今年国家财政对消费品以旧换新补贴（下称"国补"）即将结束，明年是否继续备受关注。 多名接受第一财经采访的专家建议，明年继续实施"国补"政策，额度可以在今年3000亿元基础上有所提 高，比如提高至5000亿元，并继续优化资金投向领域，增加服务消费等，以进一步发挥财政资金带动消 费，带动产业转型升级、提振经济。 中诚信国际研究院院长袁海霞告诉第一财经，考虑到当前拉动消费仍有较强必要性，明年可以把支持消 费（即消费品以旧换新和设备更新）的超长期特别国债额度增加至8000亿元。但由于前期"国补"已一次 性透支部分消费品需求、配套政策不完善等，当前效果有所退坡，后续建议调整使用范围，从商品消费 转向服务消费，适当增加现金补贴、数字货币等形式的消费补贴，以及育儿、就业等民生补贴。 粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒认为，2024年下半年以来，消费品"国补"政策的持续推进，令相关商品消 费增速明显提高，但是随着政策力度边际递减叠加上一年的高基数效应，2025年下半年消费增速下行。 7-10月，家电音像零售额同比分别为28.7%、14.3%、3.3%和-14.6%，持续回落。对耐用消费品的短期刺 激，更多是消费节奏的前移，而非总量扩 ...

第一财经记者今年实地调研发现，"国补"政策不仅让老百姓直接受益，而且也带动了相关纳入"国补"范 围的产品销售，带动厂家业绩增长，并推动相关产业转型。 商务部数据显示，今年1—11月，消费品以旧换新带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元，惠及超3.6亿人次。 其中，汽车以旧换新超1120万辆，家电以旧换新超12844万台，手机等数码产品购新补贴超9015万件， 电动自行车以旧换新超1291万辆，家装厨卫"焕新"超1.2亿件。 消费者热情高涨之下，国补资金也被快速消耗。近期全国至少有20个地市陆续暂停或调整了汽车以旧换 新补贴申请。一些地方消费品以旧换新补贴券"秒光"。 那么2026年"国补"政策会继续吗？ 为大力提振消费，专家认为明年国补会继续 今年国家财政对消费品以旧换新补贴（下称"国补"）即将结束，明年是否继续备受关注。 多名接受第一财经采访的专家建议，明年继续实施"国补"政策，额度可以在今年3000亿元基础上有所提 高，比如提高至5000亿元，并继续优化资金投向领域，增加服务消费等，以进一步发挥财政资金带动消 费，带动产业转型升级、提振经济。 为了促进消费，中国在2024年发行了1500亿元超长期特别国债资金用 ...

近日，第四批国补资金690亿元已下达地方，国补实施机制持续完善，补贴发放方式持续优化，看好国 补政策对全年下游需求的催化作用。国补资金已全面下达，实施机制持续完善，资金监管与拨付效率提 升，看好政策对下游消费需求持续催化作用。 智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，国补资金已全面下达，看好政策对下游消费需求持续催 化作用。数据显示，家具类消费已呈现回暖态势，10月零售额同比增长9.6%，1-10月累计增长19.9%； 包装行业方面，下游需求整体平稳，原材料价格小幅波动，产业升级步伐加快；轻工消费领域，头部IP 持续推新，如泡泡玛特新品系列陆续上市，推动玩具板块保持高成长性。投资上建议关注受益国补政策 的家居龙头、包装资源整合企业及具备IP推新能力的玩具公司。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 地产数据仍然承压，看好国补回归对下游需求拉动作用 2025年1-10月，我国商品房累计销售面积达71982.00万平方米，同比-6.8%；累计销售额达69017.06亿 元，同比-9.6%。房屋新开工面积累计值达49061.39万平方米，同比-19.8%；房屋竣工面积累计值达 34861.00万平方米，同比-16.9%。 ...

