期货日报网讯（记者 吕双梅）11月15日，2025全球期货交易者大会暨第十九届全国期货（期权）实盘交易大赛、第十二届全球衍生品实盘交易大赛颁奖大 会在西安举办。全球赛重量组第九名、长期稳定盈利奖第五名顾明喆在会上表示，当前全球正处于"繁荣、泡沫与货币贬值"阶段，过去24个月全球央行降息 312次，为黄金价格上涨提供了支撑。另外，近两年央行购金潮持续升温，全球黄金外汇储备占比已首次超过美债，中国、俄罗斯等国长期增持黄金，推动 外汇储备多元化。 "从配置角度看，黄金仍处于结构性低配状态，仅占美国银行私人客户资产管理规模的 0.5%，机构配置比例仅占2.4%，未来上涨空间充足。"他表示，黄金 多头趋势尚未终止，除非发生罕见的大级别地缘与央行再定价事件，如全球贸易摩擦进一步缓和、俄乌和谈出现突破性进展等，短期内难以实现。 顾明喆认为，黄金在降息周期前后均有明确的上涨规律，目前中美贸易磋商取得实质性进展，黄金下一波买点或出现在12月美联储降息后，同时技术上看到 底部结构，波动率回落到正常水平。 ...

2025年11月1日实施的黄金税收新政，对非投资性黄金的税收抵扣规则进行了调整。这直接影响了深圳 水贝市场的黄金交易，导致成本上升和价格调整。有外地的消费者咨询发现，水贝市场内有少量料商可 以低于实时价出售黄金，随即联系跑腿小哥代抢省下了近万元，线下代购黄金这一现象也引发了市民的 热议。 近期，世界黄金协会发布2025年三季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，第三季度全球黄金需求总量 （包含场外交易）达1313吨，需求总金额达1460亿美元，创下单季度黄金需求的最高纪录。 作为当下市场关注度最高的资产之一，黄金起起落落的价格时刻牵动着投资者心弦，现在还是好的投资 时间点吗？ 东方金诚研究发展部副总监瞿瑞表示，投资者需理性看待金价行情，警惕高位波动风险，避免盲目跟风 追涨，需结合自身风险承受能力、资产配置规模及投资周期，合理规划黄金资产占比。 投资者应优化资产配置的风险收益比，关注黄金投资的价格波动风险、流动性风险、机会成本风险等， 在对黄金价格客观分析的基础上力争获得稳健收益。瞿瑞表示，投资者应立足长期逻辑、明确投资目 标，以资产保值、对冲风险为核心，而非单纯追逐短期价差收益，规避盲目追高导致的投资风险。 新闻多 ...

Core Insights - Central Huijin's latest investment activities indicate a significant increase in ETF holdings, with total holdings reaching approximately 1.53 trillion yuan, marking a 19% increase from the previous quarter [1][3][11] - The investment strategy focuses on maintaining a stable position in core broad-based ETFs, particularly in major indices like CSI 300 and SSE 50, reflecting a commitment to market stability [3][13] - Adjustments in specific asset management plans suggest a responsive approach to market trends, with notable actions such as the complete liquidation of a high-dividend ETF [6][7] Investment Holdings Overview - As of September 30, Central Huijin's total ETF holdings increased from 1.29 trillion yuan to approximately 1.53 trillion yuan, a rise of about 2.4 billion yuan [3][11] - The number of ETFs with holdings exceeding 20% reached 28, with a total market value of 1.48 trillion yuan, reflecting a quarterly increase of 233.2 billion yuan [1][7] - The main contributors to the growth in holdings were the core broad-based ETFs, with significant increases in net asset values due to a recovering stock market [6][11] Specific ETF Performance - Fourteen broad-based ETFs saw substantial increases in market value, while only one sector ETF experienced a decline [4] - Central Huijin Investment maintained a stable number of holdings in 15 ETFs, with a total market value of approximately 777.98 billion yuan, reflecting a 19.23% increase [3][6] - Central Huijin Asset also held 12 ETFs, with a total market value of about 697.56 billion yuan, marking an 18.26% increase [6] Strategic Adjustments - The asset management plans under Huaxia and E Fund made strategic adjustments, including the complete liquidation of a high-dividend ETF and a reduction in automotive sector ETF holdings [6][7] - Analysts suggest these adjustments are aimed at aligning with market trends and sector performance expectations [7] Long-term Investment Philosophy - Central Huijin's investment approach emphasizes long-term stability and diversification, focusing on broad-based ETFs to support market stability [13] - The organization is viewed as a "national team" in the capital market, reinforcing investor confidence through its substantial and stable holdings [13][14]

