瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.22」 沪铜市场周报 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 供需稳定预期向好，沪铜或将有所支撑 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线震荡运行，周线涨跌幅为-0.47%，振幅1.02%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价78960元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美联储大部分官员依旧对降息保持谨慎姿态。美国8月标普全球综合PMI初值录得55.4，创8个月新 高，交易员减少对美联储今年两次降息的押注。国内方面，5000亿"准财政"工具将出炉！从地方透露信息来看，新型政 策性金融工具的资金规模为5000亿元，重点投向新兴产业、基础设施等领域。基本面矿端，由于铜矿区供给的释放，铜精 矿TC现货指数有所回升，但亦处负值区间运行，铜矿坚挺对铜价支撑仍在。供给方面，铜精矿港口持续回落，国内冶炼厂 需求有所提升，预计国内精铜供给量或有小幅增长。需求方面，由于淡季影响的持续，下游消费表现仍较为平淡，但随着 旺季节点的临近，下游或有 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Carbonate Lithium Market Weekly Report: Supply Slightly Increases, Demand Improves, Lithium Prices May Find Support" [2] - Date: August 22, 2025 - Researcher: Chen Sijia - Core Viewpoint: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium remain largely unchanged, with both supply and demand increasing. Although inventory is still high, it is being depleted. The report suggests a light - position, short - term long strategy when prices are low, while controlling risks [5] Group 2: Market Performance Futures Market - The closing price of the carbonate lithium main contract was 78,960 yuan/ton as of August 22, 2025, a weekly decrease of 7,940 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of - 9.14% and an amplitude of 13.81%. The near - far month spread was 220 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 120 yuan/ton [5][11] Spot Market - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 83,900 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1,200 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 4,940 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 9,140 yuan/ton [17] Group 3: Upstream Market Lithium Concentrate - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 970 US dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 86 US dollars/ton. The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1778, a weekly increase of 0.07% [21] Lithium Mica - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 50 yuan/ton. The average price of lithiophilite was 7,825 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 615 yuan/ton [26] Group 4: Industry Supply and Demand Supply - As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of carbonate lithium was 13,845.31 tons, a decrease of 3,852.31 tons from June, a decline of 21.77% and a year - on - year decline of 42.67%. The monthly export volume was 366.347 tons, a decrease of 63.31 tons from June, a decline of 14.74% and a year - on - year increase of 37.2%. The monthly output was 44,600 tons, an increase of 500 tons from June, an increase of 1.13% and a year - on - year increase of 14.36%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a monthly decline of 5% and a year - on - year decline of 32% [31] Demand - **Electrolyte and Related Materials**: As of July 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 179,450 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons from June, an increase of 3.94% and a year - on - year increase of 44.16%. The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 55,750 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 8,000 yuan/ton [34] - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of July 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 213,960 tons, an increase of 10,660 tons from June, an increase of 5.24% and a year - on - year increase of 26.6%. The operating rate was 51%, a monthly decrease of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 5%. The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 34,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [39] - **Ternary Materials**: As of July 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 61,920 tons, an increase of 2,920 tons from June, an increase of 4.95% and a year - on - year increase of 24.09%. The operating rate was 52%, a monthly increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 1%. The prices of mainstream ternary materials continued to strengthen [42] - **Lithium Manganate**: As of July 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,120 tons, a decrease of 680 tons from June, a decline of 6.3% and a year - on - year increase of 11.21%. The average price of lithium manganate was 34,000 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2,000 yuan/ton [47] - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of July 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 12,870 tons, an increase of 470 tons from June, an increase of 3.79% and a year - on - year increase of 71.14%. The average price of lithium cobaltate was 235,000 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 5,000 yuan/ton [50] Application End - New Energy Vehicles - As of July 2025, the monthly production of new - energy vehicles was 1,243,000 units, a monthly decrease of 1.97%; the monthly sales were 1,262,000 units, a monthly decrease of 5.04%. The penetration rate was 44.99%, a monthly increase of 0.68% and a year - on - year increase of 8.61%. The cumulative export volume was 1.308 million units, a year - on - year increase of 84.75% [52][57] Group 5: Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.13, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to build a long straddle option to bet on increased volatility [60]

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 政策双周报（0807-0821）：财政贴息政策落 地，政策性工具有望推出 ❖ 宏观基调：财政贴息政策落地，年内设备更新资金下达完毕 （1）财政贴息：《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》和《服务业经营主体 贷款贴息政策实施方案》出台，以提振消费需求，两顶政策到期后将开展效果 评估，研究视情延长政策的期限。 （2）国常会：国常会上李强总理强调要培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投 资。 （3）设备更新：据发改委，年内 1880 亿元超长期特别国债支持设备更新投资 补助资金下达完毕。 ❖ 财政政策：专项债可用于 PPP 建设成本，"准财政"工具有望推出 （2）货政报告：央行二季度货政执行报告延续"落实落细"总定调，防资金 空转仍有定力。 （3）金融数据：金融时报回应如何更好理解当前金融数据的问题时称在当 前决策层多次提到"破除内卷式竞争"的背景下，金融机构必须看到挖掘 有效信贷需求是银行稳健可持续经营的保障。 ❖ 金融监管：银行并购贷款征求意见稿出台，个人养老金新增三种领取情形 （1）银行：监管整治银行"内卷式"竞争；居民存款搬家，资金加速入市； 商业银行并购贷款管理办法 ...

自今年5月以来，多地围绕新型政策性金融工具开展政策宣讲会或者项目筹备会。近期，部分 地方更是进一步梳理出入库项目清单，明确了申报基金的金额。 从地方透露信息来看，新型政策性金融工具的资金规模为5000亿元， 重点投向新兴产 业、基础设施等领域，具体包括数字经济、人工智能、低空经济、消费领域、绿色低碳、 农业农村、交通物流、城市基础设施等 ，国家开发银行、中国农业发展银行、中国进出口 银行等政策性银行参与其中。 不仅地方在积极准备，中央政府层面也在释放信号，将加大稳投资的力度。8月18日，国务院 第九次全体会议表示，要加力扩大有效投资，发挥重大工程引领带动作用，适应需求变化更多 投资于人、服务于民生，积极促进民间投资。8月1日，国家发展改革委相关负责人表示，近 期，国家发展改革委将报批加快设立投放新型政策性金融工具。 财达证券常务副总经理胡恒松对21世纪经济报道记者表示，新型政策性金融工具定位为"准财 政"工具，由发改部门筛选项目清单，政策性银行发行金融债融资提供项目资本金，财政部提 供贴息支持。区别于2022年政策性开发性金融工具，本次新型政策性金融工具使用范围更加广 泛，有交通物流、消费领域基础设施，但更加 ...