2025 年 05 月 18 日 市场哑铃型交易，北证新消费强势、 科技主题活跃 ——北交所策略周报（20250512-20250518） 本周策略观点： 本周市场行情： 北交所新股： 新三板动态： ⚫ 本周新挂牌 7 家，摘牌 3 家，周新增计划融资 1.70 亿元，完成融资 0.07 亿元。 风险提示： ⚫ 个股业绩季度波动过大风险，宏观经济下行的风险。 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 刘靖 A0230512070005 liujing@swsresearch.com 王雨晴 A0230522010003 wangyq@swsresearch.com 研究支持 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 新 三 板 研 究 专 题 郑菁华 A0230123060001 zhengjh@swsresearch.com 汪秉涵 A0230123090006 wangbh@swsresearch.com 吕靖华 A0230124070002 lvjh@swsresearch.com 联系人 汪秉涵 (8621)23297818× wangbh@swsresea ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of "Henan bosses," particularly focusing on the management styles of two prominent figures, Cui Peijun and Yu Donglai, who emphasize generosity and employee welfare as key components of their business strategies [3][5][9]. Group 1: Management Styles - Cui Peijun, chairman of Henan Mining Crane Company, is known for his unconventional approach of distributing cash rewards to employees during company events, exemplifying a hands-on and generous management style [3][15]. - Yu Donglai, the owner of Pang Donglai, promotes a philosophy of sharing profits with employees, suggesting that over 50% of profits should be distributed monthly to enhance employee motivation [5][22]. - Both bosses prioritize tangible rewards over abstract promises, focusing on immediate benefits for employees rather than future stock options or vague incentives [11][12][14]. Group 2: Employee Welfare - Employees at Pang Donglai enjoy extensive benefits, including 150 to 180 days of leave per year, with specific days allocated for emotional well-being [20]. - The average salaries at Pang Donglai are significantly higher than industry standards, reflecting the company's commitment to employee welfare [21]. - Cui Peijun also engages in various acts of kindness, such as providing free travel for employees' parents and spontaneous cash bonuses [19][16]. Group 3: Business Philosophy - The article highlights a shift in consumer preferences towards value and practicality, aligning with the straightforward business philosophies of Henan entrepreneurs [45][47]. - Henan's businesses, such as Mixue Ice City and White Elephant Instant Noodles, thrive on a model that emphasizes cost-effectiveness and direct engagement with consumers [29][50]. - The cautious and practical approach of Henan bosses, who often avoid high-risk capital ventures, has allowed them to maintain stable cash flows and build resilient businesses [34][68]. Group 4: Market Position - The emergence of Henan-based companies in the market is attributed to their ability to adapt to changing consumer demands for affordability and quality [44][46]. - The article notes that despite lacking the scale of coastal economic regions, Henan's robust food supply chain supports its businesses in maintaining competitive pricing [48][52]. - The success of these companies in the current market environment suggests a potential shift in the business landscape, favoring those with solid fundamentals over those relying on speculative growth [69].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a positive economic outlook for 2025, with a focus on the recovery of the new consumption sector driven by diverse consumer demands and supportive policies [3][7][10]. Industry Overview - In Q1 2025, China's GDP reached 31.9 trillion yuan, growing by 5.4% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations [7]. - Final consumption expenditure contributed 51.85% to GDP growth, indicating a rebound in consumer spending [7][9]. - The retail sales of consumer goods totaled 12.4671 trillion yuan in Q1, marking a 4.6% increase year-on-year [8]. Recent Industry Policies - Various policies have been implemented to stimulate consumption, including the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" and measures to enhance service consumption [17][18]. - The government emphasizes increasing income for low- and middle-income groups and developing service consumption to boost economic growth [9][10]. Investment Dynamics - From January to April 2025, there were 128 financing cases in the new consumption sector, totaling 6.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.5% and 24.4% year-on-year, respectively [28]. - The food and beverage sector remains a hot spot for investment, with 42 financing cases reported in Q1 2025 [28][32]. - The silver economy and pet economy are gaining traction, with significant investments in areas such as elderly care and pet products [29][32]. Sector Trends - The new consumption landscape is characterized by a shift towards quality and health-oriented products, with personalized and customized offerings gaining popularity [10]. - The "Guzi Economy," centered around the secondary market of anime and gaming culture, is rapidly developing, driven by a growing user base and increasing disposable income among Gen Z consumers [48][49]. Key Financing Events - Notable financing events include Yuanqi Mart's nearly 100 million yuan C round financing and the IPO of Gu Ming Holdings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [20][22]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw significant IPO activities, including the successful listings of brands like Mi Xue Ice City and Ba Wang Tea Ji [24][26]. Active Investment Institutions - A total of 135 investment institutions were active in the new consumption sector in the first four months of 2025, with a focus on food and beverage, silver economy, and personal care sectors [43][44].

