作者：丁玎 邹婷 朱斌 杨立培 "对等关税"风暴来袭，但美国采购商来中国的脚步未被阻挡。在浙江义乌，4月是圣诞用品采购的重 要时点，在关税摩擦发生后，美国采购商还是来到了义乌，并继续下了订单。义乌国际商贸城的商户 告诉第一财经记者，义乌商品在服务、品控、价格上有一定程度的不可替代性，这也是美国客户依然 选择他们的重要理由。更现场、更财经，一探究竟！ 微信编辑：夏木 ...

Core Viewpoint - The electric vehicle and lithium battery sectors continue to support steady growth in foreign trade exports from China [3] Group 1: Battery Export Growth - In the first quarter, domestic power battery exports reached 37.8 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 21.5% [2] - In March alone, power battery exports were 13.9 GWh, showing a month-on-month growth of 8.6% and a year-on-year growth of 11.3% [2] - Among battery types, ternary batteries dominate exports, with 23 GWh exported in the first quarter, while lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 14.6 GWh [2] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Export Performance - Domestic exports of new energy passenger vehicles reached 419,000 units in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 39.6% [2] - Exports of new energy commercial vehicles totaled 23,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 230% [2] - Pure electric vehicle exports were 290,000 units, up 16.7% year-on-year, while plug-in hybrid vehicle exports reached 152,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 160% [2] Group 3: Market Environment and Tariff Risks - The recent tariff policy from the Trump administration has raised tariffs on power batteries exported to the U.S. to 73.4% and on new energy vehicles to 147.5% [4] - The global tariff risks have increased due to the U.S. initiating a global tariff war, which may affect the competitiveness of domestic battery manufacturers in the U.S. market [5] - Although the U.S. accounts for a small portion of China's new energy exports, potential retaliatory tariffs could impact exports to Europe and other regions [6] Group 4: EU Agreement and Market Adaptation - A new agreement between the EU and China allows for a minimum price restriction on electric vehicle exports, replacing the previously planned 20%-50% tariffs set to take effect in October 2024 [6] - This agreement aims to maintain the price competitiveness of European automakers while enhancing the profit margins for exporting companies [6] - The ongoing tariff friction highlights the need for Chinese new energy companies to develop a new international awareness in increasingly competitive foreign markets [7]

Group 1: Pharmaceutical Industry - The tariff environment has limited short-term disruptions to the pharmaceutical industry, with a focus on the global competitiveness of domestic innovative drugs [2][17][19] - Domestic innovative drug companies have captured significant market shares, such as BTK inhibitors holding 75% and PD-1/PD-L1 monoclonal antibodies over 70% in the domestic market [2][17] - Several Chinese innovative drugs are entering a harvest phase, with Zebutine expected to achieve sales of $2.6 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 105% [2][17] - A recommended list of leading biotech and pharmaceutical companies includes BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and Hengrui Medicine among others [2][17] Group 2: Chemical Industry - Juhua Co., Ltd. - Juhua Co., Ltd. is expected to see significant growth in Q1 2025, with projected net profit ranging from 760 to 840 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 145% to 171% [5][6][36] - The company benefits from a strong position in the refrigerant market, with a production quota of 34% for third-generation refrigerants [6][36] - The refrigerant segment has shown a substantial increase in both volume and price, with revenues reaching 2.618 billion yuan, up 64.63% year-on-year [6][36] Group 3: Aluminum Industry - China Aluminum Corporation - China Aluminum Corporation is projected to achieve a net profit of 3.4 to 3.6 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 53% to 63% [8][10] - The company is enhancing its resource strategy and has a significant aluminum ore reserve of approximately 2.7 billion tons [8][10] - Expansion projects are underway, with a new 500,000-ton electrolytic aluminum capacity expected to come online in December 2024 [10]

