★ 宏观动态 ★ 香港金管局发布关于离岸人民币债券回购业务的优化安排 香港金融管理局今日公布有关离岸人民币债券回购业务的优化安排，以进一步便利"债券通"投资者参与离岸人 民币债券回购业务。措施包括：现时离岸人民币回购业务仅限于以人民币单币种结算。经本次优化后，可进一 步支持多币种外币结算，包括港元、美元和欧元，以便利参与机构按实际需要，以持有的在岸人民币债券持仓 进行多币种资金融通，丰富流动性管理工具，也有助于提升在岸债券的吸引力。优化措施将于2025年8月25日 正式启动。 国内首个低空新基建完整解决方案发布 据央视新闻，7月8日，由遥感卫星应用国家工程研究中心等单位主办的2025空天信息大会在安徽合肥举办，一 批聚焦商业航天、低空经济等未来产业的新技术新成果集中亮相，国内首个低空新基建完整解决方案也在会上 发布。本次大会发布了空天领域一系列创新技术成果与应用产品，涵盖卫星互联网、低空云、低空气象应用、 空天AI大模型等领域。中科星图发布了全国首个低空经济全域赋能平台，包括低空规划平台、护航低空智联 网平台、低空飞副平台、军地民协同平台及一网统飞平台等五个产品体系，提出了从低空规划、安全保障、协 同监管到运 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 风险提示： 原材料成本上涨快于预期；区域竞争加剧；大单品拓展低于预期。 公司在一季度"开门红"的基础上，二季度继续保持高质量发展态势。公司构建了"立体化降本增效"模型，助力 实现降本增效：一方面公司借助数字化工具跟踪大宗物料价格波动，在低位锁定采购价格，同时在保障供应安 全的前提下，灵活运用长短期采购策略以降低成本；另一方面通过标准化管理减少生产过程中的浪费及损耗， 使啤酒年吨成本降低。尽管公司生产成本已有改善，但在行业中仍处于中下游水平，劳动生产率、能耗成本等 仍有优化空间。 公司预计2025年行业原材料成本（如麦芽、玻瓶）仍处下行周期，燕京啤酒将持续强化管理以释放成本红利， 同时在人才方面推进梯队建设、优化考核激励机制并强 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of trade tensions, initiated by President Trump's unilateral tariff actions, has prompted a strong response from various countries, indicating a shift from unilateralism to a more diversified and autonomous trade strategy [1][8]. Group 1: Global Reactions - India has announced plans to impose retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., showcasing a strategic response to U.S. pressure on local manufacturing rules [3]. - The European Union, Japan, and South Korea have also expressed their intent to counteract U.S. tariffs, emphasizing the importance of protecting national interests and rejecting passive acceptance of imposed rules [4]. - The collective response from these nations indicates a growing trend of countries actively defending their economic interests against unilateral trade actions [4]. Group 2: China's Preparedness - China has been preparing for trade tensions for eight years, successfully reducing its trade dependency on the U.S. from over 20% to around 12% [6]. - The Chinese economy has shown resilience, with a GDP growth of 5.4% in Q1 2025, and a 6.3% increase in exports in May, reflecting the effectiveness of its economic reforms [6]. - China's manufacturing sector has transitioned from low-end production to high-tech and intelligent manufacturing, with significant advancements in various industries [7]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts - The trade conflict has accelerated the diversification strategies of emerging economies like India and China, pushing them towards a more balanced and multipolar global trade environment [8]. - The emphasis on upgrading traditional industries and investing in new technologies, such as AI and quantum technology, highlights China's proactive approach to global supply chain challenges [7].

2025 年 7 月 8 日 公司研究 利润维持快速增长，积极探索多元化业务 风险提示：原材料成本上涨快于预期；区域竞争加剧；大单品拓展低于预期。 公司盈利预测与估值简表 | 指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 14,213 | 14,667 | 15,588 | 16,415 | 17,096 | | 营业收入增长率 | 7.66% | 3.20% | 6.28% | 5.30% | 4.15% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 645 | 1,056 | 1,457 | 1,737 | 2,012 | | 归母净利润增长率 | 83.01% | 63.74% | 37.99% | 19.21% | 15.88% | | EPS（元） | 0.23 | 0.37 | 0.52 | 0.62 | 0.71 | | ROE（归属母公司)（摊薄） | 4.66% | 7.22% | 9.37% | 10.47% | 11.31% | | P/E | 56 | 3 ...

Group 1 - The A-share multi-financial concept strengthened in the afternoon, with Yong'an Futures and PetroChina Capital both hitting the daily limit up [1] - Other stocks such as COFCO Capital, Haide Shares, and Wukuang Capital also experienced gains [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority's CEO, Yu Weiwen, announced that a contract referencing the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) will be launched within months [1]

Group 1 - The South African presidency urges the government trade negotiation team and local businesses to accelerate diversification efforts [1] - South Africa will continue to promote a more balanced and mutually beneficial trade relationship with the United States through diplomatic efforts [1]

南都讯 记者张小玲 实习生何昕怡 在深圳建设国际消费中心城市的战略版图中，龙华区展现后起之秀的 商业爆发力。在消费服务业"半年考"中，今年1-4月，龙华街道服务业累计营业收入达88.90亿元，同比 大幅增长14.7%，增速稳居全区首位，成为全区唯一实现两位数增长的街道，占全区服务业营收比重达 23.8%。大浪街道后浪新天地上半年出租率高达 93%整体销售额约 12 亿元；民治街道以港澳客源开拓 新消费群体，观澜街道则以文体赛事激活商旅融合潜力等。龙华区各街道各出奇招，在全市 42 个区域 级活力商圈中，让仅占据 7 席的龙华区商业版图迸发出超常规发展动能。 龙华街道服务业营业收入达88.90亿元 增速稳居全区首位 "加快推进消费和服务业发展，挖掘高质量发展新潜力"是今年龙华区委党代会报告的头号任务，报告明 确提出要"全面建设国际消费中心城市主力区"。在全市的商业大棋中，作为行政区后起之秀的龙华区， 采用"商业+"及吸引港澳游客等诸多创新举措在商业发展中紧抓机遇后起直追。 在"深圳商业网点规划(2025-2035)"中，全市42个区域级活力商圈中，龙华区占据7个。被列为深圳重点 建设的全国级商圈的龙华超级商圈位 ...