这是新消费智库第 2 6 3 5 期文章 新消费导读 新消费 1. 安慕希 × 绿箭推出清新薄荷味酸奶 1. 安慕希 × 绿箭推出清新薄荷味酸奶 2. 52TOYS 上线异形系列新品 3. Alexander Wang 与喜茶携手推出联名系列 4. 和其正推新养生水 5. 雀巢冠能发布抗过敏猫粮新品 6. 山东未来机器人获数亿元战略领投 7. 青岛啤酒拟收购即墨黄酒 100% 股权 8. 博裕基金拟收购北京 SKP 最高 45% 股权 9. 传欧莱雅有意收购 Medi k8 10. 白犀牛完成 2 亿元 B 轮融资 11. 斯嘉丽 · 约翰逊护肤品牌创业伙伴离职 12. PETA 呼吁爱马仕推出纯素奢侈包袋 13. 美团闪购联合百大品牌推出安心闪购计划 14. CRAFT 于上海和南京双城开店 15. 始祖鸟联手松赞推出纳木措主题系列 安慕希官宣推出与绿箭联名的夏季限定新品：清新薄荷味酸奶。该产品融合薄荷与酸奶风味，希望为消费者带来解暑与清凉体验。营养含量方 面，新品采用无蔗糖配方，每瓶含 7.1 克蛋白质。 （ FBIF 食品饮料创新） 2. 52TOYS 上线异形系列新品 52TOYS 重磅官宣「异形」系 ...

方正证券主要观点如下： 2)新趋势：功效多元化、剂型零食化，对供给端的研发能力提出更高的要求。功效方面，当前"悦己经 济"蓬勃发展，消费者对功效的期待变得更加具体且个性化，比如单个产品开发复合功效，这要求供给 端具备市场洞察捕捉各类群体的隐蔽健康痛点，同时也要具备开发循证有效产品的研发能力;剂型方 面，软糖、饮品等新兴剂型兼具适口性与便利性，有利于培养消费者的日常服用习惯，根据灼识咨询， 22-24年软糖/饮品剂型CAGR分别约为40%/30%，剂型增速领先，这要求供给端具有充足的新剂型产能 及出色的研发能力。 方正证券发布研报称，当前中国营养保健食品市场处于重要变革期，新消费驱动下行业呈现渠道多元 化、产品创新化、人群全龄化三大特征。该行重视积极把握新消费变革趋势的头部B端企业，新消费驱 动业绩增长，或有望带来板块的估值切换。建议关注积极布局新消费赛道的头部企业，推荐聚焦高价值 客户拓展的仙乐健康（300791）(300791.SZ)及布局跨境与宠物营养的百合股份（603102） (603102.SH)。该行预计，未来行业将保持中高个位数复合增长，头部企业集中度有望加速提升。 当前中国营养保健食品市场处于重 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the light industry manufacturing sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - Overall consumer demand remains weak, but there are opportunities in specific segments where product and channel transformations can enhance market share, and brand recognition or performance recovery is expected [8] - The pet food segment shows high potential with strong consumer education barriers, brand loyalty, and significant single product effects [8] - The baby care market is fragmented, with strong brands rapidly increasing market share through cost-effectiveness and popular products, heavily relying on online sales [8] - Domestic second-tier brands in sanitary napkins and toothpaste are gaining market share, utilizing platforms like Douyin for marketing and channel empowerment [8] - The trend of innovative products and brand rejuvenation in the trendy toy sector is accelerating, with companies like Pop Mart and Blokus experiencing rapid revenue growth [8] Summary by Sections 1) Product & Channel Transformation - Baiya Co. reported a significant increase in revenue and is expected to see a gradual improvement in its profitability model [9] - Dengkang Oral Care's revenue growth exceeded expectations, with a sustainable improvement in profitability [9] - Runben Co. experienced strong revenue growth driven by new product launches, particularly in the sunscreen category [9] - Zhongchong Co. is successfully transforming its brand, with expectations of over 40% growth in its flagship product [9] - Companies in the trendy toy sector are well-positioned to benefit from consumer trends and new product launches [9] 2) High Competitive Barriers - Guibao Pet's revenue and profit growth exceeded expectations, driven by strong brand performance and successful high-end product launches [10] - The overall industry