1 敬请参阅文后的免责声明 期市有风险投资须谨慎 交易提示 交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 12 月 18 日星期四 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-18） | | | | 铁矿：铁矿石"供给宽松、需求低位、港口累库"的主线 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 不变：2026 年全球矿山新增 6400–6500 万吨，增速远超 | | | | | 粗钢；当下铁水环比再降、板材库存高压，钢厂检修预期 | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 升温，现实需求疲弱。钢材出口实施许可证管理制度，最 | | | | | 直接的影响就是买单出口被"限制"，对于明年钢材出口 | | | | | 的预期需要下调，同时关注是否匹配粗钢产量管控政策， | | | | | 对于原料而言是确定性的利空。策略上，短期因补库和宏 | | | | | 观情绪造成的反弹具备逢高介入空单的价值，突破前高紧 | | | | | 止损。 | | | 煤焦 | 反弹 | 煤焦：产能倒査、安监巡视作为现实催化，叠加反内卷政 | | | | | 策的预期，推高了 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The global silver market is experiencing a historic surge, with spot silver prices recently breaking through $65 and $66 per ounce, approaching $67 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of approximately 130%, which is double the increase in gold futures [1][2] - Factors contributing to this surge include supply-demand imbalance, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and increased capital inflow [1][2] - The Federal Reserve has room for further rate cuts of 50 to 100 basis points, as indicated by Governor Waller, due to a weakening job market and controlled inflation [1][5] Group 2: Key Commodities - **Silver**: The price of silver has reached new historical highs, supported by a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a $40 billion reserve management purchase, which improves market liquidity and boosts risk appetite [2][16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market for coking coal remains stable, with slight increases in construction and hot-rolled steel production. However, there is a downward trend in iron production, and the market is expected to stabilize due to seasonal demand [2][21] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass production is in a phase of inventory digestion, with a decrease in glass inventory and a slight increase in soda ash inventory. The market is closely monitoring potential changes in industry operations [3][15] Group 3: Financial Market Trends - The U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping by 1.16%. However, the A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend supported by policy and capital flow [8] - The bond market saw a general increase, with the 10-year treasury yield falling to 1.8425%, indicating a continued loose monetary policy environment [9][10] Group 4: International and Domestic News - Internationally, the Federal Reserve's policy direction indicates a likelihood of maintaining interest rates in January, with a 77% probability of no change and a 21% chance of a 25 basis point cut [5] - Domestically, the Ministry of Finance reported a slight increase in public budget revenue, with tax revenue growing by 1.8% year-on-year [6]

其一，美联储本月降息落地，但政策宽松预期持续发酵。美联储在本月宣布了本年度的第三次降息，将 联邦基金利率下调25个基点至3.50%-3.75%，尽管决议存在三票反对的内部分歧，但市场对2026年进一 步降息的预期升温。目前市场预计美联储2026年1月维持利率不变概率为76%，但有68%的概率指向 2026年两次及以上降息。低利率环境降低黄金持有成本，成为金价上涨核心引擎。此外，美联储启动购 买400亿美元短期国债的操作，则使得流动性改善的现实进一步强化了市场对美联储未来政策宽松的预 期。 其二，资金配置需求依然强劲，央行与ETF持续加仓。机构与央行配置需求形成推动金价上涨的合力： 黄金ETF持续净流入，反映机构长期看好金价前景；全球央行购金结构性趋势未改，2025年前三季度累 计购金634吨，中国央行连续12个月增持，印度、波兰等国也仍有增持空间。部分资金从主权债券与货 币市场转向贵金属，以对冲通胀与汇率波动风险。 其三，美元美债走弱助攻，地缘风险阶段性扰动。美元指数周线三连阴收于98.41附近，结构性弱势为 黄金提供支撑；10年期美债收益率回落至4%附近，削弱非生息资产黄金的持有机会成本。地缘层面， 俄乌和 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold has experienced a remarkable year, with prices up approximately 63%, marking its best performance since 1979 [1] Group 1: Price Drivers - Various developments from the White House have acted as bullish drivers for gold, contributing to its prominence in financial market discussions [2] - Central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases, buying around 1,000 tons annually since 2022, up from about 500 tons, which has supported prices due to their price inelastic purchasing habits [5] - The return of ETF investments has been notable, with over 500 tons purchased this year, aligning with the price rally, which is a shift from previous trends of outflows during price increases [4][3] Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts have set bullish targets for gold prices, with projections reaching as high as $4,900 by the end of next year and $5,000 by the end of 2026 [7][8] - A small percentage of U.S. investor portfolios currently holds gold, less than 0.2%, suggesting that even a minor increase in this allocation could significantly impact gold prices, potentially increasing them by 1.4% for each basis point increase [9] - Concerns about the debasement trade and the purchasing power of investments may drive retail investors to allocate more to gold, which could further support price increases [10]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market continues to show strong performance, driven by various factors including expectations of monetary policy changes from the Federal Reserve and heightened geopolitical uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have recently broken through a two-week consolidation range, returning above $4,300 per ounce, with a notable increase in market support [2]. - Analysts expect gold prices to continue rising, with potential upward movement influenced by a weaker dollar and increased market risk aversion [2]. - Upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data are anticipated to significantly impact economic outlook and precious metals market trends, with expectations of 40,000 new jobs and a stable unemployment rate of 4.4% [2][3]. Group 2: Platinum and Palladium Market Insights - Platinum and palladium prices have surged, with platinum futures rising by 7% and palladium by 4.73%, supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions and supply constraints [1][4]. - The supply side remains tight, with high leasing rates for platinum and palladium indicating ongoing supply pressure [4]. - The rise in silver prices has also positively influenced platinum and palladium, as increased demand for industrial metals drives investor interest [4]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Precious Metals - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, supported by factors such as weakened dollar credibility and continued central bank gold purchases [4]. - Analysts predict that gold prices will experience a gradual upward trend, despite short-term fluctuations [4].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices continue to show strong performance, with London spot gold surpassing $4,300 per ounce, supported by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - As of December 15, 2023, London gold spot prices increased by 0.93%, reaching $4,339.95 per ounce [2]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices will reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, while UBS maintains a target of $4,500 per ounce for June 2026, and Bank of America has raised its target to $5,000 per ounce for the same year [4]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Global gold ETFs have seen significant inflows, with November alone adding $5.2 billion, marking the sixth consecutive month of inflows, despite a decrease compared to previous months [4]. - As of the end of November, the total size of gold ETFs reached $530 billion, reflecting a 5.4% increase for the month [4]. Group 3: Influencing Factors - Key factors influencing gold prices include the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut of 25 basis points, a decline in U.S. inflation data, and strong bullish sentiment among institutional investors, as evidenced by an increase in SPDR Gold ETF holdings [5]. - UBS views gold as an effective risk hedging tool, especially as the dollar weakens and geopolitical uncertainties persist, alongside strong central bank gold purchasing data and investment demand [5].

