Market Overview - The US dollar index rose slightly, reaching an intraday high of 98.65 before closing up 0.23% at 98.46 [2] - Spot gold experienced a significant drop of nearly $60, hitting a low around $3340, and ultimately closed down 1.61% at $3342.73 per ounce [2] - Spot silver also declined, closing down 1.85% at $37.60 per ounce [2] Key News - President Trump stated that gold will not be subject to additional tariffs, which contributed to the decline in gold prices [3] - Trump's team is considering Bowman, Jefferson, and Logan as candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair, with an announcement expected this fall [3] - Trump described his meeting with Putin as exploratory, indicating potential future meetings with Zelensky or both Putin and Zelensky [3] Trade Insights - Precious metals prices generally fell, with COMEX gold futures down 2.80% at $3393.7 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 2.33% at $37.645 per ounce [7] - The upcoming meeting between US and Russian leaders is anticipated to reduce geopolitical tensions, which may weaken safe-haven demand for gold [7] - Despite the short-term bearish outlook, concerns over economic data and potential interest rate cuts may provide some upward momentum for gold prices in the future [7] - Key price ranges for COMEX gold are projected between $3400 and $3600 per ounce, while COMEX silver is expected to range between $37 and $40 per ounce [7]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices continued to decline, with December gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropping nearly 2.2% to $3415.6 per ounce, influenced by easing geopolitical risks and inflation concerns [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - Investors are focusing on the upcoming US-Russia leaders' meeting in Alaska on the 15th, which is expected to ease geopolitical tensions and reduce safe-haven demand [1]. - Last week, gold prices rose nearly 2.7%, reaching a record intraday high of $3534.1 per ounce, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and reports of tariffs on imported gold bars [1]. - The price difference between New York gold futures and London spot gold once reached $100 per ounce, indicating significant market volatility [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Analysts predict that the upcoming July Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US may rebound to 3% year-on-year, raising concerns about inflation impacting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1]. - Following reports of the White House planning to clarify misinformation regarding tariffs on gold and other special commodities, international gold prices retreated, and the futures-spot price gap narrowed to under $60 per ounce [1].

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF fund has shown a recent decline but has experienced a significant increase over the past week, reflecting a volatile market influenced by various economic factors [2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of August 11, 2025, the gold ETF fund (159937) decreased by 0.76%, with a latest price of 7.49 yuan. However, it has increased by 2.11% over the past week as of August 8, 2025 [2]. - The fund's net inflow reached 60.6554 million yuan recently, with a total of 276 million yuan in net inflows over the past five trading days, averaging 55.2025 million yuan per day [3]. - The fund's net asset value has increased by 70.70% over the past five years, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [3]. Group 2: Market Influences - Recent market conditions have been influenced by rising interest rate expectations, changes in tariffs, and continued central bank gold purchases, pushing gold prices above $3,500 per ounce [2]. - The price of gold futures reached a historical high of $3,534.1 per ounce, while the London spot gold price has risen by 3.31% since August [2]. Group 3: Risk and Return Metrics - The fund has a maximum monthly return of 10.62% since inception, with a longest consecutive monthly gain of six months and a total gain of 16.53% [3]. - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past year is 2.35, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [3]. - The fund's management fee is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10% [3]. Group 4: Tracking Accuracy - The gold ETF fund has a