2025年，用电量达103682亿千瓦时，10万亿度电这一数字极为惊人。欧盟27国加上俄罗斯、日本、印度等用电量总和都比不上，即便用电大户美高层所在国 家，这一数字也是其两倍还多。 值得一提的是，该国电价在全球一百多个国家中排名101位，十分便宜。实际上，在不知不觉中，民众已享受诸多在多数国家难以想象的福利，像稳定的水 电供应、便捷的交通出行，还有蔬菜自由等。 过去，用电量飙升往往让人联想到工厂里机器轰鸣、钢花四溅的场景，第二产业确实是用电大头，占六成多。但今年情况有变化，工业用电虽仍在增长，势 头却已趋稳，而第三产业和居民居家生活用电的增量贡献了一半的增长，这反映出经济结构在悄然转变。 在第三产业中，充换电服务业用电量增速接近50%，满大街的充电桩成为"耗电大户"，新能源车普及直接改写了电力消费结构。信息技术服务业用电增速也 达两位数，当下火热的人工智能、大模型等，看似高科技，实则是"电老虎"，数据中心的服务器运行起来耗电量巨大，10万亿度电中有不少被这些无形的数 据流消耗。可以预见，未来谁掌握便宜稳定的电力，谁就在相关领域竞争中占据先机。 ...

文 任泽平 2026 年 1 月初，我和泽平宏观商学的企业家游学美国，逛了两天 CES ，人山人海，听了黄仁勋、苏姿丰、杨元庆的开幕式演讲，参访了特斯拉、英伟 达、谷歌、斯坦福以及美国创投机构。 如果用一个词来形容，就是震撼！ AI 正在快速改变世界，奇点时刻到来！ 整好赶上马斯克的三小时访谈刷屏： 我们正处于奇点之中，这是一场超音速海啸， 2026 年 AI 智力超越最聪明的人类个体。 巴菲特在 2025 年 5 月的访谈中提到：" AI 的危险不亚于核武器"， AI" 既有巨大的潜力造福人类，也有巨大的潜力造成危 害 " 。随后股神抛售了苹果， 大手笔买入谷歌。 在火爆的CES和硅谷，我看到了未来的AI世界。 一、 AI 的进步太快了，快速改变世界：她来了！她来了！她真的来了！ 在 CES 展，毫无疑问只有一个主题，就是 AI ， CES 展完全变成了 AI 展 ，太火爆了。最火爆的赛道都与 AI 有关，机器人、自动驾驶的展位人山人海。 我们看到机器人进步神速，翻跟斗，打拳击，端盘子，折纸， 360 度自动旋转身体。马斯克放出豪言， 3 年内 Optimus 机器人手术水平超越全球顶尖医 生。据内部见过 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the founder's motivation and focus in the success of AI companies, particularly in the context of advancing towards Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and the commercialization of technology [2][3][15]. Group 1: Founder Motivation and Focus - The motivation behind a founder's decision to pursue a project is likened to a seed, where different motivations can lead to different outcomes for AI companies [3]. - Founders who transcend personal needs to meet broader societal demands embody the concept of "Intelligence with Everyone," which is crucial for long-term success [3][15]. - The article highlights that many founders lose focus on company growth after achieving initial success, which can hinder potential [4]. Group 2: Characteristics of Exceptional Founders - Exceptional founders are characterized by their ability to maintain focus on the right things over the long term, which is described as wisdom [5]. - The article notes that during discussions, the focus remained on the path to AGI rather than competition or criticism, indicating a strong commitment to the vision [6]. - Founders who are deeply engaged in their interests and maintain a pure focus on their goals are portrayed as the most valuable [17][19]. Group 3: Structural Changes in Entrepreneurship - The new generation of founders in China is experiencing a structural change in their motivations and focus, moving beyond personal gain to define new directions and paradigms [15]. - These young entrepreneurs, shaped by rapid growth in China, are leading global innovation and are willing to take risks [15][16]. - The article describes these founders as individuals who are not necessarily recognized by conventional standards but are vibrant and full of life due to their beliefs [19][20].