兄弟们，既然要定制，我就按咱们普通人最常见的资金情况和风险承受力来，不搞虚的，每一步都给你说透～ 首先不管你有多少钱，先留好"安全垫"：6-12个月的生活费，比如你每个月花5000，就留3-6万，放货币基金里，随取随用，比活期存款利息高一点，还不 耽误应急，这步是底线，千万别省。 如果闲钱10-50万（中等资金）：可以稍微分散点。50%投宽基指数基金（打底）；20%投行业主题基金（选消费、医疗、新能源这些长期有前景的，别重仓 一个行业）；20%投国债或高等级信用债基金，稳赚利息，平衡风险；10%做机动资金，跌了补仓，或者遇到好机会调整比例。 如果闲钱50万以上（较大资金）：核心是"稳健增值+抗风险"。40%宽基指数基金；20%行业主题基金（选2-3个行业，别扎堆）；20%国债+高等级信用债基 金；10%投黄金ETF（对冲经济波动，相当于"压舱石"）；10%机动补仓。 最后再强调两个避坑点：一是别把钱全投一个地方，鸡蛋分篮子装；二是不管什么配置，都别追涨杀跌，中长线投资拼的就是"熬得住"，我见过太多人拿了 半年就慌着卖，最后错过一波行情。 这个清单是通用版，如果你能说说你的具体资金数、能接受多少波动（比如亏10 ...

Core Insights - Duquesne Family Office, led by Stanley Druckenmiller, filed its third-quarter 13F, showcasing a dynamic and actively managed portfolio that emphasizes agile asset allocation [1][2] - The filing reflects Druckenmiller's ongoing pursuit of growth and value, with a notable increase in new positions while exiting others, consistent with the firm's nimble investment strategy [2] Holdings Summary - New significant positions include Amazon.com Inc. (437,070 shares), Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (2,715,035 shares), Alphabet, Inc. (102,200 shares), Meta Platforms Inc. (76,100 shares), and StubHub Holdings, Inc. (4,259,516 shares) [5] - The firm closed several positions, including Microsoft Corp. (sold 200,930 shares), Eli Lilly & Co (sold 100,675 shares), Viking Therapeutics Inc. (sold 549,295 shares), Applovin Corp. (sold 76,100 shares), and Joby Aviation Inc. (sold 31,489 shares) [5] - As of September 30, 2025, the firm's top five holdings were Natera Inc. (13%), Insmed Inc. (8.6%), Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (8.3%), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (5.3%), and Woodward Inc. (3.9%) [5] Investment Strategy - Duquesne's aggressive repositioning in the third quarter reinforces its reputation for nimble action and readiness to capture growth opportunities, particularly in the healthcare and technology sectors [2]

