曾准确今年2月大顶及4月大底的资深技术分析师Tom DeMark警告，美国股市将再次下跌，标普500指数可能跌破4月盘中低点4835，较2月高点回调20%，从 而进入熊市。 作为华尔街资深分析师，Tom DeMark曾为保罗·都铎·琼斯、利昂·库珀曼和史蒂夫·科恩等亿万富翁投资者提供咨询服务。他运用一套基于数学关系、经过半 个世纪的图表研究而形成的市场走势预测系统，其信条是：好消息传来时市场见顶，坏消息传来时市场见底。 本周五标普500指数已经连续第九天上涨，是其自2004年以来持续时间最长的上涨周期。根据DeMark的最新预测，市场近期顶部可能在几天内出现，目前标 普5669点的水平，可能会让买家精疲力竭： 触顶即将到来。技术面损害已经太大了。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 股市目前很脆弱，如果全球贸易前景出现任何快速变化，很容易受到严重打击。 这一预测是基于DeMark的"倒计时"研究方法，研究的核心是将证券的收盘价与四天前的最高或最低价进 ...

资深技术分析师汤姆·狄马克表示，美国股市未来几个月可能再次下跌，并最终迈入熊市。狄马克此前 准确预测了今年2月的市场高点和4月的低点，他在业内颇受关注，曾为保罗·都铎·琼斯、利昂·库珀曼和 史蒂夫·科恩等亿万富翁投资者提供建议。他所使用的市场预测系统基于其长达半个世纪的图表分析经 验，专注于趋势耗尽指标(TD Sequential)，信条是："市场常在利好消息中见顶，在坏消息中筑底"。 ...

截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日上涨114.09点，收于40227.59点，涨幅为0.28%；标 准普尔500种股票指数上涨3.54点，收于5528.75点，涨幅为0.06%；纳斯达克综合指数下跌16.81点，收 于17366.13点，跌幅为0.10%。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块八涨三跌。公用事业板块和房地产板块分别以0.70%和0.68%涨幅领 涨，科技板块和必需消费品板块分别以0.30%和0.15%跌幅领跌。 阿波罗全球管理公司首席经济学家托尔斯滕·斯洛克（Torsten Slok）预计，受关税影响，美国商店一些 货架可能在5月份晚些时候变空，夏季预计会出现经济衰退。 美国沃尔夫研究公司的首席投资策略师克里斯·森耶克（Chris Senyek）在28日表示，上周美国股市的反 弹更多很可能是熊市的一个迹象，而非是市场的反转，这意味着投资者应该为更多的市场波动做好准 备。 森耶克说，虽然有效关税显著升高，美国暂缓90天对大多贸易伙伴加征关税，标普500指数目前仅略低 于4月2日美国公布对等关税措施时的水平。在市场对经济数据和消息面极度敏感的情况下，随着贸易协 议相关细节的公布，投资者锚定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently in a non-bullish and non-bearish state, having seen a bottom but with weak bullish momentum. The ability to break the downward trend line depends on trading volume [1][5]. Technical Analysis - The market needs to close above 3281 to break the downward trend line formed since 3439, with a focus on trading volume for further upward movement [1]. - The closing prices for the week were as follows: opened at 3273, reached a low of 3270, a high of 3313, and closed at 3295, resulting in a 0.56% increase [2]. - Weekly technical indicators show a low opening small bullish candle, with the closing price below the weekly life line and key areas, indicating a mid-term bearish outlook and a short-term weak balance between bulls and bears [4]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels are at 3288, 3280, and strong support between 3277-3258, while resistance levels are at 3310, 3317, and strong resistance between 3327-3342 [9]. - The market must maintain above 3288 to avoid further declines, with potential adjustments down to 3233 if significant losses occur [5]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to oscillate between the upper and lower gaps, with a focus on filling the upper gap first for bullish sentiment, and the lower gap for bearish sentiment [6]. - The next week's critical levels are: monthly life line at 3239, weekly life line at 3309, and daily life line at 3289 [7]. - Closing above 3310 is acceptable, above 3330 is favorable, and above 3350 indicates strong bullish momentum [8].

