Economic Performance - The U.S. stock market saw gains with the Dow Jones up 1.26%, Nasdaq up 1.02%, and S&P 500 up 1.46% for the week [1] - European stock indices showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 up 1.43%, while Germany's DAX 30 fell 0.30% and France's CAC 40 rose 0.15% [1] - The Eurozone is set to release Q2 GDP data, which will provide insights into the impact of tariff uncertainties on the economy [8] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% during its upcoming meeting [3] - Recent inflation data indicates a rise, suggesting a strong economy, which may influence future rate decisions [3][4] - Market expectations are leaning towards a potential rate cut in October, with the job market and economic indicators being closely monitored [4] Trade Agreements and Tariffs - President Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, which may serve as a template for negotiations with the EU, particularly regarding a 15% tariff rate [3] - The deadline for the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" is August 1, raising concerns about potential market volatility depending on the outcome of trade negotiations [3][4] Corporate Earnings - The earnings season is gaining momentum, with major tech companies like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta set to report their results [5] - Other notable companies to watch include Procter & Gamble, VISA, and UnitedHealth [5] Commodity Prices - International oil prices experienced a slight decline, with WTI crude down 1.35% to $65.16 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.21% to $68.44 per barrel [6] - Gold prices fell by 0.57%, closing at $3334.00 per ounce, influenced by a stronger dollar and positive trade negotiation signals [6][7] Economic Indicators - Key economic data releases this week include the U.S. Q2 GDP initial estimate, PCE inflation data, and the July non-farm payroll report [4][5] - The UK is set to release various economic indicators, including the nationwide house price index and consumer credit data, which may provide insights into future economic trends [8]

Economic Indicators - The July PMI data will be released on July 31, with June's manufacturing PMI at 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision on July 31, with expectations to maintain a wait-and-see approach in July, potentially starting rate cuts in September, as current economic indicators do not show signs of a slowdown or significant inflation risk [4][5]. Regulatory Developments - Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation will come into effect on August 1, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority emphasizing the need for careful implementation to prevent market speculation and financial risks [6]. Corporate Earnings - Major tech companies including Microsoft and Meta will report their earnings on July 30, while Apple and Amazon will follow on July 31. Boeing is set to disclose its performance on July 29 [7]. Stock Market Activity - Over 1,000 billion yuan worth of restricted shares will be unlocked from July 28 to August 1, totaling 3.385 billion shares across 54 companies, with a peak on July 28 when 26 companies will unlock shares worth 454.26 billion yuan [9][10]. New Stock Offerings - Three new stocks will be available for subscription next week: Tianfulong on July 28, Youli Intelligent on July 29, and Guangdong Jianke on August 1 [12][13].

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3359.85 per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.24% [1] - The highest price reached was $3373.25 per ounce, while the lowest was $3357.70 per ounce, indicating a short-term bearish trend for gold [1] - Gold prices have been suppressed below the $3400 mark for two consecutive trading days, with buyers entering around $3350 [5] Group 2 - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.416%, contributing to an increase in the real yield, which reached 2.046% [3] - The U.S. dollar index strengthened, closing up 0.28% at 97.48 [3] - The European Central Bank decided to maintain key interest rates, indicating a high threshold for any potential rate cuts in September [3] Group 3 - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting, with a 96% probability for no change [3] - Gold prices are expected to remain in a consolidation phase ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, with potential resistance at $3400 and targets at $3438 and $3452 [5] - A drop below $3350 could challenge the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, located at $3347 and $3341 respectively [5]

Group 1 - Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve marks the first time a sitting U.S. president has visited the Fed in nearly 20 years, making him the fourth president to do so [2] - The visit coincides with rising criticism regarding the Fed's $2.5 billion renovation project, suggesting Trump's interest may relate to his background in real estate development [2] - Trump has been pressuring Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates from the current target range of 4.25%-4.50% to 1% to alleviate fiscal pressure [2] Group 2 - Market expectations indicate that the Fed is likely to maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting, with only about a 60% chance of a rate cut in September according to the CME FedWatch tool [3] - Recent data shows a decrease in initial jobless claims, indicating a resilient U.S. labor market, which supports the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged [4] Group 3 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to pause interest rate cuts for the first time in over a year, citing that current inflation has reached the mid-term target of 2% [5] - ECB President Christine Lagarde warned of downside risks to economic growth, particularly due to escalating global trade tensions [5] - There are expectations that the ECB may consider a rate cut in September, with traders anticipating at least one more cut this year [5]

提醒：北京时间20:15，将公布欧洲央行利率决议（含主要再融资利率、存款便利利率、以及边际贷款 利率）。 ...

