格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 4 月 11 日星期五 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 父易俗询贷俗: 200192 | | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周四夜盘甲醇主力合约期货价格上涨 4 元/吨至 2397 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货 | | | | | 价格上涨 55 元/吨至 2520 元/吨。多头持仓减少 25484 手至 28.05 万手，空头持仓 | | | | | 减少 24959 手至 29.29 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 88.24%，环比上涨 3.5%。海外甲醇开工率 75.09%， | | | | | 环比上涨 2.34%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 56.98 万吨，较上一期数据减少 4.63 ...

上期所原油期货2405合约夜盘收跌2.93%，报467.60元人民币/桶。 沪金夜盘收涨0.58%，沪银收涨0.39%。 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: Iran's methanol shipments are low, and there is not enough time until the 05 contract. It is currently expected that inventory will decline to a seasonal low by the end of April. Be vigilant if Iran's subsequent shipments still fall short of expectations. Assuming normal imports and Shenghong's shutdown in May, inventory will accumulate. However, the low inventory at the end of April will still influence trading. If there is an unexpected supply gap in the 05 contract, the low - inventory situation will continue, providing a safety margin for long positions [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is at a neutral level compared to the same period. Upstream inventory increased during the holiday, and coal - chemical inventory also rose. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 05 contract basis is +300 in North China and +300 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 400, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differentials are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. Domestic linear production increased month - on - month in February. Pay attention to US price quotes and the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [1]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The upstream inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina and the mid - stream inventory increased during the holiday. In terms of valuation, the basis is +10, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. There are no reports of large - scale export transactions. The non - standard price differential is neutral, and the markets in Europe and America are stable. PDH profit is around - 600, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The draw production ratio is neutral. There are few known maintenance plans in the future, and supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Current downstream orders are average, with neutral raw material inventory and slightly high finished - product inventory. Under the background of over - capacity, the 05 contract is expected to face significant pressure. To relieve the pressure, there needs to be a significant increase in exports or monthly maintenance of 2 million tons of PDH plants [1]. - **PVC**: The basis has strengthened to 05 - 230, and the factory - pickup basis is - 430. Downstream operations are seasonal, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventory has started to decline. With concentrated spring maintenance, the operating rate is expected to reach 75% temporarily. In the second quarter, pay attention to the scale of spring maintenance after profit compression. Export orders are fair. The macro - policies in March did not exceed expectations. Coal prices are stable, the cost of semi - coke is weakening, and it may be difficult for calcium carbide to expand profits as PVC plants undergo maintenance. The FOB price for caustic soda exports is 440. Pay attention to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 300. Currently, the static inventory is at a high level, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [1]. 3) Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From March 31 to April 7, the price of power coal futures remained at 801, while the Jiangsu spot price dropped from 2612 to 2505, and the daily change on April 7 was - 75. Other regional spot prices also showed varying degrees of decline. The CFR China price remained at 283 on April 7, with a daily change of 0. The import profit was 116, and the daily change was 0. The main - contract basis was 95, with a daily change of 10, and the MTO profit on the futures market was - 1031, with a daily change of 83 [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From March 31 to April 7, the price of Northeast Asia ethylene dropped from 855 to 845, with a daily change of - 10. The price of North China LL dropped from 7700 to 7550, with a daily change of - 150. The main - contract futures price dropped from 7669 to 7320, with a daily change of - 370. The basis was 100, with a daily change of 70. The two - oil inventory remained at 76, and the number of warehouse receipts was 450, with no daily change [1]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From March 31 to April 7, the price of Shandong propylene dropped from 6600 to 6600 (with a decline during the period), and the daily change on April 7 was - 150. The price of Northeast Asia propylene dropped from 800 to 790, with a daily change of - 10. The price of East China PP dropped from 7300 to 7255, with a daily change of - 80. The main - contract futures price dropped from 7313 to 7197, with a daily change of - 151. The basis was 30, with a daily change of 50. The two - oil inventory remained at 76, and the number of warehouse receipts was 1950, with no daily change [1]. PVC - **Price Data**: From March 31 to April 7, the price of Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2700, and