市场如果是对的，那我一定大错特错， 我觉得贸易战的影响很大，对于双方都是。 但是指数竟然能回到3300, 虽然我没有做空，但可以说是踏空！ 我不理解。 香橙柠檬 当你质疑市场的时候，他一定是对的；当你认同他的时候，他大概率是错的。就是这样反人 性，所以你要有一个标准（策略），去衡量他，而不是凭感觉去判断。 火星兔 现状是另一只手的力量很强大，扭曲了市场。但是长期看，经过充分地发酵，更多人认清事 实，还是会还原市场的本来面目。 我的教训是一定要做时间的朋友，否则即使判断正确方向，却倒在转折之前。 资水 不理解指数涨回3300，那是你的定价模型的因子不完备。 业绩预期下降，股市就一定跌么？股市定价还有其他因子啊，这轮行情至少还有政策和市场 情绪这两个因子。政策方面有GJD入场、国资股回购、机构不许抛。市场情绪方面，看到特 不靠谱的草台班子的做派，国内大部分投资者都认定西必输吧，那么大家都会在西大服软之 前抢筹。 稳若老狗 对手虚晃一枪，我们严阵以待，这次是爱国牛。 你看看集思录大佬，或者就看看实盘贴汇总，有几个人择时？ 大部分人都是长期100%仓位，没有踏空一说。 luckzpz 因为这是牛市！ 银行早就突破70 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced a sharp rebound due to President Trump's announcement of pausing tariffs and implementing a flat 10% rate, except for China, but the Nasdaq remains in a bear market, defined as a 20% drop from its all-time high [1] - Despite the bear market, there are still investment opportunities available, with Amazon and The Trade Desk highlighted as top buys for the next three to five years [2] Group 2: Amazon - Amazon is often viewed as vulnerable due to its reliance on Chinese goods, but this perspective overlooks its diverse revenue streams [3] - The company has multiple segments, including e-commerce, advertising services, and Amazon Web Services (AWS), with the latter two being less affected by potential tariff increases [4] - In 2024, AWS accounted for 58% of Amazon's operating profit while only representing 17% of sales, indicating the strength of its ancillary segments [6] - The advertising segment is estimated to have generated $11.2 billion, contributing significantly to Amazon's overall profitability [6][7] - The current market conditions present a favorable opportunity to invest in Amazon, as its core profit-generating segments remain robust [7] Group 3: The Trade Desk - The Trade Desk's stock has declined over 50% in 2025 due to both internal challenges and broader market sell-offs, leading to a significant drop in stock price [8][9] - Despite missing revenue guidance for the first time and providing a weak outlook, The Trade Desk is expected to grow revenue at an 18% pace in 2025 and 20% in 2026, making it an attractive investment opportunity [9][11]

(图片由豆包AI生成 提示词风暴 熊 ) 昨夜，美股股市又经历了惊心动魄的一晚，主要新闻见闻君为大家总结如下： 美国财长贝森特称，正讨论优先与哪些地区达成关税协议。但白宫官员表示近期不会实施关税豁免，且确认高关税即将来袭。 美股巨震， 道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌 ，早盘涨超4%的纳指收跌超2%，"科技七姐妹"市值已从最高点下跌超过 5 万亿美元。 关税战有愈演愈烈之势，反对声音不断，衰退警告再响。 "马斯克圈子"难以接受高关税，马斯克也毫不掩饰的反对特朗普关税， 大骂白宫高级顾问纳瓦罗"真是个白痴"。 美国前财政部长萨默斯（Lawrence Summers）警告称， 关税或令美国衰退，失业人口恐增200万，美股料暴跌，B等生都知道。 高盛Peter Oppenheimer、Lilia Peytavin的策略团队发出了更为严峻的警告。他们认为，目前的股市抛售潮可能演变为一场持续时间更长的 周期性熊市，因为经济衰退风险正在攀升。 此外，周二美债市场再次遭遇剧烈抛售，10年期国债收益率飙升11个基点至4.3%， 过去两天这一指标已罕见大幅上升近30个基点。 这预示着可能出现类似2020年3 ...

