3月6日（星期四）下午，十四届全国人大三次会议举行记者会，邀请国家发展改革委主任郑栅 洁、财政部部长蓝佛安、商务部部长王文涛、中国人民银行行长潘功胜、中国证券监督管理委员 会主席吴清就发展改革、财政预算、商务、金融证券等相关问题回答中外记者提问。 国家发展改革委 郑栅洁：民营经济的活力和动力不断增强 郑栅洁表示，传统产业转型升级显著加快，民营经济的活力和动力不断增强。民营经济出口去年占 64.7%，提升1.4个百分点；制造业民间投资、基础设施民间投资分别增长10.8%、5.8%。 郑栅洁：提振消费专项行动方案将很快发布实施 郑栅洁表示，提振消费专项行动方案将很快发布实施。 郑栅洁：去年向民间资本推出8000多个重大项目 郑栅洁表示，去年向民间资本推出8000多个重大项目，今年将支持民营企业在新兴产业、未来产业的投资 布局，也将在铁路、水利、核电等领域推出有吸引力的重大项目。 郑栅洁：近期将设立国家创业投资引导基金 带动地方资金、社会资本的规模将接近1万亿元 郑栅洁表示，近期将设立国家创业投资引导基金，目的就是做优、做强、做大创新型企业。郑栅洁表示， 培育壮大新质生产力是一项长期任务、系统工程。组建国家创业投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Province has experienced significant population growth, leading the nation in population increase for four consecutive years, attributed to its robust private economy and wealth distribution model [1][11][28]. Population Growth - In 2024, Zhejiang's permanent population reached 66.7 million, an increase of 430,000 from 2023, marking the highest growth among provinces that have reported data [1][5]. - From 2021 to 2024, Zhejiang's population increased by 2.02 million, with annual increases of 720,000 in 2021, 370,000 in 2022, and 500,000 in 2023 [2][3]. Comparison with Other Provinces - Among the 31 provinces, only six have reported population data, with Zhejiang being the only one showing positive growth [1][4]. - In contrast, Guangdong's population growth remains uncertain, with Shenzhen reporting an increase of 199,400, nearly double that of Hangzhou [6][7]. Economic Strength - Zhejiang's private economy is a key driver of its population growth, contributing over 50% of tax revenue, 60% of GDP, and 90% of new employment [11][12]. - The private sector's value added is projected to account for 67.4% of the province's GDP in 2024, with a total of 10.95 million registered businesses [12][15]. Industrial Development - Zhejiang's industrial structure is characterized by a mix of traditional and emerging industries, with a focus on digital economy, advanced manufacturing, and trade services [21][24]. - The province's digital economy is projected to contribute significantly to GDP, with core industry value added expected to reach 7.6 billion yuan in 2024 [24][33]. Wealth Distribution - Zhejiang ranks third in per capita disposable income in China, with an expected income of 67,013 yuan in 2024, significantly higher than many other provinces [28][29]. - The province's cities, including Hangzhou and Ningbo, dominate the list of cities with the highest per capita disposable income [29]. Talent Acquisition Strategies - Hangzhou has implemented aggressive talent acquisition strategies, offering substantial living subsidies to attract high-educated individuals [30][32]. - The city aims to enhance its manufacturing sector, focusing on high-tech industries and innovation-driven development [34][35].

