9月4日，美股三大股指收涨，美国科技七巨头指数走强。博通公司2025财年三季报业绩表现超预期，公 司股价上涨，总市值增至1.44万亿美元。大宗商品方面，国际金价、油价回落。 市场人士分析，隔夜美股走强得益于美国最新ADP就业数据不及预期，从而进一步强化了市场对美联储 9月降息的预期。接下来，市场重点关注即将公布的8月非农就业数据，该数据表现或对上述预期带来影 响。 央视新闻报道，当地时间9月4日，美国白宫发表声明表示，美国总统特朗普签署行政命令，正式实施美 日贸易协议。 美股三大股指上涨 在美联储9月降息预期升温提振下，9月4日，美股三大股指收涨，美股道指、纳指、标普500指数分别上 涨0.77%、0.98%、0.83%。 美股大型科技股隔夜表现活跃，美国科技七巨头指数涨1.17%。成分股中，亚马逊涨逾4%，Meta、特斯 拉均涨逾1%；谷歌（Alphabet）-C涨0.68%，盘中创历史新高。 博通发布截至8月3日的2025财年第三季度报告，报告期内，公司实现营业收入159.52亿美元，调整后每 股收益为1.69美元，均较上年同期增长同时高于市场预期。从盘面表现看，博通收涨逾1%，总市值升 至1.44万亿美 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit widened to $78.3 billion in July, significantly higher than the adjusted $59.1 billion in June and above market expectations [1] - Analysts attribute the increase in the trade deficit to U.S. companies importing goods and materials ahead of new tariffs announced by President Trump, leading to a four-month high in the trade deficit [1] - The anticipation of tariffs also resulted in a substantial increase in gold shipments, further contributing to the rise in total imports [1] Import and Export Data - In July, U.S. imports amounted to $358.8 billion, a month-on-month increase of 5.9%, while exports were $280.5 billion, with a slight increase of 0.3% [1] - The goods trade deficit increased by $18.2 billion to $103.9 billion, while the services trade surplus decreased by $1.1 billion to $25.6 billion [1] - The total trade deficit for goods and services rose by 32.5% month-on-month to $78.3 billion [1] Year-to-Date Trade Performance - Year-to-date, the U.S. trade deficit for goods and services has increased by $154.3 billion compared to the same period in 2024, representing a 30.9% increase [1] - Exports have risen by $10.3 billion, a 5.5% increase, while imports have surged by $257.5 billion, marking a 10.9% increase [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit widened to $78.3 billion in July, significantly higher than the revised $59.1 billion in June and above market expectations [1] - Analysts attribute the increase in the trade deficit to U.S. companies importing goods and materials ahead of new tariffs announced by President Trump, leading to a four-month high in the trade deficit [1] - The anticipation of new tariffs also resulted in a substantial increase in gold shipments, further contributing to the rise in total imports [1] Import and Export Data - In July, U.S. imports amounted to $358.8 billion, a month-on-month increase of 5.9%, while exports were $280.5 billion, showing a slight increase of 0.3% [1] - The goods trade deficit increased by $18.2 billion to $103.9 billion, while the services trade surplus decreased by $1.1 billion to $25.6 billion [1] - The total trade deficit for goods and services rose by 32.5% month-on-month to $78.3 billion [1] Year-to-Date Trade Performance - Year-to-date, the U.S. trade deficit for goods and services has increased by $154.3 billion compared to the same period in 2024, representing a 30.9% rise [1] - Exports have increased by $10.3 billion, a growth of 5.5%, while imports have surged by $257.5 billion, reflecting a 10.9% increase [1]

Core Viewpoint - The White House announced that President Trump signed an executive order to implement a US-Japan trade agreement, which includes a 15% baseline tariff on nearly all Japanese goods imported to the US, aimed at reducing the trade deficit and enhancing trade balance [1] Group 1: Tariff Structure - The new tariff framework will impose a 15% baseline tariff on almost all Japanese imports to the US [1] - Specific sectors such as automobiles, aerospace products, generic drugs, and natural resources that cannot be sourced or produced domestically in the US will have differentiated tariff treatments [1] Group 2: Market Access and Agricultural Procurement - Japan will provide breakthrough market access opportunities for US manufacturers in key sectors including aerospace, agriculture, food, energy, automobiles, and industrial products [1] - Under the "minimum market access" rice plan, Japan aims to increase its procurement of US rice by 75% [1] - Japan will also commit to purchasing $8 billion worth of US agricultural products annually, including corn, soybeans, fertilizers, and bioethanol [1] Group 3: Automotive and Defense Procurement - Japan will facilitate the sale of US-manufactured passenger vehicles in its market without requiring additional testing, provided they meet US safety certification standards [1] - The Japanese government will also procure US-made commercial aircraft and defense equipment [1]