tracking error of 0.002% over the past three months, indicating high tracking precision compared to similar funds [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7] Core Views - Precious Metals: China has increased its gold reserves for the ninth consecutive month, with a total of 73.96 million ounces as of the end of July, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces. The market is influenced by expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year [3][12] - Industrial Metals: The seasonal peak is approaching, and attention should be paid to the pace of inventory reduction. Copper prices are supported by a tight supply-demand balance, while aluminum prices may experience fluctuations due to seasonal factors [4][14] - New Energy Metals: The mining operation at Jiangxiawo has been confirmed to be suspended with no plans for resumption in the short term. The lithium market is expected to remain strong due to resilient demand despite supply disruptions [19] - Other Minor Metals: The prices of rare earths are showing slight weakness, but there is limited downside potential in the short term due to existing supply gaps [20] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Strategy - Precious Metals: Continuous increase in gold reserves by China and rising expectations for a Fed rate cut [11] - Industrial Metals: Seasonal peak approaching, focus on inventory reduction [14] - New Energy Metals: Suspension of mining operations at Jiangxiawo [19] - Other Minor Metals: Rare earth prices showing slight weakness [20] 2. Weekly Review - The non-ferrous index rose by 5.8%, with gold showing the largest increase among sub-sectors [24][28] - Notable stock performances include Kexin New Energy (+53.05%) and West Materials (-12.66%) [26] 3. Major Events - Macro: Trump criticizes Powell for delayed rate cuts; China's July PPI decreased by 3.6% [39] - Industry: China continues to increase gold reserves; Jiangxiawo mining operation confirmed to be suspended [44] 4. Non-Ferrous Metal Prices and Inventory - Industrial Metals: Copper and aluminum prices remain stable with copper inventory increasing [47] - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices are rising due to a weakening dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [66]

Core Insights - The market's expectations for interest rate cuts have increased following Trump's nomination of a temporary Federal Reserve governor, leading to a decline in the US dollar index [1][2] - The implementation of tariffs on gold bars has raised concerns about increased costs for the global gold refining center in Switzerland, potentially resulting in an additional $24 billion in tariffs [3] - The geopolitical uncertainty, particularly regarding US-Russia relations, continues to support the safe-haven appeal of precious metals [3] Market Overview - The US dollar index fell by 0.13%, closing at 98.041, influenced by the market's anticipation of rate cuts [2] - Spot gold reached a two-week high, peaking above $3,400 per ounce, and ultimately closed up 0.8% at $3,396.31 per ounce [2] - Spot silver increased by 0.15%, closing at $38.26 per ounce [2] Regulatory Changes - The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has classified 1-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars under taxable codes, with tariffs effective from August 7, impacting the cost structure for gold trading [3] - The new tariff regime is expected to significantly increase physical delivery costs and affect liquidity in the futures market [3] Trading Strategy - Precious metals are anticipated to experience a strong upward trend, driven by a combination of safe-haven premiums and expectations of policy easing [4] - Key technical levels to watch include the $3,500 resistance for gold and the $38.5 resistance for silver, with potential upward challenges towards $39 [4]

上周五，美国公布的7月非农就业数据意外"爆冷"，远不及市场预期。这盆泼向美国经济的"冷水"，却给资本市场点燃了一把火，金价应声拉升，COMEX黄 金期货当天涨幅超2%。 今年以来，黄金走强的驱动因素主要是美国经济数据趋弱催化美国滞胀/衰退预期，无论美国降息预期再扩张与美国再通胀两种路径哪种发生，均利多金 价。 事实上，尽管今年全球风险偏好显著回升，几个主要股市的表现都比较亮眼，黄金的涨幅依旧领跑。近期，随着美联储9月降息预期升温，资金再度聚焦黄 金。其中，以金ETF（159834；联接A/C：018391/018392）为代表的黄金ETF产品，为普通投资者提供了便捷高效的配置通道。 数据来源：Wind，数据区间：2025.01.01-2025.08.04 数据来源：Wind，数据区间：2025.01.01-2025.08.04 当前普遍预计美联储将加快降息节奏，根据wind数据，截至8月5日，CME掉期利率显示9月降息概率超九成，或对黄金价格形成支撑。 当下的投资价值与逻辑支撑 我们知道，黄金集避险硬通货、通胀对冲货币、工业与饰品商品三重属性于一身，且与股债低相关，是天然的跨维度风险缓冲器。眼下，地缘政治升温 ...