AI Applications - The AI application sector is currently a hot topic, with companies like Yidian Tianxia and Liou Co. facing trading suspensions, indicating a desire for sustainable growth rather than speculative surges [2][3] - The market is expected to return to companies with solid performance, despite recent regulatory impacts on short-term market conditions [3] - 2023 is identified as a pivotal year for AI applications, with significant revenue growth anticipated for many companies by 2026, projecting increases of at least 30-50%, with some high-quality firms potentially doubling their revenues [4][5] Development Stages of AI Applications - The development of AI applications is described in three progressive stages: 1. From 2023 to mid-2024, models will transition from basic dialogue capabilities to advanced long-text processing and multimodal interactions, improving from a "primary school" to a "high school" level of intelligence [6] 2. By September 2024, OpenAI will launch the o1 series models, introducing the Agent concept, which will transform applications from mere interaction tools to revolutionary labor tools, enhancing penetration into both personal and B2B sectors [6] 3. From 2025 onwards, models will reach an "Olympic competition" level of intelligence, with applications evolving to include emotional and planning capabilities, integrating personal assistants with e-commerce and payment scenarios [6][7] Major Players in AI Applications - OpenAI's GPT-5 did not meet public expectations due to high initial hopes, focusing instead on reliability and practical applications for enterprise environments, marking a shift towards productization and commercialization [8] - Google's Gemini 3 was noted for its impressive benchmark performance but lacked a significant impact on everyday user experiences [8] - Alibaba's Qianwen showcased its integration with various platforms, achieving a closed-loop AI shopping function, indicating a trend towards practical applications in everyday life [9] OpenAI's Strategic Initiatives - OpenAI plans to test advertising in January 2026, aiming to diversify revenue streams ahead of a potential IPO and offset the high costs of AI system development [11] - The company is transitioning to a platform ecosystem, enhancing collaboration with third-party applications, and investing in computational infrastructure to support user growth [12] - OpenAI is also exploring partnerships in e-commerce and healthcare, aiming to create seamless shopping experiences and health management solutions [12] Power Sector Insights - The power sector remains stable, with expectations for growth in the gas turbine industry and power equipment, driven by overseas electricity shortages [14] - Significant demand for Heat Recovery Steam Generators (HRSG) is anticipated in regions like China and the Middle East, with price increases expected between 5-15% [15] - The North American market is projected to see a surge in gas turbine installations, further driving HRSG demand and price increases [15]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights various sectors including trendy toys, new tobacco, home furnishings, paper packaging, personal care, AI glasses, Xiaomi Group, pet food, and AI+3D printing, indicating a mixed outlook across these industries with some showing growth potential while others face challenges Trendy Toys - The collaboration between Honor and Pop Mart to launch the first trendy toy smartphone is expected to differentiate products in a competitive market, targeting younger consumers [8] - Despite a decline in overall online GMV for trendy toys, leading companies like Miniso and Bluku are experiencing significant growth, with Miniso's blind box category growing by 315% [10] New Tobacco - The cancellation of VAT export rebates for e-cigarettes is expected to pressure profits in the short term, but may benefit companies like Smoore in the long run as they can capture market share from smaller competitors [11] - The HNB market is anticipated to expand significantly with the upcoming launch of IQOS in the US [12] Home Furnishings - The domestic real estate market remains weak, with significant declines in new and second-hand home transactions [13] - Export figures show a decline for Chinese furniture, while Vietnam's furniture exports are growing, indicating a shift in regional competitiveness [14] Paper Packaging - The report notes fluctuations in paper prices, with a general decline in prices for various paper types, but anticipates a recovery in demand as packaging needs stabilize [15] - The overall retail growth in food, beverages, and daily necessities is expected to support the packaging sector's recovery [16] Personal Care and AI Glasses - The personal care sector shows mixed performance, with some brands experiencing growth while others decline [17] - Meta's plans to significantly increase the production capacity of AI glasses signal a positive outlook for the sector, potentially boosting demand across the