remains vibrant, with companies optimizing their product and channel structures [10] 3) Performance Recovery Expected - Chenguang Co. has underperformed due to a weak consumer environment, but recovery is anticipated if market conditions improve [10] - The company is focusing on enhancing its IP product strategy, which is expected to contribute to new growth points [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the light industry manufacturing sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - Overall consumer demand remains weak, but there are opportunities in specific segments where product and channel transformations can enhance market share, and brand recognition or performance recovery is expected [2][8] - The pet food sector shows high potential with strong consumer education barriers, brand loyalty, and significant single product effects [2][8] - The baby care market is fragmented, with leading brands rapidly increasing market share through cost-effectiveness and popular products, heavily relying on online sales [2][8] - Domestic second-tier brands in sanitary napkins and toothpaste are gaining market share, utilizing platforms like Douyin for traffic generation and empowering other platforms and offline markets [2][8] - The trend of innovative products and brand rejuvenation in the trendy toy sector is accelerating, with companies like Pop Mart and Blokus experiencing rapid revenue growth [2][8] Summary by Sections 1) Product & Channel Transformation - Baiya Co. reported a significant revenue increase of 39% in Q4 2024 and 30% in Q1 2025, with a strong performance in e-commerce and a positive outlook for its probiotic series [3][9] - Dengkang Oral Care also showed robust growth, with a 39% increase in Q4 2024 and 19% in Q1 2025, benefiting from an optimized product structure and strong online sales [3][9] - Runben Co. experienced a 34% revenue increase in Q4 2024 and 44% in Q1 2025, driven by the rapid launch of new products [4][9] - The trendy toy sector, represented by companies like Blokus and Pop Mart, saw revenue growth of 156% and 278% respectively, indicating a strong market presence [4][9] 2) High Competitive Barriers - Guibao Pet's revenue and profit exceeded expectations, driven by strong growth in its proprietary brand and successful high-end product launches [10] - The overall industry remains buoyant, with companies optimizing product and channel structures, leading to sustained revenue growth and improved profitability [10] 3) Performance Recovery Expected - Chenguang Co. reported lower-than-expected performance due to a weak consumer environment, but recovery is anticipated if market conditions improve [10] - The company is focusing on enhancing its IP product strategy, which is expected to contribute to new growth points [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cuts by the central bank are expected to lead