摩根士丹利宏观策略谈-年终收官时刻以全局视角眺望全球 20251217 摘要 中国名义 GDP 增长预期约为 4%，低于市场普遍预期。财政政策预计温 和前置，侧重基建投资，如城市更新和 AI 算力中心。若上半年形势有变， 或追加相当于 GDP 0.5%的新增财政空间。 货币政策方面，降息降准空间有限，预计全年降息幅度在 10-20 个基点， 更侧重结构性工具。房地产政策方面，按揭利率补贴可能在 2025 年二 季度推出，消费方面，延续以旧换新，并探讨服务业消费补贴。 中国在科技板块、电池、电动汽车、机器人、光伏等新兴产业领域具有 先发优势。预计中国占全球出口市场份额有望从 15%提升至 16%- 17%，受益于企业全球化和人才优势。 中国资本市场信心有所提升，新兴产业企业家精神重燃。政策层面逐步 纠偏，增加对消费、社保的支持，但转型速度偏慢，需关注消费民生问 题。 美联储 12 月降息后，预计 2026 年 1 月和 4 月仍有两次降息，上半年 流动性相对宽松，利好风险资产。美国就业环境面临压力，美联储决策 会考虑此因素。 Q&A 2026 年中国宏观政策的总体定调是什么？ 2026 年中国宏观政策的总体定调 ...

（编辑 王雪儿） 证券日报网讯 12月17日，大地熊在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司以全国重点实验室等高能级 研发平台为支撑，建立了高性能稀土永磁制造全过程核心技术体系，产品具有高磁性能、高矫顽力、高 服役特性等特点，主要应用于汽车工业、工业电机和高端消费类电子等智能制造和节能环保领域，可应 用于低空飞行器电机、机器人电机以及航天航空等细分市场。公司积极关注新兴产业发展动态和下游应 用市场的需求变化，做好新产品研发和技术储备。 ...

2022年1月，浙江省人民政府批复设立温州湾新区。温州湾新区规划控制总面积约158.48平方公里，空 间范围包括温州高新技术产业开发区、温州经济技术开发区、空港片区、龙湾二期围垦、瓯飞一期（北 片）。 "龙湾发布"解读文章称，近年来，温州湾新区、龙湾区坚定实施创新驱动发展战略，国科温州研究院、 瓯江实验室等高能级平台蓬勃发展，中国眼谷、国际云软件谷等产业地标加速崛起，瑞浦兰钧、麦田能 源等一批新兴产业项目相继落地，为龙湾高质量发展注入了强劲动力。 此外，温州湾新区、龙湾区地区生产总值已跨越"千亿"台阶，连续三年夺得浙江省"科技创新鼎"，创新 能力持续跃升。在此基础上，为了更好地落实国家新兴产业政策，推进温州湾新区新兴产业实现跨越式 发展，专门统筹新兴产业发展的新兴产业局应运而生。 "设立新兴产业局既是机构调整的内在需求，也是实现经济社会高质量发展的战略举措。"温州湾新区新 兴产业局负责人表示，当前，新一轮科技革命和产业变革深入发展，新材料、新能源、人工智能等新兴 产业已成为决定区域竞争力的关键因素。新兴产业局将全力肩负起推动全区新兴产业集聚发展的重要使 命，以科学规划和精准研究绘好产业"路线图"，以链式招商和 ...

Core Insights - Multiple regions in China are actively promoting projects to attract private capital, with a total of 120 projects in Beijing alone, amounting to an investment of approximately 110.6 billion yuan, aiming to draw in about 33.1 billion yuan from private investors [1] - The focus on new technologies, new infrastructure, and new consumption sectors is expected to inject sustainable momentum into high-quality development, enhancing economic structure optimization and public service improvement [2][3] Group 1: Project Promotion - Beijing's Development and Reform Commission has initiated the second batch of projects for private capital, totaling 120 projects with an investment of around 110.6 billion yuan [1] - Other regions, such as Chongqing and Hubei, have also launched initiatives to attract private investment, with Hubei planning to introduce 275 projects with a total investment of 216.99 billion yuan [1] - The projects cover various sectors, including advanced materials, new energy vehicle components, and digital economy, showcasing the potential for investment in these areas [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The project lists emphasize emerging industries, particularly in technology and advanced manufacturing, which align with market demands for high-growth sectors [3] - Infrastructure, urban renewal, and public services are also highlighted as key areas for investment, catering to different risk preferences among private investors [3] - The inclusion of projects related to AI, hydrogen-powered drones, and other innovative technologies indicates a strategic focus on fostering new production capabilities [2][3]

