Group 1: Steel Industry - In July, the electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization rate reached 98.4%, marking a new high since 2012 [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions (2025 Edition)" on February 8, 2025, and reiterated the need to promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity on July 18, indicating potential recovery in steel sector profitability [5] - The stock price-to-book ratio (PB) of steel stocks is expected to recover alongside profitability [5] Group 2: Wanhuah Chemical (600309.SH) - For the first half of 2025, Wanhuah Chemical reported revenue of 90.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.123 billion yuan, down 25.10% [5] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 47.834 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.04%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.07% [5] Group 3: Guoguang Co., Ltd. (002749.SZ) - In the first half of 2025, Guoguang Co., Ltd. achieved revenue of 1.119 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.33%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 231 million yuan, up 6.05% [6] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 734 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.47% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 90.44% [6] Group 4: Aishuxin Co., Ltd. (600732.SH) - Aishuxin reported a revenue of 8.446 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 63.63%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -238 million yuan, indicating a narrowing loss [7] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.311 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.77%, and a net profit of 63 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [7] Group 5: Huangshanghuang (002695.SZ) - For the first half of 2025, Huangshanghuang reported revenue of 984 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.19%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 26.90% to 77 million yuan [8] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 538 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.72%, but net profit increased by 16.08% [8] Group 6: Yanjing Beer (000729.SZ) - Yanjing Beer reported revenue of 8.56 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.1 billion yuan, up 45.4% [8] - The company experienced a significant improvement in overall net profit margin due to effective sales expense management [8] Group 7: Haitai New Light (688677.SH) - In 2024, Haitai New Light reported revenue of 443 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.90%, with a net profit of 135 million yuan, down 7.11% [9] - In 2025, the company saw a 24.9% year-on-year increase in revenue in Q1, indicating a recovery as customer inventory levels decreased [9]

今日早参 2025 年 8 月 11 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：经济数据趋弱，联储表态转鸽 上周 7 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 明显回落，首申续申亦超预期上行，显示出美国经 济动能短期下行风险加大。特朗普新一轮对等关税正式生效，美日关税协议 出现争议，中美关税或继续延期 90 天。特朗普任命 Miran 为联储过渡理事， 联储官员表态多数偏鸽。全周来看，美债收益率上行，美股三大股指上涨， 美元走弱，大宗商品涨跌不一。本周关注美国 7 月 CPI（8 月 12 日)、7 月美 国零售（8 月 15 日），美俄阿拉斯加会谈（8 月 15 日）。 风险提示：美国就业数据放缓速度超预期，金融体系脆弱性爆发。 研报发布日期：2025-08-10 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 胡李鹏 SAC:S0570525010001 SFC:BWA860 陈玮 SAC:S0570524030003 SFC:BVH37 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting the long-term investment value of leading traditional consumer companies after adjustments [4][8]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the head enterprises in traditional consumption have adjusted and now possess long-term investment value from a dividend and yield perspective. It notes that the performance of food stocks with new consumption characteristics will diverge in the future, focusing on companies with genuine long-term competitiveness and improvement potential [4][8]. - In the liquor sector, it is anticipated that sales pressure will remain significant due to slow macro demand recovery and limited consumption scenarios. The report recommends key companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, while keeping an eye on Wuliangye, Jiansu Yanjia, and Yingjia Gongjiu [4][8]. - For the mass consumer goods sector, the report suggests that cost advantages will support profitability, and new products and channels will drive growth. It recommends leading companies in mature sectors like dairy and beer, and highlights growth opportunities in new retail formats and categories driven by consumer trends towards self-care, health, and convenience [4][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.84% increase last week, with liquor rising by 1.41%. However, it underperformed the broader market by 0.25 percentage points, ranking 26th among 31 sub-industries [7][43]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sectors - The report indicates that the food and beverage industry underperformed the Shenwan A index by 0.73 percentage points from July 7 to July 11, 2025. The sub-industries, including liquor, beer, and snacks, also showed varying degrees of underperformance [43][44]. 3. Key Company Updates - Yanjing Beer expects a net profit of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50% [12]. - Dongpeng Beverage anticipates a net profit of 2.31 to 2.45 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a growth of 33.5% to 41.6% [13]. - Youyou Foods projects a net profit of 105 to 112 million yuan for H1 2025, marking a growth of 37.91% to 47.57% [14]. 4. Price Trends and Cost Changes - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.04 yuan/kg, down 6.5% year-on-year. The report also notes price trends for various agricultural products, including pork and soybeans [24][39][40].

