Group 1: Hot News - The 2026 national subsidy program is officially released, with the first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in funds for consumer goods trade - in. New subsidy objects include smart products, and home decoration and electric bicycles are removed. Car purchase subsidies remain at 2025 caps, and home appliance subsidy scope and rates are reduced [2] - From 2026, the VAT levy rate for individuals selling homes bought less than 2 years ago drops to 3%, and those bought 2 or more years ago are exempt. This will boost second - hand housing trading activity but increase supply [2] - Indonesia plans to cut production in 2026 to balance supply and demand, controlling nearly 70% of global nickel output [2] - In December 2025, the coking coal long - term agreement coal - steel linkage floating value drops 55 yuan/ton, a 3.6% decline [3] - Last week, domestic oil mills had high operating rates, and soybean meal inventory continued to accumulate. During the New Year's Day holiday, soybean crushing is expected to fall to about 1.8 million tons, but inventory may remain high at around 1 million tons [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on are urea, coking coal, Shanghai silver, PVC, and plastic [4] - Night - session performance shows different percentage changes for various commodity futures sectors, with precious metals at 32.77%, non - metallic building materials at 2.20%, etc. [4] Group 3: Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Different asset classes have various daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index has a 0.00% daily change, 1.97% monthly change, and 18.30% annual change [6] Group 5: Stock Market Risk Preference and Commodity Trends - The document shows the trends of major commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, etc. [8]

晨报 成材 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 31 日 逻辑：2026 年国补方案正式发布，国家发改委、财政部印发《关于 2026 年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，同时下达 首批 625 亿元资金支持消费品以旧换新。2026 年国补对象新增智能眼镜、 智能家居等智能产品，剔除家装、电动自行车两大类。购买新车按车价补 贴 12%或 10%，补贴上限仍延续 2025 年标准。财政部、税务总局发布公告， 自 2026 年起，个人将购买不足 2 年的住房对外销售的，增值税征收率从 此前的 5%下调至 3%，满两年及以上的免征增值税。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材：驱动不强 震荡运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号 ...

摩根士丹利发表研究报告指，2026年"国补"政策与2025年相比，在技术硬件产品方面几乎相同，但新增 了智能眼镜至补贴清单。对于消费电子产品，补贴由2025年的20%略微下降至2026年的15%，上限亦从 2000元人民币降至1500元。该行认为，新公布的政策对技术硬件行业是一个积极的催化剂，因为市场预 期补贴会减少，而非保持不变。对于消费电子产品，15%的补贴仍然利好小米明年的AIoT业务。 ...

Report Summary 1. New Policies and Their Impacts - The 2026 national subsidy program for consumer goods replacement is released, with 62.5 billion yuan in initial funds. The subsidy scope for home appliances is narrowed to 6 categories, and new smart products are added while home decoration and electric bicycles are removed. New car purchase subsidies remain at previous limits with 12% or 10% of the car price [2]. - Starting from 2026, the VAT rate for selling homes bought less than 2 years ago is reduced from 5% to 3%, and those bought 2 years or more are tax - free. This policy is expected to boost second - hand housing transactions but may increase supply and put pressure on housing prices [2]. 2. Market Performance A - share Market - The Shanghai Composite Index closed flat, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.49%, and the total trading volume of the two markets was 21423.26 billion yuan, an increase of 29.88 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The ChiNext Index rose 0.63%, and the STAR 50 Index rose 1.01% [3]. - The total A - share market capitalization is 108.82 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.96 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year. The cumulative trading volume this year is 418.14 trillion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 17278.49 billion yuan [17]. Global Markets - European stocks and Hong Kong stocks led the gains. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 1.74%, the FTSE MIB in Italy rose 1.14%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.86%. US, Japanese, South Korean, and Saudi Arabian stock indices led the decline, with the Saudi All - Share Index falling 1.03% [3]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield is 1.8537%, a change of - 0.8 BP. The average daily prices of R001 and R007 in the inter - bank market are 1.3782% and 2.062% respectively [3]. - The US dollar index closed at 98.2181, up 0.23%. The US dollar to offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.9923, with the offshore RMB appreciating 57 basis points [3][4]. 3. Sector Performance - The top - performing sectors are petrochemicals, automobiles, non - ferrous metals, and machinery, with gains of 2.63%, 1.35%, 1.31%, and 1.29% respectively. The under - performing sectors are commerce and retail, real estate, public utilities, and social services, with losses of 1.56%, 1.22%, 1.14%, and 1.13% respectively [3]. - The top three sectors in terms of daily net inflow of funds are household appliances, automobiles, and machinery. The top three sectors with net inflow of funds at the end of the day are national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, and non - banking finance [25]. - The top - performing themes are Yushu Robotics, reducers, and humanoid robots [25].

