Core Viewpoint - President Donald Trump announced that Treasury Secretary Scott Bentsen will not be considered for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman, narrowing the search for Jerome Powell's successor and clarifying previous uncertainties surrounding the matter [1][2]. Group 1: Trump's Decision and Its Implications - Trump's decision to remove Bentsen from consideration highlights a dynamic shift in the administration's approach to the Federal Reserve [1][2]. - Bentsen, previously a hedge fund leader, has become a key figure in Trump's economic and trade policies, noted for his strong support of Trump's economic agenda and criticism of the Fed for not lowering interest rates as requested [2][4]. Group 2: Bentsen's Position and Future - Bentsen has publicly stated that he believes his current role is the "best job in Washington" and expressed a desire to remain in his position as long as the President deems it appropriate [5][10]. - Despite stepping back from the Fed Chairman candidacy, Bentsen has played a significant role in the selection process for Powell's successor, advocating for an internal review of the Fed [5][10]. Group 3: Criticism of Powell and Future Candidates - Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell for being slow to cut interest rates and has expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed's costly renovation project [4][7]. - Potential candidates for Powell's successor include Kevin Hassett, Kevin Walsh, Michelle Bowman, and Christopher Waller, with Bentsen's withdrawal clarifying the competitive landscape for the position [10].

Juno markets发现美联储理事库格勒上周突然宣布辞职，这一意外举动让一个原本看似已逐渐淡化的场 景再度浮现 —— 其背后潜藏的连锁反应，很可能对美联储未来的政策执行产生重要影响。 随着这个颇具影响力的美联储理事会席位出现空缺，前总统特朗普如今在人事安排上拥有了多种战略选 择。其中备受关注的一种可能，便是任命所谓的 "影子主席"，其主要职责是在现任主席鲍威尔的继任 者确定之前，扮演 "挑事者" 的角色，对美联储的决策过程施加影响。 这一可能性的出现，引出了一个耐人寻味的问题：向来以同僚合作和 "象牙塔式" 政策制定方式著称的 美联储，如今或许不得不面对突如其来的政治阴谋。长期以来，美联储作为美国的中央银行，一直致力 于维持其独立性，以科学、客观的态度制定货币政策，不受短期政治因素的干扰。其决策过程注重专家 意见的交流与融合，强调集体智慧的发挥，这种运作模式为其赢得了市场的广泛信任。 但此次理事会席位的空缺，可能成为政治力量渗透的突破口。特朗普若选择任命一个 "刺头" 式的人 物，其目的很可能是为了刁难现任主席鲍威尔。这类人选可能会在美联储内部不断提出异议，对鲍威尔 主导的政策方向进行质疑和挑战，打乱正常 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, criticized the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, suggesting that political considerations may have influenced their actions, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [1][3]. Federal Reserve Actions - Hassett pointed out seemingly contradictory actions by the Federal Reserve, including a 50 basis point rate cut before the presidential election and two additional 25 basis point cuts afterward, followed by a decision to maintain rates despite signs of labor market weakness [3][4]. - The Fed's explanation for maintaining stable rates this year was based on concerns over potential inflation due to tariff increases by the Trump administration, attempting to link decisions to economic fundamentals rather than political factors [3][4]. Political Influence Concerns - Despite the Fed's denials of political influence in decision-making, doubts persist, especially given the Trump administration's criticism of the Fed's monetary policy and the president's actions regarding economic data credibility [3][4]. - Hassett, a potential candidate to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, defended the dismissal of the Labor Statistics Bureau head, arguing it was aimed at ensuring data accuracy, while also criticizing Powell for failing to prevent partisan divisions within the Fed [4]. Implications for Market and Society - The debate over whether the Fed's decisions are politically influenced adds uncertainty to the market, complicating investment strategies as investors must consider both economic data and political factors [5]. - The public is highly concerned about the Fed's interest rate decisions, as they directly impact daily life, including mortgage and loan repayments, and overall living costs [5]. - The ongoing discourse reflects a deeper societal contemplation regarding the relationship between the government and the central bank, highlighting the challenge of maintaining Fed independence while aligning its policies with national economic goals [5].