赵伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 贾东旭 摘要 事件： 2025年3月5日，国务院总理李强代表国务院，向十四届全国人大三次会议作政府工作报告。 一、主要经济目标设定更务实，相关指标设计讨论充分 主要经济目标设定更加"务实"，对相关指标设计讨论充分。 2025年经济增长预期目标为5%左右，"既是 稳就业、防风险、惠民生的需要，也有经济增长潜力和有利条件支撑"；报告也提出"实现这些目标很不 容易，必须付出艰苦努力"。基于5%左右的经济增长目标，政策部署更加灵活，报告指出将"根据形势变 化动态调整政策，提高宏观调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效性"，执行层面注重"加强上下联动、横向协 作"。 对可能遇到的困难与挑战，报告表述清醒客观，特别提及关税、内需和执行层面问题。 报告指出"多边贸 易体制受阻，关税壁垒增多"等问题。内部发展方面，报告梳理三大矛盾：需求端"有效需求不足"的结构 性问题，供给端 "部分企业生产经营困难，账款拖欠问题仍较突出"，民生领域"群众就业增收面临压 力"等。同时，报告特别提及"一些地方基层财政困难"，也直指"一些工作协调配合不够，有的政策落地偏 慢 ...

Economic Growth - The government has set a GDP growth target of around 5%, indicating a need for increased policy efforts to achieve this goal[7] - The implied nominal GDP growth rate has been adjusted down to 4.9%, with a fiscal deficit of 5.66 trillion and a deficit rate of 4%[8] - In 2024, final consumption and capital formation contributed only 3.5 percentage points to GDP growth, highlighting weak domestic demand[7] Price Stability - The CPI target has been lowered from 3% to 2%, reflecting a shift in focus from preventing inflation to promoting price recovery[9] - This adjustment indicates a stronger emphasis on price stability within the macroeconomic policy framework[18] Fiscal Policy - The total incremental fiscal funds for this year are projected to reach 2.9 trillion, second only to the 3.6 trillion in 2020[25] - The combined fiscal measures (deficit, special bonds, and long-term bonds) amount to 11.86 trillion, an increase of 2.9 trillion compared to last year[25] Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy is expected to be the main theme for 2025, with potential for timely adjustments in interest rates and reserve requirements[31] - Structural monetary policies will focus on supporting real estate, stock markets, and private enterprises[32] Consumption Promotion - Three key areas for consumption policy include subsidies for replacing old products, income support through social security, and improving the consumption environment[33] - The central government has allocated approximately 3,800 billion for consumption incentives, doubling last year's funding[26] Real Estate Policy - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market through measures such as lifting purchase restrictions and adjusting mortgage rates[34] - Attention will be given to the progress of land and housing stock acquisition through special bonds[36] Industrial Policy - Discussions on potential new rounds of capacity reduction are ongoing, but any measures are expected to be moderate and market-driven[37] - The focus will be on addressing structural issues in industries facing overcapacity, particularly in emerging sectors[38] Technology and Private Enterprises - The government emphasizes the need for institutional support for private enterprises in national technology innovation projects[45] - There is a stronger commitment to resolving issues related to overdue payments to private enterprises, with funding sources identified for this purpose[45] Energy Consumption - The energy consumption target has been raised to a reduction of 3% per unit of GDP, indicating stricter energy policies moving forward[46] - The actual reduction achieved last year was 3.8%, exceeding the previous target of 2.5%[46] Capital Market - The report highlights the need for comprehensive reforms in the capital market to enhance the balance between investment and financing functions[51] - There is a focus on increasing the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market to stabilize investor confidence[51]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce of China announced the initiation of its first anti-circumvention investigation against U.S. optical fiber products, which are suspected of circumventing China's anti-dumping measures [1] - The investigation was launched at the request of the domestic industry and will determine whether to impose anti-circumvention measures against the U.S. based on the investigation results [1] - Anti-circumvention investigations are trade remedy investigations aimed at ensuring the effectiveness of existing anti-dumping or countervailing measures, widely used by many WTO members [1]