supply chain [18] Xiaomi Group - Xiaomi continues to lead in the smartphone market, with expectations to integrate self-developed chips and AI models into their products by 2026 [19] - The company aims to enhance its brand positioning and profitability through technological advancements and strategic product launches [20] Pet Food - The pet food market is projected to grow, with a focus on new product introductions and market expansion strategies [23] - Recent data indicates a decline in GMV for pet food on major e-commerce platforms, highlighting competitive pressures [24] AI+3D Printing - The consumer-grade 3D printing market is expected to grow, driven by new product launches and community engagement initiatives [33] - Companies are focusing on lowering entry barriers and enhancing user experience to penetrate the market further [36]

Core Insights - The AI industry continues to gain momentum in 2026, with significant stock performance in the A-share market, particularly in AI application sectors [1] - Minimax has successfully launched on the Hong Kong stock market, achieving a market capitalization exceeding 100 billion [2] - Major tech companies are preparing for an AI application battle, with Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent all investing heavily in AI applications [4] Industry Trends - The rapid iteration of large models is evident, with 29 versions released by 11 tech companies in just 206 days, averaging a new version every 7.1 days [7][8] - User demand for AI applications is surging, with Doubao's monthly active users surpassing 200 million and Qianwen APP reaching 30 million in just 23 days [9] - The AI market in China is projected to grow to 993 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 35.5% from 2024 to 2030 [10] Investment and Financials - Major companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditures on AI, with Baidu planning 30 to 50 billion, Tencent 70 to 100 billion, and Alibaba potentially increasing its 380 billion investment due to high demand [11] - AI companies are accelerating their IPOs, with multiple firms, including Zhiyuan AI and Minimax, recently listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [12][14] - AI talent is in high demand, with salaries reaching up to one million and companies offering competitive packages to attract top talent [15] Challenges and Market Dynamics - Despite the growth, profitability remains a challenge, with Zhiyuan AI reporting losses exceeding 6.2 billion from 2022 to mid-2025, and Minimax over 8.7 billion from 2023 to Q3 2025 [18] - The competitive landscape remains unchanged as all major internet platforms integrate AI, leading to a potential homogenization of services [19][22] - The cost of using large models is decreasing rapidly, with significant price reductions observed in 2024, which is essential for the explosion of AI applications [27] Future Outlook - The AI industry is expected to experience an application explosion, with companies believing that revenue growth will eventually cover model costs [36] - The survival of companies in the AI sector will determine who defines the future, emphasizing the importance of endurance in the current challenging environment [37]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the remarkable success of Zhipu, a company that has achieved a market value of HKD 1,100 billion shortly after its IPO, showcasing the potential of technology transfer from universities, particularly Tsinghua University [2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Zhipu was established in 2019, leveraging technology from Tsinghua University's Knowledge Engineering Group, which dates back to 2006 with the development of the AMiner product [3]. - The company has completed at least 8 rounds of financing, raising over HKD 8.3 billion, and has attracted more than 50 institutional investors, resulting in a total of 87 shareholders [2][6]. - The initial shareholding structure included Huakong Technology, which held 11.99% of Zhipu's shares at the time of its founding [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - On its first day of trading, Zhipu's market value exceeded HKD 500 billion, and within a week, it surged to over HKD 1,100 billion, marking a 126% increase in stock price [6][7]. - The company has established strategic partnerships, including collaborations with Didi and Huawei, which have contributed to its stock price increase [6][7]. Group 3: Technology Transfer and Impact - Huakong Technology, established in 2014, serves as a platform for technology transfer from Tsinghua University, managing and holding equity from various projects [4][5]. - Tsinghua University has successfully incubated numerous projects, including Zhipu, and has established a comprehensive system for technology transfer, leading to significant financial returns [9][10]. - The university has completed approximately 450 technology transfer projects in the past three years, generating over HKD 1.5 billion in total [9].