Well, in contrast to the gold market, the silver market is obviously much smaller. Um, but silver has also had an extraordinary run, pushing through $60 an ounce for the first time uh last week. A historic rally.Right now, it's trading around 63 $64. Um, what do you what is your take on what's driven silver higher. >> Yeah, in terms of traded value, it's about 15% of the size or the value of of the gold market.you're on a sort of weekly trade, but it's it's it's actually grown into a very very significant i ...

黄金价格逼近历史新高！单日狂飙200美元，央行购金量创十年新高 一、价格突破与市场震荡：30年一遇的"黄金风暴" 2025年12月12日，国际金价以雷霆之势突破4300美元/盎司，日内涨幅达1.17%，创下自1979年以来的最 佳年度表现。国内金饰价格同步飙升至1337-1339元/克，深圳水贝等黄金交易市场的单日调价次数高达 3-5次，部分商户甚至因价格波动暂停回购业务。更令人震惊的是，纽约期金单日暴涨2%，白银价格同 步刷新历史高点至64.31美元/盎司，贵金属市场呈现"金银共舞"的狂热局面。 这场行情的剧烈程度堪比1980年黄金泡沫顶峰时期。国际清算银行（BIS）数据显示，2025年黄金年内 涨幅近60%，白银涨幅近100%，两者价格相关性飙升至0.22（历史均值0.02），呈现罕见的同步暴涨特 征。市场交易数据显示，黄金ETF价格持续高于资产净值（NAV），杠杆交易账户占比突破35%，投机 氛围浓厚。 二、驱动因素三重奏：从货币政策到地缘博弈 1. 美联储降息引爆流动性革命 美联储年内第三次降息至3.50%-3.75%，鲍威尔释放"短期加息概率极低"的鸽派信号，直接压低持有黄 金的机会成本。追踪美元兑 ...

尽管10月市场剧烈波动，但全球央行购金热情不减，为金价提供了坚实支撑，而新兴的"代币化黄金"尚未成为市场的主要驱动力。 根据追风交易台消息，高盛于12月12日发布的最新报告显示，其"即时预测"（nowcast）模型估算，全球央行在10月份净买入了49吨黄金。这一数 字远高于2022年之前17吨的月均水平，显示出官方部门强劲且持续的需求。 其中，其中卡塔尔10月购买20吨和中国购买15吨。高盛分析师Lina Thomas和Daan Struyven认为，央行在金价高波动时期依然坚挺的购买行为，表 明其决策并非高度价格敏感，而是出于对冲地缘政治和金融风险的长期战略考量。 基于这一强劲的官方需求，叠加对美联储未来政策转向宽松的预期，高盛维持其对金价的乐观预测，预计到2026年底金价将升至4900美元/盎司。 该行同时指出，私人投资者需求的增长将是金价的另一大潜在上行动力。 央行购金：对冲风险的"多年趋势" 高盛在报告中强调，其继续将央行大规模增持黄金视为一个"多年趋势"。报告数据显示，10月份49吨的净购买量，以及66吨的12个月移动平均购 买量，均显著高于2022年以前17吨的月度平均水平。 高盛分析师认为，这一 ...

来源：陕西都市快报 当地时间12月12日，国际现货黄金价格持续向上，突破4350美元/盎司，距离历史新高仅一步之遥。虽然随后短线下挫，但仍引发市场对金价的再次侧 目。 截至收盘，纽商所交投最活跃的明年2月黄金期价上涨0.35%。 与此同时，品牌金饰价格也节节攀升。12月13日，老庙黄金的金饰价格涨至1352元/克，周生生涨至1351元/克，均突破1350元/克的高位。 | 割サキ /hnu(snn(ann | ♀ 分店位置 | 金价资讯 | 陆。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中国大陆金价 ( 每克 ) | MINT | PROMESSA | 周生生 | | 卖出 | | | | | 足金饰品 | ¥1351 | | | | 950铂金饰品 | ¥704 | | | | 末１１８日 | 生生金宝 | | | | 金 价 资 讯 | | | | | 最後更新时间: 2025-12-13 11:06:03 | | | | | 最後更新时间: 2025-12-13 11:06:45 | | | | | 名称 | 价格(人民币/克) | | --- | --- | | 足金饰品 | 13 ...