作 者 | Erik Conley 编译 | 华尔街大事件 仅上周，对经济周期敏感的股票（周期性股票）就下跌了 11%。今年迄今，它们已下跌 14%。 另一方面，在经济低迷时期表现良好的股票（防御性股票）上周仅下跌了 4%，今年迄今仅下 跌了 1.5%。 这张图显示了上周的抛售有多猛烈。它实际上始于 2 月份，然后略有反弹，直到上周才彻底崩 盘。 Meta ( META )下跌14%。 微软 ( MSFT ) 下跌 15%。 亚马逊 ( AMZN ) 下跌 22% Alphabet（ GOOGL ）下跌 23%。 苹果 ( AAPL ) 下跌 25%。 NVIDIA ( NVDA ) 下跌 30%。 特斯拉 ( TSLA ) 下跌 41%。 逢低买入？逢高卖出？买入债券、现金、黄金还是比特币？回顾过去的熊市可以为我们提供下 一步该怎么做的宝贵线索。在我们看图表之前 ，先来回顾一下股市刚刚发生的事情。 关税对经济、通胀、行业和个别公司的影响仍存在太多不确定性。预计散户投资者将推动一些 逢低买入的反弹，这些反弹将遭遇机构的大量抛售，直到我们弄清楚谁将成为这一新世界秩序 的赢家和输家。以下是此次抛售的一些亮点： 标 ...

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's stock market faced significant declines, with the composite index dropping over 7%, marking the largest single-day decline since September 2011, attributed to various factors including mass layoffs, weak consumer data, and macroeconomic concerns [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Indonesian composite index has experienced a continuous decline for four trading days, reaching a new low since September 2021, and has fallen over 20% from its historical high of 7910.56 points in September 2024, entering a technical bear market [5]. - The Indonesian rupiah depreciated against the US dollar, trading at 16,419, while bond prices also fell [6][10]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Indonesian Central Statistics Agency reported a 2024 economic growth rate of 5.03%, slightly above the previous forecast of 5% to 5.02%, but still below the 5.2% target set by the previous government [7]. - Weak export performance has been identified as a primary reason for the economic growth falling short of expectations, compounded by consumer weakness ahead of the Ramadan holiday [7][8]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Concerns over potential changes in the finance ministry leadership have negatively impacted market sentiment, with rumors suggesting a possible replacement by a family member of the president [3][9]. - Significant foreign investor sell-offs have occurred, with approximately $1.65 billion in local stocks sold year-to-date, as investors shift towards safer assets amid a pessimistic outlook for the Indonesian stock market [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is likely to continue its sell-off pattern, with concerns about the impact of Trump's tariff plans on the economy and market stability [1] Group 1 - Ed Yardeni, a prominent bull, has adjusted his outlook, suggesting that a bear market may have started on February 20, the day after the S&P 500 reached a record high [1] - Yardeni has increased the probability of a U.S. recession and stock market bear market from 20% to 35%, citing significant tests to consumer and economic resilience due to market declines [1] - The potential for a "lightning crash" similar to those in 1962 and 1987 is highlighted, which could provide buying opportunities for previously overvalued stocks that have now declined [1] Group 2 - Yardeni predicts that the stock market will experience volatility in the first half of the year, with a potential return to record levels in the second half [2] - The probability of a sustained bull market until 2025 without adjustments or bear markets has decreased from 80% to 65% [2] - Long-term projections for a continued bull market into the 2030s remain at 55%, contingent on the absence of worsening trade conflicts [2] Group 3 - Concerns are raised about the lack of support from the Federal Reserve, as Chairman Powell indicated that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates [2] - Insider buying has been observed in cyclical sectors such as energy, technology, banking, industrials, and biotechnology, indicating potential buying opportunities [2] - Market analysis suggests that the S&P 500 could rebound to approximately 5950-6000 points, reflecting a 3-4% increase from the previous week's closing price [2]