回顾:央行昨日开展了3820亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率1.40%,投标 量3820亿元,中标量3820亿元。当日1350亿元逆回购到期,据此计算,单 日净投放2470亿元。 热评:本周央行公开市场将有9460亿元逆回购到期,其中周二至下周五分 别到期3570亿元、1570亿元、1545亿元、1425亿元。5月20日贷款市场报价 利率(LPR)为:1年期LPR为3.0%(上次为3.1%),5年期以上LPR为3.5%(上次为 3.6%)。与此同时,5月20日早间,国有大行和部分股份行陆续更新了存款 挂牌利率,这也是去年10月之后,存款利率时隔7个月再次下调,也是大行 自2022年9月以来第七次主动下调。此次调整后,国有大行活期存款利率跌 破0.1%,定期存款中1年期利率跌破1%。 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | | | 动(%) | | 沪深300 | 3860 | -0.57 | IF当月 | 3831 | -0.4 | | 上证50 | 2699 | -0. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent reduction in deposit interest rates has two characteristics: a relatively large adjustment range and fast follow - up by banks, indicating significant net interest margin pressure on banks. For banks, on the asset side, the requirement for interest rate levels will decrease, and the motivation to allocate bonds will increase due to weak credit issuance and improved bond cost - effectiveness. However, on the liability side, the scale of funds flowing out of the balance sheet may be large, and the pressure on the liability side may increase, making the scale of bond allocation uncertain. For generalized asset management, the demand for 1 - 3Y credit bonds will increase, and the spread of 3Y credit bonds will narrow about 3 - 4 weeks after the interest rate cut, with the outflow process lasting 2 - 3 months. For investors, credit bonds are a more certain choice, and for interest - rate bonds, new marginal changes need to be observed. Considering the possibility of further interest rate cuts this year, investors can gradually increase their allocation of 10Y Treasury bonds when the yield is above 1.7% [2][13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Deposit Interest Rate Cut and Its Impact on the Bond Market - **Characteristics of the Current Cut**: The adjustment range is large. With the 1Y and 5Y LPR both cut by 10BP, the deposit interest rate cuts of large - scale banks are 15BP and 25BP respectively, higher than previous levels. Also, banks have followed up quickly. As of May 22, 2025, 12 joint - stock banks have completed the adjustment, and some city and rural commercial banks are following suit, reflecting the large net interest margin pressure on banks [13]. - **Impact on Institutional Behavior**: - **Banks**: On the asset side, after the deposit interest rate cut, the average liability cost of the six major banks is expected to decrease by 10.3BP. With a large number of fixed - term deposits maturing in the next two years, the liability - side cost pressure will further ease, and the requirement for asset - side yields will decrease. Also, weak credit issuance and the improved cost - effectiveness of bonds increase the motivation to allocate bonds. On the liability side, the large - scale deposit interest rate adjustment may lead to a significant outflow of funds, and the liability - side pressure may increase, making the scale of bond allocation uncertain [17][21][25]. - **Generalized Asset Management**: Referring to previous interest rate cuts, after funds flow out of the balance sheet, the demand for 1 - 3Y credit bonds increases, usually leading to a narrowing of the 3Y credit bond spread. The spread starts to narrow about 3 - 4 weeks after the interest rate cut, and the outflow process lasts 2 - 3 months [26]. - **Investment Opportunities in the Bond Market**: Credit bonds are a more certain choice for investors, supported by coupon advantages and increased demand from funds flowing out of the balance sheet. Interest - rate bonds are in an oscillating upward phase and need new marginal changes to determine the direction. Considering the possibility of further interest rate cuts this year, investors can gradually increase their allocation of 10Y Treasury bonds when the yield is above 1.7% [30]. 3.2 Institutional Bond Custody No specific content provided in the given text. 3.3 Institutional Fund Tracking - **Fund Prices**: In the week of May 19 - 23, 2025, liquidity slightly eased. R007 closed at 1.63%, unchanged from the previous week, DR007 closed at 1.59%, down 5BP from the previous week, and the 6 - month national - share transfer discount rate closed at 1.14%, down 4BP from the previous week [40]. - **Financing Situation**: The balance of inter - bank pledged reverse repurchase this week was 108,111.6 billion yuan, up 0.2% from the previous week. For generalized asset management, the net financing of fund companies and bank wealth management products was - 848 million yuan and - 5.326 billion yuan respectively [43]. 