Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the futures market showed slight fluctuations. The EC2512 contract decreased slightly due to the expected price drop in November, while the spreads of EC2512 - EC2602 and EC2602 - EC2604 strengthened. The valuation of EC2512 is neutral, and considering the upcoming peak season and the long - term contract signing period in December, a strategy of reducing long positions is recommended. The valuation of EC2602 is harder to determine and is expected to follow the trend of EC2512 in the short term. If the peak season is realized, EC2602 may have more upside potential. The EC2604 contract is for the off - season, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach considering the expected greater supply pressure in April [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contracts - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices and price changes of multiple EC futures contracts are presented. For example, EC2512 closed at 1778.2 with a - 1.87% change, EC2602 at 1604.9 with a 0.81% change, etc. [2] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads between different contract months are given, such as EC2512 - EC2504 was 612.1, showing a - 35.3 change from the previous day and - 30.8 from the previous week [2]. Spot Indexes - **SCFIS**: Updated weekly, as of 2025/11/10, it was 1504.80 points, with a 24.50% increase from the previous period and a - 7.92% change in the previous period [2]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated every Friday, as of 2025/11/7, it was 1323 dollars/TEU, with a - 1.56% change from the previous period and a 7.87% change in the previous period [2]. - **CCFI**: Updated every Friday, as of 2025/11/7, it was 1366.85 points, with a 3.25% change from the previous period and a 2.37% change in the previous period [2]. - **NCFI**: Updated every Friday, as of 2025/11/7, it was 911.73 points, with a - 5.58% change from the previous period and a 17.43% change in the previous period [2]. Recent European Line Quotations - **45th Week**: The average landed price was about 2050 US dollars (equivalent to 1450 points on the disk) [2]. - **46th Week**: The average landed price was 2000 US dollars (equivalent to 1400 points on the disk) [2]. - **Second Half of November**: The pressure is expected to increase, and the cargo volume may recover. The quoted price is between 2365 - 2950 US dollars, but MSK opened at 2250 US dollars (a 50 - dollar increase from the previous period), and other shipping companies are expected to lower their quotes this week. There may also be a price increase announcement for December [2]. News - **Gaza Cease - fire**: As of November 10, the first - stage cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas was in its second month, but the second - stage negotiation was still "far off". The implementation of the agreement was full of setbacks, and there were concerns that the cease - fire might be terminated [3]. - **Shipping Policy**: Starting from 13:01 on November 10, 2025, China will suspend the implementation of relevant policies on charging special port fees for US ships for one year in synchronization with the US suspension of the final measures of the 301 investigation on China's maritime logistics and shipbuilding industries [3]. - **Index Delay**: The XSI - C index will be delayed by three working days for release [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index is affected by macro - disturbances and the advanced full pricing of peak - season expectations, leading to a volatile market. The short - term macro - positive factors, capacity regulation, and multiple rounds of price - support expectations will still support the market. Before the peak - season expectations are disproven, the main contract is likely to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, but the market has already factored in a certain premium [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Effects** - **Spot Freight Rates**: They have a negative impact. In late November, MSK quoted 2250, HPL 3150, CMA 3200, YML 2550, and ONE 2600. Airlines' price - increase calls are showing obvious differentiation [5] - **Political and Economic Factors**: They have a neutral impact. In November, capacity has recovered, with available capacity on various US gateway routes increasing by 10 - 15% compared to before. The overall TPEB route capacity is expected to fluctuate between 83% - 88%. After the pre - peak - season concentrated booking rush affected by the expected tariff increase on November 1st, the market demand in November remained healthy [5] - **Capacity Supply**: It has a positive impact. The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 290,000, 245,000 in October, 265,000 in November, and is expected to be 290,000 in December. The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years [5] - **Demand**: It has a neutral impact. The key influencing factors are the realization of peak - season demand, the sustainability of airlines' strategies, and geopolitical and long - term agreement variables [5] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The market is expected to oscillate [5] - **Trading Strategy**: For both single - side and arbitrage trading, it is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [5] 3.2 Part Two: Price - The report presents price trends of various container shipping routes such as the European line index, US - West line index, and US - East line index through charts, but no specific text analysis is provided [9] 3.3 Part Two: Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: It shows the order volume and new - order volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years through charts [15] - **Delivery Volume**: It shows the delivery volume and demolition volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years through charts [18][19] - **Future Delivery**: It shows the future delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities in different time periods through charts [24][26] - **Ship Prices**: It includes new - building prices, second - hand ship prices, and scrap prices of container ships with different loading capacities, and presents their trends over the years through charts [31][33][37] - **Existing Capacity**: It shows the existing capacity, age structure, idle and retrofit ratios of container ships through charts [46][49][53] 3.4 Part Three: Dynamic Capacity - **Ship Schedule**: It shows the total capacity deployment and the capacity deployment of different alliances (PA + MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN, MSC) on the Shanghai - European basic port route through charts [61][63][65] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: It shows the situation of container ships with installed, being - installed desulfurization towers, including the number of ships and capacity in TEU, as well as the average age and time for installation through charts [71][72][75] - **Average Speed**: It shows the average speed of container ships with different loading capacities over the years through charts [76] - **Idle Capacity**: It shows the idle capacity, idle - ship number, and idle - capacity ratio of container ships through charts [79][80][81]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views of the Report - The market's bullish sentiment has weakened, some long positions have continued to reduce their holdings, and the market has continued to decline. It is necessary to pay attention to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] - The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottoming out. It is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Conditions - On November 3, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1208.71 points, a 7.9% decrease from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1267.15 points, a 14.4% increase from the previous period [2] - On November 7, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1053.62 points, a 4.24% decrease from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 911.73 points, a 5.58% decrease from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1349.1 points, a 7.14% decrease from the previous period [2] - On November 7, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1495.10 points, a decrease of 3.6 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1323 USD/TEU, a 1.6% decrease from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2212 USD/FEU, a 16.4% decrease from the previous period [2] - On November 7, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1058.17 points, a 3.6% increase from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1366.85 points, a 3.3% increase from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 814.14 points, a 5.4% increase from the previous period [2] - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9, the expected value was 45.1, and the previous value was 45; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 51.2, the expected value was 51.5, and the previous value was 51.4; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 49.7, the expected value was 49.7, and the previous value was 49.6; the Sentix investor confidence index in October was -9.2, and the predicted value was -8.5 [2] - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global service PMI in October was 55.2, the expected value was 53.5, and the previous value was 54.2; the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2, the expected value was 52; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.8, the expected value was 53.1, and the previous value was 53.9 [3] - The Sino-US tariff extension negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased [3] - On November 7, the main contract 2512 closed at 1812.0, a decrease of 1.79%, with a trading volume of 17,100 lots and an open interest of 25,900 lots, a decrease of 2525 lots from the previous day [3] Strategies - Short-term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and the far-month contracts are relatively strong, which is in line with the bottoming-out judgment. Risk-takers have been advised to try to build positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500 (with a profit margin of over 300 points), and all positions have been advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop-losses [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try lightly [4] - Long-term strategy: All contracts have been advised to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after the correction, and then judge the subsequent direction [4] - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]

