Group 1 - International gold prices continue to rise, closing above $3,800 per ounce, marking a new historical high [1] - Since September, international gold prices have repeatedly set new highs, with London gold spot prices surpassing key levels of $3,500, $3,600, and $3,700 per ounce [1] - As of September 1, the opening price was $3,447.50 per ounce, indicating an increase of nearly 8% within the month [1] Group 2 - Since 2025, international gold prices have increased by approximately 43%, while domestic gold prices have risen about 38% [2] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's hedging research team believes that the ongoing weakness in the U.S. labor market and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts provide strong upward momentum for gold prices [2] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the situation in Gaza, are driving investors towards gold as a traditional "safe-haven asset" [2] - Analysts from OANDA and ANZ Bank suggest that economic slowdown, rising inflation, geopolitical changes, and a weakening dollar will sustain strong demand for gold investments [2] - Deutsche Bank analysts indicate that the continuous rise in gold prices reflects underlying market fears, with investors concerned about significant downside risks in the stock market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The euro is experiencing increased attractiveness as a safe-haven asset, with its value significantly rising this year, potentially leading to further gains and a breakthrough of key levels, which may stimulate market demand for it [1] Group 1: Euro to USD Exchange Rate - As of September 24, the euro to USD exchange rate is trading around 1.1798, down 0.11% from the previous close of 1.1811 [1] - The euro has risen from 1.0125 to 1.1918 this year, reflecting market concerns over trade tensions [1] - If the euro continues to trade below the 1.1800 level, it may trigger technical selling, pushing prices down to the mid-term support level of 1.1730-1.1725 [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Predictions - The rise in gold prices indicates that investors are seeking hedges against various risks this year, with the euro being perceived as a safer option than gold due to its status as the second-largest reserve currency [1] - A sustained buying breakthrough in the 1.1870-1.1880 range could confirm a short-term bullish outlook for the euro, paving the way for the exchange rate to reach the psychological level of 1.2000 [2] - The mid-term resistance level to watch is around 1.1950, which could impact the euro's trajectory towards 1.2000 [2]

美股三大指数集体收跌，科技股领跌，纳指跌0.95%，亚马逊跌超3%，英伟达跌超2%。美联储鲍威尔 警告美股估值"相当高"引发市场担忧，投资者获利了结。受益于地缘局势紧张和供应担忧，能源板块逆 势上涨。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌2.22%，热门中概股普遍下挫。百度跌超8%，知乎跌超5%，哔哩哔哩、好 未来、新东方跌超3%，京东跌近3%。台积电ADR逆势涨3.70%。 市场聚焦美联储政策路径，CME数据显示10月降息概率高达92%。但鲍威尔警示估值偏高或引发短期波 动，避险资产黄金再创新高逼近3800美元。 ...

美股三大指数集体收跌，科技股领跌，纳指跌0.95%，亚马逊跌超3%，英伟达跌超2%。美联储鲍威尔 警告美股估值"相当高"引发市场担忧，投资者获利了结。受益于地缘局势紧张和供应担忧，能源板块逆 势上涨。 市场聚焦美联储政策路径，CME数据显示10月降息概率高达92%。但鲍威尔警示估值偏高或引发短期波 动，避险资产黄金再创新高逼近3800美元。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌2.22%，热门中概股普遍下挫。百度跌超8%，知乎跌超5%，哔哩哔哩、好 未来、新东方跌超3%，京东跌近3%。台积电ADR逆势涨3.70%。 ...

2025年9月23日，纽约商品交易所（NYMEX）黄金期货市场见证了历史性的一刻。12月交割的黄金期货价格飙升69.30美元，涨幅高达1.9%，最终收 盘价定格在每盎司3775.10美元，不仅创下了当日的最高纪录，更是刷新了黄金期货的历史收盘价纪录。这已是2025年内黄金价格第36次冲破历史新 高，显示出其强劲的上涨势头。 与1980年黄金价格的抛物线式飙升及其随后的暴跌形成鲜明对比的是，本轮黄金上涨行情呈现出更为温和和可持续的特点，波动性显著降低。期权市 场的关键指标并未显示出非理性的狂热行为。风险管理专家Brett Friedman指出，如果市场泡沫正在形成，通常会伴随隐含波动率因不确定性加剧和价 格狂热波动而急剧上升。然而，目前价外期权相对于平价期权的价差并未出现显著扩大，OptionMetrics的数据也显示该指标处于正常水平，这表明投 资者情绪尚未达到狂热的程度。Teucrium的董事总经理兼高级投资组合专家Jake Hanley通过分析黄金价格图表，认为其展现了"经典突破行为"，包括 长期的盘整、清晰的阻力位突破、看涨的趋势排列以及伴随强劲阳线和持续性的决定性上涨。 尽管整体市场情绪乐观，但部分迹 ...