to a decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 0.1 percentage points, prompting commercial banks to lower deposit rates accordingly [1] Group 1: Deposit Strategies - Investors are advised to lock in high-yield deposits by choosing long-term deposits, such as 3-5 year large certificates of deposit (CDs) or fixed-term savings products, to secure current interest rates [2] - Some small banks are offering deposit products with interest rates exceeding 2%, such as Guangdong Huaxing Bank's 5-year CD at 2.35% and Guangzhou Bank's 3-year deposit at 2.15% [2] - Investors should also consider foreign currency deposits, with some banks offering annualized rates above 3.7% for USD deposits, but must be cautious of exchange rate fluctuations and annual purchase limits [2][4] Group 2: Structured Deposits - For investors with a certain risk tolerance, structured deposit products can be considered, with guaranteed returns ranging from 0% to 2.7% and potential maximum returns of 3.5% to 6% for guaranteed products, while non-guaranteed products can yield up to 8% [3] - It is important to monitor the performance of the underlying assets linked to structured deposits, as poor performance may lead to lower-than-expected returns [3] Group 3: Investment Portfolio Strategies - Analysts recommend diversifying investment portfolios, suggesting that risk-averse investors consider government bonds, which may benefit from the current monetary easing and global trade tensions [5][7] - For investors with higher risk tolerance, a balanced stock-bond portfolio strategy is advised to capture stable returns from fixed-income assets while participating in equity markets to benefit from policy support [7] - Focus areas for equity investments include emerging technologies such as AI, robotics, and biomedicine, as well as sectors related to consumer spending [7]

加强看多保健品：新消费新机遇，个股逻辑鲜明 20250515 摘要 • 保健品行业呈现结构性增长，2017-2022 年复合增长率为 5%，虽增速中 低，但新消费趋势下机遇涌现，如仙乐健康通过业务转型实现盈利增长， 估值提升。 • 盐津铺子受益于量贩零售渠道，尽管市场对其增速存疑虑，但长期增长潜 力仍被看好。其利润率虽短期回落，但符合大单品逻辑，在新渠道和消费 场景表现出色。 • 新消费公司涉足保健品领域，通过销售快速增长驱动业绩，个股逻辑凸显。 仙乐健康等企业通过业务转型和剥离亏损业务，实现了盈利并提高了估值。 • 保健品行业具潜力，类似几年前的蓝筹股，有重新任职机会。新品牌需拥 抱新消费路径，挖掘保健品新消费属性，通过渠道合作扩大影响力，如新 健康与 JMC 直播等合作。 • 燕之初作为燕窝代工龙头，具备采购优势和技术积累，拥有 2000 家客户 及 70 项专利。若能打通 C 端市场，实现从代工向品牌转型，估值有望提 升。 Q&A 保健品行业的现状及未来发展趋势如何？ 保健品行业在内需和食品饮料的各个细分领域中算是挖掘较晚的一个洼地。近 年来，随着若羽臣等公司的涉足，保健品行业的关注度显著提升。我们建议 ...

这其实是绿茶第三次通过港交所聆讯。 此前，绿茶曾在2022年两次通过聆讯，距离上市仅一步之遥，但由于市场环境等客观原因，绿茶未能顺 利登陆港交所，此次则是赶上了"好时机"——今年恒生指数延续去年的升势，加之消费股业绩和股价表 现具有想象力，绿茶才最终得以成行。 港股市场今年有不少消费企业刷新投资者认知的情况发生：2月26日，蜜雪集团港股公开发售正式结 束，其融资认购倍数高达5125倍，认购金额突破1.77万亿港元，刷新港股"冻资"纪录。 多次冲击资本市场未果的绿茶，终于要圆梦港交所了。 截至目前，绿茶集团已经停止认购，IPO融资认购倍数达到282.11倍，融资认购金额为341.51亿港元。 绿茶集团此次全球发行约1.7亿股，招股价为7.19港元/股，预计净集资额最高约12.1亿港元，其中30%是 老股发售。 如无意外，绿茶拟在5月16日正式在港交所挂牌上市，这是今年港股迎来的又一个消费赛道知名企业。 绿茶之前，蜜雪集团、沪上阿姨已经登录港交所并受到投资者的追捧：蜜雪集团超额认购倍数高达5125 倍，刷新了港股历史纪录；沪上阿姨认购倍数也近3400倍，是同期上市的"最热新股"之一。 消费赛道迎来IPO热潮之际， ...