Report Overview - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: November 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The end - of - year peak season is approaching, market expectations are turning positive, and shipping companies are continuing to raise their quotes for November and December. However, considering the current general demand and the decline of the futures underlying SCFIS index, the price increase may not be fully implemented. Nevertheless, the trend of bottoming out and rebounding is likely to form, and the bottom of freight rates within the year may have appeared. The conflict in the Middle East is frequent and complex, and the Red Sea is expected to remain difficult to resume shipping in the short term. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips for the December contract [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: With the arrival of the year - end peak season, shipping companies are raising 11 and 12 - month quotes. For example, Maersk's large - container quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in the first and second weeks of November are $2380 and $2210 respectively. Mainstream shipping companies' quotes in November range from $2535 - $3000, CMA CGM's November quote is between $2520 - $3546 and further rises to $3752 - $4008 in December. But demand is general and the SCFIS index has declined, so the price increase may not fully materialize [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to maintain the idea of buying on dips for the December contract [8]. 2. Industry News - **China's Export Container Transport Market**: From October 27 to 31, the market was favorable, transport demand was stable, and most route freight rates rose, driving the comprehensive index up. On October 31, the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index was 1550.70 points, up 10.5% from the previous period [9]. - **European Routes**: In October, the eurozone's composite PMI rose to 52.2, the highest since May 2024. On October 31, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1344/TEU, up 7.9% [9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation was similar to that of European routes. On October 31, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $1983/TEU, up 12.4% [9]. 3. Data Overview - **Spot Freight Rates for Container Shipping** - SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) on November 3, 2025, was 1208.71 points, down 7.9% from October 27; SCFIS for US - West routes (basic ports) was 1267.15 points, up 14.4% [12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market** - Provided the trading data of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 contracts on November 5, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. - **Shipping - Related Data Charts** - Included charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [18][20]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The current tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core lies in the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2][3]. - The bullish signals released by liner companies have warmed the market sentiment. Long - position funds have continuously entered, pushing up the futures price. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][3]. - For different time - frame strategies: in the short - term, risk - preference investors who have built positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500 can consider partial profit - taking; in the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contract price surges and wait for the price to stabilize after the correction before making further judgments [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content a. Freight Index - **SCFIS and NCFI**: On November 3, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1208.71 points, down 7.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1267.15 points, up 14.4%. On October 31, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1100.32 points, up 12.60%; for the European route, it was 965.62 points, up 17.43%; for the US - West route, it was 1452.82 points, up 12.30% [2]. - **SCFI and CCFI**: On October 31, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1550.70 points, up 147.24 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1344 USD/TEU, up 7.87%; for the US - West route, it was 2647 USD/FEU, up 22.94%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1021.39 points, up 2.9%; for the European route, it was 1323.81 points, up 2.4%; for the US - West route, it was 772.67 points, up 4.9% [2]. b. PMI Data - **Eurozone**: In October, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6). The Sentix investor confidence index was expected to be - 8.5, with the previous value of - 9.2 [2]. - **China**: In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stable corporate production and operation activities [2]. - **US**: In October, the S&P Global service PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52, previous 52), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [3]. c. Tariff and Trade - Sino - US tariffs continue to be extended, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased [2][3]. d. Market Strategy - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract is weak while the far - month contract is strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preference investors who have built positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500 can consider partial profit - taking. