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海外利率周报20251221：日本加息有什么影响？-20251221

Guolian Minsheng Securities· 2025-12-21 11:33

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - This week, the entire curve of US Treasury yields declined slightly by 3 - 5bp. Although inflation and employment data are favorable for the bond market, the decline in interest rates is not significant. This is because the market doubts the validity of the data from October and November, and the expected change in the interest - rate cut path is small [2][11]. - The Bank of Japan raised the policy rate to 0.75%, but the yen continued to weaken. The "limited hawkish" stance of the Bank of Japan is due to the need to balance multiple pressures. As the yen approaches the "intervention level", the actions of the Japanese Ministry of Finance may affect the pricing of US Treasuries and the stock market [3][12]. - The US employment situation shows that the labor market has not changed significantly, with employers reluctant to increase recruitment significantly but not initiating large - scale layoffs. The economic growth momentum is weakening, and inflation is showing a downward trend [21][22][24]. - In the asset market, German medium - and long - term bonds and Japanese bonds rose; the global equity market was highly differentiated; black - series and chemical commodities strengthened, while grains and digital assets were under pressure; most global foreign exchange markets declined, with only the Russian ruble supported [26][27][28][29]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 US Treasury Yield Review - **Yield Changes**: From December 12 to December 19, 2025, the yields of 1 - month, 1 - year, 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year US Treasuries decreased by 5bp, 3bp, 4bp, 5bp, 3bp, and 3bp respectively, reaching 3.71%, 3.51%, 3.48%, 3.70%, 4.16%, and 4.82% [2][11]. - **Reasons for the Limited Decline**: The market doubts the validity of the data from October and November, and the expected change in the interest - rate cut path is small [2][11]. - **Japanese Interest - Rate Hike Impact**: The Bank of Japan raised the policy rate to 0.75%, but the yen continued to weaken. As the yen approaches the "intervention level", the actions of the Japanese Ministry of Finance may affect the pricing of US Treasuries and the stock market [3][12]. - **Auction Results**: On December 17, the auction of 20 - year US Treasuries was robust, with a winning bid rate of 4.798%, a bid - to - cover ratio of 2.67 times (higher than the previous value of 2.41 times), and a tail spread of - 2.500 (higher than the previous value of - 0.200) [17]. 3.2 US Macroeconomic Indicator Review - **Employment**: In November, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 64,000, higher than the forecast of 50,000 and the previous value of - 105,000. The unemployment rate was 4.6%, higher than the forecast of 4.5% and the previous value of 4.4%. The average hourly wage growth rate was 0.1% month - on - month, lower than the forecast of 0.3% and the previous value of 0.4%. The number of initial jobless claims in the week of December 13 decreased to 224,000 [21]. - **Business Index**: In December, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was 51.8, lower than the forecast of 52.0 and the previous value of 52.2; the service PMI was 52.9, lower than the forecast of 54.0 and the previous value of 54.1, hitting a six - month low. The US Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was - 10.2, lower than the forecast of 2.5 and the previous value of - 1.7 [4][22][24]. - **Inflation**: In November, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the previous value of 3.0% and the forecast of 3.1%. Some officials believe that there is a large space for the Fed to cut interest rates [4][22][24]. - **Housing Market**: In November, the annualized total of existing home sales in the US was 4.13 million units, with a median price of $409,200, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The housing market showed a significant differentiation, with low - priced housing sales under pressure and the high - end market relatively strong [24]. 3.3 Major Asset Review - **Bonds**: German medium - and long - term bonds and Japanese bonds rose. The yields of German 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, and 30 - year bonds increased by 1bp, 3bp, 4bp, and 6bp respectively. The yields of Japanese 1 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, and 20 - year bonds increased by 1.4bp, 0.7bp, 1.6bp, 2.4bp, and 1.6bp respectively [26]. - **Equities**: The global market was highly differentiated. The Vietnam VN30, UK FTSE 100, and France CAC40 rose by 3.55%, 2.57%, and 1.03% respectively, while the South Korea Composite Index, Japan's Nikkei 225, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell by 3.52%, 2.61%, and 1.10% respectively [27]. - **Commodities**: Black - series and chemical commodities strengthened, while grains and digital assets were under pressure. The coke index, coking coal index, and soda ash index rose by 9.82%, 9.11%, and 4.53% respectively, while CBOT wheat, CBOT soybeans, and Bitcoin fell by 3.68%, 2.55%, and 2.37% respectively [28]. - **Foreign Exchange**: Most global foreign exchange markets declined, with only the Russian ruble supported. The ruble rose by 0.35%, while the South Korean won, euro, and British pound fell by 0.62%, 0.37%, and 0.33% respectively [29]. 3.4 Market Tracking The report provides multiple charts, including the latest target - rate expectations of FED WATCH, the simulated trends of the US dollar, US stocks, US Treasuries, gold, and Bitcoin this week, the auction panel of US Treasuries, and the yield curves of US Treasuries, Japanese bonds, and German bonds, etc., to track the market situation [13][14][17].