中国经济 新亮点。 4.8% 增速和上月相比 保持平稳 2025年11月 我国工业生产稳定增长 3组数据看亮点 国务院新闻办公室12月15日举行新闻发布会,介绍 2025年11月份国民经济运行情况。国家统计局有关 负责人表示,今年以来,工业生产对推动经济稳定 发展作出了重要贡献。从11月份情况来看,我国工 业生产总体保持稳中提质发展态势。 生产保持平稳增长 11月份 规模以上工业增加值 环比增长 同比增长 7.7% 0.44% 41个大类行业中 有30个行业增加值保持同比增长 占73.2% 623种主要产品中 有49.8%产品产量保持增长 和上月基本相当 比上月加快 0.27个百分点 看）行业和产品 结构继续优化升级 工业高端化发展态势明显 11月份规模以上- 高技术制造业 装备制造业 增加值同比增长 【图解】11月我国工业生产稳定增长，3组数据看亮点→ [ 责编：杨煜 ] 8.4% 累计增加值占全部规模以上工业比重 16.9% 36.4% 中高端装备行业和产品增势较好 | 11月份 | 增加值增长 | | --- | --- | | 汽车制造业 | 11.9% | | 铁路船舶航空航天和 其他运输设备制造业 ...

Economic Overview - In November, the national economy continued to show a stable and progressive development trend, with a focus on implementing proactive macro policies and promoting high-quality development [2][6] - The total grain production for the year is expected to exceed 1.4 trillion jin, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [2] Industrial Production - The industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.8% year-on-year in November, with a month-on-month increase of 0.44% [3] - The equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry saw significant growth, with increases of 7.7% and 8.4% respectively [3] - The production of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles grew by 100.5%, 20.6%, and 17.0% year-on-year respectively [3] Retail Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan in November, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [4] - Online retail sales amounted to 144,582 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.1%, and physical goods online retail sales accounted for 25.9% of total retail sales [4] - Service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with significant growth in cultural, sports, and travel services [4] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, while manufacturing investment increased by 1.9% [5] - Infrastructure investment fell by 1.1%, and real estate development investment dropped by 15.9% [5] - Investment in high-tech industries, such as information services and aerospace manufacturing, saw significant increases of 29.6% and 19.7% respectively [5] Policy Impact - A series of proactive macro policies have effectively supported stable economic operations, leading to expanded consumer demand and increased key investments [7][8] - The implementation of consumption upgrade policies has resulted in significant sales growth in home appliances and communication equipment [8] - The industrial production growth was supported by policies promoting market demand and industrial upgrades [8] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking a continuous recovery trend [9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, indicating a narrowing decline trend since August [10][11] Long-term Economic Outlook - The resilience of the economy remains strong, with macro policies providing robust support and new growth drivers emerging [12][13] - The expansion of market demand and the continuous growth of new economic drivers are expected to positively impact economic development [12][14] - The upcoming economic policies aim to enhance domestic demand and optimize supply, ensuring a solid foundation for future growth [14]

以下文章来源于国民经略 ，作者凯风 国民经略 . 在这里，读懂中国经济、城市和楼市 本文来自微信公众号： 国民经略 ，作者：凯风 省域经济，天花板还在抬升。 经济总量翻番，意味着到2035年广东GDP总量要达到25万亿以上。 如果以2020年为基准，2035年广东GDP也要达到22万亿左右。 去年，广东GDP已站上14万亿大关，与俄罗斯相当，连续36年位居全国首位。 以25万亿为目标，年均名义复合增长率要在5%以上；以22万亿为目标，年均名义增速只要3.5%左 右。 无论如何，到2035年，广东大概率都会晋级20万亿大省，并朝着25万亿乃至更高水平跃升。 20万亿大省，还有多远？ 广东省"十五五"规划建议提出，从二十大到2035年，用13年时间基本实现社会主义现代化、建成一 个现代化的新广东。 "到那时，经济总量实现倍增，人均地区生产总值达到中等发达国家水平"。 "二十大"召开的2022年，广东GDP为13万亿元左右。 如今，加州正在成为广东新的赶超对象，路虽远，但行则将至。 根据IMF统计，2024年加州名义GDP约为4.1万亿美元，与日本基本相当，放在全球可排在第四大经 济体。 广东之于中国，相当于加州之 ...

