商品消费走弱但品类分化、服务消费韧性较强、城镇消费明显放缓。 进入四季度，随着去年高基数效应显现和前期政策效果减弱，社会消费品零售总额当月同比进一步回 落，10~11月均值已经降至2%左右。此前笔者在《需充分重视中国消费出现的七大结构性分化》中梳理 了国内消费市场的一系列分化，四季度以来，有些分化还在延续，同时出现了一些新变化。 本篇文章中，笔者分析了近期消费数据的新特征新趋势，并结合中央经济工作会议部署提出了一些短期 政策建议，以期更好推动消费回暖、缓解结构分化。 商品消费持续走弱，但细分品类表现分化 四季度以来，由于去年同期基数较高以及政策效果减弱，商品零售额当月同比增速连续6个月走弱，11 月降至1%，创2023年8月以来的最低增速。 以旧换新相关商品零售明显放缓。限额以上单位商品零售中，11月家用电器和音像器材、汽车类零售同 比增速分别下降了19.4%和8.3%。作为最早纳入以旧换新补贴范围的两大品类，家电、汽车消费的透支 效应显现。房地产相关的家具（-3.8%）、建筑及装潢材料（-17.0%）类零售增速也显著回落。 同时，通讯器材、办公用品的较快增长存在不确定性。11月通讯器材、文化办公用品类零售同 ...

本报记者 刘萌 12月19日，商务部消费促进司负责人谈2025年11月我国消费市场情况时表示，11月份，社会消费品零售总额4.39万亿元， 同比（下同）增长1.3%。1-11月份，社会消费品零售总额45.6万亿元，增长4.0%，累计增速快于去年同期0.5个百分点。 三是新型消费需求旺盛。1-11月份，网络零售额增长9.1%，其中实物商品网上零售额增长5.7%。据商务部商务大数据，11 月份，重点监测平台运动相机、具身智能机器人、一级能效电视销量增长均超20%。据汽车流通协会数据，11月份新能源乘用 车渗透率达59.3%。 四是乡村消费快于城镇。县域商业体系不断健全，下沉市场消费潜力加速释放。1-11月份，乡村消费品零售额增长4.4%， 增速比城镇快0.5个百分点；11月份，乡村消费品零售额增长2.8%，增速比城镇快1.8个百分点。 （编辑 黄力） 一是商品消费保持平稳。11月份，商品零售额增长1.0%。基本生活类商品销售平稳增长，其中限额以上单位粮油食品、服 装鞋帽零售额分别增长6.1%和3.5%。部分升级类商品销售较快增长，其中金银珠宝、化妆品零售额分别增长8.5%和6.1%。以 旧换新相关品类快速增长，其 ...

三是新型消费需求旺盛。1-11月份，网络零售额增长9.1%，其中实物商品网上零售额增长5.7%。据商务 部商务大数据，11月份，重点监测平台运动相机、具身智能机器人、一级能效电视销量增长均超20%。 据汽车流通协会数据，11月份新能源乘用车渗透率达59.3%。 四是乡村消费快于城镇。县域商业体系不断健全，下沉市场消费潜力加速释放。1-11月份，乡村消费品 零售额增长4.4%，增速比城镇快0.5个百分点；11月份，乡村消费品零售额增长2.8%，增速比城镇快1.8 个百分点。 11月份，社会消费品零售总额4.39万亿元，同比(下同)增长1.3%。1-11月份，社会消费品零售总额45.6 万亿元，增长4.0%，累计增速快于去年同期0.5个百分点。 一是商品消费保持平稳。11月份，商品零售额增长1.0%。基本生活类商品销售平稳增长，其中限额以 上单位粮油食品、服装鞋帽零售额分别增长6.1%和3.5%。部分升级类商品销售较快增长，其中金银珠 宝、化妆品零售额分别增长8.5%和6.1%。以旧换新相关品类快速增长，其中通讯器材、文化办公用品 零售额分别增长20.6%和11.7%。 二是服务消费较快增长。1-11月份，服务零 ...

Economic Growth Overview - In November 2025, China's industrial added value grew by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The service production index increased by 4.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to October[3] - Retail sales of consumer goods rose by 1.3% year-on-year, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[3] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing added value increased by 8.4%, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, outpacing the overall industrial growth rate by 3.6 percentage points[3] - The export delivery value showed a marginal recovery, with a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, improving by 2.0 percentage points from October[3] - The service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November, with a 0.1 percentage point increase compared to the previous month[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November, a drop of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Infrastructure and manufacturing investments maintained expansion, with cumulative year-on-year growth rates of 0.1% and 1.9%, respectively[3] - Equipment purchase investment rose by 12.2% year-on-year, contributing 1.8 percentage points to overall investment growth[3] Risks and Outlook - Risks include potential underperformance of growth stabilization policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalation of geopolitical conflicts[3]