【技术分析】 黄金价格周三承压回落微幅收跌，亚欧盘震荡下跌，美盘上涨，日线收阴线，回踩5日均线，日线RSI 位于50上方，4小时回踩3360附近企稳，继续看涨，若黄金行情彻底站上3380，短线仍有望挑战3400。 【要闻速递】 美国总统特朗普最新宣布对印度商品加征25%关税，并将于三周后生效，部分商品税率将高达50%。这 是继拟对半导体芯片征收100%关税后，美国政府再次升级贸易保护措施，刺激市场避险情绪升温。 KCM Trade分析师Tim Waterer指出，金价正逼近3400美元心理关口，持续的政策不确定性巩固了黄金的 避险吸引力。 除贸易风险外，美元持续疲弱也为金价走势提供支撑。美元指数徘徊于一周低点附近，因市场预计美联 储9月降息概率高达95%。明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利最新表态称，尽管关税影响尚不明确，但可 能需要降息应对经济放缓。分析师认为，在贸易紧张局势与货币政策宽松预期的双重作用下，黄金价格 短期或维持震荡偏强走势。 周四（8月7日）欧盘时段，现货黄金短线冲高，刷新近两周高点至3396美元，逼近3400美元心理关口， 因美联储官员鸽派讲话进一步打压美元，而且国际贸易局势的不确定性推升黄金的 ...

Market Overview - Domestic precious metal futures showed mixed results on August 7, with Shanghai gold futures at 783.72 CNY per gram, down 0.08%, and Shanghai silver futures at 9192.00 CNY per kilogram, up 1.29% [1] - International precious metals also displayed mixed performance, with COMEX gold priced at 3430.80 USD per ounce, down 0.12%, while COMEX silver was at 38.24 USD per ounce, up 0.80% [1] Price Data - The opening, highest, and lowest prices for key precious metals on August 7 were as follows: - Shanghai Gold: Opened at 782.28 CNY, peaked at 785.00 CNY, and bottomed at 781.08 CNY per gram [2] - Shanghai Silver: Opened at 9163.00 CNY, peaked at 9244.00 CNY, and bottomed at 9155.00 CNY per kilogram [2] - COMEX Gold: Opened at 3431.80 USD, peaked at 3449.00 USD, and bottomed at 3430.00 USD per ounce [2] - COMEX Silver: Opened at 37.94 USD, peaked at 38.24 USD, and bottomed at 37.94 USD per ounce [2] Economic Factors - The U.S. Treasury auctioned 42 billion USD of 10-year bonds, with a bid yield of 4.255%, the lowest since December of the previous year, indicating weak buyer demand, particularly from international buyers [3] - The auction results led to a rise in bond yields and a decline in the dollar index, which supported gold prices [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Cook's comments on non-farm payroll data adjustments heightened market expectations for potential changes in monetary policy [3] Market Sentiment - On August 6, COMEX gold experienced high volatility, closing at 3431.8 USD per ounce, down 0.08%, while domestic SHFE gold closed at 781.96 CNY per gram, down 0.29% [4] - The market sentiment is leaning towards a dovish outlook, suggesting that gold prices may continue to rise in the short term, especially if trade negotiations do not yield expected results [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the recent fluctuations in gold prices, influenced by profit-taking behavior and economic data releases [2][3][4] - Gold prices experienced a slight decline due to profit-taking after reaching a near two-week high, with the current trading around $3369.19 per ounce [2][3] - The market is currently in a state of balance, supported by concerns over economic slowdown and geopolitical risks, while also facing pressure from short-term profit-taking [3][4] Group 2 - The expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has significantly increased, driven by weak employment data and geopolitical tensions [3][4] - The U.S.-China trade relationship remains a focal point, with potential tariffs on Russian oil purchases adding to market uncertainty, which could elevate gold's safe-haven demand [3][4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is in a short-term bullish trend, but caution is advised due to potential price reversals at high levels [4][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are expected to remain strong due to high gold inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses, a decline in the US ISM non - manufacturing index, increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, and rising risk - aversion sentiment [3]. - Copper prices showed a slight upward trend on Monday and Tuesday as a correction of the previous decline. COMEX copper's decline may slightly boost the valuations of other copper markets, but investors should be wary of weak copper demand [15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to face pressure and fluctuate. Alumina prices are likely to be weak in the short term, while casting aluminum alloy shows good fundamentals [36]. - Zinc prices are expected to maintain a range - bound movement, with limited downside space. Attention should be paid to macro data, market sentiment, and supply - side disruptions [65]. - For the nickel industry, the nickel ore price is stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream products are showing differentiation. Stainless steel prices are oscillating strongly, and the future trend of nickel