Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged, with various banks providing insights on potential future actions and economic conditions affecting this decision [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Several banks, including Scotiabank and HSBC, anticipate that the ECB will keep interest rates steady, with a cautious approach towards any future rate cuts [1][2]. - Bank of America suggests that ECB President Lagarde will mention the US-EU trade agreement while emphasizing flexibility without committing to future actions [3]. - Societe Generale predicts that the next rate cut may occur in the first quarter of next year, influenced by weakening inflation and increasing negative impacts from tariffs [4]. - UBS believes that the rate cut cycle may have ended due to large-scale fiscal stimulus measures being introduced in the EU, which are expected to support the economy starting next year [6]. - Danske Bank concludes that the easing cycle is likely over, with rates expected to remain unchanged until the end of next year due to unexpected growth and fiscal measures [7]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and ECB's Position - Monex Group indicates that if Lagarde officially announces victory over inflation and signals the end of the current easing cycle, the euro may appreciate [8]. - French Foreign Trade Bank notes that a final rate cut of 25 basis points in December is possible, contingent on a more severe slowdown in the labor market than anticipated [9]. - Berenberg Bank highlights that the market is focused on how the ECB will respond to political turmoil in France, although Lagarde is likely to remain silent on this matter [10]. - ING suggests that the current rationale for the ECB's inaction is strong, but the market may be underestimating the possibility of another rate cut this year [11].

自2023年达到4%的阶段利率峰值之后，欧央行随后降息8次，目前 存款机制利率 （Deposit facility rate）为2%， 主要再融资利率 （marginal lending facility rate）为2.4%。 | Date (with effect from) | | Deposit facility | Main refinancing operations | | Marginal lending facility Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Fixed rate | Fixed rate tenders Minimum bid rate | Variable rate tenders | | | 2025 | 11 Jun. | 2.00 | 2.15 | - | 2.40 | | 2025 | 23 Apr. | 2.25 | 2.40 | . | 2.65 | | 2025 | 12 Mar. | 2.50 | 2.65 | . | 2.90 | | 2025 | 5 Feb. | 2.75 | 2.90 | | ...

Group A: ETF Holdings - Since July, there have been 20 changes in gold holdings, with 12 increases and 8 decreases [3] - As of September 4, total gold inventory is 981.97 tons, with a decrease of 2.29 tons, valued at approximately $111.92 billion [4] - The frequency and quality of increases in gold holdings have strengthened, particularly after the dovish remarks from Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting [5] Group B: Speculative Sentiment Report - The market sentiment shifted towards a more bullish stance following Powell's dovish speech, leading to a significant increase in gold prices [8] - The current market dynamics suggest that if new highs are reached while the bullish positions are compressed to below 35%, gold prices may continue to rise [8] Group C: Fundamental Analysis - Following the Jackson Hole meeting, market expectations for interest rate cuts have changed, with a focus on potential cuts in December [11] - The dollar is currently fluctuating between 98.6 and 97.6, with expectations that upcoming non-farm payroll data could influence its movement [11] - The geopolitical tensions have lessened, potentially stabilizing the market environment [13] Group D: Non-Farm Payroll Insights - The previous ADP data was revised from 10.6 to 5.4, indicating a softening in private sector employment [14] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is critical, with expectations set between 7.3 and 7.5 million; outcomes will significantly impact gold and dollar valuations [16] Group E: September Outlook - Gold prices have repeatedly set historical highs, driven by strong market speculation [17] - The upcoming interest rate decision on September 18 is anticipated to influence market strategies, with a focus on potential upward movements in gold prices [19]

Group 1 - Switzerland's inflation has shown positive growth for the third consecutive month, with the August CPI rising by 0.2% year-on-year, consistent with previous values [1][3] - The core CPI, excluding volatile items like energy, increased by 0.7% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous 0.8% [1][3] - August is a critical month for rent adjustments in Switzerland, contributing to the overall inflation rate increase [3] Group 2 - The recent inflation data may alleviate pressure on the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to cut interest rates again, especially amid threats of high tariffs from the U.S. [3] - The SNB's Deputy Governor indicated that there are no signs of deflation risks at this stage, and inflation is expected to rise in the coming quarters [3] - Economists predict a slight rebound in overall inflation in Switzerland, hovering around 0.5% in the coming months, while still within the SNB's target range of 0-2% [3] Group 3 - The SNB has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 0% in June, marking the sixth consecutive rate cut since March 2024 [4] - The current zero interest rate level complicates the SNB's decision-making, with officials indicating that reintroducing negative rates would require a higher threshold than normal rate cuts [4] - Market pricing suggests that the SNB will maintain the policy rate at the current level until next year [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have returned to $3,400, indicating a cyclical nature in the market despite ongoing uncertainties such as unresolved trade conflicts and geopolitical risks [1] - The gold market is characterized by a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with $3,300 serving as a central pivot point, where bulls currently have a slight advantage [1] - There is an emphasis on the importance of letting go of non-mainstream trading trends and reducing pressure on oneself when making trading decisions [1] Group 2 - The article highlights that the interest rate decision remains undecided, contributing to market volatility [1] - It suggests that excessive defensiveness can lead to hesitation in trading, advocating for a more relaxed approach to entering and exiting trades [1] - The overall sentiment reflects a need for traders to reconcile with their strategies and avoid overthinking their decisions [1]