国补政策延续，有望支撑新能源汽车2026年的销量大盘。在企业层面，整治内卷式竞争延续，限制车企 无序降价，车企盈利也有望得到边际改善。 消费品以旧换新方面：继续实施汽车报废更新和汽车置换更新补贴，在保持汽车补贴上限不变的基础 上，将定额补贴调整为按车价比例进行补贴。 受汽车国补政策驱动，近期蔚来、理想、零跑、小鹏等汽车股表现活跃，带动恒生科技指数反攻，恒生 科技指数ETF(513180)成交显著放量。 国家发展改革委、财政部印发的《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》12月 30日对外发布，明确2026年"两新"政策的支持范围、补贴标准和工作要求。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 "Two New" policy aims to enhance equipment updates and promote the replacement of consumer goods, addressing key social issues and supporting economic development through targeted subsidies and optimized implementation mechanisms [1][2][7]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The 2026 "Two New" policy expands the support scope to include the installation of elevators in old residential areas, equipment updates in elderly care institutions, and updates for commercial facilities like shopping centers and supermarkets [2][4]. - The policy continues to support the replacement of old vehicles and household appliances, including cars, washing machines, refrigerators, and extends subsidies to digital and smart products such as smartphones and smart home devices [2][3]. Group 2: Subsidy Standards - The subsidy standards for equipment updates have been optimized, with a shift to differentiated subsidies based on the number of floors for old residential elevators, potentially easing financial burdens for high-rise buildings [4]. - For automotive subsidies, the policy adjusts from fixed amounts to a percentage of the vehicle price, with specific rates for new energy vehicles and fuel-efficient cars, ensuring better alignment with consumer needs [5][6]. Group 3: Implementation Mechanisms - The policy introduces an optimized project application and review process, lowering the investment threshold for project applications and increasing support for small and medium-sized enterprises [7]. - A unified subsidy standard will be implemented nationwide for various categories, addressing discrepancies in local subsidy standards and ensuring that more consumers benefit from the policy [7].

中信证券研报认为，消费电子方面，整体来看，2026年国补政策在2025年基础上新增智能眼镜产品，边 际上相关供应链公司受益。 ...

研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 31 日星期三 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周二国债期货主力合约开盘集体高开，全天横向窄幅波动，截至收盘 30 年期国债 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期货主力合约 TL2603 上涨 0.17%，10 年期 T2603 下跌 0.02%，5 年期 TF2603 下跌 0.01%，2 年期 TS2603 上涨 0.01%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周二央行开展了 3125 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 593 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期，当日合计净投放 2532 亿元。 | | ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略|点评报告 2025 年 12 月 31 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 晨会精选 ——观点全追踪（12 月第 11 期） [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： [分析师： Table_Author]吴棋滢 SAC 执证号：S0260519080003 SFC CE No. BQN213 021-38003588 wuqiying@gf.com.cn [联系人： Table_Contacts] 毕露露 bilulu@gf.com.cn 972918116公共联系人2025-12-31 00:44:13 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 3 投资策略|点评报告 广发投资策略研究小组 | 刘 | 晨 | 明 ：首席分析师，南开大学世界经济硕士，10 年策略研究经验。 | | --- | --- | --- | | 郑 | | 恺 ：首席分析师，华东师范大学金融学硕士，10 年策略研究经验。 | | 许 | 向 | 真 ：（上海）资深分析师，厦门大学硕士，8 年策略研究经验。 | | 倪 | | 赓 ：（上海）资深分析师，中山大学硕士，7 年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 "National Subsidy" policy has been announced, focusing on large-scale equipment updates and the replacement of consumer goods, with specific support for electric vehicles and smart products like smart glasses [1][6]. Group 1: Support Scope Optimization - The support scope for equipment updates will continue from 2025, adding new categories such as the installation of elevators in old residential areas and equipment updates in elderly care institutions [2][7]. - In the consumer goods replacement program, the focus will be on key consumer products with strong market impact, including continued subsidies for vehicle scrappage and replacement, as well as for six categories of home appliances [2][7]. - The subsidy for digital products will now include smart products, covering smartphones, tablets, smartwatches, smart glasses, and smart home products [2][7]. Group 2: Subsidy Standard Optimization - The subsidy for updating old residential elevators will shift from a fixed amount to a tiered system based on the number of floors [3][8]. - For scrapping old commercial vehicles, there will be a priority for replacing them with electric vehicles [3][8]. - The consumer goods replacement subsidy will maintain the upper limit for vehicle subsidies while adjusting the fixed subsidy to a percentage of the vehicle price; home appliance subsidies will be set at 15% of the price for energy-efficient products, with a maximum of 1,500 yuan per item [3][8]. Group 3: Implementation Mechanism Optimization - The project application and review processes will be streamlined to lower the investment threshold for applications, enhancing support for small and medium-sized enterprises [4][9]. - The funding distribution method will be optimized, and strict measures will be taken against fraudulent claims and price inflation before subsidies [4][9]. - A unified subsidy standard will be implemented nationwide for vehicle scrappage, replacement, and six categories of home appliances, with coordination among various government departments to ensure effective policy execution [4][9].