日本通胀终于降温了！6月CPI回落至3.3%，主要受大米价格涨幅放缓推动。不过，这已是日本通胀连续第39个月超过央行2%的目标，凸显持续的 价格压力。 7月18日，日本总务省公布的数据显示，日本6月CPI从5月的29个月高点回落至3.3%，符合经济学家预期，主要受大米价格涨幅放缓推动。 数据显示，剔除价格波动较大的新鲜食品，6月核心CPI从5月的3.7%回落至3.3%。 尽管通胀有所降温，但这已是日本通胀连续第39个月超过央行2%的目标。更受日本央行关注的"核心-核心"CPI实际上从3.3%上升至3.4%，显示潜 在通胀压力依然存在。 "如果日元贬值持续，进口价格上涨可能推高物价。随着实际工资下降和经济前景不确定性加剧，预计消费支出将持续谨慎。" 多重风险云集 道富环球投资管理亚太区经济学家Krishna Bhimavarapu也对通胀缓解表示欢迎，但指出更高关税进一步复杂化了日本的经济前景。 大米价格压力显著缓解 推动通胀降温的主要因素是大米价格涨势放缓，表明政府释放储备粮措施开始显效。 数据显示，日本6月大米价格同比涨幅从5月的101.7%降至6月的100.2%，尽管仍处于超过半个世纪以来的最快增长水平。 ...

多晶硅盘中巨震振幅高达6.67%，最高触及4.6万关口，此后高位回落再次企稳4.3万之上。 多晶硅期价冲高回落 机构：短期或延续偏强整理 17日，广州期货交易所(下称"广期所")发布《关于对多晶硅期货实施交易限额及调整工业硅期货SI2509合约交易限额的通知》。 截至7月18日，本周多晶硅(N型致密料)市场均价46.2元/千克，即期制造成本约40.08元/千克，即期单公斤净利约为6.1元/千克。价格方 面，本周多晶硅N型致密料均价环比上涨5.7元/千克。成本方面，硅粉价格上涨，成本环比上涨0.53元/千克，本周多晶硅环节净利润环比 上涨5.17元/千克。(Mysteel) 银河期货表示，近期多晶硅市场传言较多，且主要交易"反内卷"、不低于成本销售。本周多晶硅、硅片、电池、组件均召开相关会议， 确定标杆成本及价格，多晶硅价格上涨已顺利向下传导，需进一步关注电站环节动向。当前主力合约涨超45000元/吨，理论上厂家卖交 割已不再低于完全成本。价格已至高位，前期多单可止盈离场，新进多单可日内操作。工业硅方面，银河期货分析称，近两周期货价格 走强，西北硅厂向贸易商大量出货，工业硅库存由工厂转移至贸易商，部分显性库存隐 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - The precious metals market showed significant divergence, with gold prices dropping from $3330 to a low of $3310 due to a stronger dollar and reduced rate cut expectations [1] - Silver, on the other hand, increased by 0.55% but faced resistance at the $38 level [1] - Despite strong economic data and rising U.S. stock markets, global economic weakness continues to provide support for precious metals [1] Group 2: U.S. Tariff Policy and Economic Impact - The Trump administration's tariff policy is a focal point, with Japan negotiating to avoid a 25% tariff, which will take effect if no agreement is reached by August 1 [2] - June import prices rose by only 0.1% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3%, indicating that foreign exporters have not fully absorbed tariff costs [2] - The increase in import prices suggests a direct impact of tariffs on prices, potentially raising inflation expectations further [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold - Current short-term support for gold is at $3337, with other indicators showing a bullish arrangement, although the overall trend appears to be downward [3] - Key support is noted around $3320, with strong support at the $3300 level if prices drop further [3] - Resistance levels to watch include $3358-$3360, with a breakthrough potentially leading to testing $3377 [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Silver - Silver prices are currently consolidating around the $38 level, with a daily close above this level opening the door for upward recovery [4] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that buyers are in control, but a flat RSI slope suggests a lack of catalysts for establishing new positions [4] - For a bullish outlook, silver must break above $38.50, with subsequent targets at $39.00, $39.50, and $40.00 [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing tariff negotiations between the US and major trading partners, including Japan, with President Trump indicating a potential 25% tariff on Japan as a pressure tactic [2] - Trump also mentioned the possibility of a trade agreement with India and plans to impose tariffs on over 150 minor trading partners, signaling a broadening of the tariff strategy [2] - Concerns are raised by various institutions regarding the impact of Trump's tariff policies on global supply chains, predicting a 0.5 percentage point decrease in global economic growth this year [2] Group 2 - The article highlights internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, with Chairman Powell expressing concerns about rising unemployment and inflation risks, despite recent CPI and PPI data being below expectations [3][4] - Some Federal Reserve officials advocate for immediate action rather than waiting for employment market deterioration, indicating a split in strategy regarding interest rate adjustments [4] - The potential for a "credibility crisis" at the Federal Reserve is noted, with candidates for the next chair emphasizing the importance of the Fed's independence while navigating the pressures from the Trump administration [4][5] Group 3 - Wall Street expresses strong concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence, with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warning that interference could lead to adverse outcomes [5] - Analysts suggest that a perceived weakening of the Fed's independence could lead to significant volatility in financial assets, particularly in the US bond market [5] - The article mentions the initiation of the selection process for the next Federal Reserve chair, indicating a potentially unusual transition in leadership [6]