Group 1: National People's Congress (NPC) Meeting - The 14th NPC's third session will last for 7 days, starting on March 5 and concluding on March 11, with a total of 7 agenda items including the review of the government work report [2] - The NPC aims to enhance the People's Congress system to support the modernization of China, focusing on legislative and supervisory roles, and maintaining close ties with the public [3] Group 2: Legislative Achievements - Since the last NPC session, 39 legal proposals were reviewed, with 24 passed, including 6 new laws and 14 amendments, reflecting progress in the legislative work [4] - Legislative outcomes are aimed at accelerating new productive forces, ensuring citizens' aspirations for a better life, and supporting high-level openness [4] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy showed a significant recovery with a GDP surpassing 130 trillion yuan, achieving a 5% growth, despite facing external challenges and domestic demand issues [10] - The government remains confident in the long-term positive trend of the economy, emphasizing its resilience and potential [10] Group 4: Private Economy Development - The draft Private Economy Promotion Law is under review, aiming to ensure equal legal protection for all forms of ownership and promote healthy development of the private sector [6] Group 5: International Relations - The essence of China-U.S. economic relations is mutual benefit, with trade volume increasing over 200 times since diplomatic relations were established [7] - China emphasizes the importance of stable and healthy China-Europe relations, highlighting mutual benefits and cooperation in various fields [11] Group 6: Defense Budget - China's defense budget has maintained a single-digit growth for nine consecutive years, with the defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP remaining below 1.5%, lower than the global average [14] Group 7: Regional Development - The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has seen significant economic growth, with a total economic output exceeding 14 trillion yuan, and improved connectivity among the three regions [16] Group 8: Global South Cooperation - China has been a participant and leader in South-South cooperation, contributing significantly to global economic growth, and aims to strengthen legislative exchanges with other developing countries [17]

Group 1: DeepSeek and AI Development - DeepSeek's significant advancements in AI represent the rise of Chinese companies in the technology sector, showcasing innovation and inclusivity [2][3] - The open-source approach of DeepSeek promotes global application of AI technology, contributing "Chinese wisdom" to the world [3] - The evolution of mobile communication technologies illustrates the importance of open collaboration in achieving market recognition and success [3] Group 2: Private Economy Promotion Law - The Private Economy Promotion Law is crucial for ensuring equal legal protection for various ownership types and enhancing the business environment for private enterprises [6][7] - The law aims to incorporate the Party's policies on private economic development into legal norms, promoting healthy and high-quality growth [7] Group 3: Sino-US Economic Relations - The essence of Sino-US economic relations is mutual benefit, with trade volume increasing over 200 times since diplomatic relations were established [8][10] - China's stance is to resolve trade disputes within the framework of the World Trade Organization, opposing unilateral tariff increases by the US [10][11] Group 4: China's Economic Outlook - Despite facing unprecedented external challenges, China's economy showed resilience with a GDP growth of 5% and a total GDP surpassing 130 trillion yuan [12][13] - The government emphasizes the importance of deepening reforms and expanding high-level opening-up to stimulate economic vitality [13][14] Group 5: Sino-European Relations - Sino-European relations are characterized by mutual benefits and complementary advantages, with significant contributions to global supply chain stability [15][16] - The collaboration between Chinese and Spanish companies exemplifies successful partnerships that create local employment and revitalize brands [16] Group 6: Local Government Debt Management - The issuance of 20 trillion yuan in replacement bonds has commenced to manage local government debt effectively, ensuring fiscal stability [17][18] - The National People's Congress plays a vital role in supervising government debt management and preventing new hidden debt risks [18]