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Stop - loss should be set [3]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or participate with a light position [3]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when the contract price surges and wait for the price to stabilize after the correction before making further judgments [3]. e. Market Conditions on November 5 - The main contract 2512 closed at 1946.0, with a 4.08% increase, a trading volume of 4.12 million lots, and an open interest of 34,100 lots, an increase of 3157 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is rated as neutral, with a value of 0 [12]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Container Shipping Index (European Line) opened lower and moved higher yesterday. The SCFIS index being lower than market expectations and the information of the 46th - week quotation readjustment put pressure on the morning session, while the market pulled up during the afternoon session when Maersk opened bookings [9]. - For the 2512 contract, it is advisable to wait and see for the moment. It is valued around 1900 points (roughly corresponding to $2600/FEU), factoring in the expected implementation of three rounds of price increases [11]. - The 2602 contract has a stronger speculative nature, involving speculations on the late - coming Spring Festival, the possibility of resuming voyages, and the height of December freight rates [12]. - For the 2604 contract, it is recommended to short at high levels on a quarterly basis [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures - EC2512 closed at 1909.9, up 3.82%, with a trading volume of 29,673 and an open interest of 30,915, an increase of 1595 in open interest [1]. - EC2602 closed at 1593.7, up 0.73%, with a trading volume of 5,808 and an open interest of 19,690, an increase of 909 in open interest [1]. - EC2604 closed at 1190.0, up 0.87%, with a trading volume of 1,899 and an open interest of 14,356, a decrease of 151 in open interest [1]. 3.1.2 Freight Rates - The SCFIS European route index was 1208.71, down 7.9% week - on - week; the SCFIS US - West route index was 1267.15, up 14.4% week - on - week [1]. - The SCFI European route index was $1344/TEU, up 7.9% bi - weekly; the SCFI US - West route index was $2647/FEU, up 22.9% bi - weekly [1]. 3.1.3 Spot Freight Rates - In the 46th week, the lowest market price quote came from the PA Alliance, with FAK readjusted to $1700 - 1800/FEU and the lowest SPOT quote at $1500/FEU. The Gemini Alliance's online quotes ranged from $1900 - 2300/FEU, with HPL reducing its quote by $200 to $1900/FEU. The OA Alliance had the highest quotes but they were also being adjusted downwards. MSC's face - value remained at $2265/FEU, with an offline SPOT of $1840/FEU [10]. 3.2 Macro News - The White House stated that the trade teams are still having serious consultations regarding US - India relations, and Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi often communicate [8]. - The US government shutdown deadlock continues, and the record of 35 days is about to be broken as the US Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill on November 4th [8].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: November 4, 2025 [2][18] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [2][18] Group 2: Futures Market Data Futures Contracts - EC2512: Closing price 1851.7, up 2.64%, trading volume 18824, open interest 29320, change in open interest -2045 [2][18] - EC2602: Closing price 1592.2, up 2.48%, trading volume 5040, open interest 18781, change in open interest 326 [2][18] - EC2604: Closing price 1184.4, up 2.01%, trading volume 2233, open interest 14507, change in open interest -403 [2][18] - EC2606: Closing price 1400.8, up 1.54%, trading volume 274, open interest 1490, change in open interest -31 [2][18] - EC2608: Closing price 1483.5, up 0.84%, trading volume 102, open interest 1342, change in open interest -10 [2][18] - EC2610: Closing price 1139.3, up 0.64%, trading volume 176, open interest 1266, change in open interest -14 [2][18] Month Spreads - EC2512 - 2504: Previous day 667.3, change 24.4 compared to the day before the previous day [2][18] - EC2512 - 2602: Previous day 259.5, change 9.1 compared to the day before the previous day [2][18] - EC2502 - 2604: Previous day 407.8, change 15.3 compared to the day before the previous day [2][18] Group 3: Spot Market Data Spot Indicators - Spot (Tetanar): On November 3, 2025, at 1208.71 points, down 74.92% from the previous period, up 15.11% from two periods ago [2][18] - SCF (Europe Line): On October 31, 2025, at 1344 dollars/TEU, up 7.87% from the previous period, up 