Core Viewpoint - The prices of large-size LCD panels have decreased for the first time in nine months, with a 2% drop in June due to reduced demand and supply adjustments by manufacturers in response to previous urgent shipments before tariff increases by the U.S. government [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - The average price of the TFT 55-inch Open Cell panel was approximately $127 in June, down $2 (2%) from the previous month, while the TFT 32-inch Open Cell price fell by $1 (3%) to around $36, marking the first price drop in nine months [2]. - The overall factory operating rate for global TV panel production decreased from 86% in April to 80% in May, indicating a significant reduction in supply [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Manufacturers are reducing factory operating rates to balance supply and demand, with the operating rate for the "10.5 generation" factories producing 65-inch and 75-inch panels dropping from 96% in April to 77% in May [3]. - Despite a recovery in factory operating rates to 83% in June, the combination of increased production and declining demand is exerting downward pressure on prices [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Counterpoint Research predicts that TV shipments to the U.S. will decrease by 2.5% in 2025 compared to 2024, falling to 47.72 million units, reflecting a potential decline in demand [3]. - The Japanese Electronics and Information Technology Industries Association (JEITA) reported a 1.9% year-on-year decrease in flat-panel TV shipments in Japan from January to May, with the largest decline seen in the 50-59 inch category, which dropped by 5.8% [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - Copper: Overnight, LME copper rose 0.43% to $9,678/ton, and SHFE copper主力 rose 0.46% to 78,260 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import remained in a loss, but the loss narrowed. US retail sales in June alleviated concerns about consumer spending contraction. LME and Comex copper inventories increased, while domestic social copper inventories decreased. Copper demand showed a short - term recovery, but the off - season led to weak consumption. There is no significant positive factor for copper, and its price trend is unclear. A 50% copper tariff may cause short - term high volatility [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all trended strongly. Guinea's policy on bauxite raised cost concerns. Domestic factors and low inventory levels supported the price. The near - month contract is expected to remain strong, and trading within the 20,000 - level range is recommended. The off - season effect is more obvious for aluminum alloy [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel rose 0.5% to $15,065/ton, and沪镍 rose 0.72% to 120,490 yuan/ton. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories decreased. In the stainless - steel industry, inventories of different series changed, and in the new - energy industry, demand and production increased slightly. The short - term trend is oscillatory, and overseas policy impacts should be watched out for [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight price increases in LME and SHFE copper. The US economic data influenced the market. Inventory changes were mixed, with an increase in overseas and a decrease in domestic social inventories. Demand recovered slightly but was still weak due to the off - season. The price trend is unclear, and a potential tariff may cause volatility [1]. - **Aluminum**: All aluminum - related products trended strongly. Cost concerns from Guinea's policy and domestic factors supported the price. The near - month contract is expected to be strong, and the off - season affects aluminum alloy more [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Price increases in LME and沪镍. Inventory decreases in LME and SHFE. Changes in stainless - steel and new - energy industry inventories and production. The short - term trend is oscillatory, and overseas policies may cause disturbances [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Price changes in various copper products, including flat - water copper, scrap copper, etc. Inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and social inventories. Changes in LME0 - 3 premium, CIF提单, and active contract import profit and loss [3]. - **Lead**: Price decreases in various lead products. Inventory increases in LME and上期所. