continues, and it may lead to stagflation in the US economy and put the Fed in a policy dilemma. Attention should be paid to the possible stagflation environment overseas in the long - term [4] - In the short term, be vigilant about the emotional impact on commodities, and in the long term, focus on stagflation - related asset allocation. From the 2018 tariff review, the impact of tariff increases first affects demand and then inflation. Industrial products like black and non - ferrous metals may be affected by the US stock market adjustment, while agricultural products may see price increases. Gold is relatively certain due to de - dollarization and potential stagflation overseas [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's government credit is expanding with policies such as raising the deficit rate, increasing special bond limits, and issuing special treasury bonds. The manufacturing PMI in March improved month - on - month but was still weak year - on - year, and the industry is differentiated. External tariff pressure may lead to additional domestic easing [3] Tariff Impact - Trump's reciprocal tariff order on April 2nd includes a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners and higher tariffs on some. Some products are exempted. The tariff game continues, and it may lead to stagflation in the US economy and put the Fed in a policy dilemma [4] Commodity Investment Strategy - The overall rating for commodity futures is neutral. In the short term, be vigilant about the impact of tariff events on global assets and liquidity risks. After the market stabilizes, focus on anti - inflation assets like gold and commodities and the allocation opportunities in A - shares. In the long term, pay attention to stagflation - related asset allocation [2][5]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The conference call discusses the impact of U.S. tariff policies on global trade dynamics, particularly focusing on the U.S.-China trade relationship and its implications for various countries including Vietnam, Japan, and Canada [2][3][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **U.S. Tariff Policy Changes**: The Trump administration's tariff policies differ fundamentally from previous U.S. administrations, focusing on altering the distribution system rather than enhancing efficiency through globalization [2][11]. - **Global Trade Responses**: Countries are responding to the tariff war with three strategies: hardline (e.g., China raising tariffs to 84%), moderate (e.g., EU's restrained actions), and compromise (e.g., Vietnam and Japan seeking negotiations) [2][5]. - **Economic Risks in the U.S.**: The U.S. economy faces risks from declining discretionary consumer demand and rising inflation, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a neutral stance, contributing to market volatility and increasing recession or stagflation uncertainties [2][8]. - **Impact on China’s Economy**: An increase of 1% in U.S. tariffs could lead to a 1.7% decline in Chinese exports to the U.S., potentially resulting in a GDP drop of 1-1.5% if tariffs reach 84% [2][16]. - **Market Volatility**: Global financial markets are experiencing significant volatility, with U.S. stocks and commodities declining sharply, while precious metals show strength but with notable fluctuations [2][17]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Investment Strategies**: A "barbell" strategy is recommended for RMB asset allocation, focusing on dividends and technology while also considering high-dividend stability and new energy development [2][29]. - **Long-term Economic Changes**: The current macroeconomic paradigm shift is affecting asset pricing, with a need for new pricing anchors like U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index [2][18]. - **Potential for Commodity Markets**: The outlook for the commodity market, particularly for non-ferrous metals, is positive, while agricultural products are expected to remain weak in the U.S. but strong domestically [2][20]. - **Japan's Economic Position**: Japan is highlighted as a key non-U.S. market due to its potential for growth and the Bank of Japan's discussions on interest rate hikes, which could support domestic demand [2][26]. - **Future Risks and Market Reversal Conditions**: Market reversals may occur due to significant monetary easing or corrections in pessimistic expectations, with current conditions suggesting limited downside for commodities due to already low prices [2][23]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the implications of U.S. tariff policies, global economic risks, and strategic investment opportunities.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights concerns in the private equity market due to the inflationary effects of trade policies [1] Group 2 - PIMCO indicates that trade policies are contributing to a stagflation environment, which is causing unease among investors in private markets [1] - The article suggests that the current economic climate may lead to reduced investment opportunities and increased risk in private equity [1]

JPMorgan Chase (JPM 0.91%) Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon is one of the most respected voices on Wall Street. Dimon leads the nation's largest bank by assets, and he successfully steered JPMorgan Chase through the great financial crisis without needing a bailout. The company and Wall Street analysts often refer to the company's "fortress" balance sheet, a nod to Dimon's canny risk management. Dimon is also one of the most vocal leaders in banking, and he's never been hesitant to share his thoughts on w ...