8.82% from two periods ago [2][18] - CCFI: On October 31, 2025, at 1323.81 points, up 2.37% from the previous period, up 1.99% from two periods ago [2][18] - NCFI: On October 31, 2025, at 965.62 points, up 17.43% from the previous period, up 2.38% from two periods ago [2][18] Group 4: Recent Quotes and News Recent European Line Quotes - This week, downstream is booking space for early November (week 45). In early November, PA dropped to $1700 - 1900, GEMIN to $2100 - 2200, OA to $2250, with an average of about $2050 (equivalent to 1430 points on the disk) [19] News - On October 31, Israel attacked Gaza for the third consecutive night, and the cease - fire agreement was under pressure. The XSI - C index was delayed by three working days [4][20] Group 5: Market Analysis and Suggestions Market Analysis - The overall market is oscillating, waiting for the next driving force. MSK's opening of cabins today may determine the price increase in mid - November [2][18] Investment Suggestions - Due to the positive factors such as long - term contract signing from November to December, it is recommended to adopt a buy - on - dips strategy. Wait for this week to continue trading on PA price cuts or MSK's flat price [2][18] - The valuation of the EC2512 contract is moderately high, and subsequent contracts will mainly follow its trend. The valuation of the EC2602 contract is difficult to anchor with high uncertainty. The EC2604 contract is a off - season contract, and it is recommended to adopt a sell - on - rallies strategy considering the greater supply pressure next year, the off - season in April, and potential resumption of flights [2][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The overall market is fluctuating and waiting for the next driver. The valuation of EC2512 is moderately high. With multiple positive drivers such as subsequent announcements and long - term contract signings from November to December, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The valuation of EC2602 is more difficult to determine, with high uncertainty, and it is expected to mainly follow the trend of EC2512 in the next month. For EC2604, as it is a off - season contract, it maintains a narrow - range fluctuation in the current peak - season logic. Considering greater supply pressure next year, the off - season in April, and potential resumption of flights, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - **Price and Change**: EC2512 closed at 1851.7 with a 2.64% increase, EC2602 at 1592.2 with a 2.48% increase, EC2604 at 1184.4 with a 2.01% increase, EC2606 at 1400.8 with a 1.54% increase, EC2608 at 1483.5 with a 0.84% increase, and EC2610 at 1139.3 with a 0.64% increase [2] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 were 18824, 5040, 2233, 274, 102, and 176 respectively. The open interests were 29320, 18781, 14507, 1490, 1342, and 1266 respectively, with changes of - 2045, 326, - 403, - 31, - 10, and - 14 respectively [2] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2512 - 2504, EC2512 - 2602, and EC2502 - 2604 were 667.3, 259.5, and 407.8 respectively, with day - on - day changes of 24.4, 9.1, and 15.3 respectively [2] Spot Market - **Indices and Changes**: The SCHIS index on November 3, 2025, was 1208.71 points, down 7.92% from the previous period. The SCF was 1344 dollars/TEU on October 31, 2025, up 7.37% from the previous period. The CCFI was 1323.81 points on October 31, 2025, up 2.37% from the previous period. The NCFI was 965.62 points on October 31, 2025, up 17.43% from the previous period [2] Recent European Line Quotations - **Booking Situation**: Downstream customers are currently booking cabins for early November (week 45). In early November, PA's price dropped to 1700 - 1900 US dollars, GEMIN to 2100 - 2200 US dollars, and OA to 2250 US dollars, with an average of about 2050 US dollars (equivalent to 1430 points on the futures market). There was no change in freight rates on Monday [3] Related News - **Geopolitical Events**: On October 31, Israel attacked Gaza for the third consecutive night, impacting the cease - fire agreement. On November 3, the Houthi armed forces stated that they would strongly respond to any Israeli aggression [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillation", and the trading strategy suggests unilateral and arbitrage to remain on the sidelines [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Macroeconomic disturbances and peak - season expectations are driving the EC main contract to operate strongly. Although the overall demand is neutral, short - term macro - level positives, capacity regulation, and multiple rounds of price - support expectations will continue to support the market. Before the peak - season expectations are disproven, the main contract is likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend, but the market has already factored in a certain premium [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Spot Freight Rates**: In early November, MSK quoted $2300, HPL quoted $2150, OOCL quoted $2250, EMC quoted $2500, MSC quoted $2250, YML quoted $1700, and HMM and ONE quoted $1900 [4] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Sino - US trade policy