上 市 公 司 食品饮料 2025 年 10 月 26 日 燕京啤酒 (000729) ——改革提效继续兑现 盈利能力保持升势 | 市场数据： | 2025 年 10 月 24 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 11.72 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 14.46/9.87 | | 市净率 | 2.1 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 1.62 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 29,413 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,950.31/13,289.18 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 5.62 | | 资产负债率% | 32.55 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 2,819/2,510 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 10-24 11-24 12-24 01-24 02-24 03-24 04-24 05-24 06-24 07-24 08-24 09-24 10-24 ...

2025 年 10 月 22 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】黄金"狂欢"未歇，铜价能否共舞？——《光大投资时钟》系列报告第二十 六篇 近期在中美贸易风波再起、鲍威尔透露未来结束缩表、美国地区银行爆雷等多重事件 发酵下，国内外资金加速流入黄金市场。短期内利多因素交易相对充分，金价涨势或 有所放缓，但长期看，本轮牛市行情远未结束。在金价加速上涨后，铜价有望迎来补 涨行情。一则，铜金比处在历史极低水平；二则，在全球能源转型、AI 革命的双轮驱 动下，铜的战略地位日益凸显，正进入一轮结构性紧缺周期。 【食饮】门店端积极调整，冻干业务带来新增量——煌上煌（002695.SZ）2025 年三 季报点评(增持) 煌上煌发布 2025 年三季报，公司 25Q3 单季度实现营业收入 3.94 亿元，同比增长 0.62%；归母净利润 0.24 亿元，同比增长 34.31%。预测 2025-2027 年归母净利润 预测至 1.11/1.53/1.77 亿元，对应 EPS 为 0.20/0.27/0.32 元，当前股价对应 P/E 分 别为 65/47/41 倍，公司产品力优秀，品牌力良好，维持"增持"评级。 ...

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Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 16.75 [1][10]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company has shown steady performance despite external pressures, with a focus on cost control and inventory management. The anticipated recovery in consumption and the completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" are expected to enhance profit elasticity [7][10]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 13.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.77 billion, up 37.4% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw revenue of RMB 4.87 billion, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 670 million, up 26.0% year-on-year [7][8]. - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters was 47.2%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, with the third quarter gross margin reaching 50.2% [9]. Sales and Market Dynamics - The company's beer sales volume increased by 1.4% year-on-year for the first three quarters, with a slower growth rate in the third quarter due to external factors such as weather and consumption pressures. However, the U8 product line continued to grow healthily [8][9]. Profitability and Cost Management - The report highlights that cost reductions and structural optimization have led to a continuous improvement in profit margins. The company has managed to reduce its sales and management expense ratios, contributing to a net profit margin of 13.2% for the first three quarters [9][10]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is RMB 0.56, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27% for net profit from 2025 to 2027, which is higher than the average of comparable companies [10][12].

Core Insights - A-share listed companies have significantly contributed to China's high-quality economic development, with over 1.8 trillion yuan in R&D investment and a market capitalization exceeding 100 trillion yuan [1] - The past five years have seen a transition from quantity expansion to quality improvement among listed companies, marking a critical leap in their development [1][2] R&D Investment - In 2024, China's total R&D investment is expected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan, a 48% increase from 2020, with listed companies contributing 1.88 trillion yuan, accounting for 51.96% of the national total [3] - The R&D intensity of listed companies has risen to 2.61%, up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous year, with 26 companies entering the "billion R&D club" [3] Innovation and Technology - Major technological achievements during the "14th Five-Year Plan" include advancements in space exploration, high-speed rail, and renewable energy, with listed companies playing a pivotal role in these innovations [2] - Companies like BeiGene have invested heavily in R&D, with over 47 billion yuan from 2021 to 2024, showcasing the potential of Chinese original research drugs on the global stage [3] Industry Transformation - Listed companies are integrating technological innovation with industrial innovation, exemplified by successful case studies in tire manufacturing and battery recycling [4] - The shift towards smart manufacturing has led to significant efficiency improvements, with over 230 exemplary smart factories reporting an average production efficiency increase of 22.3% [6][7] Green Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has seen the establishment of the world's largest renewable energy industry chain, with listed companies investing 1.3 trillion yuan in renewable projects [8] - Companies like Yanjing Beer are implementing green practices throughout their production lifecycle, contributing to a 16.9% reduction in carbon emissions per unit of revenue since 2020 [9] Global Expansion - A-share listed companies achieved 9.52 trillion yuan in overseas revenue in 2024, a 56.58% increase from 2020, indicating a qualitative shift in their global presence [10] - The export of innovative drugs has surged, with nearly 66 billion USD in foreign licensing agreements in the first half of 2025, reflecting the global recognition of China's R&D capabilities [10] Conclusion - The trajectory of A-share listed companies reflects the microcosm of China's economic high-quality development, transitioning from innovation-driven breakthroughs to global value elevation [11]