Employment Data - The latest ADP report indicates an addition of +54K new private-sector jobs in August, missing expectations by 20K [1] - The four-month average for private-sector job growth is +55K, a significant decline from the previous average of +102K [2] - Large corporations added only +18K jobs, while medium-sized companies contributed +25K and small firms added +12K [3] Industry Performance - The Leisure/Hospitality sector saw the highest job growth with +50K new jobs, followed by Construction at +16K and Professional/Business Services at +15K [4] - The Trade/Transportation/Utilities sector experienced the largest decline with -17K jobs, and Education/Healthcare lost -12K jobs [4][5] Wage Trends - Job Stayers experienced an average earnings gain of +4.4%, while Job Changers saw a +7.1% increase, indicating a narrowing wage gap [6] Jobless Claims - Initial Jobless Claims rose to +237K, exceeding expectations and marking the highest monthly total since June [7] - Continuing Jobless Claims decreased to 1.940 million, remaining below the critical 2 million mark for 13 consecutive weeks [8] Productivity and Labor Costs - Q2 Productivity increased to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of +3.3%, the strongest quarterly productivity since Q3 2024 [9] - Unit Labor Costs for the quarter were lower than expected at +1.0%, suggesting a favorable economic environment [9] Trade Deficit - The U.S. Trade Deficit widened to -$78.3 billion in July, a significant increase from the previous month's revised figure of -$59.1 billion [10]

Economic Data Summary - The latest ADP report indicates an addition of +54K new private-sector jobs in August, missing expectations by 20K [1] - The four-month average for private-sector job growth is +55K, a significant decline from the previous average of +102K [2] - Large corporations added only +18K jobs, while medium-sized companies contributed +25K and small firms added +12K [3] Industry Performance - The Leisure/Hospitality sector saw the highest job growth with +50K new jobs, followed by Construction at +16K and Professional/Business Services at +15K [4] - The Trade/Transportation/Utilities sector experienced the largest decline with -17K jobs, along with Education/Healthcare losing -12K jobs [4][5] Labor Market Insights - Job Stayers experienced an average earnings gain of +4.4%, while Job Changers saw a +7.1% increase, indicating a stagnant labor market [6] - Initial Jobless Claims rose to +237K, the highest since June, while Continuing Jobless Claims decreased to 1.940 million [6][7] Productivity and Labor Costs - Q2 Productivity increased to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of +3.3%, the strongest since Q3 2024, while Unit Labor Costs rose by only +1.0% [7] Trade Deficit - The U.S. Trade Deficit widened to -$78.3 billion in July, a significant increase from the previous month's -$59.1 billion [8]

Group 1 - The trade deficit in the U.S. widened to a four-month high in July, reaching $78.3 billion, an increase of nearly 33% from the previous month, exceeding economists' expectations of $78 billion [1] - Imports surged by 5.9% month-over-month, marking the largest increase of the year, driven primarily by a rise in industrial goods imports [1] - The trade deficit with China expanded for the first time in six months, while the deficit with Mexico slightly increased and the deficit with Canada also widened after hitting a record low in June [1] Group 2 - Monthly fluctuations in trade data have contributed to volatility in the U.S. GDP measurement, reflecting clearer understanding of import tariffs among businesses following agreements with key trade partners [2] - Ongoing trade negotiations between the Trump administration and China continue, with a recent court ruling deeming most of the tariff measures implemented by Trump as illegal, although these measures can remain in effect until October 14 for an appeal to the Supreme Court [2]

Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit in July surged to a four-month high, primarily due to businesses stockpiling goods and raw materials ahead of new tariffs announced by President Trump [1][3] - The trade deficit expanded nearly 33% from the previous month to $78.3 billion, slightly above economists' median forecast of $78 billion [1][3] Group 1: Import and Export Data - July imports increased by 5.9%, marking the largest rise since the beginning of the year, while exports saw a slight uptick [3][4] - The surge in imports reflects U.S. companies' urgency to stockpile goods before the implementation of "reciprocal tariff rates" on countries without trade agreements with the U.S. [3][4] Group 2: Specific Import Trends - The increase in imports was broad-based, with industrial goods reaching a four-month high and consumer goods also rising [4] - Capital equipment imports, excluding automobiles, recorded the largest increase since the beginning of the year [4] - A significant rise in non-monetary gold imports contributed to the surge in industrial goods imports [4] Group 3: Trade Deficit with Major Partners - The trade deficit with major partners generally widened, with the deficit with China expanding for the first time in six months [4] - The deficit with Mexico slightly increased, while the deficit with Canada also grew after hitting a low in June [4] - Adjusted for inflation, the goods trade deficit expanded to $100.1 billion in July, following a record high earlier in the year [4]

每经AI快讯，9月4日消息，美国7月贸易逆差为783亿美元，预估为逆差757亿美元，前值为逆差602亿 美元。 ...

Group 1 - The case will be submitted to the Supreme Court, with Trump seeking to expedite the decision process [1] - The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled on August 29 that Trump's imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was overreaching, but allowed current tariffs to remain in effect until October 14 [3] - Trump argues that removing tariffs could lead to another economic depression, as his administration relies on tariffs for billions in revenue and domestic manufacturing support [3] Group 2 - Trump warned that eliminating tariffs could turn the U.S. into a "third world" country, while small businesses claim these tariffs harm U.S. companies reliant on imports and raise consumer prices [4] - The appeals court ruled 7-4 that Congress likely did not intend to grant the president unlimited power to impose tariffs, stating that the law does not explicitly include the power to levy tariffs [6] - A related case is under review by another federal appeals court, which also found that tariffs exceeded presidential authority, with a deadline of October 14, 2025, for the Trump administration's tariff policy [6] Group 3 - The deadline set by the U.S. Court of Appeals means the Supreme Court must decide whether to hear the case before this date, with a potential final ruling by 2026 [8] - Regardless of the outcome, this dispute over presidential power will redefine the boundaries of presidential authority in trade policy, raising concerns about the separation of powers [8]