3.4 Quantitative Tracking of Institutional Behavior - **Fund Duration**: This week, the measured durations of high - performance interest - rate bond funds and general interest - rate bond funds in the market were 6.53 and 5.09 respectively, increasing by 0.18 and 0.25 compared to the previous week [48]. - **Asset Scarcity Index**: The "asset scarcity" index slightly increased, with a smaller index value indicating looser liquidity, lower credit bond supply, and higher credit bond demand [58]. - **Institutional Behavior Trading Signals**: Trading signals for secondary capital bonds, ultra - long - term Treasury bonds, and 10Y local bonds are provided, with gray areas indicating bullish signals [61][65][67]. - **Institutional Leverage**: The overall market leverage ratio remained unchanged at 106.8% this week. Among generalized asset management institutions, the leverage ratio of insurance institutions was 113.3%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous week; the fund leverage ratio was 101.9%, down 0.4 percentage points; and the securities firm leverage ratio was 184.9%, down 2.6 percentage points [68]. - **Bank Self - investment Comparison Table**: A comparison table for bank self - investment is provided, showing the nominal yields, tax costs, capital occupation costs, and post - tax and risk - adjusted returns of various assets such as general loans, 10Y Treasury bonds, and 10Y local bonds [73]. 3.5 Asset Management Product Data Tracking - **Funds**: No specific analysis content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [75]. - **Bank Wealth Management**: The overall market wealth management product break - even rate slightly decreased this week, with the break - even rate of all products at 2.0% [78]. 3.6 Treasury Futures Trend Tracking No specific analysis content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [83]. 3.7 Generalized Asset Management Landscape No specific analysis content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [88].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Report's Core View - This time the deposit rate cut is the largest since 2022, and its impact on the bond market may not be fully priced. The main impact may be on financial disintermediation, which is beneficial to credit bonds. Although short - term frictions and government bond supply shocks increase the pressure on certificate of deposit (CD) supply, CD yields are expected to gradually decline. The bond market is expected to gradually recover after short - term fluctuations [2][6][56] Summary by Directory I. This time the deposit rate cut is the largest since 2022 - Since 2021, China's deposit rate formation mechanism has been adjusted multiple times. In 2021, the deposit rate ceiling was changed from a multiple to a point - based system; in 2022, banks were required to adjust deposit rates with reference to the 10 - year Treasury yield and 1 - year LPR; in 2023, the central bank tightened its constraints on bank deposit rates [7][8][11] - The decline in deposit rates is often greater than that of policy rates. Due to the narrowing of bank spreads, the central bank cut interest rates in May 2025, pushing the LPR down by 10BP, followed by a new round of deposit rate cuts. This time, the deposit rate ceiling was cut by the largest margin since 2022, reflecting the central bank's goal of protecting bank spreads and promoting a decline in social financing costs [15][23][26] II. The impact of deposit rate adjustment on bank liabilities requires the cooperation of liquidity environment and asset - side shocks - The decline in deposit rates mainly causes structural impacts on bank liabilities, such as funds flowing from some banks to others or being used to buy non - bank products. However, this time, all types of banks cut rates simultaneously, so the impact on each bank is relatively smooth, and the main impact may be increased financial disintermediation [28] - For the impact on the entire banking system to expand, two conditions are generally required: tight liquidity and asset - side shocks. For example, in the second half of 2020, the reduction of structured deposits, combined with tight liquidity and increased supply of credit and government bonds, led to a significant increase in CD rates; in April 2024, after the ban on manual interest subsidies, large - bank deposits decreased, but the stable liquidity environment limited the increase in CD rates [29][30][32] III. The core contradiction of this deposit rate cut may still be financial disintermediation, and its impact has not been fully priced - From the perspective of the money market, although there were fluctuations after the RRR cut and interest rate cut, they can be attributed to exogenous factors such as government bond net financing and tax - period disturbances. The central bank's short - term target DR007 center may have dropped to the 1.5% - 1.6% range, and the spread between the money market rate and the policy rate has been narrowing since March, with the possibility of further narrowing in June [33][36] - From the asset side, the decline in bank credit in April may be due to weakening credit demand after the concentrated lending in the first quarter, rather than the replacement of credit by special refinancing bonds. There is still about 1.3 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds to be used after May, which may restrict new credit. The supply of government bonds in May increased, which, combined with the frictions caused by the deposit rate cut, may be the reason for the recent fluctuations in CD rates. However, the impact of government bond supply is expected to weaken marginally in the future [45][49][56]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - With the market's volatility from tariff impacts and policy support waning, and the current rebound reaching the upper limit of the range, in