◎记者 赵明超 随着指数化投资发展提速，中国公募基金公司国际竞争力增强，截至三季度末，有两家机构跻身全球 ETF提供商二十强。在业内人士看来，随着投资者对多元资产配置的需求持续提升，叠加产品创新向更 深层次、更细分领域延伸，中国ETF市场的增长曲线仍具有想象空间，并有望在全球舞台上占据更重要 的位置。 两家公募跻身全球二十强 在业内人士看来，ETF快速发展，不仅是投资方式的变革，更意味着整个市场生态的重塑。 从ETF发展格局来看，其具有较强的头部效应，头部基金管理人遥遥领先，占据了较大的市场份额。其 中，截至11月12日，华夏基金ETF管理规模达到9125.11亿元；易方达基金紧随其后，为8618.52亿元； 华泰柏瑞基金的ETF管理规模超6000亿元。 从行业发展态势看，随着规模效应的持续显现，ETF正在成为基金公司的现金奶牛。以华夏基金为例， 尽管过去两年来基金管理费率下调，但得益于ETF规模的爆发式增长，基金公司利润依然增长。 数据显示，华夏基金2023年净利润为20.13亿元，2024年增至21.58亿元，今年上半年为11.23亿元。从公 司产品类型规模变化情况看，ETF的快速增长，为净利润贡献了重要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The asset management industry must adapt to the low interest rate environment by enhancing management and research capabilities to support economic development and wealth preservation for residents [1] Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategies - Individuals should shift their mindset towards realistic return expectations and adopt a layered asset allocation approach, focusing on long-term investment in quality assets to smooth short-term volatility [2][3] - A key strategy is to match investment tools with the purpose of funds and risk tolerance, ensuring a portion of funds is allocated to safe, liquid assets for emergencies, while also investing in stable and elastic return assets [2][3] Group 2: Insurance Asset Management - Insurance asset management institutions should leverage their understanding of liability characteristics to enhance asset allocation strategies, focusing on long-term market trends and risk management [3][4] - Solid fixed-income assets remain crucial as they provide stable returns and align with the liabilities of insurance funds, while also allowing for the optimization of risk-adjusted returns [3][4] Group 3: Equity and Alternative Investments - Equity assets are essential for long-term returns, with a focus on high-quality stocks that offer stable cash flows and dividends, while also exploring new economic growth areas [4][5] - Alternative investments are viewed as important sources for enhancing returns, with a shift towards traditional non-standard high-yield assets and a focus on green investments and advanced manufacturing [5] Group 4: Technological Advancements in Research - The application of AI and large models significantly improves research efficiency in asset management, enabling better risk identification and decision-making support for investment managers [6] - As technology evolves, financial institutions are expected to increasingly rely on AI and quantitative tools, necessitating compliance with regulations and enhanced data security measures [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic role of commodities in hedging against inflation and diversifying risks in the context of increasing global macroeconomic uncertainty. It highlights the need for balanced asset allocation among stocks, bonds, and commodities, focusing on timing, selection, and position sizing [4][5]. Group 1: Timing and Economic Cycles - The Merrill Lynch Investment Clock is a classic framework for timing asset allocation, categorizing the economy into four phases: recovery, overheating, stagflation, and recession [6]. - Commodity performance varies across different economic cycles: during recovery, commodity prices remain low due to slow demand recovery; in overheating, strong demand leads to significant price increases; stagflation sees rising inflation with stagnant growth; and recession results in declining economic growth and rising bond prices [9][10]. - The relationship between risk assets and economic cycles indicates that stocks tend to lead economic changes, while commodities respond more synchronously or with a slight lag [11]. Group 2: Selection of Commodity Types - Commodities play a crucial role in combating inflation, as upstream raw material price fluctuations often exceed those of downstream products, providing a buffer against price increases [29]. - The article notes that inflation is often driven by significant price volatility in energy products, which can impact costs across various industries [30]. - Understanding the causes of inflation is essential: monetary phenomena can lead to nominal price increases, while supply-demand imbalances often result from constrained supply [32]. Group 3: Position Sizing and Risk Control - The volatility characteristics of stocks, bonds, and commodities differ, with commodities generally exhibiting higher volatility. In stable macro environments, these assets often move in different directions, allowing for risk mitigation through diversification [36]. - The article discusses the risks associated with inflationary changes, where rising inflation expectations can lead to a positive correlation between equity and commodity markets, complicating risk management strategies [39]. - It suggests that during periods of high volatility, conservative strategies may involve increasing bond allocations to stabilize the portfolio, while aggressive strategies might increase risk asset positions for higher returns [41]. Group 4: Reflection on Commodity Allocation - The article highlights the challenges of timing in the current economic environment, where traditional indicators may not accurately reflect the economic cycle due to structural changes [46]. - It points out that the demand for real estate-related commodities is being suppressed by high household leverage, and the economy is shifting towards a multi-faceted growth model driven by exports and consumption [48]. - The disparity in wealth distribution is noted as a factor that limits total demand for commodities, as lower-income households have less purchasing power compared to higher-income households [54][55].