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core View - In the context of tariff frictions, the overall driving force is weak, and cotton prices are expected to remain weak [30]. Summary by Directory International Cotton Market Analysis - In the 2024/25 season, the global supply is generally loose. The global cotton production is estimated to increase to 26.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.74 million tons, mainly due to a significant increase in China's cotton production. The global cotton consumption is 25.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 490,000 tons, mainly due to the obvious increase in cotton consumption in countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Thailand. The global cotton ending inventory in the 2024/25 season is expected to decrease by 20,000 tons from the previous month's estimate, and increase by 910,000 tons year - on - year [2]. - The supply of US cotton is loose, but there is an expectation of a decline in the future planting area. The 2024/25 US cotton production is expected to be 3.14 million tons, with little change from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 510,000 tons. The ending inventory is expected to be 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. In March 2025, the estimated cotton planting area in the US is 9.867 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 12% [5]. Domestic Cotton Fundamentals - China's cotton production in 2024 exceeded expectations. The single - yield reached a record high of 2,171.6 kg/ha, a year - on - year increase of about 7.8%. The total national production is estimated to be 6.84 million tons. It is expected that the cotton planting area in China will increase by 0.8% in 2025, but the single - yield may decline, and the production will also decrease year - on - year [8]. - As of the end of February 2025, China's national cotton commercial inventory was 5.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 140,000 tons, and the industrial inventory was 930,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. Both inventories are at the highest level in the same period of history [10][11]. - As of the end of February 2025, the yarn inventory of domestic textile enterprises was 22.32 days, an increase of 0.6 days from the previous month and 3.6 days year - on - year. The grey fabric inventory was 29.43 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous month and an increase of 2.2 days year - on - year [15]. China's Textile and Apparel Demand - According to customs data, from January to February 2025, China's textile and apparel exports decreased by 4.5% year - on - year. The US has imposed high - tariff policies on China, and China has also counter - imposed tariffs. China's textile exports are expected to decline by about 10% [19]. - From January to February 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles in China increased by 3.3% year - on - year, but the growth rate is still low [22]. Cost and Profit - The current domestic spot yarn - cotton price difference is around 6,200 yuan/ton, at a historically low level. In 2024, the yarn - cotton price difference was in the range of 6,000 - 6,600 yuan/ton, and downstream textile enterprises suffered large losses for a long time [26]. - The purchase price of seed cotton this season is 6.3 yuan/kg, and the corresponding cotton cost is around 14,500 - 15,000 yuan/ton, and the futures market has been at a discount [28]. Trading Logic - From the perspective of the USDA balance sheet, the world is in a stocking cycle in the 2024/25 season, which is a medium - and long - term negative factor for cotton prices. Globally, Brazilian cotton has the lowest cost, about 60 cents. In a period of oversupply, global cotton prices may approach the Brazilian planting cost. However, the expected 12% decrease in the US planting area in the new season will also affect cotton prices [29]. - Domestically, the current supply far exceeds expectations, industrial and commercial inventories are at a high level, downstream yarn and grey fabric inventories are also high, and downstream profits are low. In terms of demand, the US high - tariff policy on China and China's counter - measures will have a long - term impact on cotton demand, and China's textile exports are expected to decline further [29].