Market Overview - US stock markets experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 542.40 points (1.23%) to 43,588.58, the Nasdaq dropping by 2.24% to 20,650.13, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 1.60% to 6,238.01 [2] - For the week, the Dow Jones fell by 2.9%, the S&P 500 decreased by 2.4%, and the Nasdaq dropped by 2.2% [3] Employment Data - The US non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000 in the last month, falling short of the expected increase of 104,000, while the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% [3] - Employment growth has been primarily concentrated in previously understaffed sectors such as healthcare and social assistance, with a steady decline in the breadth of job creation in recent months [3] Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan's survey indicated that US consumer confidence rose for the second consecutive month in July, with inflation expectations for the next year dropping to the lowest level since February [3] - Despite the positive trend in consumer sentiment, overall market sentiment remains negative, with consumers expressing concerns about the economic trajectory [3] Federal Reserve Actions - Federal Reserve officials expressed dissent regarding the decision to maintain interest rates, advocating for a loosening of monetary policy to prevent potential deterioration in the labor market [3] Treasury Yields - US Treasury yields fell sharply, with the two-year yield dropping by 26.5 basis points to 3.7% and the ten-year yield decreasing by 15.1 basis points to 4.22% [4] - The probability of a rate cut in September has surged to over 80% according to the FedWatch tool [4] Corporate Performance - Amazon's stock plummeted by 8.3% following a third-quarter revenue guidance that fell below market expectations [6] - Major tech stocks also performed poorly, with Apple down 2.5%, Nvidia down 2.3%, Tesla and Microsoft down 1.8%, and Meta down 0.7% [7] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.8%, with Alibaba down 2.9%, NetEase down 2.2%, Baidu down 2.0%, and JD down 1.8% [8] Oil and Gold Prices - Economic uncertainty and OPEC+ production increase expectations pressured oil prices, with WTI crude oil dropping by 2.79% to $67.33 per barrel and Brent crude oil down by 2.83% to $69.67 per barrel [8] - Safe-haven sentiment drove gold prices higher, with October contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange surpassing $3,400, marking a 2.02% increase [9]

Economic Overview - The U.S. employment data for July fell short of market expectations, leading to increased concerns about the economic outlook and a surge in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1][4] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, with significant downward revisions to previously reported job growth for May and June, indicating a cooling labor market [4][5] Stock Market Reaction - All three major U.S. stock indices closed down on August 1, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 1.23%, the S&P 500 down by 1.6%, and the Nasdaq down by 2.24% [2][4] - Amazon's stock plummeted over 8% due to concerns regarding its cloud computing business's slower-than-expected profit growth [2][4] Market Sentiment - The CBOE Volatility Index, a measure of market fear, rose to 20.41 points, reflecting heightened risk aversion among investors [2][4] - Precious metal prices surged as investors sought safe-haven assets, with gold prices increasing by 2.22% and silver prices rising by 0.84% [3] Federal Reserve Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September jumped from 37.7% to 75.5% following the disappointing employment data [4][5] Political Developments - President Trump announced the dismissal of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erica McEntyre, citing dissatisfaction with the employment data, which he accused of being manipulated for political purposes [5][6] - Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler announced her resignation effective August 8, allowing President Trump to make new appointments to the Federal Reserve Board ahead of schedule [7]

