但由于11月非农数据明显强于前值，减弱了多头力量，再加上近期的高点阻力压制而遇阻回撤，最终震 荡收线。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4305.90美元/盎司，日内先行走低，于午间时段录得日内低点4271.65美 元，虽有所反弹，但仍保持着震荡下移模式，到美盘开盘前后，多头开始发力，连续反弹走强，于23点 时段录得日内高点4334.82美元，但动力难持稳，走势再度遇阻回撤，并又陷入盘整，最终收于4302.25 美元，日振幅63.17美元，收跌3.65美元，跌幅0.085%。 影响上，日内先行受到前两个交易日的回撤看空压力表现走低，之后由于支撑买盘，以及美国10月零售 销售月率对于前值和预期以及美国11月失业率上升创下四年多来最高水平，强化了美联储未来降息的预 期，打压美元走软，提振金价反弹录得日内高点； 上交易日周二(12月16日)：国际黄金震荡十字收平跌，继续收取高位见顶看空形态，但整体走势仍处于 5-10日短期均线上方，布林带及走势仍保持着10月底以来的上行趋势，这使得后市前景预期仍有在反弹 高位震荡调整后再度走强攀升。那么操作上，暂还是维持震荡待反弹的行情发展为主。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide information on the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It assesses the current market situation, influencing factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each sector. [17][24][56] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: After a significant decline, there may be a technical rebound, but the rebound without news support may have limited height. The trading strategy is to adopt a high - selling and low - buying approach in a volatile market, wait for the spread of the discount to widen for the IM/IC long 2603 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use the double - buying option strategy. [20][21] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Different maturities show differentiated performance. In the short term, it is difficult to determine whether the bond market will turn bearish. The trading strategy is to stop the short positions of TS and TF contracts at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage. [22][23] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: With large supply pressure from new crops, the price of US soybeans continues to decline. The international soybean market is in a pattern of abundant supply. The trading strategy is to wait and see, narrow the MRM spread, and sell the wide - straddle option strategy. [25][26] - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are oscillating at a low level, and domestic sugar prices are weak. The Brazilian sugar supply pressure will gradually ease, and the international sugar price may bottom - out and oscillate. The domestic sugar market may still maintain a weak trend in the short term. The trading strategy is to go long on the January contract and short on the May contract, and wait and see for options. [28][32] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The overall trend is weakly oscillating. The trading strategy is to buy on dips after the price stops falling and stabilizes, and conduct high - selling and low - buying band operations, and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [34][35] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price has declined, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. The trading strategy is to go long on the 03 contract on dips and establish long positions on the 07 contract at low prices, and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [37][38] - **Hogs**: The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price is oscillating. The trading strategy is to adopt a short - selling strategy, and wait and see for arbitrage and sell the wide - straddle option strategy. [39][40] - **Peanuts**: The spot price has declined, and the futures price is oscillating downward. The trading strategy is to short the 03 contract lightly at high prices, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option. [41][43] - **Eggs**: The demand is average, and the price is stable with a slight decline. The trading strategy is to go long on the far - month contracts at low prices, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [44][46] - **Apples**: The demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. The trading strategy is to wait and see, go long on the January contract and short on the October contract, and wait and see for options. [48][50] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sales of new cotton are good, and the price is oscillating strongly. The trading strategy is to go long on dips, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [52][54] Black Metals - **Steel**: The raw materials have stopped falling and stabilized, and the steel price is oscillating. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate in a range and may rebound from the bottom in the short term, short the coil - coal ratio and the coil - rebar spread at high prices, and wait and see for options. [57][58] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are oscillating at the bottom. The trading strategy is to wait and see, as the current situation has priced in most of the negative factors, and pay attention to the change of trading logic. [60][61] - **Iron Ore**: Adopt a bearish approach. The current supply of iron ore is abundant, and the demand is weak, so the price is expected to run weakly at a high level. [62][65] - **Ferroalloys**: The cost is supported, but the demand is suppressed. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate at the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money straddle option combination. [66][67] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The US employment market is cooling down, but under the situation of multiple factors, they are oscillating at a high level. The trading strategy is to hold long positions for Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy the out - of - the - money call option. [69][72] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The non - farm payroll data is lower than expected, and they are oscillating strongly. The trading strategy is to go long on platinum and palladium at low prices, and consider the long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage. [74][76] - **Copper**: Buy after a full correction. The US employment data shows that the labor market is cooling down, and the copper price is expected to rise in the long term. [77][80] - **Alumina**: Be vigilant against the resurgence of the "anti - involution" sentiment. The fundamental situation is still under pressure. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate at a low level, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [80][83] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: There is uncertainty in the macro - economic outlook, and the price is oscillating with a reduction in positions. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate after a correction, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [84][85] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: There is uncertainty in the macro - economic outlook this week. The trading strategy is to oscillate with the decline of the aluminum price, conduct the AD - AL spread convergence arbitrage during the decline of the aluminum price, and wait and see for options. [87][88] - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the magnitude of overseas warehouse delivery. The trading strategy is to wait and see, as the overseas delivery has put pressure on the price, and consider the long - domestic and short - overseas strategy when the export window may open intermittently. [89][92] - **Lead**: Pay attention to the change of inventory. The trading strategy is to partially stop the profit of the short positions and hold the rest, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [93][96] - **Nickel**: As a short - position variety, it continues to decline. The trading strategy is to expect the price to decline oscillatingly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [97][98] - **Stainless Steel**: It follows the decline of the nickel price and oscillates weakly. The trading strategy is to expect the price to decline oscillatingly, and wait and see for arbitrage. [100][101] - **Industrial Silicon**: Sell on rallies. The trading strategy is to sell on rallies, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [102][103] - **Polysilicon**: Buy on dips. The trading strategy is to hold long positions and buy on dips, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon for arbitrage, and sell the put option. [104][104] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The impact of the mining license is limited, and pay attention to the inventory data. The trading strategy is to operate cautiously at a high level, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option of the 2605 contract when the price rises. [105][107] - **Tin**: Pay attention to the export data of Myanmar in November. The trading strategy is to pay attention to the export data of Myanmar in November and be vigilant against the change of macro - economic sentiment, and wait and see for options. [108][111] Shipping - **Container Shipping**: MSK tested the price of 2800 in the first week. The trading strategy is to partially stop the profit of the long positions of the EC2602 contract and hold the rest, and wait and see for arbitrage. [112][114] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price is close to the annual low, and the geopolitical factor is still the focus. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate, the domestic gasoline is neutral, the diesel is weak, and the oil price spread is weak, and wait and see for options. [116][117] - **Bitumen**: The oil price has dropped significantly, and there are still concerns about the raw materials. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate and stabilize, and sell the out - of - the - money call option of the BU2602 contract. [119][121] - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil remains weak, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is frequently disturbed by the change of devices. The trading strategy is to be bearish, the low - sulfur cracking spread is weak, the high - sulfur cracking spread is weak, and wait and see for options. [121][122] - **Natural Gas**: The downward trend of LNG remains unchanged, and HH continues to correct. The trading strategy is to buy the HH2602 contract, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the TTF call option. [124][126] - **LPG**: It is slightly stronger than oil. The trading strategy is to short the 03 contract at high prices, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [127][128] - **PX and PTA**: The PX operating rate remains high, and there is still an expectation of PTA inventory accumulation. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate weakly, conduct the reverse arbitrage for the PX3, 5 & PTA1, 5 contracts, and wait and see for options. [130][131] - **Benzene and Styrene**: The supply and demand of pure benzene are loose, and the basis of styrene is loosening. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [133][134] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Some enterprises have reduced the operating load, and the price has rebounded slightly. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [136][137] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply and demand are weak, and the price has declined. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [138][140] - **Bottle Chips**: The supply and demand are relatively loose. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [141][142] - **Propylene**: The operating rate is rising, and the inventory is at a high level. The trading strategy is to short at high prices, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the call option. [143][144] - **Plastic PP**: The electricity consumption of the rubber and plastic industry has decreased slightly month - on - month. The trading strategy is to hold long positions for the L main 2605 contract and try to go long on the PP main 2605 contract, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [146][148] - **Caustic Soda**: It shows an oscillating trend. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [149][151] - **PVC**: It rebounds from the bottom. The trading strategy is to expect the price to rebound from the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [152][153] - **Soda Ash**: The price oscillates after the contract roll - over. The trading strategy is to wait and see, as the short - term price is expected to be stable. [155][159] - **Glass**: The price oscillates. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [157][160] - **Methanol**: It oscillates widely. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [162][163] - **Urea**: India has tendered again. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate in the short term and run weakly in the medium term, and wait and see for options. [165][166] - **Pulp**: The reality is weak, but the expectation is strong. Pay attention to the registration of warehouse receipts and the change of port inventory. The trading strategy is to hold the previous short positions, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [169][170] - **Logs**: The fundamental situation is weakening, the futures price is inverted, and pay attention to the registration of warehouse receipts. The trading strategy is to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 03 contract, gradually stop the profit of the 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [171][175] - **Offset Printing Paper**: The supply pressure remains high, and the transmission of high pulp price is less than expected. The trading strategy is to be bearish, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the OP2602 - C - 4100 option. [176][178] - **Natural Rubber**: The accumulation of the main visible inventory has slowed down. The trading strategy is to try to short the RU main 05 contract lightly and hold long positions for the NR main 02 contract, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [179][182] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The fixed - asset investment in the domestic rubber and plastic industry continues to slow down. The trading strategy is to hold long positions for the BR main 02 contract, hold the BR2602 - NR2602 spread, and wait and see for options. [183][185]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in silver prices, driven by multiple factors including expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, global supply constraints, and its inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals list, with silver reaching a historic high of $65.163 per ounce, marking a nearly 110% increase this year, outperforming gold and platinum [1][2][6] Group 2 - The surge in demand for precious metals is attributed to rising debt levels in major Western economies and the risk of currency devaluation, with supply shortages becoming a key support for silver prices [2][5] - The structural supply constraints in the silver market are emphasized, with about 70-80% of silver production being a byproduct of mining for other metals, indicating that supply cannot quickly expand even if prices rise [3][5] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are seen as supportive for precious metals, with a recent slight decrease in the probability of a rate cut to 87.4% not diminishing investor interest in silver [6][7] - Analysts suggest that while silver prices may experience high volatility and potential corrections in the short term, the long-term outlook remains bullish due to structural supply-demand imbalances [8]

此外，美国总统特朗普16日签署公告，将此前受美方全面和部分入境限制的国家数量从19个扩大至40 个。 美11月非农就业超预期 失业率意外创4年新高 当地时间12月16日，市场目光聚焦于当日晚间发布的非农就业报告，以获取关于美国劳动力市场的真实 健康状况。 当地时间12月16日，美国公布了因政府"关门"而推迟发布的11月非农就业报告。数据显示，美国11月非 农就业超预期，但失业率却升至4.6%，为2021年10月以来的最高水平。 数据出炉后，股指、汇市及黄金价格随之走出分化行情：美三大股指中仅纳斯达克勉强收红，标普500 指数已连续三个交易日下行；美元指数则一度失守98关口，创两个多月新低；现货黄金则借势攀升至 4310美元/盎司附近。 当地时间12月16日，美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.62%，标普500指数跌0.24%，纳指涨 0.23%。 | Ａ股 全球 港股 美股 基金 期货 分类 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普 500 | | 48114.26 | 23111.46 | 6800.26 | | -302.30 -0.62% | 54.05 ...

