Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss macroeconomic policies and trade negotiations involving the United States, European Union, Japan, and China, with a focus on the implications for the U.S. capital markets and the domestic economic environment in China. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Trade Negotiations** - The EU and the U.S. have restarted high-level trade talks, but no specific timeline has been set. The UK is cautious about reaching a trade agreement, emphasizing food safety standards [1][2] - In U.S.-China negotiations, there is a proposal to reduce current tariffs on China from approximately 145% to about half, but China denies any such discussions [2] - U.S.-Japan negotiations have begun, focusing on automotive market access, increased agricultural imports, and defense cost sharing, with Japan taking a cautious stance [1][2] 2. **Monetary Policy Outlook** - The Federal Reserve has adopted a dovish tone, indicating potential rate cuts if the job market deteriorates, with a 58% probability of a rate cut in June [1][4][10] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI was slightly above expectations at 50.7, while the services PMI was below expectations at 51.4 [4] 3. **Impact of Tariff Policies** - The imposition of reciprocal tariffs has significantly impacted the U.S. capital markets, particularly the bond market, and has led to a redistribution of power within Trump's team regarding trade negotiations [5] - The Treasury Secretary has played a crucial role in U.S.-China negotiations, with ongoing discussions with India and Vietnam [5] 4. **Liquidity and Debt Ceiling Issues** - The Federal Reserve may adjust or end its balance sheet reduction by mid-2025, but the debt ceiling issue has temporarily released liquidity into the market [6][7] - If the debt ceiling is resolved, the replenishment of the Treasury General Account (TGA) could tighten liquidity in Q3 2025, posing risks to leveraged traders [6] 5. **Japan's Response to Tariffs** - Japan has implemented measures to support businesses, focusing on consulting and financing rather than direct subsidies, to enhance competitiveness and resilience against international trade challenges [8] 6. **Domestic Economic Policies in China** - The Chinese government is emphasizing the protection of domestic demand and is prepared to implement more effective measures to address external risks [3][14] - There is a focus on accelerating the issuance of local government bonds and special long-term bonds to support fiscal spending [16] - Monetary policy will include targeted loans for service consumption and elderly care to stimulate related industries [17] 7. **Employment and Consumption Policies** - The Chinese government prioritizes employment stability, with measures to support affected industries and enhance the unemployment insurance fund [19][20] - There is a significant push to develop service consumption, which has a larger potential gap compared to goods consumption, indicating a shift in policy focus [18][25] 8. **Real Estate Market Dynamics** - The real estate market is expected to maintain stability despite recent sales declines, with a need for monitoring land acquisition and storage policies [21] 9. **Policy Implementation and Future Directions** - The recent political bureau meeting indicates a clear policy direction focusing on economic stability and preparedness for external challenges, with an emphasis on structural adjustments in response to changing economic conditions [22][24] - The government is likely to introduce new structural monetary tools to address specific economic issues as they arise [24][31] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The records highlight the importance of maintaining a balance between domestic economic growth and external trade pressures, with a clear acknowledgment of the complexities introduced by ongoing trade tensions [26][29] - The need for effective mechanisms to transition some export goods to domestic consumption is emphasized, particularly in light of tariff impacts [28] - The potential for policy measures to support low-income groups affected by trade disruptions is noted, including social security enhancements [29] This summary encapsulates the key insights and implications from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and policy directions.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the Chinese economy, focusing on various sectors including real estate, infrastructure, consumer services, and the impact of external trade policies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth and Risk Management**: The Political Bureau meeting emphasized the dual focus on stabilizing growth and managing risks, indicating a stronger policy response to economic challenges, particularly in service consumption and support for foreign trade enterprises [1][2][3]. 