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [3]. - **Aluminum**: Price increases in无锡 and南海 aluminum quotes. Inventory changes in LME,上期所, and social inventories. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [4]. - **Nickel**: Price decreases in金川镍 and some nickel - related products. Inventory changes in LME,上期所, and social inventories. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算价 rose 0.3%. Inventory changes in上期所 and LME. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [5]. - **Tin**: The主力结算价 fell 0.7%. Inventory changes in上期所 and LME. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot升贴水**: Charts show the spot升贴 water trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [13][16][17]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [19][21][23]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [26][28][30]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [39][41][43]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, a senior researcher with over a decade of experience, Wang Heng, who focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi, who focuses on lithium - nickel research [46][47].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocates for a 25 basis point interest rate cut to support a weakening labor market, contrasting with other officials who believe employment remains strong [1][2] - Waller emphasizes that inflation is close to the target level of 2%, and the risks of rising inflation are limited, suggesting that policy adjustments should focus on underlying inflation rather than tariff impacts [1][2] - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. has shown lower-than-expected growth in June, marking the fifth consecutive month of such trends, although recent data indicates that tariffs imposed by President Trump are starting to affect prices [1][2] Group 2 - Waller notes that inflation expectations remain stable and wage growth has not accelerated, which alleviates concerns about persistent inflation, while the risks of a weakening job market have increased significantly [2] - Economic growth is slowing, with an estimated growth rate of about 1% for the first half of the year, and a continued low growth outlook is expected through the remainder of 2025 [2] - Other policymakers, including Governor Kugler and New York Fed President Williams, express concerns about the inflationary impact of tariffs and prefer to delay interest rate cuts [3] Group 3 - Kugler argues that the Fed should not cut rates for some time as tariffs are beginning to affect consumer prices, indicating that a tight monetary policy is still necessary to curb inflation expectations [3] - Williams anticipates that tariffs will have a more significant impact on inflation in the coming months, supporting the current tightening policy as appropriate [3] - Futures contracts suggest that investors expect the Fed to maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting, with a slightly higher probability of a rate cut in September [3]

Core Viewpoint - The silver price is experiencing short-term pressure due to strong U.S. economic data supporting the Federal Reserve's decision to delay interest rate cuts, but long-term inflationary pressures from tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to support silver prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The latest paper silver price is trading at 8.793 yuan per gram, with a slight increase of 0.27% [1]. - Tariff policy uncertainties are bolstering silver's safe-haven appeal, despite short-term pressure from rising dollar and yields [2]. - The escalating trade tensions may heighten market risk aversion, potentially leading to a rebound in paper silver prices [2]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations - The EU is urged to act swiftly and firmly in U.S. tariff negotiations, with a deadline set for August 1, after which a 30% tariff on EU goods may be imposed [2]. - Japan is in urgent talks with the U.S. to avoid a 25% tariff, which will take effect if no agreement is reached by August 1 [2]. - Recent data shows that June import prices rose only 0.1% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%, indicating that