特朗普发帖称，由于鲍威尔拒绝降低利率，住房市场出现了滞后。家庭因为利率太高而受到伤害，甚至我们国 家本身也因此不得不支付比应有水平更高的利率。我们的利率本应比现在低三个百分点，这样一来，每年就能 为整个国家节省1万亿美元。鲍威尔这个固执的家伙就是不明白，从来没有，也永远不会明白。理事会应该采 取行动，但他们没有勇气这么做！ 行情回顾： 国际黄金周三（7月23日）冲回落大幅收跌，开盘价3426.49美元/盎司，最高价3438.88美元/盎司，最低价 3398.11美元/盎司，收盘价3398.16美元/盎司。 消息面： 美国6月成屋销售总数年化录得393万户，低于市场预期400万户，前值为403万户。 美国房产经纪协会NAR首席经济学家Lawrence Yun表示，"抵押贷款利率高企导致房屋销售仍停留在周期性低 点。如果平均抵押贷款利率下降到6%，我们的情景分析表明，将有额外的16万租房者成为首次购房者，现有 房主的销售活动也会增加。" 美国财长贝森特：今年可能会出现1到2次降息。几乎每周都与美联储主席鲍威尔共进早餐。在美联储主席提名 问题上，我们不急于求成。特朗普已经说了，他不会解雇鲍威尔。 贸易局势： 据了解 ...

Group 1 - Tesla is scheduled to release its earnings report after the US stock market closes on July 24, 2025 [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe will deliver a speech at 11:05 AM [1] - The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision at 8:15 PM [1] Group 2 - Various PMI data will be released, including Germany's manufacturing PMI at 3:30 PM and the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI at 4:00 PM [1][1] - The UK will also release its manufacturing and services PMI data at 4:30 PM [1] - The US will report initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 at 8:30 PM [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the silver market, with silver prices experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [1][2][3] - As of July 22, 2025, the silver ETF holdings increased to 15,158.37 tons, up by 152.58 tons from the previous day, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [2] - The price of silver closed at $39.29 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of $0.37 or 0.94%, with intraday highs reaching $39.32 and lows at $38.69 [1][4] Group 2 - Economic analysts express concerns regarding U.S. President Trump's tariff threats, which could significantly impact the Eurozone economy, leading to uncertainty in the European Central Bank's monetary policy decisions [2][3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance regarding interest rates until more data on inflation and labor market conditions are available, with inflation potentially rising towards 3% [3] - The silver market showed a strong upward movement after initially declining, indicating potential bullish trends for the upcoming trading sessions [4]

潘森宏观：特朗普关税威胁令欧洲央行利率决议陷入迷雾 金十数据7月22日讯，潘森宏观经济学家Claus Vistesen指出，美国总统特朗普的关税威胁难以辨别是真 实意图还是谈判筹码，这给欧洲央行的利率决议蒙上阴影。该行管委会本周料将维持基准利率在2.00% 不变。Vistesen表示，部分委员可能重点关注特朗普威胁对欧洲进口商品加征的30%关税——此举将重 创欧元区经济。他在致投资者的报告中写道，"但政策制定者面临的困境在于，他们无法确定特朗普是 否真打算实施此类关税，更不用说是否长期维持此关税。"这使得欧洲央行本周或将按兵不动，并转而 关注9月会议，届时欧盟和美国的贸易关系可能会更加明朗。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly decided to maintain the interest rate at 3.85%, contrary to market expectations of a reduction to 3.60% [1][2] Group 1: RBA Decision and Economic Indicators - The RBA stated it needs more time to assess inflation data before making any changes to the interest rate [1] - The RBA is waiting for more information to confirm that the inflation rate will sustainably reach 2.5% [1] - Australia's inflation rate in May was reported at 2.1%, the lowest level since October 2024, while the first quarter inflation rate was 2.4%, maintaining a four-year low [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the RBA's decision, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell by 0.24%, while the Australian dollar (AUD) rose by over 1% due to the unexpected decision [1] - The AUD/USD exchange rate has been forming a downward channel since early July, indicating significant resistance at the upper boundary of this channel [1] - There is a possibility for the AUD/USD to retrace towards the middle of the downward channel, suggesting that the market's initial reaction to the RBA's decision may have been hasty [2]