2. **Real Estate Strategy**: The meeting highlighted the importance of real estate, proposing a new development model that includes increasing the supply of high-quality housing and optimizing land acquisition policies to stabilize the market [1][19][20]. 3. **Infrastructure Investment**: Government investment is seen as a key driver, with a focus on major projects in economically advantageous regions like the Yangtze River Delta and Greater Bay Area, as well as significant projects in western regions [1][28][29]. 4. **Service Consumption Growth**: There is a strong signal to boost income for low- and middle-income groups and develop service consumption, with expectations that service retail will account for over 40% of total retail sales by 2027 [1][37][41]. 5. **Impact of Tariffs on Textile and Apparel**: Chinese textile and apparel companies are adapting to U.S. tariff policies by relocating production to Southeast Asia, while maintaining competitiveness through price adjustments [1][42][44]. 6. **Cross-Border E-commerce**: The cross-border e-commerce market is thriving despite tariff challenges, with companies like Dunhuang.com performing well in the U.S. market [1][43]. 7. **AI and Technology in Retail**: The integration of AI technology is transforming the retail landscape, with major Chinese internet companies investing heavily in AI infrastructure and applications [1][50][51]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Challenges in Land Acquisition**: The government faces challenges in land acquisition policies, including pricing and funding issues, which may hinder the execution of real estate strategies [1][22][23]. 2. **Slow Progress in Urban Village Renovation**: Urban village renovation has been slow, with various obstacles such as funding models and compensation mechanisms affecting progress [1][24]. 3. **Consumer Behavior Trends**: New consumption trends are emerging, with a focus on personalized and unique experiences driving growth in sectors like beauty care and personal grooming [1][48][49]. 4. **Investment Opportunities in Infrastructure**: The emphasis on urban renewal and infrastructure investment presents significant opportunities for growth in the construction and related sectors [1][31][32]. 5. **Potential for High-Quality Housing**: The trend towards high-quality housing is gaining momentum, with local governments implementing new standards to enhance living conditions [1][21][25]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current economic landscape and potential investment opportunities within various sectors.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the need to actively respond to external tariff impacts, highlighting the importance of preparing adequate contingency plans in light of increasing external shocks [10][12][16] - The report outlines seven key points from the April 25 Politburo meeting, including the urgency to implement existing "proactive" policies and to increase reserves for "reactive" policies in response to uncertainties from tariffs [12][13][16] - There is a strong focus on boosting consumption, particularly in the service sector, as a means to enhance economic growth, with specific measures proposed to increase consumer spending [13][14][16] Group 2 - The report indicates a shift in real estate policy towards stabilization, with future measures expected to focus on supply-side initiatives rather than demand stimulation [14][16] - Support for companies significantly affected by tariffs is highlighted, particularly in terms of maintaining employment levels [14][16] - The report suggests that the capital market will remain stable and active, with backing from central financial institutions to support the A-share market [15][16] Group 3 - The analysis of the bond market indicates a phase of volatility, with expectations of a potential downward trend in interest rates as the government increases bond issuance [19] - In the stock market, there is a cautious outlook due to ongoing tariff negotiations and a potential decrease in risk appetite as holidays approach [19][20] - The report notes that sectors with high dividend yields, such as banking and utilities, are seen as defensive plays, while gold stocks may provide risk hedging opportunities [19][20]

21世纪经济报道记者王峰 北京报道 中共中央政治局4月25日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工 作。 外部冲击影响加大，保民生稳就业显得殊为重要。会议指出，要提高中低收入群体收入，大力发展服务 消费，增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用。 会议还强调，要着力保民生。对受关税影响较大的企业，提高失业保险基金稳岗返还比例。 居民增收减负和稳就业，是一段时间以来既定的政策举措，并将根据外部冲击变化调整优化应对办法。 就业关乎中低收入群体的生活质量和消费能力。政治局会议指出，要着力保民生。对受关税影响较大的 企业，提高失业保险基金稳岗返还比例。 今年一季度，我国市场销售增长加快，消费活力增强。国家统计局数据显示，一季度，社会消费品零售 总额124671亿元，同比增长4.6%；服务零售额同比增长5.0%，高于同期商品零售额增速0.4个百分点。 今年3月，国务院发展研究中心原副主任刘世锦在中国发展高层论坛2025年年会上表示，从消费内容 看，消费不足主要是服务消费不足，重点是教育、医疗、保障性住房、社保、养老等与基本公共服务相 关的发展型消费不足。 可见，服务消费一方面尚有不足，另一方面潜力巨大。而促进服务消费，重在提高居民 ...

