Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of consumption promotion policies in the context of economic growth pressures and external demand constraints, highlighting the need for effective measures to stimulate domestic consumption and improve residents' income and spending capacity [2][3][32]. Group 1: Historical Review of Consumption Promotion Policies - China's consumption promotion policies can be categorized into direct fiscal subsidies (e.g., rural subsidies, trade-in subsidies, consumption vouchers) and indirect support policies (e.g., tax exemptions) [2][11]. - The first round of rural subsidies (2009-2012) had significant effects, with a total of 765 billion yuan invested, leading to sales of 6,597.6 billion yuan, achieving a fiscal multiplier of 8.6 [24][27]. - Local governments primarily use consumption vouchers to stimulate various sectors, including tourism and dining, with funding sources from local finances and businesses [19][21]. Group 2: Factors Restricting Consumption - Short-term constraints on consumption recovery include slow income recovery and supply-side limitations, with property and transfer income only recovering to about 75% of pre-pandemic levels [4][40]. - Structural unemployment and damaged household balance sheets further limit consumption, with housing loans constituting 53.8% of total loans, making residents sensitive to housing price fluctuations [48][50]. - Long-term demographic changes, such as aging populations and mismatched supply and demand in services, pose additional challenges to consumption growth [5][53]. Group 3: Expectations for Consumption Promotion - Future consumption policies are expected to focus on increasing income and reducing expenses, with an emphasis on improving the social security system and developing the service sector [6][64]. - The government aims to enhance service consumption, with policies potentially expanding to include subsidies for sectors like dining, accommodation, and tourism [66][69]. - Improving income distribution and social security mechanisms is anticipated to play a significant role in boosting consumption in the medium to long term [74][76].

Core Viewpoint - The service consumption sector is experiencing significant growth, particularly in areas such as tourism, dining, and entertainment, which is contributing to job creation and economic stability [1][2]. Group 1: Service Consumption and Employment - There is a strong bidirectional relationship between service consumption and employment expansion, with service sector growth leading to job creation [2]. - During the "May Day" holiday, Chengdu's international airport business district saw daily foot traffic exceeding 300,000, and surrounding outlet malls achieved daily sales surpassing 20 million yuan; Hangzhou's retail, dining, wholesale, accommodation, and entertainment sectors generated a total consumption of 4.016 billion yuan [2]. - Research indicates that for every 1% growth in the service sector, approximately 25% more job opportunities are created compared to the manufacturing sector [2]. Group 2: Policy and Market Collaboration - To maximize the employment potential of service consumption, coordinated efforts between policy and market are essential [3]. - Policy tools such as social security subsidies and rent reductions for sectors like housekeeping and childcare can help lower labor costs for businesses [3]. - Encouraging platforms like Meituan and Didi to create more crowd-sourced job opportunities and fostering partnerships between vocational schools and service industry companies can address skill mismatches [3]. Group 3: Structural Challenges and Future Outlook - Addressing structural imbalances in the labor market, such as the coexistence of labor shortages and employment difficulties, is crucial for enhancing employment effectiveness [3]. - Utilizing big data for dynamic monitoring can help in the precise allocation of labor resources, addressing issues like the saturation of service jobs in the east and talent shortages in the central and western regions [3]. - The future focus should be on creating a sustainable cycle of economic growth and social welfare through the integration of service consumption and the job market, with an emphasis on emerging industries like elderly care and data annotation [3][4].

智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，据交通运输部，五一假期前三日，全社会跨区域人员流 动总量91524万人次/同比+5.8%。结合携程数据，相较清明假期，五一黄金周游客出行距离呈现显著延 伸：五一期间跨市住宿订单占比已突破80%，连住两日及以上的深度游用户比例预期将达到20%。据国 家移民管理局预测，今年"五一"假期全国口岸日均出入境人员将达215万人次，较去年同期增长27%。 其中，受益于入境免签及境外旅客购物离境退税"即买即退"举措，携程数据显示今年五一入境游订单量 同比去年增长173%。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 五一假期前三日出游人次增长超预期，假期天数增加推动出行半径扩大 山东省：假期前三日，全省重点监测的200家旅游景区累计接待游客1648万人次/同比+7.5%，景区营业 收入合计9亿元/同比+8.1%，人均消费54.6元/同比+0.6%。上海迪士尼乐园：假期前三日，园区客流量 合计30万人次/同比+12.5%。 出入境人次维持高增长，免签政策推动入境游订单大增 据国家移民管理局预测，今年"五一"假期全国口岸日均出入境人员将达215万人次，较去年同期增长 27%。其中，受益于入境免签及境 ...