sulfate needs further attention [80]. - Tin prices have strong resilience. Supply - side issues remain unresolved, and if the situation drags on, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand has not been fully reflected [96]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to market rhythm changes and position risks [112]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are expected to maintain a volatile trend. The upcoming industrial silicon conference is worthy of attention [121]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - Gold inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange - related warehouses hit a record high, with over 36 tons of gold bars registered as deliverable goods, doubling from last month, indicating active arbitrage and strong investment demand [3]. - The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July dropped to 50.1, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut (90% probability of a rate cut in September). Trump's announcement of tariff hikes on countries like India also boosted risk - aversion sentiment, leading to an increase in the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF for two consecutive days, supporting the strong performance of gold prices [3]. Copper - Copper prices corrected the previous decline on Monday and Tuesday. The price difference between LME copper and COMEX copper has stabilized, and COMEX copper's decline may slightly increase the valuations of other copper markets. However, weak copper demand remains a concern [15]. - The latest prices and daily changes of various copper futures and spot products are provided, including Shanghai copper futures, LME copper, and copper spot prices in different regions [16][24]. - Copper import profit and loss, processing fees, refined - scrap price differences, and warehouse receipt data are presented [28][31][32]. Aluminum - Macro - level drivers for aluminum have weakened. Domestic demand is in the off - season, but low absolute inventories support aluminum prices, which are expected to face pressure and fluctuate [36]. - Alumina production capacity is high and in surplus, with rising inventories. The warehouse receipt issue may be resolved in August, and prices are likely to be weak [36]. - Casting aluminum alloy has good fundamentals, with strong support from scrap aluminum prices on the supply side and decent short - term demand [36]. Zinc - Zinc supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and processing fees are expected to increase this month. Mine supply is abundant, and inventories have been accumulating. Demand is weak in the off - season, and prices are expected to remain range - bound [65]. - The latest prices and changes of zinc futures and spot products, as well as inventory data, are provided [66][71][74]. Nickel - The August first - phase nickel product benchmark price in Indonesia has been released. Nickel ore prices are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream products are showing differentiation [80]. - Nickel iron prices have been slowly declining in the past two weeks, with some support from the supply side due to the expected increase in steel mill production in August [80]. - Stainless steel prices are oscillating strongly, and the stability of the current price level needs further verification. Attention should be paid to whether demand can pick up in August [80]. Tin - Tin prices rose slightly on Tuesday, indicating strong resilience. Supply - side issues from Myanmar's production resumption are uncertain, and if the situation persists, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand has not been fully reflected [96]. - The latest prices and changes of tin futures and spot products, as well as inventory data, are provided [97][103][105]. Lithium Carbonate - Short - term supply - side disruptions exist, and production scheduling in August is expected to improve. Prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to market rhythm changes and position risks [112]. - The latest prices and changes of lithium carbonate futures and spot products, as well as inventory data, are provided [113][115][119]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The upcoming industrial silicon conference is worthy of attention [121]. - The polysilicon market is mainly driven by macro - level sentiment, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [121]. - The latest prices of industrial silicon spot products, futures prices, and related data such as basis and price differences are provided [122][124].