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant escalation of China's countermeasures in response to the U.S. tariffs, highlighting the equal coverage of tariffs and the depth of export controls, indicating a more robust stance from China compared to previous rounds of trade disputes [1][2][3]. Tariff Measures - On April 4, 2025, China announced a 34% tariff on all imports from the U.S., matching the U.S. tariff coverage [2][3]. - The previous rounds of tariffs from the U.S. had a much higher coverage ratio compared to China's responses, which were 11.5% and 14.7% respectively [3]. Export Controls - China implemented export controls on seven categories of rare earth elements, marking the first use of such measures in the current trade conflict [3][4]. - Rare earth elements are crucial for military and high-tech industries, with China holding a 67.9% share of global rare earth production in 2023 [3][4]. Variety of Countermeasures - The range of countermeasures has expanded, including the suspension of import qualifications for six U.S. companies due to health and safety concerns [4][5]. Future Considerations - The article suggests that U.S. tariffs may experience fluctuations, with attention needed on statements from key advisors like Navarro and Lighthizer [5]. - Three factors could influence future developments: the response of other countries, changes in U.S. domestic polling, and the stance of Congress as public opinion shifts [5]. Market Strategy - The uncertainty in the market has increased, leading to a decline in investor risk appetite, prompting a focus on core assets and self-sufficiency [6][7]. - A-shares are expected to outperform Hong Kong and U.S. stocks due to the structure of investors [7]. Sector Focus - The agricultural sector is identified as a direct beneficiary of the counter-tariff measures, with expectations of rising prices for agricultural products [10][11]. - The machinery sector is anticipated to accelerate domestic substitution and self-sufficiency in high-end manufacturing [12][13]. Impact on U.S. Economy - The negative impact of China's counter-tariff policies on the U.S. economy is expected to be concentrated in agriculture, oil and gas, aerospace, and electronics sectors [9]. - U.S. exports to China are heavily reliant on agriculture, with significant portions of soybean and corn exports directed to China [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the imminent implementation of Trump's tariff policies in early April, focusing on the implications for various industries and the potential impact on U.S.-China trade relations [1][2]. Tariff Policy Implementation - Key tariff-related developments set to take effect in early April include the "America First Trade Policy" memorandum investigation, reciprocal tariffs, secondary tariffs on Venezuelan oil imports, and automobile tariffs [1][2]. - The "America First Trade Policy" memorandum, released on January 20, 2025, indicates a shift in Trump's negotiation strategy regarding trade relations with China, moving away from border security as the primary justification for tariffs [2]. Reciprocal Tariffs - The imposition of reciprocal tariffs will consider tariffs, turnover taxes, regulations, and non-tariff trade barriers [3]. - Targeted economies for these tariffs may include India, Brazil, Vietnam, South Korea, and certain sectors in the EU and Japan, as they have higher average tariff rates compared to the U.S. [3][4]. Industry Impact Analysis - The impact of tariffs on exports is non-linear, with industries facing higher cumulative tariff rates experiencing more significant declines in exports to the U.S. in the first two months of the year [5]. - Industries with cumulative tariff rates between 40% and 50%, such as leather goods, automobiles, and wooden products, saw an average export growth decline of 46.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [5]. Labor-Intensive Industries - Labor-intensive industries in China, such as toys, furniture, and footwear, have a high proportion of revenue from U.S. exports, making them more vulnerable to additional cost pressures from tariffs [6]. - The revenue share from U.S. exports for these labor-intensive sectors is notably high, with toys at 32.6%, furniture at 25.0%, and footwear at 24.3% [6]. Macro Economic Trends - The macroeconomic environment shows a decline in industrial enterprise revenue and profit growth in early 2025, with profit margins shifting towards lower-end industries [7]. - The decrease in profit margins is primarily attributed to falling profitability in the upstream mining sector, likely linked to declining coal prices [7].

[Table_MainInfo] 国内下游复苏向好，美国拟实施对等关税 ――金属行业周报 | 分析师： 张珂 | | SAC NO： S1150523120001 2025 2 | 年 | 月 | 18 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | Table_Summary] [投资要点： | | | | | | 张珂 | | | | | | | | 022-23839062 |  | 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 | | | | | | zhangke@bhzq.com | | 钢铁：随着元宵节后下游继续复工复产，需求有望继续恢复，钢价短期或得 | | | | | | [Table_Contactor] | | 到支撑，需关注宏观消息和事件的影响。 | | | | | | [Table_IndInvest] 行业评级 | | | | | | | | 钢铁 | 中性 | 铜：铜矿供应偏紧的局面将给铜价带来支撑；关税不确定性和贸易战风险对 | | | | | 铜价有压制，但市场对国内刺激宏观需求的预期利 ...