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者民生宏观团队 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 文 | 陶川 邵翔 张云杰 钟渝梅 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 4月政治局会议的关键点，聚焦在"底线"和"预案"。风急浪高的外部形势更加考验政策层对 于政策节奏和力度的把握，说到底"经贸斗争"比拼的是韧性和耐力，以及随机应变的"后手 棋"，因此政策布局呈现明显的"两步走"特征： "底线"要稳、要兜牢，重点在存量政策加 速，保民生、稳就业、帮企业、化风险；"预案"要足、要"求进"，新工具、新政策、新模 式蓄势待发。 具体看来以下五大信号值得重点关注： 第一，在"经贸斗争"中比拼韧性和耐力。 这是政治局会议中首次提到"经贸斗争"四个字， 早期二十大报告中便强调过要"敢于斗争、善于斗争"，"敢于斗争"比的是耐力和底气，"善 于斗争"比的是制度自信。与2018年的首轮经贸冲突不一样的是，如今的中国能更好地用自 身的确定性去应对外部的不确定性，这从近期美国贸易不确定性指数远远高于中国就得以凸 显。 第二，政策分为"两步走"：第一步看存量政策，"要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of improving the income distribution structure to stimulate consumption and promote economic growth in China, suggesting that enhancing disposable income for residents is crucial for driving internal demand and economic recovery [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Income Distribution - The relationship between macro income distribution structure and economic growth is a long-standing research theme, indicating that the distribution of income among enterprises, government, and households can significantly influence economic growth through consumption and investment [6][7]. - China's current economic challenges include over-investment and under-consumption, with a low share of disposable income for residents compared to developed countries, which hinders consumption growth [11][14][17]. - The article highlights that the income distribution structure in China has been increasingly skewed, with a significant gap between urban and rural incomes, necessitating government intervention through effective redistribution mechanisms [7][8][14]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - To stimulate consumption and economic growth, the article suggests increasing transfer payments to households, optimizing government spending, and reforming the tax system to enhance disposable income [4][22][25]. - Specific measures include raising the personal income tax threshold, reducing tax rates for low- and middle-income groups, and improving the transfer payment system to ensure funds reach those in need [26][27]. - The article advocates for a balanced approach in fiscal policy, emphasizing the need to support both consumption and investment while addressing social welfare and public service spending [40][41]. Group 3: Consumption Structure and Service Sector - The article notes that service consumption is on the rise globally, and China should aim to increase the share of service consumption in total household expenditure, which currently lags behind developed countries [29][31]. - It suggests that government purchases can stimulate market supply and related investments, particularly in the service sector, to enhance overall economic demand [32][33]. - The article also emphasizes the need for tax reforms that align with economic structure adjustments, supporting modern industries and consumption upgrades [33][34].

智通财经APP获悉，华尔街金融巨头高盛集团在最新发布的一份美国电商行业研究报告中，系统性地分析了全球关税政策升级对美国电商行业的多维度冲 击，重点聚焦终端需求变化与美国关税政策之下的电商成本传导机制。高盛研究团队基于宏观经济模型、历史周期对比(2007-2009年金融危机参照)以及高频 数据跟踪，预判2025Q1与Q2电商板块面临关税成本带来的盈利预期下行风险，但结构性的投资机遇存在于未来消费者们愈发向服务性质的消费转移以及电 商龙头平台的强大业绩韧性，这些颇具弹性的电商股有望大幅跑赢美股大盘——标普500指数。 在美股市场，多数电商股，以及零售类股票自4月以来持续面临抛售，大幅跑输标普500指数，并且美国金融市场出现史上罕见的"股债汇三杀"，主要逻辑在 于全球资金对于美元资产的持有信心因特朗普关税政策带来的宏观经济层面巨大不确定性，以及特朗普政府欲罢免鲍威尔威胁到美联储独立性而大幅削减， 加之多数投资者押注特朗普激进的进口商品关税政策带来的通胀卷土重来趋势，可能令近年来因通胀持续高企而钱包捉襟见肘的美国消费者们愈发削减支 出。 密歇根大学消费者调查数据显示，消费者信心指数创下自2022年6月以来的最低水平， ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 近一周，扩内需信号进一步明确，主要涉及就业、地产、股市、服务消费等。 1 、高层定调：总理在三次会议或调研上，均高度关注经济问题。 1 ） 4 月 15 日， 总理在北京调研 消费及地产相关内容。 2 ） 4 月 17 日， 总理主持国务院专题学习，以预期管理为主题，提出要"要 讲究政策时机，在一些关键的时间窗口，推动各方面政策措施早出手、快出手，对预期形成积极影 响。 要把握政策力度，必要时敢于打破常规 "。 3 ） 4 月 18 日，总理主持召开国常会，研究稳就业 稳经济问题。提出要" 锚定经济社会发展目标 ，加大逆周期调节力度"。 2 、股市楼市： 1 ） 4 月 15 日 ，总理在北京调研时提出，"当前和今后一个时期，我国房地产市场 仍有很大的发展空间"。 2 ） 4 月 18 日， 总理主持召开国常会，"要持续稳定股市，持续推动房地产 市场平稳健康发展"。 