Asset Allocation - The investment research framework has evolved from the traditional Merrill Lynch clock to a Chinese-style monetary credit model, reflecting significant changes in China's economic development model and the diminishing role of investment in driving economic growth [12] - In the new era, liquidity is identified as a core factor influencing asset prices, with the monetary cycle remaining highly relevant. Additionally, international factors, exemplified by US-China relations, significantly impact export engines and cross-border capital flows, becoming crucial for capturing asset price changes [12] Historical Review of Stock and Bond Performance - The report reviews stock and bond performance since 2018, highlighting that in 2018, macroeconomic fundamentals were weak, leading to significant stock market declines while bonds provided good coupon returns. In 2019, equity markets experienced volatility, and bonds continued to offer protection [18] - The analysis indicates that from 2020 to 2025, equity markets have shown resilience driven by technology stocks and structural bull markets, while bonds have entered a bull market phase characterized by declining yields [18] Long-term Bond Market Trends - Historical data shows that each bond bull market corresponds with a downward trend in 10-year government bond yields, driven by the interplay of "debt bulls" and "asset scarcity" [20] - The current bond bull market has seen 10-year government bond yields reach new lows, indicating a significant shift in the bond market landscape [21] Equity Market Trends - The equity market is believed to be in a long-term upward trend, with the current phase identified as the third wave of a five-wave cycle. This phase is expected to last longer than previous cycles, indicating a gradual upward movement [25] - The report draws parallels with Japan's experience, noting that after the economic bubble burst in the 1990s, the Japanese stock market entered a long-term upward channel, supported by structural reforms and monetary easing [29] Core Investment Themes - The report emphasizes a bullish outlook on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, driven by stable US-China relations and a supportive global monetary environment. It suggests that technology stocks will lead the market in the next 5-10 years [36] - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile environment, with a focus on coupon strategies as interest rates are projected to fluctuate between 1.7% and 2.0% [36]

Core Viewpoint - Recent data indicates that foreign capital is significantly reducing its holdings in Chinese bonds, with a notable decline attributed to rising U.S. Treasury yields and currency fluctuations, which may impact China's financial market [1][3][4]. Group 1: Foreign Capital Reduction - As of October 2025, foreign institutions held 29,765 billion yuan in Chinese bonds, a decrease of 2,843 billion yuan or 8.7% since the beginning of the year, marking the longest net outflow in five years [1]. - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds reached 4.8%, compared to approximately 2.6% for Chinese bonds, creating a 2.2 percentage point yield advantage that attracts international capital [1][3]. - Approximately 62% of surveyed international investors indicated that currency fluctuations are a primary factor in their decision to adjust their holdings in Chinese bonds [3][4]. Group 2: Global Monetary Policy and Economic Factors - The divergence in monetary policy, with the U.S. maintaining a stringent stance while China has implemented three interest rate cuts in 2025, has widened the interest rate differential, further encouraging capital flow to the U.S. [4]. - China's GDP growth slowed to 4.6% year-on-year in Q3 2025, which, while still higher than many global economies, has led to cautious sentiment among foreign investors regarding Chinese bonds [4]. Group 3: Impact on Financial Markets - Foreign holdings of Chinese bonds accounted for approximately 2.1% of the total bond market as of October 2025, down from a peak of 3.5% in 2023, suggesting that while the outflow has some impact, it is unlikely to cause severe disruption [6]. - The outflow of capital may exert some pressure on the renminbi, but China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.24 trillion as of September 2025, providing a solid foundation to manage currency fluctuations [6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The internationalization of China's bond market is increasing, with Chinese bonds included in major international indices, which may provide a more stable source of foreign investment in the long run [7]. - A survey of 50 major asset management firms revealed that about 67% believe the proportion of Chinese bonds in their global asset allocation will increase over the next five years [7].