foreign exporters have not fully absorbed tariff costs [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Paper silver opened at 8.719, reached a high of 8.782, and closed at 8.769, forming a long lower shadow hammer pattern [3]. - Resistance levels for paper silver are noted at 8.82-8.83, while support is seen at 8.60-8.70 [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold and silver continue to fluctuate. The better - than - expected US economic data has cooled the expectation of the Fed's early interest rate cut, causing the US dollar to stabilize and putting pressure on gold and silver. The impact of the US tariff policy is currently smaller than feared, but the subsequent impact may gradually increase. The implementation of large - scale bills in the US further boosts the expectation of fiscal deficit. The long - term drivers of gold still provide support, but the upward movement is hesitant at high prices. Silver is relatively strong due to the boost from industrial products. Gold and silver may continue to show a relatively strong performance, and the risk of Trump's threats being realized needs to be vigilant [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Changes**: For gold futures, the closing prices of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are 774.36 and 778.76 respectively, with increases of 0.40 and 0.38, and the increase rates are both 0.05%. For silver futures, the closing prices of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are 9178.00 and 9224.00 respectively, with increases of 38.00, and the increase rates are 0.42% and 0.41% respectively. The trading volumes of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are 47780 and 43343 respectively, and the trading volumes of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are 102682 and 76697 respectively [2]. - **Spot Market and Related Ratios**: The price of London gold has decreased by 1.28, with a decrease rate of - 0.17%. The price of London silver has decreased by 1.24, with a decrease rate of - 0.16%. The ratio of gold to silver (spot) is 84.50, and the ratio of Shanghai silver to London silver is 7.18 [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold remains unchanged at 28,872 kilograms. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver has increased by 4,296.00 kilograms to 1,217,085 kilograms. The inventory of COMEX gold has increased by 346,352.72 ounces to 37,143,884 ounces, and the inventory of COMEX silver has decreased by 493426 ounces to 496,688,541 ounces [2]. Macro News - **US Legislative Actions**: The US House of Representatives has passed the "Genius Act" to reform the regulation of cryptocurrencies, which will be submitted to President Trump for signature. It has also passed the "Clarity Act" to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets, which will be submitted to the Senate for review [3]. - **Japan - US Trade**: In June, Japan's auto exports to the US decreased by 26.7% year - on - year, and its total exports to the US decreased by 11.4% year - on - year to 1.71 trillion yen, with a widening decline [3]. - **US Employment and Retail Sales**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 7000 to 221,000, reaching the lowest level since mid - April. US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, higher than the expected 0.1%, mainly driven by auto sales [3][4]. Comment and Strategy - **Market Situation**: The US retail sales growth rate far exceeded expectations. The expectation of the Fed's early interest rate cut has cooled, and the US dollar has stabilized, putting pressure on gold and silver. The long - term drivers of gold still exist, but the upward movement is hesitant at high prices. Silver is relatively strong due to industrial support [5]. - **Risk Factors**: The risk of Trump's tariff threats being realized needs to be vigilant, and the subsequent impact of the US tariff policy may gradually increase [5].

周五（7月18日）亚盘时段，国际白银价格窄幅震荡，最新白银价格交投于38.17美元，涨幅0.12%，特 朗普政府的关税政策是当前市场关注的焦点，关税政策的不确定性为白银的避险功能提供了支撑。 国际银价在从周低点37.50美元反弹后稳定在37.85美元上方，但白银行情仍偏向上行。动量方面，相对 强弱指标（RSI）偏向向上，表明多头掌控局面。 若银价攀升至38.00美元上方，则将为进一步上行扫清道路。下一个阻力位将是38.50美元，随后是今年 至今高点39.12美元，接着是39.50美元和40.00美元。 反之，如果白银价格跌破37.00美元，空头可能会将银价推向20日移动均线36.78美元，随后测试36.00美 元。 日本正与美国商务部长就避免25%关税进行紧急谈判，若8月1日前无法达成协议，关税将正式生效。路 透社报道显示，6月进口价格环比仅上涨0.1%，低于预期的0.3%，但来自中国、日本和欧盟的进口价格 涨势强劲，表明外国出口商并未完全吸收关税成本。富国银行高级经济学家Sarah House指出，进口价 格的上涨显示出关税对物价的直接影响，这可能进一步推高通胀预期。 尽管短期内银价受到美元和收益率上涨的压 ...