3 、消费及就业 ： 1 ） 4 月 18 日， 总理主持召开国常 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" with expectations of an upward movement exceeding 15% in the next 3-6 months [11][48]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant acceleration in the growth of the catering sector, with March retail catering revenue increasing by 5.6% year-on-year, up from 4.3% in the previous month. Notably, revenue from enterprises above a certain threshold rose by 6.8%, marking the first time in 12 months that this segment outpaced overall growth [2][18]. - The "2025 Service Consumption Quality Improvement and Benefit Action Plan" was released, outlining 48 specific measures across six areas to enhance service consumption, including catering, accommodation, and tourism [2][21]. - High booking interest for the upcoming May Day holiday was reported, with hotel and flight searches on Ctrip increasing by 100% and 80% respectively week-on-week, and a year-on-year increase of 200% in hotel searches for inbound travel [3][22]. Summary by Sections Industry Updates - The catering sector continues to show improvement, with March retail catering revenue growth accelerating. The report emphasizes the importance of service consumption policies and the upcoming May Day holiday as key drivers [2][18]. - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management by Tongcheng Travel for approximately 2.497 billion yuan is noted, with an EV/EBITDA valuation of 9.5 times. This acquisition is seen as strategically beneficial for enhancing Tongcheng's hotel supply chain [4][26]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the social service sector has shown a strong performance, with the sector's index rising by 8.64% over the past two weeks, ranking third among 31 major industry sectors [8][29]. - Specific stock performances are highlighted, with notable increases in the catering sector, including a 12.73% rise in A-share catering stocks [8][29]. Company Performance - Action Education reported a revenue of 780 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a 16.5% increase, with a net profit of 270 million yuan, up 22.4% [5][28]. - Jiuhua Tourism is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 69 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a 32% year-on-year growth, driven by strong visitor traffic [4][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the catering sector, particularly on growth-oriented companies and undervalued leaders affected by tariff impacts, with specific mentions of brands like Gu Ming and Da Shi [9][16]. - In the hotel and tourism sectors, attention is drawn to quality scenic spots and hotel stocks, particularly Shou Lv Hotel [9][16].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and creating more consumption scenarios to continuously release consumption potential, highlighting the need for high-quality supply to create effective demand [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The relationship between consumption stagnation and supply not meeting demand is noted, with a structural contradiction of excess low-end supply and insufficient high-quality supply [2]. - The article points out that while the consumption structure in China has been optimizing, there is still a significant need for innovation in products and services to meet the evolving consumer demands [2]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - As residents' income levels rise, there is a shift towards development-oriented, enjoyment-oriented, and quality-oriented consumption, indicating a need for deeper exploration of these demands [2]. - The first quarter of this year saw a 5.4% year-on-year increase in per capita service consumption expenditure, which accounted for 43.4% of total per capita consumption expenditure, suggesting a shift towards service consumption as a primary development direction [3]. Group 3: Policy and Support for Innovation - The article mentions the issuance of the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" by the Central and State Offices, which aims to enhance consumption capacity through income increases and burden reductions [1]. - It highlights the necessity for enterprises to innovate in products and services to enhance competitiveness, with a call for supportive measures from relevant departments, especially for private and small enterprises [2]. Group 4: Future Directions for Consumption - The need to cultivate a complete internal demand system is emphasized, with a focus on both enhancing traditional consumption and fostering new types of consumption [3]. - The article advocates for the promotion of green and low-carbon consumption, aiming for a positive interaction between supply upgrades and consumption upgrades through targeted policies [3].