海尔智家 20251120 摘要 海尔智家 10 月运营良好，国内外市场均实现中位数偏左增长，国内市 场表现出较强韧性，优于行业整体水平。 为应对 2025 年国补政策带来的高基数效应，海尔智家提升产品竞争力， 特别是空调和水产品表现突出，并通过数字化库存改革提高全流程效率。 公司通过产品结构补充和迭代升级应对国补退坡，同时综合考虑市场竞 争情况进行定价，避免恶性价格竞争，保障利润空间。 目前量贡献多于价贡献，公司采取一定程度的自补措施，但受到严格利 润考核限制，并通过调整费用结构进行管理，对全年利润指引影响不大。 公司预计 2026 年国家补贴政策将持续，但金额和范围可能变化，公司 将根据最悲观的行业预期制定目标，保持双位数增长目标不变。 10 月份出口方面，新兴市场表现优于发达国家市场。四季度盈利能力预 计保持稳定增长，并按照整体业绩指引进行拆解。 面对宏观经济不确定性，海尔智家将抓住确定性的增长机会，提升效率 和市场份额，改善边际利润，对 2026 年业绩规划充满信心。 Q&A 海尔智家在 2025 年第三季度的业绩表现如何？ 2025 年第三季度，尽管整个行业呈现双位数下降趋势，但海尔智家实现了双 位 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：韩星雨 邮箱：hanxingyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525050001 证券分析师：陆偲聪 邮箱：lusicong@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525050002 家电行业 2025Q3 基金重仓分析 重仓家电比例下降，家电上游及清洁电器获 推荐（维持） 增配 行业研究 家电 2025 年 11 月 18 日 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 80 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 20,320.65 | 1.67 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 18,146.56 | 1.85 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 5.4% | 8.0% | 9.9% | | 相对表现 | 3.4% | -9.4% | -4.7% | -11% -2% 8% 18% 24/11 25/01 25/04 25/06 25/09 25/11 2024-11-18~2025-11 ...

Core Insights - JD Group reported Q3 2025 revenue of 299.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, with net profit at 5.3 billion RMB, down from 11.7 billion RMB in the same period last year [1] - New business segments, including food delivery, saw a revenue increase of 214% year-on-year, while service revenue grew by 30.8%, reaching a historical high of 24.4% of total revenue [1] - CEO Xu Ran highlighted that the "national subsidy" policy has significantly stimulated consumer demand, particularly in the home appliance and computer categories, leading to a high base effect in industry growth [1] Business Strategy - During the "national subsidy" period, JD actively supported policy implementation, enhancing market share and supply chain capabilities in the home appliance and 3C categories, particularly through its self-operated model [2] - The continuous strengthening of these core advantages is seen as JD's differentiated competitive edge and the foundation for long-term business development [2] - JD aims to leverage its strengths in product, pricing, and service to reinforce user perception and continuously consolidate and enhance market share [2]

2025.11.13 本文字数：1435，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 |第一财经 陆涵之 许冉最后表示，无论是在国补期间，还是未来进入常态化发展，京东的团队都会持续发挥供应链能力， 加强与品牌共建，通过定制包销这些方式推动产业效率的提升，带来行业利润的提升，也为京东带来长 期利润率的改善。京东有信心在家电和3C品类持续保持市场份额的提升。京东将继续强化自身能力和 战略布局，与品牌商紧密合作，共同应对短期的行业挑战，助力行业实现长期的健康发展。 同时，京东的增长动力也会更加多元化，超市、健康时尚这些日百品类以及广告等服务收入都保持持续 地加速增长态势，成为京东整体增长的新动力。 国补此前为家电品类销售提供了强大驱动力。在2024年四季度财报电话会议上，许冉曾表示，"从去年 下半年开始，国家出台的各项消费提升政策，在我们看来的确取得了很积极的效果，也带动了消费信心 的逐步提升。" 此外，许冉回应了京东外卖业务的发展情况。 从增长看，三季度京东外卖的GMV环比取得了双位数增长。许冉表示在单量增长的同时，订单结构变 得更加健康，正餐的订单占比持续提升，占到总订单量的"绝大多数"。同时，三季度外卖客单价环比出 现提升。外 ...