Group 1 - Silver prices have recently reached historical highs, with London spot silver surpassing $60 per ounce and peaking at $64.658 per ounce on December 12, marking a year-to-date increase of over 110% [1][2] - The performance of silver has outpaced that of gold, with silver's year-to-date increase at 114.35% compared to gold's 63.83% [2] - The gold-silver ratio has dropped to 65.19, indicating that silver is relatively more attractive compared to gold [3] Group 2 - Multiple factors are supporting the recent surge in silver prices, with expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts being a core driver [5][6] - The global silver market is experiencing a significant supply shortage, with a projected deficit of approximately 117 million ounces (about 3,660 tons) by 2025, marking the largest shortfall in recent years [8] - The tight supply situation is exacerbated by the fact that silver is often a byproduct of other mining operations, making it difficult to increase production in response to rising prices [6][8] Group 3 - Analysts believe that the long-term bullish outlook for precious metals remains intact, supported by macroeconomic factors and ongoing supply constraints in the silver market [7] - The demand for silver is expected to grow due to its applications in green energy and technology, particularly in solar panels and electric vehicles [9] - Despite the recent price increases, there are signs of potential volatility, as the market may experience profit-taking and fluctuations in trading positions [9][10]

近日，白银价格持续创下历史新高，成为2025年大宗商品市场耀眼的明星。相关数据显示，上周，伦敦 现货白银突破60美元/盎司关口，12月12日（上周五）最高触及64.658美元/盎司，刷新历史峰值； COMEX白银期货同步冲高，最高触及65.085美元/盎司，随后均出现调整。截至上周五收盘，前述两大 白银核心指标年内累计涨幅均超110%，大大超过市场火爆的黄金价格涨幅。那么，随着"白银热潮"愈 演愈烈，普通投资者能否参与其中？ 银价近期表现抢眼 本周以来，白银价格则处于震荡阶段。 多重因素支撑银价 对于白银的近期走势，多位市场人士认为，美联储降息预期的升温是本轮白银凌厉涨势的核心驱动力。 近期，国际白银市场迎来历史性行情，中银国际相关人士分析，现货价格在年内涨幅已超过100%的基 础上，于12月9日强势突破每盎司60美元整数关口，创下历史新高。上述人士提示，金银比修复正当 时，此轮白银上涨并非单纯的资金驱动，而是多重深刻基本面变化的集中反映，这标志着白银正摆脱其 作为黄金"附属品"的传统角色，其独立的投资逻辑和价值正在被市场重新定价。上述中银国际相关人士 认为，本轮白银表现更强的原因主要有三方面，一是全球能源转 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, exceeding the market expectation of 50,000 [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the expected 4.4%, marking the highest level since September 2021 [1] - Average hourly wage growth year-on-year and month-on-month were recorded at 3.5% and 0.1%, respectively, both below expectations [1] Group 2 - The October non-farm payrolls saw a decline of 105,000, the largest drop since the end of 2020, against a market expectation of a decrease of 25,000 [1] - Retail sales in October unexpectedly showed zero growth, missing the expected 0.1% increase, with the previous value revised down from 0.2% to 0.1% [1] Group 3 - Following the employment and retail sales data release, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January increased from 22% to 31% [1] - The market still anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, with an expected easing of 58 basis points next year [1] Group 4 - Analysts noted that the rise in the unemployment rate may not be entirely negative due to an increase in labor participation rate [4] - The White House economic advisor reassured that the rise in unemployment is statistically insignificant and should not be overinterpreted [4] - The private sector's average job increase over the past six months remained at 44,000, indicating the slowest hiring pace in the post-pandemic reopening period [5] Group 5 - Wage growth has slowed to 3.5%, the lowest level in the current cycle, which may influence the Federal Reserve's future actions [6] - The labor market remains characterized by low hiring and layoff numbers, presenting a complex situation for the Federal Reserve in balancing labor market stability and inflation control [5]

昨日12月16日（星期二），黄金早盘上涨至4318附近受阻下跌，到欧盘前最低跌至4271附近，欧盘低位震荡。美盘前开始企稳上涨，美盘初延续上涨，最高 触及4335附近，随后受阻下跌，凌晨下探4291附近后反弹4300上方震荡，日线收出一根十字阴线。 一、基本面 1、美国11月就业数据"撕裂" 积极面：非农就业岗位增加6.4万个，显著高于市场预期的5万个，扭转10月减少10.5万个岗位的颓势（10月减少因43天政府停摆导致联邦政府职位锐减16.2 万个）；私人部门就业平均每月增加7.5万个，被视为劳动力市场健康的积极信号。 局势动态：俄罗斯控制哈尔科夫地区诺沃普拉托诺夫卡定居点，对乌军设施实施154次打击；乌克兰在多方向击退俄军进攻；美欧考虑停火后向乌提供安全 保护，德国总理默茨称必要时维和部队可对俄军动武，且欧洲有50%可能性用冻结的俄罗斯资产为乌提供至少两年资金支持。 消极面：失业率意外升至4.6%，创2021年9月以来（四年多）最高水平，部分受技术因素影响（政府停摆后联邦雇员自报失业、调查回应率仅64%低于正常 水平、"轮换偏差"），且失业率数据标准误差高于正常，需谨慎解读。 市场影响：就业反弹支撑美元缩 ...

来源：期货日报 早上好！ 据新华社报道，美国劳工部16日公布的数据显示，今年11月美国失业率升至4.6%，为2021年10月以来 有记录的最高水平。 当月，美国失业人数总计约为783万，显著高于去年同期的712万。其中，失业时间短于5周的人数为250 万，比9月增加31.6万；长期失业人数为190万，占总失业人数的24.3%。 消息面上，据央视报道，当地时间12月16日，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，美国联邦储备委员会 前理事凯文·沃什以及白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特都具备领导美联储的资质。 贝森特在接受采访时称，他预计美国将于明年1月初任命新的美联储主席，以接替现任领导层。 鲍威尔的任期将于明年5月到期。根据相关法律规定，美国总统提名美联储主席人选后，需获参议院批 准。 之前，美国总统特朗普当地时间12日曾表示，凯文·沃什是下一任美联储主席职位的头号候选人，凯文· 哈西特也很出色。 另据最新消息，特朗普将于当地时间周三面试另一位美联储主席候选人——美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃 勒。在所有被考虑的美联储主席人选中，沃勒在《华尔街日报》10月对经济学家的调查中被评为首选， 华尔街普遍对沃勒评价较高。 市场方 ...

2025.12.17 本文字数：1204，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 胡弋杰 美国股市周二走势分化，标普500指数连续第三个交易日下跌，医疗保健和能源板块走弱成为主要拖 累；纳斯达克指数则在科技股支撑下小幅收高。投资者继续消化因政府停摆而延迟公布的经济数据，以 判断美联储明年的货币政策走向。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.62%，报48114.26点；标普500指数下跌0.24%，报6800.26点；纳 斯达克综合指数上涨0.23%，报23111.46点。 大型科技股涨跌不一。大型科技股走势分化。七巨头中，特斯拉上涨3.07%，创历史收盘新高；Meta上 涨1.49%，英伟达上涨0.81%；微软上涨0.33%；苹果上涨0.18%；亚马逊微涨0.01%。谷歌A股下跌 0.54%。博通上涨0.44%，甲骨文上涨2.02%。 中概股表现分化。阿里巴巴下跌0.53%，拼多多下跌1.25%，京东收平；百度上涨0.40%，富途控股上涨 0.93%，蔚来上涨0.80%，小鹏汽车上涨0.87%。 经济数据方面，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，11月非农就业岗位增加6.4万个，较10月有所回升，但在 贸易政策不确定性 ...