Core Insights - The consumer market in October showed stable growth, with service consumption emerging as a key economic highlight [1][2] - Service retail sales from January to October increased by 5.3% year-on-year, outpacing the growth rate of goods retail sales by 0.9 percentage points [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics indicated that the growth in service consumption is becoming a significant driver of overall consumer spending [1][2] Group 1: Service Consumption Growth - Service retail sales growth accelerated by 0.1 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of the year [1] - The increase in service consumption was driven by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, leading to higher spending in dining, accommodation, and entertainment sectors [1] - Dining revenue rose by 3.8% year-on-year in October, with a significant acceleration of 2.9 percentage points compared to September [1] Group 2: Transportation and Travel Trends - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn holiday, the total inter-regional movement of people reached 2.433 billion, averaging 304 million per day, a 6.3% increase compared to the 2024 holiday [2] - The growth in travel-related services, including tourism and transportation, saw retail sales increase by over 10% from January to October [2] Group 3: Policy Support and Future Outlook - Recent government meetings emphasized the need for policies to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in the consumer market [2] - Experts suggest that expanding consumption scenarios and breaking institutional barriers are crucial for future economic growth, particularly in sectors like education, healthcare, and elderly care [3] - The National Bureau of Statistics highlighted the importance of implementing special actions to boost consumption and innovate new consumption models [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing efforts to boost consumption across various regions and sectors in China, with a focus on initiatives such as trade-in programs for consumer goods and the promotion of digital and service consumption [1][6] - In October, retail sales of sports and entertainment products increased by 10.1% year-on-year, while cosmetics retail sales grew by 9.6%, indicating a shift in consumer spending towards upgraded experiences and products [3][4] - The trade-in policy for consumer goods has shown significant effects, with retail sales of communication equipment rising by 23.2% and cultural office supplies by 13.5% in October, both outpacing the overall retail sales growth [4] Group 2 - Service consumption has also seen positive growth, with retail sales accelerating by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous months, driven by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday effects [5] - Retail sales in the tourism, information services, and cultural and recreational services categories maintained a growth rate of nearly 10% in October, reflecting strong consumer demand in these sectors [5]

Core Insights - Since 2025, the consumption market has shown stable growth due to the implementation of policies aimed at boosting consumption, leading to the continuous release of consumption potential [1] - The retail sales of consumer goods in the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 4.5% year-on-year, reflecting a steady growth in market sales compared to the same period last year [3] - The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 53.5%, an increase of 9.0 percentage points compared to the previous year, continuing to serve as a main engine for economic growth [16] Consumption Trends - The growth of service consumption has accelerated, with service retail sales increasing by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales by 0.6 percentage points [9] - The "old-for-new" policy has driven significant growth in related retail categories, with furniture retail sales increasing by 21.3% year-on-year, and home appliances and cultural office supplies seeing increases of 25.3% and 19.9%, respectively [12] - Online consumption has continued to thrive, with online retail sales growing by 9.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters, indicating a sustained acceleration in growth since May [14] Policy Impact - The macroeconomic research department of the National Information Center indicates that the policy dividends are continuously being released, and innovations in business models are effectively stimulating consumer enthusiasm and meeting the demand for quality and diversified consumption upgrades [6]

Core Insights - The consumer market in China has shown stable growth this year, driven by effective consumption-boosting policies and the expansion of new consumption formats, models, and scenarios [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - The total retail sales of consumer goods in the first three quarters increased by 4.5% year-on-year, which is an acceleration of 1.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year and 1.0 percentage point compared to the entire last year [3] - Service consumption has accelerated, with retail sales in the service sector growing by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales by 0.6 percentage points [3] - Specific service categories such as cultural, sports, and leisure services, communication and information services, and transportation services have all achieved double-digit growth [3] Group 2: Specific Product Categories - The "trade-in" policy has significantly boosted retail sales in related categories, with furniture retail sales increasing by 21.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters [5] - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, as well as cultural and office supplies, grew by 25.3% and 19.9% year-on-year, respectively, showing a marked acceleration compared to the previous year [5] Group 3: Online Consumption - Online retail sales increased by 9.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with growth accelerating since May, indicating a strengthening role of online consumption in driving total retail sales [5] Group 4: Economic Contribution - Final consumption expenditure contributed 53.5% to economic growth in the first three quarters, an increase of 9.0 percentage points compared to the entire last year, reinforcing its role as the main engine of economic growth [6]

Group 1: Overall Economic Performance - The retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year from January to August, with service retail sales growing by 5.1%, indicating a continuous expansion of market sales [1][3] - In August, the retail sales of goods increased by 3.6% year-on-year, supported by policies encouraging consumers to upgrade their purchases and the sales of related products [1][2] Group 2: Consumer Trends - The demand for goods consumption continued to grow, with significant increases in retail sales of home appliances, cultural and office supplies, and furniture, all exceeding 10% year-on-year in August [1][2] - Service consumption showed stable growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1% from January to August, driven by tourism and recreational activities during the summer [2][3] Group 3: New Consumption Patterns - Online retail sales increased by 9.6% year-on-year from January to August, outpacing the overall retail sales growth, with physical goods online retail sales growing by 6.4% [2] - The retail volume of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market grew by over 20% year-on-year in the first eight months [2]

Group 1 - Consumption is the main driver of China's economic growth in the first half of the year, contributing over 50% to GDP growth [1] - In July, China's retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, but the overall consumption trend remains stable [1] - The service retail sector showed resilience, with a 5.2% year-on-year growth from January to July, consistent with the previous six months [1] Group 2 - Policies to stimulate consumption are being implemented, including a significant increase in the "old-for-new" consumption policy, which has led to substantial growth in retail sales of home appliances and other categories [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 69 billion yuan in special bonds to support the "old-for-new" consumption initiative, with plans for additional funding in October [2] - The performance of the service retail sector has opened up greater opportunities for consumption growth, with significant increases in tourism and entertainment-related spending during the summer [2] Group 3 - The demand for digital and online entertainment services is growing, with retail sales in the telecommunications and information services sector increasing by over 10% year-on-year [3] - Deutsche Bank's chief economist in China noted that the government is intensifying support for service consumption, particularly in cultural tourism, healthcare, and domestic services, which are expected to drive economic growth [3] - With the implementation of new policies to support personal consumption loans and the upcoming holiday season, there is optimism for a rebound in consumption growth in the latter half of the year [3]