楼市方面，他指出近期楼市交投及卖楼量上升，反映出市场有复苏趋势。港铁将会积极研究市场需求， 未来将推出两个新项目。 他又指，集团将优先推出屯门A16地段项目，面积达400万平方呎。他亦透露推出招标的第一期地皮达 数十万平方呎，逾千个单位，地皮只涵盖住宅，不会涉及商场部分。第二个将推出东涌项目。但他强 调，市场环境一直改变，所以集团亦一直改变销售部署，未来计划亦有可能会改变。 为适应新常态，港铁积极调整策略，定期淘汰不受欢迎的商户，引入新品牌以丰富顾客选择并满足消费 需求。凭借与铁路的无缝连接及商场上盖住宅区带来的稳定客源，港铁商场维持稳定客流，所有商场出 租率均达100%。 邓智辉强调，餐饮是港铁商场的重要支柱，因香港人外出用餐频率高，餐饮板块表现稳健。集团未来将 进一步守住餐饮业务，旗下商场餐饮占比已从过去的约20%提升至30%，未来比例有望继续上升。 港铁(00066)物业及国际业务总监邓智辉表示，受香港零售市场低迷及消费模式转变影响，租户需正视 现实并积极适应新常态。未来港铁将重点巩固餐饮板块，目前旗下所有商场出租率均达100%。另外， 集团未来将优先推出屯门A16地段项目，第二个推出东涌项目。 近年来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The survival and evolution of consumer brands heavily rely on two core genes: "deepening value perception" and "breaking through innovation" [1][10] Group 1: New Normal in Chinese Consumer Market - The Chinese consumer market has entered a "new normal" characterized by "single-digit growth," increasing complexity, and differentiation [2] - Consumer spending is increasingly influenced by actual income and assets rather than confidence levels, leading to more rational spending decisions focused on quality of life [2][3] - Notable market phenomena include the success of Labubu and the pressure on Moutai's prices, indicating a shift in consumer preferences and behaviors [2] Group 2: Shifts in Consumer Behavior - Consumers are adjusting their spending behaviors to adapt to a challenging economic environment, with a weakening correlation between consumption intention and overall willingness to spend [3] - Wealthy urban consumers plan to increase daily spending by 2.6% by 2025, focusing on tangible goods like housing and vehicles, as well as intangible services for personal fulfillment [3] - Net consumption intentions show a willingness to invest in education (34%), health products (26%), and travel (12%), while categories like home appliances and tobacco show a tendency to tighten spending [3] Group 3: Value Expectations and Spending Balance - Consumers are opting for downgraded consumption in some areas while spending lavishly in others, reflecting a shift from "having more" to "living better" [4] Group 4: Innovation in New Consumption - New consumption is seen as a deepening evolution of consumption upgrade trends, with increasing demand for practical and emotional value [6] - Innovations are driven by new technologies, concepts, and models, particularly in hot consumer sectors like IP toys, jewelry, outdoor sports, and beauty products [7] - The demand for products with high cost-performance ratios, technological content, and health benefits is becoming a breakthrough point for new consumption [8] Group 5: Challenges and Opportunities for New Consumption Brands - New consumption categories face inevitable iterations and renewals, with challenges including intensified competition and failure to keep up with demand trends [8] - Companies are encouraged to shift from short-term profit strategies to long-term sustainable practices by enhancing innovation, optimizing channels, and accelerating globalization [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes five key perspectives—stock market, real estate, exports, consumption, and technology—as essential indicators for understanding economic signals and market trends. Stock Market - Global capital flows are showing a trend of rebalancing, with funds shifting from the crowded US market to less crowded markets like Europe and Hong Kong, where the German stock market rose by 21% and Hong Kong stocks by 19% from the beginning of the year until May 21 [8] - In the first half of the year, foreign capital saw a net inflow into the Hong Kong market of $7.3 billion, while the mainland market experienced a net outflow of $5 billion [8] - For the next 12 months, major Chinese stock indices are expected to see strong earnings growth, with the Hang Seng Technology Index and Shanghai Composite Index projected to grow over 20% [14] - The recovery in consumer spending, particularly in sectors like tourism and dining, is expected to drive growth in the stock market [15] Real Estate - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a 3.2% year-on-year decline in sales from January to April 2025, which is a significant improvement compared to a 13.9% decline for the entire previous year [21] - Major cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou have seen new and second-hand home prices rise since September 2024, indicating a recovery trend [23] - The government is focusing on high-quality housing, with new regulations aimed at improving residential project standards [31] - Land acquisition efforts have accelerated, with 171 cities announcing land storage plans totaling 391.8 billion yuan, which is expected to reduce inventory pressure [34] Exports - China's exports from January to May 2025 reached $1,484.85 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with significant growth in March and April [39] - Exports to ASEAN countries grew by 12.2%, with Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia showing the highest growth rates [44] - The export of high-tech products accounted for 60% of total exports, with a