2025 年 7 月 8 日 事件：燕京啤酒发布 2025 年半年度业绩预告，25H1 预计实现归母净利润 10.62-11.37 亿元，同比增长 40%-50%；预计实现扣非归母净利润为 9.26-10.00 亿元，同比增长 25%-35%。其中 25Q2 预计实现归母净利润 8.96-9.72 亿元， 同比增长 36.7%-48.3%；预计实现扣非归母净利润 7.73-8.47 亿元，同比增长 21.1%-32.7%。 25Q2 利润维持高增，降本增效持续推进。公司在一季度"开门红"的基础上， 二季度继续保持高质量发展态势。公司构建了"立体化降本增效"模型，助力实 现降本增效：一方面公司借助数字化工具跟踪大宗物料价格波动，在低位锁定采 购价格，同时在保障供应安全的前提下，灵活运用长短期采购策略以降低成本； 另一方面通过标准化管理减少生产过程中的浪费及损耗，使啤酒年吨成本降低。 尽管公司生产成本已有改善，但在行业中仍处于中下游水平，劳动生产率、能耗 成本等仍有优化空间。 公司预计 2025 年行业原材料成本（如麦芽、玻瓶）仍处下行周期，燕京啤酒将 持续强化管理以释放成本红利，同时在人才方面推进梯队建设、优化 ...

在第十一届大会上，证券时报携手中国投资协会股权和创业投资专业委员会、深圳市创业投资同业公会 牵头倡议，中关村、上海、广东、江苏、浙江、安徽、山东、湖北、四川、杭州等省(市)创投协会联合 发起成立了全国创投协会联盟。直至本届活动，联盟成员已增加到30个，覆盖了主要的经济大省、金融 强市。 依托联盟强大的信息和资源网络，联合证券时报作为主流财经媒体品牌影响、庞大新媒体矩阵优势，证 券时报创业投资大会得以汇聚行业的权威资源，搭建行业交流互通的平台，推动行业持续积极探索新模 式、新打法。 本届大会上，我们依托全国创投协会联盟在资本、产业、政策等领域的资源整合优势，正式成立创投智 库，智库成员来自行业内头部创投机构、第三方数据、法律、财会等服务机构、高校专家学者等，以智 慧驱动创投行业高质量发展，致力于打造成为行业创新变革的"思想引擎"与"决策参谋"。 盛夏七月，第十三届创业投资大会暨全国创投协会联盟走进光明科学城活动蓄势待发。在经济格局深刻 调整与科技创新浪潮奔涌的当下，这场行业盛会将聚焦创投领域全新发展机遇。 过去一年，创投行业政策利好频出："创投十七条"等顶层设计明确以资本驱动创新的国家战略；银行 AIC、保险资 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese entertainment industry is experiencing a divergence, with Damai Entertainment's stock price rising by 91% year-to-date, while Maoyan Entertainment's stock price has fallen by 10% [1][5]. Company Performance - Damai Entertainment has successfully diversified its business by shifting focus from movie ticketing to IP derivatives and offline entertainment activities, projecting a revenue growth of 33% to 6.7 billion RMB for FY2025 [4][13]. - In contrast, Maoyan Entertainment is heavily reliant on the domestic film market, expecting a revenue decline of 14% to 4.1 billion RMB for 2024 due to a 23% drop in movie box office revenue [4][15]. Strategic Differences - The divergence in stock performance is attributed to the fundamental differences in strategic direction between the two companies. Damai's transformation has allowed it to capture the benefits of consumer upgrades and post-pandemic entertainment demand, while Maoyan's reliance on the film market has left it vulnerable [6][15]. - Damai's revenue from movie-related activities is expected to constitute only 37% of its total revenue by FY2026, whereas Maoyan's movie-related revenue will account for over 80% [6][15]. Market Growth and Projections - The offline performance market in China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 81% from 2022 to 2024, with market revenue expected to reach 80 billion RMB in 2024 [7][8]. - Damai is estimated to achieve 2.1 billion RMB in event ticketing revenue in 2024, with expectations of further growth to 2.5 billion RMB and 3 billion RMB in FY2026 and FY2027, respectively [8][10]. Financial Outlook - Damai's adjusted EBITA is projected to grow by 61% to 809 million RMB for FY2025, with revenues expected to reach 8 billion RMB in FY2026 and 9.3 billion RMB in FY2027, exceeding market consensus by 4% and 7% [13][14]. - Conversely, Maoyan's adjusted EBITA is forecasted to plummet by 70% to 328 million RMB for 2024, with revenues expected to grow only 8% and 4% in FY2025 and FY2026, respectively, falling short of market consensus by 9% and 13% [15][18]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating for Damai with a target price of 1.2 HKD, while downgrading Maoyan to "neutral" with a target price of 6.8 HKD, reflecting cautious expectations for Maoyan's future performance [6][19].