其中，深证成指将调入德明利、沃尔核材、拓维信息、四方精创等，调出国药一致、中国天楹、海德股份、洽洽食品等。 创业板指将调入双林股份、常山药业、富临精工、长芯博创等；调出碧水源、易华录、天华新能等。 深证100指数样本股调入藏格矿业、国货航、东山精密等；调出天山股份、山西焦煤、晶澳科技等7只个股。 创业板50指数样本股调入常山药业、菲利华、长芯博创等；调出特锐德、芒果超媒、光弘科技等。 据中国证券报报道，此次调整为指数样本的定期例行调整，跟踪上述指数的ETF也将在这前后完成调仓。 根据此前公告，上证50指数更换4只样本，上证180指数更换7只样本，上证380指数更换38只样本，科创50指数更换2只样本，沪深300指数更换11 只样本，中证500指数更换50只样本，中证1000指数更换100只样本，中证A50指数更换4只样本，中证A100指数更换6只样本，中证A500指数更换 20只样本。 其中，上汽集团、北方稀土、华电新能、中科曙光调入上证50指数；翱捷科技、盛科通信调入科创50指数；华工科技、光启技术、中际旭创、胜 宏科技调入中证A50指数。 同时，根据深圳证券交易所及深圳证券信息有限公司公告，深证成指、创业 ...

记者丨 江佩佩 见习记者张嘉钰 编辑丨谢珍 12月12日收市后，上证50、科创50、中证A50等指数的样本调整正式生效。深证成指、创业 板指等指数的样本定期调整则将于12月15日正式实施。 根据此前公告，上证50指数更换4只样本，上证180指数更换7只样本，上证380指数更换38只 样本，科创50指数更换2只样本，沪深300指数更换11只样本，中证500指数更换50只样本，中 证1000指数更换100只样本，中证A50指数更换4只样本，中证A100指数更换6只样本，中证 A500指数更换20只样本。 其中，上汽集团、北方稀土、华电新能、中科曙光调入上证50指数；翱捷科技、盛科通信调 入科创50指数；华工科技、光启技术、中际旭创、胜宏科技调入中证A50指数。【 详见 】 同时，根据深圳证券交易所及深圳证券信息有限公司公告，深证成指、创业板指、深证100、 创业板50等指数的样本定期调整将于12月15日正式实施。其中，深证成指更换17只样本股， 创业板指更换8只样本股，深证100更换7只样本股，创业板50更换5只样本股。 其中，深证成指将调入德明利、沃尔核材、拓维信息、四方精创等，调出国药一致、中国天 楹、海德股 ...

Group 1 - The Central Economic Work Conference highlighted the importance of maintaining confidence in economic development and outlined key tasks for the upcoming year [1][2] - The conference emphasized the need to focus on domestic demand and build a strong domestic market as a priority for economic work [6][10] - The meeting set forth eight key tasks for economic work in the coming year, including boosting consumption and enhancing innovation-driven growth [6][10] Group 2 - The conference recognized the achievements of the past five years in economic development, despite facing various challenges [2][4] - The meeting called for a focus on high-quality development and the transformation of advantages into practical effectiveness [6][9] - The importance of regional coordinated development and the integration of urban and rural areas was underscored as essential for modernization [9][12] Group 3 - The conference discussed the need for macroeconomic governance to stabilize economic operations and enhance policy effectiveness [10] - Specific measures were proposed to support agriculture and rural revitalization, emphasizing the importance of food security [5][9] - The meeting highlighted the role of investment in infrastructure projects as a key measure for stabilizing growth [5][10]