Core Viewpoint - The sudden resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has reopened discussions about potential political maneuvering within the Fed, particularly regarding Trump's influence on future appointments and policy direction [1][2]. Group 1: Implications of Resignation - Waller's unexpected departure creates a vacancy that Trump can strategically fill, potentially appointing a "shadow chair" to challenge current Chair Powell before a permanent successor is named [1][2]. - The timing of Waller's resignation complicates the situation, as the new appointee would only serve a few months before needing Senate confirmation for a longer term [2][4]. Group 2: Trump's Strategic Options - Trump has two main options: appoint a temporary replacement for Waller or expedite the selection of a preferred candidate for the Fed chair position [2][6]. - The "shadow chair" option aligns with Trump's management style, which favors competition and performance evaluation among candidates [4][5]. Group 3: Potential Candidates and Market Reactions - Trump has indicated he is considering several candidates for the Fed chair position, including former Governor Kevin Warsh and current Governor Christopher Waller [7][8]. - Concerns have been raised about Trump's push for significant interest rate cuts, which could undermine the Fed's independence and create market uncertainty [5][9].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming nomination of a new Federal Reserve Board member and potential successor to Chairman Jerome Powell by President Trump is expected to significantly influence future monetary policy and challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][9]. Group 1: Nomination Process - Federal Reserve Board member Adriana Kugler announced her resignation effective August 8, allowing Trump to quickly nominate a new member, potentially setting the stage for selecting the next Fed Chair [2]. - Trump has narrowed down the list of candidates for the next Fed Chair to four individuals, with Scott Bessent expressing no interest in the position [3]. - The candidates include Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett, with Christopher J. Waller also being a popular choice among market participants [3][7]. Group 2: Candidate Profiles - Kevin Warsh is viewed as a strong candidate with a hawkish stance on monetary policy, emphasizing the need for balance sheet reduction before considering interest rate cuts [7][8]. - Kevin Hassett is seen as a more dovish candidate, advocating for immediate rate cuts to stimulate economic growth, aligning closely with Trump's preferences [7][8]. - Christopher J. Waller has expressed concerns about inflation and has voted against maintaining current interest rates, indicating a potential alignment with Trump's desire for looser monetary policy [8]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's ongoing pressure on the Federal Reserve, including criticism of Powell, raises concerns about the institution's independence and the potential for political interference in monetary policy [9][11]. - Historical examples illustrate that the Federal Reserve has faced political pressures in the past, which could impact its credibility and decision-making [11]. - Analysts suggest that if a candidate aligned with Trump's views is appointed, it could negatively affect the overall outlook for U.S. dollar assets [12]. Group 4: Market Expectations for Rate Cuts - Recent economic data, including disappointing employment figures, has led to increased expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a 87.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut [13][16]. - Analysts predict that the Fed may implement multiple rate cuts in the coming months, with discussions around the possibility of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut if economic conditions worsen [16][17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant fluctuations in international gold prices, driven by a sharp decline in U.S. non-farm payroll data and changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership, which have reignited interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm employment data released in July caused a dramatic shift in market expectations regarding monetary policy, leading to a more than 2% increase in gold prices in a single day, surpassing the $3400 mark [1] - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler has raised concerns about the independence of the central bank, with potential successors likely to favor policies that align with political demands, further undermining the credibility of the dollar [1] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the need for ordinary investors to break through information barriers in a rapidly changing market, with Sina Finance's gold channel emerging as a key decision-making hub for gold investors [1][3] - The gold channel offers comprehensive market coverage, including real-time links to international gold prices, domestic market data, and tracking of related assets such as gold stocks and the U.S. dollar index [1] - The platform provides exclusive insights, including updates on global central bank gold reserves and ETF holdings, ensuring investors have access to authoritative information [3] Group 4 - The gold channel features a 24/7 news service that delivers instant updates on various market-moving events, from Federal Reserve decisions to geopolitical conflicts [5] - It facilitates a community for investors to share trading strategies and insights, catering to both short-term traders and long-term gold holders [7] - The article concludes that in the face of market volatility, investors can find their own guiding compass through the information matrix provided by Sina Finance's gold channel [7]

美联储理事Adriana Kugler意外宣布辞职，给特朗普"重塑"美联储提供了关键筹码。 上周，美联储理事Adriana Kugler意外宣布本周五离职，较原定任期提前约六个月。据央视新闻，特朗 普在周二的讲话中表示可能很快宣布美联储新任主席，美联储理事的人选决定将于本周末做出。 这可能成为特朗普在明年5月鲍威尔主席任期到期前在委员会中"安插自己人选"的唯一机会。按照规 定，美国总统只能从美联储理事会成员中选择美联储主席。 据媒体援引知情人士消息，特朗普正在认真考虑让Kugler的继任者成为下一任美联储主席。 华尔街见闻此前提及，特朗普周二表示，将潜在的未来美联储主席范围缩小到四名候选人，包括两位凯 文——前美联储理事凯文·沃什和美国国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特，第四名候选人身份未披露，不 包括财政部长贝森特。 分析师指出，被提名的候选人需要在保持美联储独立性与展现对特朗普政策忠诚度之间寻求平衡，这种 微妙处境可能损害其作为未来主席的可信度。 意外辞职为特朗普创造提前布局机会 美联储主席必须从理事会成员中选择，而鲍威尔作为理事的任期要到2028年才结束。在特朗普任期内， 没有其他现任理事的任期会到期。 K ...