要闻 美国 4 月 ISM 服务业指数 51.6 每日晨报 2025年5月6日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:黄金进入震荡期,等待美联储降息。黄金突破区间可能需等待美联储降 息或实物黄金需求爆发。未来需要进一步观察美国经济情况,是滞胀还是衰退, 如果出现滞胀并且美联储并未降息,那么黄金大概率呈现震荡向上。如果进入 衰退,黄金会跟随其他大宗商品回调,直至美联储启动降息。黄金的震荡区间 已经被系统性的提升到 3150 美元至 3550 美元,美联储降息后黄金有望上行 至 3700 美元以上。另外,实物黄金需求旺盛或使得下半年黄金再次上行。 宏观:美国滥施关税影响初步显现——2025年4月 PMI 分析。我们认为政府 ● 债的发行使用将加快,对科技、消费和外贸三个方向重点支持。映射到投资上, 短期经济结构性的特征依旧明显,新质生产力相关行业表现更好,政策支持 ...

节前最后一个交易日市场震荡分化，三大指数涨跌不一，沪深两市当日成交额1.17万亿；6日开盘，A股 三大股迎来五月开门红，上证指数涨0.49%报3295.25点；深证成指涨0.75%报9974.53点；创业板指涨 0.97%报1966.97点；沪深300涨0.63%报3794.38点；科创50涨0.4%报1016.44点；北证50涨1.32%报 1348.69点 中信建投指出，展望五月，市场中期或将继续处于震荡格局，但短期风险偏好呈现边际改善迹象，或推 动市场风格阶段性转向成长。市场或呈现"成长-避险-消费"阶段性轮动特征。中期建议重点关注具备内 需驱动和成长弹性特征的"新质内需成长"方向，短期重点关注科技成长与服务消费。包括：电子、机械 设备、计算机、汽车、家电、农林牧渔、商贸零售、美容护理、社会服务等。 来源：读创财经综合 盘面上，超聚变服务器、日用陶瓷、金属成形机床、高压直流输电HVDC、数据运维、棉纺、体育彩 票、配套设备、软件外包服务（ITO）、电源设备等涨幅居前。建筑信息化、重组胶原蛋白、蜜雪冰城 概念、院线、MR（磁共振成像系统）、客车、酒店及餐饮、百货商场、汽车玻璃、碳交易所等跌幅居 前。贵金属 ...

凤凰网财经讯 5月6日，A股三大指数高开，沪指涨0.49％，深成指涨0.75％，创业板涨0.97％。黄金、 稀土永磁、消费电子、服务器、CPO、算力、机器人、6G、金融科技指数纷纷走强；PEEK材料、宠物 经济、零售概念股走弱。 外围市场： 中金公司研报指出，商务部数据显示，五一假期全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额同比增长6.3%，增速 相较2024年国庆（4.5%）、2025年春节（5.4%）呈环比提速；各省市及线上平台发布的消费数据显 示，长线游、出入境游均有亮眼表现，同时品类上以旧换新备受欢迎，演唱会、潮玩等体验型消费亦表 现较好。展望后续，继续看好消费提振政策逐步显效，全年居民消费需求持续释放。 ②中信建投：短期重点关注科技成长与服务消费 中信建投研报指出，展望五月，市场中期或将继续处于震荡格局，但短期风险偏好呈现边际改善迹象， 或推动市场风格阶段性转向成长。市场或呈现"成长-避险-消费"阶段性轮动特征。中期建议重点关注具 备内需驱动和成长弹性特征的"新质内需成长"方向，短期重点关注科技成长与服务消费。包括：电子、 机械设备、计算机、汽车、家电、农林牧渔、商贸零售、美容护理、社会服务等。 ③中泰证券：红利 ...

中国银河证券宏观经济研究 文/中国银河证券首席宏观分析师 张迪 、 中国银河证券宏观经济分析师助理 铁 伟奥 国 家 统 计 局 最 新 数 据 显 示 ， 2 0 2 5 年 4 月 份 ， 我 国 制 造 业 采 购 经 理 指 数 （PMI）为4 9 . 0%（前值50 . 5%），美国滥施关税影响初现。不过4月政 治局会议已经给出三大重要信号：一是保持国内储备政策的弹性；二是强 化底线思维，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期；三是加紧加快既定 政策的落实落地，加大加力重点领域的政策实施力度。 以下文章来源于中国银河宏观 ，作者中国银河宏观 中国银河宏观 . 国家统计局4月30日发布数据显示，2025年4月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%（前值50.5%）。建筑业商务活动指数为51.9%，比上月下降1.5个百 分点；服务业商务活动指数为50.1%，比上月下降0.2个百分点。关税的影响已全面传导至制造业企业。 供需同时收缩，出口影响较为严峻。 4月生产指数49.8%（前值52.6%）。新订单指数49.2%，新出口订单44.7%，分别下降2.6和4.3pct。4月需求下降较大， 尤其是新出口订单 ...