在经历2025年股权融资规模暴增251%后，港股市场依然火热，目前仅排队IPO的公司已超过300家。 "总结港股市场2025年的表现可以用风生水起，那展望2026年就是涛声依旧"。1月15日，高盛亚洲（除 日本外）股票资本市场主管王亚军对券商中国记者等表示，年初至今异常繁忙。他还提到，国际资本已 大幅回流，目前头部国际长线资金（含美资、欧资及亚洲基金）对港股IPO项目的参与率已跃升到85% —90%。 目前，多数机构都研判港股股权融资活跃态势会持续。而对于IPO对港股流动性的影响，受访人士指 出，应该区分结构性问题与阶段性现象。好的IPO不仅不会抽走流动性，反而会吸引更多国际资本进 入。 从"风生水起"到"涛声依旧" "港股2025年的势头会持续下去。"王亚军表示，如果用风生水起来总结港股2025年的表现，那么展望 2026年可以用"涛声依旧"一词，虽然同比增速可能难以匹敌2025年，但IPO和再融资的规模都将维持在 较高水平。 这几乎也是市场的共识。尤其是对2026年港股的IPO市场，多家市场观察机构预判2026年募资规模会超 过3000亿港元。驱动力则主要来自港交所政策利好、中概股回流及AH两地上市热潮、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "Shanghai Pudong Software Park·Guiyang Park" marks a significant step in the collaboration between Shanghai and Guizhou in the digital economy sector, aiming to leverage Shanghai's brand and operational experience to activate Guizhou's data and computing power advantages [1] Group 1: Park Establishment and Objectives - The park was officially opened on January 16 and is located in the Guiyang National High-tech Zone, focusing on artificial intelligence, large models, data labeling, and computing power services [1] - It is a collaborative effort between the Guizhou Provincial Big Data Development Administration, Guiyang Municipal Government, and Shanghai Pudong Software Park Co., Ltd., designed to create a new highland for intelligent industrial development [1] Group 2: Strategic Importance - The park is positioned as an innovative platform integrating industry introduction, enterprise incubation, ecological cultivation, and professional services, combining resources from the Pudong Software Park with Guizhou's data industry foundation and policy environment [1] - The establishment of the park is seen as a crucial initiative to support the high-quality development of the digital economy in Guiyang and Guizhou, exploring new paths for replicable and promotable East-West industrial collaboration [1] Group 3: Government Support and Future Plans - The park will be included in the provincial smart industry park cultivation system, with policy support for industry aggregation and talent development, focusing on data labeling and artificial intelligence [1] - The goal is to accelerate the establishment of a provincial-level smart industry park and strive to create a national digital industry aggregation area [1]

哪怕是目前没有找到商业化路径，而且会带来算力成本，中国科技公司仍在争夺AI对话App这个入口 文｜《财经》研究员 吴俊宇 编辑 | 谢丽容 AI对话App正在成为科技公司竞相争夺的关键阵地。包括字节跳动、阿里、腾讯、蚂蚁集团都在投入资 源做大自己的产品。 1月15日，阿里旗下的千问App宣布打通淘宝、支付宝、淘宝闪购、飞猪、高德等阿里生态业务，可实 现点外卖、购物、订机票等功能。 阿里千问C端事业群总裁吴嘉在千问产品发布会上演示了如何使用千问App语音下单购买奶茶——千问 App迅速调用淘宝闪购下单并完成AI支付。随后，骑手就将奶茶送达现场。 截至2026年1月，千问C端（含千问App和网页等渠道，且去重之后）月活跃用户超过1亿。目前，千问 的月活跃用户规模仅次于豆包、DeepSeek。市场调研机构QuestMobile截至2025年9月数据显示，国内AI 对话产品的月活跃用户规模分别是：豆包1.72亿、DeepSeek 1.44亿、元宝0.33亿。 《财经》了解到，随着各家产品2025年四季度密集迭代，上述格局仍在快速变化。2025年12月，字节跳 动旗下的豆包App日活跃用户超过1亿。截至2026年1月， ...