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic equity market continues to rise, with various fund indices achieving positive returns, particularly in the healthcare sector, which saw the highest net value increase among thematic funds [3] - Stock ETFs experienced a net outflow of 20.817 billion yuan, while Hong Kong stock ETFs saw a significant inflow of 7.821 billion yuan [3] Group 2: Financial Data Insights - In June, the expected increase in RMB loans is projected to be between 2.3 to 2.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 200 to 400 billion yuan [4] - Social financing is expected to remain stable, supported by steady credit and government bond issuance, leading to an anticipated increase in social financing growth rate [4] Group 3: Industry Developments - The Central Economic Committee emphasized the need to strengthen market mechanisms to eliminate inefficient production capacity and prevent "involution" in competition, which may optimize the photovoltaic materials industry [5] - The National Medical Products Administration announced measures to support the innovation and commercialization of high-end medical devices, which is expected to benefit leading companies with strong R&D capabilities and international strategies [6] Group 4: Company Performance - China Hongqiao is expected to see a 35% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, reaching approximately 12.36 billion yuan, supported by lower costs and stable aluminum prices [6] - Yanjing Beer anticipates a net profit of 1.062 to 1.137 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40% to 50%, driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance in the coming months [4][6]. Core Views - Yanjing Beer is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.062-1.137 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40%-50% [2]. - The company is actively exploring diversification in its business, particularly through the introduction of a "beer + beverage" marketing strategy, which includes the promotion of its "Beisite" soda [3]. - The report highlights the company's ongoing efforts in cost reduction and efficiency improvement, which are expected to enhance profitability [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, Yanjing Beer anticipates a net profit of 896-972 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.7%-48.3% [2]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.457 billion, 1.737 billion, and 2.012 billion yuan, respectively, with increases of 4%, 5%, and 5% [4]. Cost Management - Yanjing Beer is implementing a "multi-dimensional cost reduction and efficiency enhancement" model, utilizing digital tools to monitor raw material prices and optimize procurement strategies [2][3]. - The company aims to further improve labor productivity and energy costs, which still have room for optimization within the industry [2]. Market Expansion - The company is launching a "Hundred Cities Project" in 2025, focusing on 16 high-tier cities to enhance product visibility in premium markets [3]. - Yanjing Beer is also embracing the rise of instant retail channels to strengthen its market competitiveness [3]. Diversification Strategy - The introduction of the "beer + beverage" strategy aims to leverage synergies between beer and soda production, targeting restaurant channels to boost brand influence and market share [3]. - The company is also seeing positive market reception for its natto-related products, contributing to revenue growth [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][34]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes focusing on domestic demand and highlights investment opportunities in the snack and beverage sectors, driven by strong consumer sentiment and evolving distribution channels [6][8]. - The report suggests that the high-end liquor segment remains robust, with companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye showing steady performance, while the snack industry is identified as a key growth area due to its ability to meet consumer demand for both emotional value and cost-effectiveness [6][8]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor index (CITIC) saw a cumulative decline of 1.69% this week, with leading companies like Tianyoude Liquor and Laobai Gan Liquor showing positive performance [6]. - Kweichow Moutai's Q1 2025 net profit increased by 5.8% year-on-year, reinforcing industry confidence [6][7]. - Wuliangye's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 679 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8% [7]. - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue of 86 billion yuan in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.4% [8]. Food Industry - The food index (CITIC) experienced a cumulative decline of 1.03% this week, with Youyou Food and Anji Food leading in gains [6]. - The snack and beverage sectors are highlighted as having strong growth potential, with new product launches and channel innovations driving market dynamics [6][9]. - Dongpeng Beverage is recommended due to its solid fundamentals and effective channel strategies, particularly as the summer beverage sales season approaches [6][9]. Key Company Insights - Yanjing Beer is projected to sell 4 million kiloliters in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [10]. - Yili Group's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 is reported at 890.39 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 8.59% [10]. - Haidilao's soy sauce revenue is expected to reach 137.58 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 8.87% [10]. Market Trends - The overall food and beverage industry saw a cumulative decline of 1.42% this week, with significant fluctuations in individual stock performances [11][12]. - The report notes that the snack industry is currently the strongest growth driver within the food and beverage sector, benefiting from changing consumer preferences and innovative distribution strategies [6][9].

Macro Insights - The US March CPI data was weaker than expected, with core CPI month-on-month dropping from 0.23% in February to 0.06%, and year-on-year at 2.8%, below the expected 3.0% [2] - The overall CPI month-on-month fell from 0.22% in February to -0.05%, with year-on-year CPI decreasing to 2.4%, both below expectations [2] - Despite the cooling inflation in March, market reactions were muted due to ongoing concerns about tariffs and their impacts, with little change in Fed rate cut expectations [2] Tariff Policy Analysis - On April 9, Trump announced a 90-day suspension of the reciprocal tariff plan, while imposing a 10% tariff on countries outside China, Mexico, and Canada, and increasing the reciprocal tariff on China to 145% [3] - Tariffs are expected to remain a frequently adjusted tool in Trump's negotiations, with potential for further increases against countries perceived as unfavorable [3] - The market may gradually become desensitized to tariff policy changes, with uncertainty becoming a new norm [3] Energy Price Impact - In March, China's CPI was -0.1% year-on-year, lower than the expected 0%, while PPI was -2.5%, also below expectations [4] - The decline in energy prices has contributed to the downward pressure on PPI, indicating a broader economic impact [4] Fixed Income Market Trends - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose sharply from 4.0% to around 4.5%, despite weakening economic fundamentals [5] - The bond market's significant adjustment occurred without drastic changes in macroeconomic data, raising investor concerns [6] Energy Sector Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission released a plan for upgrading coal power plants to enhance flexibility, indicating a market potential of 100-200 billion yuan annually [9] - Companies like Dongfang Electric are recommended due to their involvement in this transition [9] Aviation and Low-altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is seen as a key area for investment, with potential market space reaching trillions, driven by regulatory changes and advancements in eVTOL technology [10] Company-Specific Insights - Chongqing Bank is covered for the first time with a buy/hold rating, targeting a PB of 0.70/0.47, benefiting from the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle [12] - Anta Sports reported strong Q1 performance with retail growth across brands, maintaining a buy rating due to competitive advantages [13] - Yutong Heavy Industries showed a 77% increase in new energy vehicle sales, with a robust cash flow supporting its growth outlook [13] - Pinggao Electric is expected to see significant profit growth due to high voltage business expansion, with a buy rating maintained [17] - Wanfu Biology's international business led to a 10.9% revenue increase, with a buy rating supported by stable cash flow and margin improvements [29]