美联储上周五宣布，理事阿德里安娜·库格勒（Adriana Kugler）将于8月8日正式离任。这位2023年9月就 任、原定任期至2026年1月的理事，上周因个人原因缺席了联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC)会议。 特朗普将其称为"一个令人愉快的惊喜"。特朗普表示，将从四位候选人中挑选库格勒的继任者，或许会 利用库格勒留下的空缺来挑选未来的美联储主席。 库格勒离职之际，白宫正对美联储施加史无前例的公开压力，特朗普频繁对鲍威尔进行人身攻击。因鲍 威尔坚持反对降息，特朗普称其"太愤怒、太愚蠢、太政治化"，并要求其辞职。 新华财经北京8月6日电（马萌伟）当地时间5日，美国总统特朗普表示，可能很快宣布美联储新任主 席，美联储理事的人选决定将于本周末做出。 特朗普表示，主席候选人已缩减至国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）、美联储前理事凯 文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）以及其他两人。特朗普未透露另外两人姓名，但外界猜测其中一位是现任美联 储理事沃勒（Christopher Waller）。 目前，货币市场定价暗示美联储在9月降息的概率高达94.4%。在市场对9月降息押注迅速升温之际，特 朗普此番人 ...

另一方面，为回应俄罗斯前总统德米特里·梅德韦杰夫发表的挑衅性言论，特朗普下达指令，在俄罗斯 周边部署两艘核潜艇。梅德韦杰夫曾宣称，特朗普所发出的每一项新最后通牒都将被视作威胁行为，且 是迈向战争的危险一步。 在这场旷日持久的俄乌冲突背景下，此举无疑加剧了地缘政治局势进一步恶化的风险。而这种紧张氛围 可能成为另一关键变量，为避险类商品提供支撑，并对相关货币的进一步贬值形成制约。 目前，交易商们正密切关注美国工厂订单数据的公布情况。结合市场对美联储降息的预期，该数据有望 提振美元需求。此外，整体风险情绪的变化也将为黄金走势注入一定动能。 今日周二（8月5日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于782.80附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报783.26元/ 克，涨幅0.36%，最高触及786.18元/克，最低下探782.38元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向震荡走 势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 在令人倍感沮丧的就业数据披露仅数小时后，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普便果断下令解除劳工统计局局长 的职务。与此同时，美联储理事阿德里亚娜·库格勒也辞去了其在央行董事会中的职位。 当下，美联储正承受着来自政治层面的持续施压 ...

据央视新闻报道，美联储在结束了为期两天的货币政策会议后，宣布维持联邦基金利率目标区间在 4.25% 至 4.50% 之间不变，这已是今年美联储连续第五 次做出维持利率不变的决定。 此次议息会议，美联储内部出现了罕见的分歧，投票结果为 9 票赞成、2 票反对，反对的 2 位理事是负责美联储监管事务的副主席米歇尔・鲍曼和理事克里 斯托弗・沃勒，他们均由特朗普任命，且此前一直倾向于降息 25 个基点。 特朗普（资料图） 在议息会议前，市场普遍预计美联储 9 月降息的概率超过 65%，10 月底前降息基本板上钉钉。然而，美联储主席鲍威尔在会后的新闻发布会上的一番言 论，犹如一盆冷水泼向了市场，降息预期瞬间降温。鲍威尔表示，现在就断言美联储是否会像金融市场预期的那样在 9 月下调联邦基金利率还为时过早，美 联储尚未就 9 月利率做出任何决定，将在下次议息会议前夕参考有关经济的信息。 鲍威尔此番表态，无疑是给市场预期来了个 "大反转"，也狠狠打了那些期望降息的人的脸。而这一结果，也让特朗普大怒。特朗普近期一直在向美联储施 压，要求其降息，他在社交平台上发文称 "我们的美联储利率至少高出 3 个百分点，每年使美国损失 36 ...