20250801申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2510 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2510 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 770.92 | 773.12 | 8935.00 | 8957.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 770.28 | 772.24 | 9008.00 | 9033.00 | | | 货 | 涨跌 | 0.64 | 0.88 | -73.00 | -76.00 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | 0.08% | 0.11% | -0.81% | -0.84% | | | 场 | | | | | | | | | 持仓量 | 217080 | 119395 | 371110 | 210165 | | | | 成交量 | 260701 | 36959 | 1100640 | 141471 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of crude oil is expected to be oscillating and strengthening, and investors can focus on the hedging value of out - of - the - money call options [2]. - Precious metals may continue to experience oscillating adjustments, and attention should be paid to the US non - farm payrolls guidance [3]. - Copper short positions should be held as the import tariff on refined copper is excluded, reversing the physical import arbitrage expectation [4]. - Aluminum may continue to be under pressure and oscillate in the short term due to inventory accumulation and weak consumption [5]. - For various commodities, different trading strategies are recommended according to their specific supply - demand and market conditions, such as short - selling aluminum oxide, waiting for inventory verification for aluminum, etc. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices declined. Although trade wars suppress market sentiment, there are still supporting factors from sanctions on oil. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cracking spreads of FU and LU are further declining due to weak fundamentals and the support of the crude oil market [22]. - **Asphalt**: In August, domestic production is expected to decline compared to July. Demand recovery is delayed, and inventory reduction is weak. The price trend follows crude oil [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market is under pressure due to supply loosening. The domestic market is also under pressure, and the price is generally low [23]. - **Urea**: The futures price has fallen sharply. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the short - term market is expected to be weakly oscillating [24]. - **Methanol**: A coastal olefin plant is under maintenance, and the port is accumulating inventory seasonally. The domestic supply is sufficient, and attention should be paid to macro - policies [25]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: The price has fallen below the MA60 moving average. Trump's tariff policy affects the import arbitrage expectation, and short positions should be held [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price is declining. The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating, and the short - term trend is under pressure [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has followed the decline of Shanghai aluminum. The short - term price is under pressure, but it has certain resilience in the medium term [6]. - **Alumina**: The industry profit has recovered, but the market is in an oversupply state. Short - selling is recommended near the recent high of 3500 yuan [7]. - **Zinc**: The macro - optimistic sentiment has faded. The supply - demand pattern is supply - increasing and demand - weakening. Short - selling on rebounds is the main strategy [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel is oscillating. The upstream price support has weakened, and short - selling is recommended [10]. - **Tin**: The price has fallen below the MA60 moving average. High - position short positions should be held [11]. Chemical Commodities - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The demand for propylene has increased slightly, but the market is lackluster. Polyolefin futures are in an interval - consolidation pattern [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is weakening, and the short - term price is expected to be oscillating and weakening. Caustic soda is running weakly, and the long - term price is under pressure [29]. - **PX & PTA**: The prices of PX and PTA have fallen. The mid - term processing margin has a repair drive, but it needs the recovery of downstream demand [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is declining. The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas supply is stabilizing [31]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip**: The prices have followed the decline of raw materials. Short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation in the medium term, while bottle chips have long - term over - capacity pressure [32]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is under pressure due to good weather and high excellent - rate. The domestic soybean meal inventory is accumulating. The market is waiting for the result of trade negotiations [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The prices of both are adjusting. A long - position allocation strategy at low prices is recommended, and attention should be paid to weather and policies [37]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed price is expected to be in a consolidation state. The short - term strategy is to wait and see [38]. - **Corn**: The futures price is oscillating and weakening. The US corn is growing well, and the domestic market focuses on the supply in the circulation link [40]. - **Cotton**: The price is declining. The downstream demand is weak, and the new - season production in Xinjiang is expected to increase. The operation strategy is to wait and see or conduct intraday trading [43]. - **Sugar**: The US sugar trend is downward, and the Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. The short - term price is expected to be oscillating [44]. - **Apple**: The price is oscillating. The market focuses on the new - season production estimate, and the operation strategy is to wait and see [45]. - **Wood**: The supply - demand situation has improved, and the futures price is expected to rise. A long - position strategy is recommended [46]. - **Paper Pulp**: The price is falling. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The price may return to low - level oscillation [47]. Others - **Stock Index**: The stock market declined, and the mid - term market is expected to be relatively positive. Allocation to technology - growth sectors and low - level consumer sectors can be considered [48]. - **Treasury Bond**: The futures price of treasury bonds has strengthened. The yield curve is expected to steepen in the short term [49].