the absence of incremental catalysts, the stock index may enter a short - term shock consolidation phase. It is advisable to cautiously observe the stock index and pay attention to macro incremental signals [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Interest Rate and Central Bank Operations - Interest rate data: DRO01 closed at 1.57 with a 8.84bp increase; DR007 at 1.59 with a 2.00bp increase; GC001 at 1.70 with a 21.50bp increase; GC007 at 1.73 with a 11.50bp increase; SHBOR 3M at 1.64 with a 0.20bp increase; LPR 5 - year at 3.60 with no change; 1 - year treasury at 1.45 with a - 0.29bp change; 5 - year treasury at 1.53 with a - 1.00bp change; 10 - year treasury at 1.72 with a 0.01bp change; 10 - year US treasury at 4.54 with a - 4.00bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 9460 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, 5000 billion yuan of MLF operations, and 2400 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations. There were 4860 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, resulting in a net injection of 1.2 trillion yuan in the central bank's open - market operations [4] - This week, 9460 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 1350 billion, 3570 billion, 1570 billion, 1545 billion, and 1425 billion yuan maturing from next Monday to next Friday respectively [5] - On May 20, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% (previously 3.1%), and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% (previously 3.6%). State - owned large - scale banks and some joint - stock banks lowered their deposit listing rates, with the current deposit rate of state - owned large - scale banks falling below 0.1% and the 1 - year fixed - deposit rate falling below 1% [5] Stock Index Market - Last week, the CSI 300 fell 0.18% to 3882.3; the SSE 50 fell 0.18% to 2711.9; the CSI 500 fell 1.1% to 5653; the CSI 1000 fell 1.29% to 5989.7. The average daily trading volume decreased by 836.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] - As of May 22, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 18034.6 billion yuan, an increase of 23.8 billion yuan from the previous week [6] - Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, last week, the pharmaceutical biology (1.8%), comprehensive (1.4%), non - ferrous metals (1.3%), automobile (1.2%), and household appliances (1.2%) sectors led the gains, while the computer (-3%), machinery and equipment (-2.5%), communication (-2.3%), electronics (-2.2%), and non - bank finance (-1.7%) sectors led the losses [6] - On May 23, Trump proposed a 50% tariff on the EU starting from June 1, which may be to pressure the EU and push it to increase trade pressure on China and address US concerns in trade negotiations [6]

Core Viewpoint - A new round of deposit rate cuts has begun, with foreign banks following suit in reducing RMB deposit rates [1] Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Mitsubishi UFJ Bank (China) announced a reduction in RMB deposit rates effective June 3, with the interest rate for demand deposits decreasing from 0.10% to 0.05% [1] - For time deposits, the rates for 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year terms have been cut by 15 basis points, now standing at 0.65%, 0.85%, 0.95%, and 1.05% respectively [1] - The 3-year deposit rate has been reduced by 25 basis points, from 1.50% to 1.25% [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of financial policies, including interest rate cuts, leading to a decrease in deposit rates among small and medium-sized banks, with some long-term fixed deposit rates falling below 2% [1] - Since April, at least 20 small and medium-sized banks have lowered their deposit rates, with specific examples showing rates for 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year deposits dropping to as low as 1.5% and 1.85% [1] - The reduction in deposit rates is attributed to the need for banks to manage their liability costs more effectively and to enhance their ability to support the real economy [1] Group 2 - Higher-yielding products like large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) and notice deposits are also seeing a decline in returns, with average rates for 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year large CDs reported at 1.719%, 1.867%, 2.197%, and 2.038% respectively [2] - The attractiveness of large CDs has diminished as their rates fall below those of certain wealth management products and money market funds, leading to a decrease in issuance of medium to long-term large CDs by banks [2] - Small and medium-sized banks have historically set deposit rates slightly higher than large commercial banks to attract savings, but recent trends show a decline in rates across the board [2] Group 3 - The recent interest rate cuts by large banks have prompted some residents to seek higher interest rates by exploring suitable small and medium-sized banks, leading to a potential "savings migration" [3] - The adjustment in deposit rates will significantly reduce the interest income for depositors, prompting a shift of funds towards financial institutions offering higher returns [3] - Small and medium-sized banks are encouraged to enhance