Group 1: Economic Context - Consumption is identified as the fundamental driving force for high-quality economic development, with the term "consumption" appearing 32 times in this year's government work report [1] - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need to increase income for low- and middle-income groups and to develop service consumption to enhance its contribution to economic growth [1] Group 2: Service Consumption as a Growth Engine - Service consumption refers to non-goods services in various cultural and lifestyle areas, including basic services like dining and accommodation, as well as improved services like tourism and entertainment [2] - The consumption structure in China is rapidly shifting from traditional goods consumption to service and intelligent consumption, indicating significant growth potential [2] - In 2024, China's service retail sales are projected to grow by 6.2%, outpacing the growth rate of goods retail sales by 3.0 percentage points [2] - Per capita spending on service consumption is expected to increase by 7.4%, accounting for 46.1% of total per capita consumption expenditure, up by 0.9 percentage points from the previous year [2] Group 3: Policy Initiatives for Service Consumption - The Central Committee and State Council have launched a "Service Consumption Quality Improvement Action" as part of a broader initiative to boost consumption [3] - Various regions, such as Liaoning Province, have introduced policies aimed at promoting high-quality service consumption through 21 specific measures [3] Group 4: Role of Consumer Finance Companies - Consumer finance companies are playing an increasingly vital role in stimulating service consumption, supported by government policies encouraging financial institutions to enhance credit offerings for service consumption [4] - The demand for consumer finance is expanding, with companies like Mashang Consumer Finance issuing nearly 24.6 billion yuan in personal loans across over 200 consumption scenarios in the first quarter [5] - In 2024, Mengshang Consumer Finance issued over 3.26 million loans in key areas such as home appliances, education, and travel [5] Group 5: Future Directions for Consumer Finance - Experts suggest that consumer finance companies should enhance collaboration and expand consumption scenarios to better support service consumption [7] - Initiatives like joint marketing campaigns by companies such as Ant Consumer Finance are being implemented to cater to diverse consumer needs [7] - There is a call for increased consumer education to improve understanding of financial products and promote responsible borrowing and consumption [7][8]

摘要 关税风险减弱，资产价格迎来"喘息"之机 20250429 • 5 月推荐配置全球大类资产，包括美股、美债和国际大宗商品（不包括黄 金），因地缘政治风险缓解，黄金阶段性上涨可能结束。美元在关税谈判 温和进展下相对看涨。 • 国内市场因中美硬碰硬态势及基本面数据走弱，建议标配国内资产。政治 局会议结果低于预期，市场期待增量政策，但具体举措不明显，短期内国 内风险资产价格缺乏利好因素。 • 美联储 5 月降息概率较低，预计 6 月降息概率较高，需美国失业率和通胀 数据支撑。鲍威尔任期内，美联储货币政策路径未受特朗普实质影响。 • 对权益类资产持谨慎乐观态度，推荐哑铃型策略：防守端选择银行和保险； 进攻端选择电子、计算机、传媒和通信板块。银行仍具战略配置价值。 • 政策支持服务消费效果有限，中国居民消费习惯与美国不同，贷款刺激消 费效果不如发放消费券。促进服务消费可能成为政策发力重点。 • 美股自 4 月 10 日开始反弹，若 220 项贸易协定逐步推出且关税下降，可 能迎来新一轮机会，但具体措施出台前保持谨慎乐观。 • 国内大宗商品市场整体偏空，需求较弱，尤其是地产链条上的螺纹钢和玻 璃。农产品需求相对稳定。 ...

截至2025年4月30日 09:42，中证主要消费指数(000932)上涨0.72%，成分股伊利股份(600887)上涨3.99%，金龙鱼(300999)上涨3.77%，今世缘(603369)上涨 3.74%，珀莱雅(603605)上涨1.71%，重庆啤酒(600132)上涨1.53%。主要消费ETF(159672)上涨0.91%，最新价报0.78元。拉长时间看，截至2025年4月29日， 主要消费ETF近3月累计上涨4.89%。 4月25日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议定调，支持科技创新、扩大消费、稳定外贸等；要提高中低收入群体收入， 大力发展服务消费，增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用；尽快清理消费领域限制性措施，设立服务消费与养老再贷款；加大资金支持力度，扩围提质实施"两 新"政策，加力实施"两重"建设。扩消费方向明确，服务消费有望成为内需增长的重要推动力。 回撤方面，截至2025年4月29日，主要消费ETF今年以来最大回撤5.57%，相对基准回撤0.34%。 费率方面，主要消费ETF管理费率为0.50%，托管费率为0.10%，费率在可比基金中最低。 此外，"五一假期"临近，国 ...