Group 1: Steel Industry - In July, the electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization rate reached 98.4%, marking a new high since 2012 [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions (2025 Edition)" on February 8, 2025, and reiterated the need to promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity on July 18, indicating potential recovery in steel sector profitability [5] - The stock price-to-book ratio (PB) of steel stocks is expected to recover alongside profitability [5] Group 2: Wanhuah Chemical (600309.SH) - For the first half of 2025, Wanhuah Chemical reported revenue of 90.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.123 billion yuan, down 25.10% [5] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 47.834 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.04%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.07% [5] Group 3: Guoguang Co., Ltd. (002749.SZ) - In the first half of 2025, Guoguang Co., Ltd. achieved revenue of 1.119 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.33%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 231 million yuan, up 6.05% [6] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 734 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.47% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 90.44% [6] Group 4: Aishuxin Co., Ltd. (600732.SH) - Aishuxin reported a revenue of 8.446 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 63.63%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -238 million yuan, indicating a narrowing loss [7] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.311 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.77%, and a net profit of 63 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [7] Group 5: Huangshanghuang (002695.SZ) - For the first half of 2025, Huangshanghuang reported revenue of 984 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.19%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 26.90% to 77 million yuan [8] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 538 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.72%, but net profit increased by 16.08% [8] Group 6: Yanjing Beer (000729.SZ) - Yanjing Beer reported revenue of 8.56 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.1 billion yuan, up 45.4% [8] - The company experienced a significant improvement in overall net profit margin due to effective sales expense management [8] Group 7: Haitai New Light (688677.SH) - In 2024, Haitai New Light reported revenue of 443 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.90%, with a net profit of 135 million yuan, down 7.11% [9] - In 2025, the company saw a 24.9% year-on-year increase in revenue in Q1, indicating a recovery as customer inventory levels decreased [9]