relaxation has released positive signals, but the agreement is short - term and may not lead to significant changes in supply - chain strategies. The US government shutdown has also affected the implementation of tariff policies [4] - **Capacity Supply**: The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 290,000 TEU, 245,000 TEU in October, 265,000 TEU in November, and 290,000 TEU in December [4] - **Demand**: The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years, with significant differences among alliances. Key influencing factors include peak - season demand fulfillment, shipping company strategies, and geopolitical and long - term agreement variables [5] - **Outlook and Strategy**: Short - term macro - positives, capacity control, and price - support expectations will support the market. It is recommended to try long positions on the main contract at low prices, while closely monitoring suspension of voyages and shipping company loading rates [5] 3.2 Price - The report presents various price charts, including the European Line Index, the US West Line Index, the US East Line Index, and spot quotes from Maersk on the European line [9][15] 3.3 Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: It shows the order volume and new - order volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years [18] - **Delivery Volume**: The delivery volume and demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities are presented, as well as future delivery forecasts [21][27] - **Prices**: It includes the scrap price, new - building price, and second - hand ship price of container ships in different loading capacities [34][40] - **Existing Capacity**: The existing capacity of container ships is analyzed in terms of total capacity, capacity by loading capacity, ships over 25 years old, and idle and retrofit ratios [51] 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - **Shipping Schedule**: The total capacity deployment and capacity deployment of different alliances on the Shanghai - European Base Port route are shown [64][66] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: It presents the situation of container ships with installed, being - installed, and to - be - installed desulfurization towers in terms of TEU, number of ships, and percentage [74][75] - **Average Speed**: The average speed of container ships and the average speed by loading capacity are provided [79] - **Idle Capacity**: The idle capacity of container ships, including total idle capacity, idle capacity by loading capacity, and idle capacity ratio, is analyzed [82]

Group 1: Futures Market Data - EC2512 futures had a closing price of 1804.0, a decline of 2.16% and a volume of -491.3, with an open interest of 31365 [2][13] - EC2602 futures closed at 1553.6, down 1.86% and -240.9 in volume, open interest was 18455 with a change [2][13] - EC2604 futures closed at 1161.1, down 1.26% and 151.6 in volume, open interest was 14910 with an increase of 450 [2][13] Group 2: Spread Data - The spread of EC2512 - 2504 was 642.9, with a daily decrease of 25.0 and a weekly increase of 21.6 [2][13] - The spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 250.4, down 10.4 daily and up 39.3 weekly [2][13] - The spread of EC2502 - 2604 was 392.5, down 14.6 daily and down 17.7 weekly [2][13] Group 3: Spot Index Data - The SCHIS index was 1312.71 on 2025/10/27, up 15.11% from the previous period [2][13] - The SCFI (European line) was 1344 dollars/TEU on 2025/10/31, up 7.87% from the previous period [2][13] - The CCFI (European line) was 1323.81 on 2025/10/31, up 2.37% from the previous period [2][13] - The NCFI was 965.62 on 2025/10/31, up 17.43% from the previous period [2][13] Group 4: Capacity and Market Analysis - In week 49, two ships were postponed. December's average weekly capacity is 290,000 - 336,000 TEU [2][13] - November's Week 45 - 48 capacity was 310,000, 250,000, 277,000, 325,000 TEU respectively, with more pressure in the second half [2][13] - In the first half of November, OA and MSK had no pressure in receiving goods, while PA alliance lacked goods and led price - cuts [2][13] Group 5: Investment Suggestions - Suggest an overall "buy - on - dips" strategy, waiting for next week or trading on PA's price - cuts/MSK's price stability [3][14] - The current valuation of the 12 contract is moderately high, and the 02 contract's valuation is hard to determine, expected to follow the 12 contract [3][14] - The 04 contract is a off - season contract, suggest a "sell - on - rallies" strategy due to greater supply pressure next year [3][14] Group 6: European Line Quotation - This week, downstream is booking November (week 45) space. In early November, PA cut prices the most to 1700 - 1900 dollars, GEMINJ to 2100 - 2200, OA to 2250 dollars, with an average of about 2050 dollars (equivalent to 1430 points) [3][14] Group 7: News - On 10/31, Israel's attacks on Gaza hit the cease - fire agreement. The cease - fire has been in place for three weeks but key issues remain unsolved [3][14] - On 11/1, Qatar warned that Gaza may fall into a "neither war nor peace" situation [4][15] - On 11/3, Houthi rebels said they would strongly respond to any Israeli aggression [4][15]