Group 1: Economic Goals and Policies - The GDP target for 2025 is expected to remain around 5.0%, consistent with the previous two years, to align with the goal of doubling the economic total by 2035 and to absorb the 1,222,000 new graduates entering the job market [2] - CPI target is anticipated to be adjusted to around 2.0%, reflecting a cautious approach due to low inflation pressures, with 27 provinces setting their CPI targets similarly [2] - The central government is expected to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, with potential adjustments to the deficit rate and an increase in the scale of long-term bonds and local government special bonds [3][4] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Domestic Demand - The monetary policy is shifting to a moderately loose stance, the first change since 2011, with market expectations for further adjustments [5][6] - The government aims to boost domestic demand by enhancing consumption and investment, with specific policies being developed to stimulate consumer spending and support major projects [7] Group 3: Technological Innovation and Private Economy - The focus on technological innovation is emphasized as a key task for developing new productive forces and modern industrial systems, particularly in light of recent advancements in AI [9] - The central government is reiterating its commitment to support the private economy, with ongoing legislative efforts to create a favorable environment for private enterprises [10] Group 4: External Challenges and Real Estate Market - The government is addressing external uncertainties, particularly regarding trade policies and foreign investment, with plans to stabilize foreign trade and investment [11][12] - The real estate market is a core concern, with measures in place to stabilize prices and improve market conditions, including potential government acquisitions of unsold properties [13][14] Group 5: Capital Market and Demographic Policies - Efforts to stabilize the capital market are ongoing, with initiatives to attract long-term funds and enhance market stability [15] - Demographic policies are under review, with potential new measures to address aging and declining birth rates, including possible incentives for families [17]

文/《清华金融评论》 丁开艳 2月2 4日，民营经济促进法草案提交全国人大常委会二审。草案二审稿吸 收了有的常委会组成人员和地方、企业、社会公众提出的进一步突出法治 保障作用的建议，充实完善了相关内容。草案二审稿增加了多项新规定， 对于全社会稳定预期、振奋信心、凝聚力量，激发民营经济发展动能具有 重要意义。 其二，针对同一检查对象的多个检查事项,应当尽可能合并或者纳入跨部门联合检查范围。 其三，任何单位不得违反法律、法规向民营经济组织收取费用,不得实施没有法律、法规依据的罚 款,不得向民营经济组织摊派财物。 为充分发挥行业协会商会在促进民营经济发展中的作用,草案二审稿增加规定： 有关行业协会商会依照法律、法规和章程,发挥协调和自律作用,及时反映行业诉求,为民营经济组 织及其经营者提供信息咨询、宣传培训、市场拓展、权益保护、纠纷处理等方面的服务。 促进民营经济发展壮大必须进一步强化法治保障 司法部部长贺荣表示，党的二十届三中全会明确提出，制定民营经济促进法。作为我国第一部专 门关于民营经济发展的基础性法律，将改革开放以来特别是党的十八大以来党中央、国务院关于 民营经济的方针政策和实践中的有效做法确定为法律制度， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of supporting private enterprises in China, particularly through bond issuance in the Shanghai Stock Exchange, to enhance their financing capabilities and promote sustainable development [1][3][12]. Group 1: Bond Issuance and Financing Support - Dongyangguang successfully issued 500 million yuan in corporate bonds with a coupon rate of 4.7% to repay debts and reduce financing costs [1]. - In 2024, the Shanghai Stock Exchange supported over 100 private enterprises in raising more than 220 billion yuan through bonds and asset-backed securities [1][3]. - The introduction of innovative products and mechanisms by the Shanghai Stock Exchange aims to create a favorable environment for private enterprise bond financing [3][12]. Group 2: Innovative Financial Products - The issuance of the first private enterprise technology innovation bond in the medical sector by United Imaging Healthcare raised 1 billion yuan with a 3.19% interest rate [4]. - The establishment of credit protection tools for low-carbon transition bonds by Jiangsu Yonggang Group demonstrates innovative financing solutions [4][5]. - The development of asset-backed securities (ABS) has provided private enterprises with a viable channel to leverage quality assets for financing [7]. Group 3: Enhancing Communication and Market Access - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has organized roadshows and training sessions to facilitate communication between private enterprises and investors, addressing financing challenges [10][11]. - The introduction of a market-making mechanism for private enterprise bonds aims to improve liquidity and reduce financing costs [11]. - The successful roadshow by Hongshi Group attracted significant investor interest, showcasing the effectiveness of these initiatives [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The Shanghai Stock Exchange plans to continue supporting private enterprises by enhancing the bond financing ecosystem and promoting high-quality development in the bond market [12].