京东第三季度财报发布后，国补、外卖等话题受到关注。 今年年底，用户将在北京看到更多的七鲜小厨。 国补此前为家电品类销售提供了强大驱动力。在2024年四季度财报电话会议上，许冉曾表示，"从去年 下半年开始，国家出台的各项消费提升政策，在我们看来的确取得了很积极的效果，也带动了消费信心 的逐步提升。" 此外，许冉回应了京东外卖业务的发展情况。 从增长看，三季度京东外卖的GMV环比取得了双位数增长。许冉表示在单量增长的同时，订单结构变 得更加健康，正餐的订单占比持续提升，占到总订单量的"绝大多数"。同时，三季度外卖客单价环比出 现提升。外卖业务在补贴效率方面正逐步提升，京东外卖针对不同地域用户群体以及订单类型正进行更 加精细化地运营。 许冉给出了几项具体举措。在产品创新方面，京东会与品牌方合作，推出更多定制化产品来推动产品的 升级和创新。在价格方面，京东会通过规模优势和供应链能力，带动成本和价格的不断优化，为用户提 供更具竞争力的价格。在服务方面，京东也会打造线上线下全渠道的购物体验，以及送装一体的差异化 服务，为用户提供更加优质的体验和更高效的模式，以巩固京东的市场份额。截至三季度，在全国已经 有超过20家京东M ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the strong economic performance of several cities during the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival, driven by national subsidy policies and e-commerce promotions, showcasing a dual effect of "industrial output" and "consumption upgrade" [1][21] Group 1: Economic Performance - During the Double Eleven period, cities leveraged their industrial strengths to achieve significant product exports, creating a vibrant regional economic landscape [2] - Handan, a key industrial base in North China, saw a 29% increase in total shipments and a 25% increase in total receipts, reflecting local industrial vitality and the dual effects of consumption upgrade and policy support [2] - Xuzhou established a robust agricultural economy with a "big in and big out" trade pattern, showcasing its core position in regional agriculture [7] Group 2: Specific City Highlights - Caoxian, known as the "Center of the Universe," ranked fifth in national pet food shipments during the Double Eleven period, exporting 1,271 tons, sufficient for over 500,000 cats for a month [4] - Taizhou, with its regional brand "Taijiu Fresh," exported 7,936 tons of fresh aquatic products and 10,540 tons of citrus fruits during the same period [5] - Xian's cargo categories included construction materials and metals, with a 44.56% increase in shipments, indicating its evolution into a modern, vibrant city embracing e-commerce [10] Group 3: Consumption Trends - The national subsidy policy significantly boosted the sales of green smart home appliances and furniture, with Handan's home appliance shipments increasing by 49% and furniture by 35% [16] - Xingtai's home appliance market also showed strong growth, with a 41% increase in shipments compared to the previous period, reflecting the rapid conversion of policy benefits into actual consumer power [17] Group 4: Logistics and Regional Connectivity - The logistics network among cities demonstrated tight economic connections, enhancing regional collaboration [20] - During the Double Eleven period, Xuzhou's internal logistics accounted for the highest proportion of shipments, highlighting the advantages of its geographical location [20] - The data from Heze indicated a busy logistics network, with nearly 200 million tons of goods shipped, showcasing its economic ties with surrounding cities [20] Group 5: Future Outlook - The data from the six cities during Double Eleven illustrates a robust economic landscape driven by policy empowerment, industrial growth, consumption increase, and smooth logistics [21] - The continuous application of digital technology in smart logistics is expected to further optimize industrial structures and enhance consumption quality, contributing to sustainable economic growth in China [21]

Core Insights - Arrow Home (001322) has reported significant improvements in gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025, with a gross margin of 28.51%, up 2.09 percentage points year-on-year, although net profit remains under pressure due to increased expense ratios [1][4] Group 1: Sales Strategy and Performance - The company focuses on retail channel development, implementing a store efficiency enhancement project to empower distributors and improve retail revenue [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 26.86%, an increase of 1.52 percentage points year-on-year, while net profit showed a slight increase due to a decline in revenue scale leading to higher expense ratios [1][4] - The company plans to replicate its retail management model across other channels to drive overall channel synergy and improve performance [2] Group 2: Future Initiatives - For Q4 2025, the company will continue to promote the store efficiency project and enhance product and marketing strategies to improve gross margin through optimized product sales structure [2] - The company is also focusing on collaboration with a mainstream smart home ecosystem platform to enhance sales of new products like smart bathroom appliances [2] Group 3: International Expansion - The company is pursuing an international strategy by establishing partnerships with local distributors and expanding its online sales channels through major overseas e-commerce platforms [3] - Despite a decline in revenue from the North American market due to international trade environment changes, the company has seen growth in other overseas markets [3] Group 4: Impact of National Subsidy Policies - National subsidy policies have positively influenced home furnishing consumption, and the company is leveraging these opportunities to optimize its sales structure [4] Group 5: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a main revenue of 4.472 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.45% year-on-year, while net profit was 32.548 million yuan, an increase of 1.74% [4] - The company’s debt ratio stands at 48.68%, with investment income of 7.6 million yuan and financial expenses of 32.4714 million yuan [4]