Group 1 - The World Gold Council's report indicates that global gold demand reached 1249 tons in Q2 2025, a 3% year-on-year increase, driven primarily by gold ETF investments which saw inflows of 170 tons [1] - Gold jewelry consumption fell by 14% year-on-year to 341 tons, marking the lowest quarterly demand since Q3 2020, although the total value of gold jewelry consumption increased by 21% to $36 billion [1] - In China, gold jewelry demand weakened significantly, dropping 20% year-on-year to 69 tons in Q2 2025, with a substantial 45% quarter-on-quarter decline, leading to a total of 194 tons for the first half of the year, a 28% decrease [1] Group 2 - The decline in gold jewelry consumption is attributed to a combination of economic cycles and changes in consumer behavior, with high gold prices reducing purchasing willingness, particularly among younger consumers [2] - Gold ETFs are favored for their liquidity, low transaction costs, and high transparency, serving as a preferred tool for both institutional and individual investors to hedge risks and diversify portfolios [2] - The increase in ETF holdings reduces the available deliverable gold in the market, indirectly supporting higher gold prices, while investors are advised to adopt a layered allocation strategy in a high gold price environment [2]

Oil Market - International oil prices continued to rise, with Brent crude for September increasing by 0.98% [1] - The U.S. EIA reported an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 7.698 million barrels, but the market remains focused on the renewed risks of sanctions on oil [1] - The geopolitical risks related to Iran and Russia are expected to support oil prices in the short term, and investors are advised to consider the hedging value of out-of-the-money call options on crude oil [1] Precious Metals - The U.S. reported a rebound in Q2 GDP at an annualized rate of 3%, exceeding expectations, while ADP employment increased by 104,000, also above expectations [2] - Following the data release, the dollar strengthened, putting pressure on precious metals, which are expected to continue adjusting in a volatile manner due to reduced risk aversion and clearer tariff negotiations [2] Copper - Copper prices fell sharply, with a near 20% drop in short-term prices, as the U.S. imposed tariffs on copper products, impacting market sentiment [3] - The COMEX copper inventory has reached 250,000 tons, and the market is closely watching the implementation of the U.S. tariff agreements [3] - Despite the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates, a stronger dollar is suppressing copper prices, with adjustments expected towards the 60-day moving average [3] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices continued to fluctuate, with seasonal demand showing signs of decline and inventory levels increasing [4] - The market is experiencing a drop in aluminum alloy profits, with short-term price pressures expected despite some resilience in the medium term [5] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices opened high but experienced significant fluctuations, with total market inventory continuing to rise [10] - Traders are optimistic, with spot market activity increasing, and Australian mine prices reported at $845, indicating a rebound from low levels [10] Steel Market - Steel prices are experiencing a downward trend, with rebar demand showing slight recovery but overall investment in infrastructure and manufacturing slowing down [13] - Iron ore prices are fluctuating, with global shipments exceeding last year's levels, but domestic port arrivals are weak, leading to a potential slight reduction in inventory [14] Agricultural Products - U.S. soybean quality ratings are at 70%, higher than expected, indicating a potential for early harvest expectations [35] - Corn futures are fluctuating, with U.S. corn quality ratings at 73%, suggesting a stable growth trend [39] - The domestic demand for urea is weak, with production increasing but overall demand remaining low [23] Financial Markets - The A-share market showed increased volatility, with major indices experiencing mixed movements, and the market sentiment remains relatively positive [47] - The bond market is expected to enter a repair phase, with the yield curve likely to steepen due to increased fiscal measures [48]