今日早参 2025 年 8 月 11 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：经济数据趋弱，联储表态转鸽 上周 7 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 明显回落，首申续申亦超预期上行，显示出美国经 济动能短期下行风险加大。特朗普新一轮对等关税正式生效，美日关税协议 出现争议，中美关税或继续延期 90 天。特朗普任命 Miran 为联储过渡理事， 联储官员表态多数偏鸽。全周来看，美债收益率上行，美股三大股指上涨， 美元走弱，大宗商品涨跌不一。本周关注美国 7 月 CPI（8 月 12 日)、7 月美 国零售（8 月 15 日），美俄阿拉斯加会谈（8 月 15 日）。 风险提示：美国就业数据放缓速度超预期，金融体系脆弱性爆发。 研报发布日期：2025-08-10 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 胡李鹏 SAC:S0570525010001 SFC:BWA860 陈玮 SAC:S0570524030003 SFC:BVH37 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting the long-term investment value of leading traditional consumer companies after adjustments [4][8]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the head enterprises in traditional consumption have adjusted and now possess long-term investment value from a dividend and yield perspective. It notes that the performance of food stocks with new consumption characteristics will diverge in the future, focusing on companies with genuine long-term competitiveness and improvement potential [4][8]. - In the liquor sector, it is anticipated that sales pressure will remain significant due to slow macro demand recovery and limited consumption scenarios. The report recommends key companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, while keeping an eye on Wuliangye, Jiansu Yanjia, and Yingjia Gongjiu [4][8]. - For the mass consumer goods sector, the report suggests that cost advantages will support profitability, and new products and channels will drive growth. It recommends leading companies in mature sectors like dairy and beer, and highlights growth opportunities in new retail formats and categories driven by consumer trends towards self-care, health, and convenience [4][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.84% increase last week, with liquor rising by 1.41%. However, it underperformed the broader market by 0.25 percentage points, ranking 26th among 31 sub-industries [7][43]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sectors - The report indicates that the food and beverage industry underperformed the Shenwan A index by 0.73 percentage points from July 7 to July 11, 2025. The sub-industries, including liquor, beer, and snacks, also showed varying degrees of underperformance [43][44]. 3. Key Company Updates - Yanjing Beer expects a net profit of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50% [12]. - Dongpeng Beverage anticipates a net profit of 2.31 to 2.45 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a growth of 33.5% to 41.6% [13]. - Youyou Foods projects a net profit of 105 to 112 million yuan for H1 2025, marking a growth of 37.91% to 47.57% [14]. 4. Price Trends and Cost Changes - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.04 yuan/kg, down 6.5% year-on-year. The report also notes price trends for various agricultural products, including pork and soybeans [24][39][40].

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic equity market continues to rise, with various fund indices achieving positive returns, particularly in the healthcare sector, which saw the highest net value increase among thematic funds [3] - Stock ETFs experienced a net outflow of 20.817 billion yuan, while Hong Kong stock ETFs saw a significant inflow of 7.821 billion yuan [3] Group 2: Financial Data Insights - In June, the expected increase in RMB loans is projected to be between 2.3 to 2.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 200 to 400 billion yuan [4] - Social financing is expected to remain stable, supported by steady credit and government bond issuance, leading to an anticipated increase in social financing growth rate [4] Group 3: Industry Developments - The Central Economic Committee emphasized the need to strengthen market mechanisms to eliminate inefficient production capacity and prevent "involution" in competition, which may optimize the photovoltaic materials industry [5] - The National Medical Products Administration announced measures to support the innovation and commercialization of high-end medical devices, which is expected to benefit leading companies with strong R&D capabilities and international strategies [6] Group 4: Company Performance - China Hongqiao is expected to see a 35% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, reaching approximately 12.36 billion yuan, supported by lower costs and stable aluminum prices [6] - Yanjing Beer anticipates a net profit of 1.062 to 1.137 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40% to 50%, driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance in the coming months [4][6]. Core Views - Yanjing Beer is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.062-1.137 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40%-50% [2]. - The company is actively exploring diversification in its business, particularly through the introduction of a "beer + beverage" marketing strategy, which includes the promotion of its "Beisite" soda [3]. - The report highlights the company's ongoing efforts in cost reduction and efficiency improvement, which are expected to enhance profitability [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, Yanjing Beer anticipates a net profit of 896-972 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.7%-48.3% [2]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.457 billion, 1.737 billion, and 2.012 billion yuan, respectively, with increases of 4%, 5%, and 5% [4]. Cost Management - Yanjing Beer is implementing a "multi-dimensional cost reduction and efficiency enhancement" model, utilizing digital tools to monitor raw material prices and optimize procurement strategies [2][3]. - The company aims to further improve labor productivity and energy costs, which still have room for optimization within the industry [2]. Market Expansion - The company is launching a "Hundred Cities Project" in 2025, focusing on 16 high-tier cities to enhance product visibility in premium markets [3]. - Yanjing Beer is also embracing the rise of instant retail channels to strengthen its market competitiveness [3]. Diversification Strategy - The introduction of the "beer + beverage" strategy aims to leverage synergies between beer and soda production, targeting restaurant channels to boost brand influence and market share [3]. - The company is also seeing positive market reception for its natto-related products, contributing to revenue growth [3].