their asset management services to meet diverse investment needs, as the banking wealth management market remains stable and healthy [3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of Hubei Province reported that as of the end of April 2025, RMB deposits increased by 444.9 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, with household deposits rising by 410 billion yuan [1] - As of the end of April 2025, the balance of various loans in Hubei's financial institutions reached 91,294 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.28%, with RMB loans increasing by 4,236 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [1] - The balance of various deposits in Hubei's financial institutions reached 98,638 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.43%, with RMB deposits increasing by 4,449 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [1] Group 2 - Recent adjustments by major state-owned banks and some joint-stock banks have led to a reduction in deposit interest rates, with one-year fixed deposit rates falling below 1%, entering the "0% era" [1] - Experts indicate that the reduction in deposit rates will directly impact the interest earned on savings, potentially decreasing the attractiveness of traditional savings and prompting a shift towards consumption and investment in the long term [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints - The reduction of the 5 - month LPR by 10bp and domestic banks' cuts in deposit rates may lead to a shift of deposits, potentially lowering yields of other currency and fixed - income products and increasing the activity of equity investment [2] - The IPO rhythm of technology companies is expected to significantly increase, and the increased supply of new stocks may siphon off funds from small - cap stocks, constraining their gains. Meanwhile, long - term investment reform pilots and the arrival of insurance funds' off - balance - sheet private equity funds may support the performance of large - cap blue - chip stocks, with the market style likely to continue favoring large - cap over small - cap stocks [2] - The trading volume of the entire A - share market has not improved, and the index is still in a volatile trend. The basis of IH and IF remains flat compared to last week, while the discounts of IC and IM have further widened due to the stock game in small - cap stocks, but the discounts are expected to converge [2] - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, and IM will strengthen next week, while the basis of IC will weaken [3] 3) Summary by Related Content Market Policy Impact - The 5 - month LPR was cut by 10bp, and domestic banks reduced deposit rates, with the one - year fixed - deposit rate falling below 1%. This may cause a shift of deposits, affecting the yields of other products and increasing equity investment activity [2] - The press conference mentioned deepening the IPO system reform for innovation and entrepreneurship and supporting the listing of technology companies, which will increase the supply of new stocks and may impact small - cap stocks. Long - term investment reform pilots and the arrival of insurance funds' off - balance - sheet private equity funds may support large - cap blue - chip stocks [2] Market Performance - The daily trading volume of the entire A - share market was slightly over one trillion, and the index was in a volatile trend. On Friday, there were large sell - offs in index ETFs, causing a rapid decline in broad - based indices. The weekly lines of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 turned down, and the CSI 500 and 1000 fell by over 1% [2] Basis Situation - The basis of IH and IF remained at the same level as last week, while the discounts of IC and IM widened due to the small - cap stock game. The widening of single - day discounts for a long time may be due to speculative hedging. With the increasing congestion in small - cap stocks, the discounts are expected to converge [2] Basis Forecast - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, and IM will strengthen next week, while the basis of IC will weaken [3]

继5月20日国有六大行率先开启第七轮人民币存款挂牌利率下调后，多家股份行也跟进调 整。截至5月22日，招商银行、中信银行、兴业银行等12家股份行已全部完成存款利率的下 调，整存整取挂牌利率最高降幅为25个基点。 有专家表示，存款挂牌利率再度下调，且本次幅度大于LPR降幅、中长期存款利率降幅更 大，有利于进一步缓解存款长期化趋势，稳定银行负债成本，改善银行盈利能力，提升金融 服务实体经济的可持续性。同时，随着存款利率进一步下行，可能再次推动"存款搬家"。 12家股份行跟进下调存款利率 5月20日，工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、建设银行、交通银行、邮储银行、宣布对人民 币存款利率进行了调整。与此前相比，六家国有大行银行活期存款利率均下调0.05个百分点 至0.05%，各期限定期存款挂牌利率全线下调，最大降幅25个基点，1年定期利率首次跌破 1%。 近两日，多家股份制银行宣布跟进调整。截至5月22日，招商银行、中信银行、兴业银行等 12家股份行已全部完成存款利率的下调。 与国有大行相似，此次股份行多个期限存款利率均有所调整。其中，人民币活期存款利率统 一下调5个基点至0.05%，中长期限存款下调幅度更大，整存整取挂 ...

继5月20日六家国有大行率先开启新一轮人民币存款挂牌利率调降工作后，各家股份制银行正在纷纷跟进调整。 《金融时报》记者注意到，5月21日，已有招商银行（600036）、平安银行（000001）、中信银行（601998）等9家股份制银行完成了存款利率下调。5月 22日上午，渤海银行、恒丰银行、浙商银行（601916）3家股份行也在官网发布了关于调整人民币存款挂牌利率的公告。 | 存款项目 | 个人存款(年利率 %) | 单位存款(年利率%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 活期在家 | 0.05 | 0. 05 | | 定期存款 | | | | 整存整取 | | | | 三个月 | 0. 70 | 0. 70 | | 半年 | 0.95 | 0. 95 | | 一年 | 1. 15 | 1. 15 | | 二年 | 1. 30 | 1. 30 | | 三年 | 1. 55 | 1. 55 | | 五年 | 1. 60 | 1. 60 | | 零存整取、 整存零取、存本取息 | | | | 一年 | 0. 70 | - | | 三年 | 0.95 | - | | 五年 | 1. 15 | - | ...