金价，暴跌！ 近期，国际金价持续走低。7月23日至28日，COMEX黄金期货价格连续4个交易日下跌，累计跌幅近4%。 现货黄金同步走低，7月28日，伦敦金现收报3314.18美元/盎司，较7月22日高点跌超110美元/盎司。 金饰大盘价随之下行，国内知名品牌金饰品每克价格普遍回到千元以内。7月29日，周生生金饰价格为994元/克，较7月23日高点的1029元/克下跌35元/ 克；老庙黄金为995元/克，6天下跌28元/克；周大福为998元/克，6天下跌25元/克。 | 品牌: | 老庙 | > | 产品: 黄金价格 | > | 开始时间: | 结束时间: | 查询 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品牌名称 | | | 产品名称 | | 价格 | 涨跌 | 更新时间 | | 老庙 | | | 黄金价格 | | 995 | | 2025-07-29 | | 老庙 | | | 黄金价格 | | 997 | | 2025-07-28 | | 老庙 | | | 黄金价格 | | 999 | | 2025-07-26 | | 老庙 | | | 黄 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to experience fluctuations, with potential for a stronger upward trend, influenced by technical support and ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations [1][3][5]. Market Analysis - On July 29, gold opened at $3,314.51 per ounce, fluctuated between a low of $3,307.89 and a high of $3,333.88, and closed at $3,326.33, marking a daily increase of $11.82 or 0.36% [1]. - The market is currently awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and key economic data, which may limit price movements [3][5]. - The U.S. dollar index has shown strength, which typically puts pressure on gold prices, but the overall market sentiment remains cautious due to global uncertainties [3][5]. Technical Indicators - The monthly chart indicates that if gold cannot rebound above $3,400, it may signal a top and increase the risk of a decline to $3,000 or even $2,500 [7]. - The weekly chart shows that gold has recently stopped falling, and while bearish signals persist, the overall trend suggests potential for upward movement after a period of adjustment [9]. - The daily chart reflects a stop in the downward trend, with strong support from the 100-day moving average, indicating that further pullbacks could present buying opportunities [10]. Trading Strategy - The current trading strategy leans towards short positions or a range-bound approach, with key support levels at $3,324 and $3,318, and resistance levels at $3,335 and $3,343 for gold [11].

近期对黄金利空的因素，主要在美国与一系列国家和地区暂时达成了贸易协议。 期货公司观点 广发期货： 尽管前期出于对贸易冲突的担忧部分资金选择押注黄金多头，但 8 月 1 日到来前或有更多国家和美国达 成贸易协议，且美联储 7 月降息概率较低，都对美元资产形成支撑从而抑制金价涨幅，后期市场将回归 美国经济基本面的影响逻辑。 技术面上国际金价持续盘中形成三角形态在 3450 美元的前高存在阻力缺乏较强突破的驱动，短期国际 金价冲高回落受到国内商品市场情绪扰动可能再度测试60 日均线（沪金760元附近）的支撑，可逢低阶 段做多把握连跌后修复。 特别是欧盟，美国与欧盟达成贸易协议后，将对欧盟商品征收的进口关税定为15%，远低于此前特朗普 威胁的30%税率。 这一协议有效避免了美欧之间爆发更大规模的贸易战，为全球市场注入了确定性。 受此影响，美元指数上涨，而由于避险情绪的退散，此前因此上涨的黄金受利空下跌。 日内收盘，沪金下跌0.24%，报收771.44元/克。 ...

Group 1 - Spot gold prices have dropped to a multi-week low around $3316.50 per ounce, with limited buying interest observed [1] - Silver is fluctuating cautiously near a low point of $38, reflecting a similar trend to gold [1] - The easing of safe-haven demand is attributed to the US-EU trade agreement, alongside a potential 1.5% rise in the US dollar, which is pressuring precious metal prices [1] Group 2 - Market expectations regarding interest rate changes remain cautious, with a 96.9% probability of no change in July and a 62.6% chance of a rate cut in September [2] - Structural differentiation in tariffs is noted, with countries like South Korea, Canada, and Chile seeking favorable terms, which reduces systemic risk premiums [2] - The geopolitical landscape is entering a rebalancing phase, with a ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia reducing short-term safe-haven demand, while US-Russia tensions are escalating [2] Group 3 - The strong rebound of the US dollar continues to exert pressure on gold prices, with a potential drop below $3300 leading to support levels around $3275-$3285 [3] - Silver prices are also under pressure from a strong dollar, with support levels at $37.30-$37.50 and potential further decline towards $35.65-$35.85 [3] - The precious metals market is expected to experience increased volatility, with key focus on the outcomes of the July 30 FOMC meeting and ongoing negotiations between the US and China [3]