notable increase in the export of batteries, which grew by 22.1% in the first four months of 2025 [48][49] - The export growth rate is expected to slow down in the second half of the year, with key policy events and US tariff deadlines being critical factors to monitor [50][51] Consumption - Despite concerns about declining consumer sentiment, a McKinsey report indicates that consumer confidence is stabilizing, particularly among rural residents and younger generations [62][64] - Urbanization is contributing to new consumer units, with the urbanization rate projected to increase from 65.2% in 2022 to 67.0% in 2024 [57] - The trend of consumers being willing to spend more of their income is improving, with the proportion of income spent on consumption expected to stabilize [58] - The 618 shopping festival showed strong performance in the 3C and home appliance sectors, indicating a potential rebound in consumer spending [72] Technology - Investment opportunities in technology are focused on sectors with increasing penetration rates, particularly in AI applications and smart driving technologies [76] - The market for humanoid robots and low-altitude economy sectors is expected to see significant growth, supported by favorable policies and reduced manufacturing costs [82] - The semiconductor industry is highlighted as a key area for profitability within the robotics sector, with substantial projected net profits for chip companies [84]

Core Insights - The report from McKinsey indicates that China's consumption market has entered a "new normal" characterized by single-digit growth, with total consumption expected to grow by only 2.3% by 2025, significantly lower than previous high growth rates [4][5] - Despite the slowdown, the consumption market remains vibrant, undergoing a complex transformation, particularly in the realm of instant retail, which is becoming a crucial growth point for consumer spending [4][6] Consumption Trends - Consumer behavior is shifting towards a more rational approach, focusing on "high-frequency small expenditures" and being cautious with "low-frequency large expenditures," which is driving growth in essential categories within instant retail [5][6] - The instant retail market in China is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025, maintaining double-digit growth, indicating a strong consumer willingness to pay for immediacy [6][12] Urbanization and Market Dynamics - Urbanization is providing a solid foundation for instant retail, with urbanization rates increasing from 65.2% in 2022 to 67.0% in 2024, leading to a 0.9% growth in urban households [6][12] - The report highlights a significant divergence in consumer confidence across different demographics, necessitating differentiated strategies in instant retail [8][15] Regional Growth and Strategic Opportunities - Instant retail in rural areas is experiencing remarkable growth, with a market size of 150 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 23.42%, driven by policy benefits and rising incomes [12][15] - The Z generation in rural areas shows a high level of optimism about the economy, presenting a strategic opportunity for instant retail platforms targeting this demographic [12][15] Consumer Spending Patterns - By 2025, the proportion of consumption relative to disposable income is expected to stabilize, indicating that consumers are optimizing their spending structure rather than reducing consumption [6][12] - The report identifies a shift in consumer decision-making from "expectation-driven" to "value-based," with consumers increasingly relying on tangible indicators like personal asset status and actual income [16][18] Instant Retail's Response to Consumer Needs - Instant retail platforms are encouraged to develop services that cater to health management and self-improvement, such as 24-hour medicine delivery and organic food options [19][20] - The emotional aspect of consumption is becoming increasingly important, with platforms needing to create "instant healing" scenarios to enhance consumer experience [20][21] Industry Challenges and Competitive Landscape - The instant retail sector faces structural challenges, including heightened price sensitivity among consumers due to employment anxieties and increased competition leading to price wars [21][22] - The need for rapid delivery increases operational costs, with last-mile delivery accounting for over 40% of total costs, posing a significant challenge for profitability [22][23] Technological Innovations and Future Directions - Companies are focusing on technological innovations to enhance operational efficiency, such as AI-driven demand forecasting and dynamic pricing strategies [23][28] - The industry is expected to evolve towards vertical specialization, with platforms concentrating on niche markets and subscription models to improve customer loyalty [23][30] Conclusion - The future of instant retail lies in balancing speed with value creation, as companies must adapt to changing consumer expectations and market dynamics to thrive in a complex environment [27][31]