Group 1: Market Reaction - The release of a hawkish Federal Reserve meeting minutes triggered panic in the financial markets, leading to a loss of up to $1 trillion in market value for the S&P 500 index within four days [1] - The technology sector was particularly hard hit, with Nvidia experiencing a single-day drop of 4%, resulting in a market value loss exceeding 1.1 trillion RMB [1][5] - The Nasdaq index fell sharply for two consecutive days, while the dollar depreciated and gold surged by $30, indicating a flight to safety [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Internal Conflict - The July meeting minutes revealed significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, with only two out of 19 participants supporting a rate cut, marking a rare occurrence since 1993 [2] - Most officials expressed concerns that inflation risks outweighed employment risks, particularly warning about the long-term impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies on consumer prices [2] Group 3: Technology Sector Challenges - The technology sector faced severe sell-offs, with Palantir experiencing a six-day decline and losing nearly 24% from its peak, while Intel's stock dropped by 7% due to sudden changes in chip subsidy policies [5] - A report from MIT indicated that 95% of companies' investments in artificial intelligence (AI) have not translated into actual profits, raising concerns about a potential bubble in AI stocks [5] - Howard Marks from Oaktree Capital stated that the U.S. stock market is in the early stages of a bubble, with valuations reminiscent of the 1999 tech boom [5] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) surged by 0.9% month-over-month in July, with core inflation reaching a five-month high, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [8] - The Labor Department revised down job creation figures for May and July by over 250,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% [8] - The Federal Reserve acknowledged three financial vulnerabilities: insufficient liquidity in U.S. Treasuries, unrealized losses in banks, and the threat of stablecoin expansion to monetary policy transmission [12]

凯投宏观分析师Paul Ashworth写道："美联储7月会议纪要显示，除了两名希望在7月降息的理事投反对 票外，其他美联储官员普遍认同维持利率不变。就这一点而言，这对9月会议来说是一个略偏鹰派的信 号。但由于纪要的时间早于惨淡的7月就业报告，因此很难从纪要中获得太多关于未来的线索。鉴于后 续发布的数据，这份纪要显然已经过时，美联储主席鲍威尔本周在杰克逊霍尔的演讲，应该会更深入地 揭示9月降息是否已成定局。" 来源：滚动播报 ...

周四，三大指数波动不大，标普500指数连续第三个交易日创历史新高。美国最新公布的PPI数据强于预 期，促使交易商减少对美联储下月降息的押注并令美国国债走低。对货币政策变化最为敏感的两年期国 债收益率一度上涨两个基点，至3.69%，扭转了早些时候的跌势。美元兑一篮子货币亦上涨。利率互换 显示，美联储在9月会议上降息的可能性为90%，而在一天前，市场已经完全消化了美联储9月的降息。 【美股】截至收盘，道指跌11.01点，跌幅为0.02%，报44911.26点；纳指跌2.47点，跌幅为0.01%，报 21710.67点；标普500指数涨1.96点，涨幅为0.03%，报6468.54点。英特尔(INTC.US)涨7.38%，纳斯达克 中国金龙指数跌2.13%，阿里巴巴(BABA.US)跌3.64%。 【欧股】德国DAX30指数涨190.84点，涨幅0.79%，报24380.75点；英国富时100指数涨10.51点，涨幅 0.11%，报9175.74点；法国CAC40指数涨65.37点，涨幅0.84%，报7870.34点；欧洲斯托克50指数涨 47.40点，涨幅0.88%，报5435.65点；西班牙IBEX35指数涨1 ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high for the third consecutive trading day, while the Dow Jones and Nasdaq experienced slight declines [1] - The latest PPI data in the U.S. exceeded expectations, leading traders to reduce bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month [1] - The two-year Treasury yield rose by two basis points to 3.69%, reversing earlier declines [1] U.S. Economic Indicators - The PPI increased by 0.9% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, marking the highest inflation rate in three years, driven by a surge in service costs [6] - Initial jobless claims decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, indicating that employers are reluctant to lay off workers [7] - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 6.58%, the lowest since October of the previous year [8] Company-Specific News - Berkshire Hathaway reduced its stake in Apple by 20 million shares while establishing new positions in UnitedHealth and Nucor [8] - Hillhouse Capital's HHLR Advisors reported a total market value of $3.105 billion, with over 90% in Chinese stocks, highlighting a strong preference for quality Chinese assets [9] - The Trump administration is negotiating a potential investment in Intel to support its domestic manufacturing efforts [10] - Apple Watch's blood oxygen tracking feature has returned to the U.S. market after a legal dispute, now allowing data to be displayed on paired iPhones [11]

花旗集团经济学家Faraz Syed分析指出，此次政策声明的整体基调可能呈现中性偏宽松的倾向。若与先 前声明相比，该行对经济预测的调整显示2026年失业率可能小幅攀升且通胀水平有所回落，则政策立场 或将更趋宽松。市场普遍关注此次利率决议的措辞变化，特别是对通胀预期和就业市场前景的评估。分 析人士认为，若联储下调通胀预期并上调失业率预测，可能暗示未来存在进一步放宽政策的可能性。当 前市场定价已基本消化本次降息预期，投资者更关注的是联储对后续政策路径的前瞻指引。 周一（8月11日）亚市早盘，澳元兑美元下跌，目前交投于0.65附近，截止北京时间11:42分，澳元/美元 报价0.6526，上涨0.02%，上一交易日澳元/美元收盘报0.6524。澳洲联储预计将于周二宣布降息25个基 点，将官方隔夜拆款利率从3.85%下调至3.6%。 澳元兑美元0.6465附近可能为澳元兑美元提供支撑，其下方是100日简单移动平均线（SMA）。若跌破 0.6420-0.6415区域（即上周五触及的一个多月低点），将为空头提供新的触发信号。随之而来的下跌可 能拖累现货价格跌破0.6400整数关口，向6月月度震荡低点0.6375-0.637 ...