金价持续暴涨。 国内方面，截至下午收盘，上海黄金交易所黄金T+D收涨1.73%，报849.58元/克。与此同时，上海期货 交易所黄金期货主力2512合约收涨1.99%，报855.44元/克。其中，黄金T+D盘中最高触及850.72元/克， 黄金期货主力2512合约最高触及856.3元/克，均创下新高。 在期现金价的强势带动下，国内金饰价格也随之迎来涨价潮。9月23日，周生生足金首饰价格已达到 1100元/克，比前一日上涨10元/克；周大福和老凤祥足金首饰升至1098元/克。 "今日贵金属价格再度强势走高，伦敦现货黄金突破美联储决议日的记录高位，涨至3750美元/盎司上 方，沪金期货主力合约日内一度涨超2%。"新湖期货研究所副所长、高级黄金投资分析师李明玉表示。 在李明玉看来，沪金期货的部分涨幅来自于上周六凌晨的补涨。此前，旨在避免美国政府停摆的临时支 出法案未能在美国参议院通过，导致美国政府再次面临停摆危机，特朗普甚至威胁称"美国政府可能在 10月1日关门"。同时，本周以来，联合国大会上越来越多国家承认巴勒斯坦国，以色列作出了强硬回 应，这可能引发中东紧张局势急剧升温。受此影响，市场避险情绪有所回升，进而支撑 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that approximately 63.1% of respondents believe that the A-share market will rise in September 2025, showing an increase of 1.6 percentage points from April 2025 and a significant rise of 15.6 percentage points from July 2024 [1] - The expected return rate for A-shares is around 1.6%, with retail investors expecting 1.1% and financial professionals expecting 2.6%, reflecting an increase of 1 percentage point from April 2025 and a rise of 5.6 percentage points from July 2024 [1] Group 2 - The report shows a growing trend in the willingness to invest in safe-haven assets like gold and bonds since 2018, although there was a slight decrease in this willingness in the current period, possibly due to investors' desire to increase stock market investments [2] - The net increase in the willingness to invest in gold is approximately 12.6%, with retail and financial sectors at about 11.5% and 14.2% respectively, marking a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from the previous period [2] - The net increase in the willingness to invest in bonds is around 13.9%, with retail and financial sectors at approximately 13.3% and 14.8% respectively, showing a decline of 3 percentage points from the previous period [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, driven by various factors including monetary policy shifts and geopolitical tensions, has led to historical highs in both London gold and COMEX gold futures [1][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - On September 23, London gold reached a peak of $3,791.08 per ounce, marking a historical high with a monthly increase of approximately 8.7% [1]. - COMEX gold futures also hit a record high of $3,824.6 per ounce, with a monthly rise of about 7.6% [1]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices have increased, with brands like Chow Tai Fook reporting prices close to 1,100 yuan per gram [3]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, including a 25 basis point rate cut on September 18, has significantly influenced market expectations for global monetary easing, thereby pushing gold prices higher [3]. - Geopolitical tensions and military conflicts have led to increased safe-haven demand for gold, contributing to its price rise [3][4]. - Central banks globally are showing strong intentions to increase gold holdings, with a net purchase of 166 tons reported despite high gold prices [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices are likely to continue their upward trend due to ongoing monetary easing, fiscal expansion in the U.S., and persistent inflation risks [5]. - The market is expected to see short-term buying driven by technical corrections and geopolitical uncertainties, with gold potentially challenging its yearly high [5]. - Investment strategies for ordinary investors should focus on risk management, with recommendations to consider gold ETFs and companies involved in gold mining and sales [6].

Core Viewpoint - Gold is rapidly solidifying its status as the "ultimate safe haven" for 2025, reaching a new historical high driven by expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, strong global central bank demand, discussions about the Fed's independence, and geopolitical concerns [1][6]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices surged to over $3,770 per ounce, marking a historical peak, influenced by expectations of further rate cuts and a weakening dollar [6]. - Major Wall Street firms are increasingly bullish on gold, with predictions for prices reaching $4,000 by 2026, driven by rising demand for safe-haven assets [6][7]. - Goldman Sachs projects a baseline gold price of $3,700 by the end of 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026, with potential for prices to reach $5,000 if investor confidence in traditional safe assets declines [7]. Group 2: Bitcoin as a Safe Haven - Bitcoin is being compared to gold as a "digital gold," with expectations that by 2030, both assets will coexist on central bank balance sheets [2][4]. - Bitcoin's market capitalization reached $2.3 trillion this year, with predictions for its price to rebound to $120,000 by year-end [2]. - Deutsche Bank analysts highlight Bitcoin's fixed supply and independence from government control as factors enhancing its appeal as a diversification tool [3][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Predictions - The ongoing discussions about the Federal Reserve's independence and geopolitical tensions are expected to sustain high demand for both gold and Bitcoin [2][6]. - Analysts predict that Bitcoin's volatility will decrease over time, while both assets will not replace the dollar as the primary reserve currency in the short term [4]. - Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 and $500,000 by 2029, driven by a bullish market outlook [5][4].

周二，现货黄金在亚盘站上3750美元/盎司后，接连上破3760、3770、3780关口，截至17:15报3784美元/盎司，日内上涨近1%。交易员未理会美联储官员在 上周降息后对货币政策前景的谨慎评论。 鲍威尔将于当地时间周二（北京时间周三凌晨00:35）就经济前景发表备受关注的演讲。此前，伴随上周利率决议公布的季度利率预测（即点阵图）显示出 官员观点存在显著分歧。与此同时，多位美联储官员周一重申需要对未来的利率决策采取谨慎态度，其中包括圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆，他表示在物价压 力高企的背景下，进一步降息的空间有限。 与此同时，白银价格连续三日上涨，维持在每盎司44美元附近。这种相对便宜的贵金属可能受到了看涨期权交易的支持，上周五iShares白银信托期权的日交 易量飙升至120万份，为2024年4月以来的最高水平，看涨期权数量大幅增加。 在支持性因素广泛汇聚的背景下，黄金和白银已成为年内表现最佳的主要大宗商品之一。这些因素包括：美联储放松货币政策、各国央行增加储备持有量以 及持续的地缘政治紧张局势维持了对避险资产的需求。高盛集团等大型银行已表示预期金价将进一步上涨。 展望后市，交易员将仔细分析本周即将公布的 ...