the price of Shandong caustic soda dropped from 897 to 856, with a daily change of - 20. The price of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China dropped from 4980 to 4900, with a daily change of - 110. The basis of high - end deliverable products was - 120, with a daily change of 40 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Near the main contract roll - over node, be vigilant about large - scale fluctuations in soda ash and glass prices [1] - Soda ash supply has recovered, and the inventory accumulation rate has increased. Glass production and sales are okay, but terminal demand is poor, and market sentiment is cautious [4][57] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Price - On April 3, 2025, the 2504, 2505, and 2509 futures contracts of soda ash were priced at 1389, 1381, and 1420 respectively, with a week - on - week change of - 1, - 12, and - 19. The spot prices of heavy soda ash in different regions also showed some fluctuations [6] - The main contract basis was - 10 [6] Supply - The overall capacity utilization rate increased from 82.38% to 85.09%. The weekly output increased from 69.02 million tons to 71.30 million tons, a rise of 3.30%. The heavy - soda production increased by 5.45%, and the light - soda production increased by 0.84% [7] - Many enterprises had device maintenance. For example, Shandong Haitian started maintenance on October 21, 2024, and the end time was undetermined [25] Demand - The daily output of float glass increased slightly by 0.13%, and the daily output of photovoltaic glass increased by 1.75%. The apparent demand for light - soda decreased by 4.33% [7] Inventory - The total inventory of soda ash increased by 4.38% to 170.14 million tons. The heavy - soda inventory increased by 7.54%, and the light - soda inventory increased by 1.42%. The social inventory decreased by 2.81% [7] Profit - The profit of the dual - alkali method decreased by 13.00% to 184.1, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method decreased by 95.00% to - 101.81 [7] Glass Price - On April 3, 2025, the 2504, 2505, and 2509 futures contracts of glass were priced at 1198, 1198, and 1226 respectively, with a week - on - week change of - 8, 1, and - 24. The main contract basis was - 38 [55] Supply - The capacity utilization rate was 75.42%, with a slight decrease of 0.2429. The daily output increased from 15.83 million tons to 15.85 million tons, and the weekly output increased from 110.83 million tons to 110.88 million tons [56] Demand - The apparent demand remained unchanged. Due to some regional sentiment, policy superposition, and price advantages of some enterprises, the downstream procurement enthusiasm increased, and the sales of some enterprises improved [56] Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 2% to 6575.7 million heavy boxes, and the inventory of Shahe traders decreased by 9% to 420 million heavy boxes [56] Profit - The profit of natural - gas production increased by 4%, the profit of coal - gas production increased by 14%, and the profit of petroleum - coke production increased by - 123% [56] Potential Factors Soda Ash - Potential positive factors: Macroeconomic policies and commodity market sentiment boost, unexpected device maintenance or load reduction, and energy - consumption policies [8] - Potential negative factors: Significant inventory accumulation in soda - ash plants, unexpected cold - repair of float and photovoltaic glass, and new production devices coming into operation [8] Glass - Potential positive factors: Macroeconomic policies boost the commodity market sentiment, and demand shows seasonal improvement [57] - Potential negative factors: The demand in the "Golden March and Silver April" period falls short of expectations [57] Market Outlook Soda Ash - The supply is expected to increase steadily, which will put some pressure on prices. The soda - ash plants will face the pressure of high - level inventory accumulation [7][8] Glass - The supply will remain stable, and the downstream will enter the digestion stage after this round of replenishment. The sustainability of mid - stream inventory replenishment needs further tracking [57]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in oil prices due to the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with WTI crude oil falling below $70 and Brent crude experiencing significant drops [1]. Market Sentiment - There is a strong bearish sentiment in the market, with some analysts predicting a potential shift towards a short-selling trend in oil [2]. - Domestic investors cannot directly invest in foreign oil but can focus on domestic futures like SC crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt, which have also weakened alongside international oil prices [2]. Futures Trading Apps Overview - The article reviews five futures trading applications that are beneficial for investors in the current market environment [3]. 1. Sina Finance App - Offers comprehensive global market coverage and real-time data updates, particularly for Brent crude oil and other international commodities [4]. - Integrates financial news and market analysis, helping users capture event-driven trading opportunities [4]. - Provides regular market analysis reports and live courses for mid to long-term investors [4]. 2. Tonghuashun Futures - A versatile platform catering to both novice and experienced investors, supporting real-time data and trading across major domestic futures exchanges [9]. - Features smart analysis tools and community interaction for strategy sharing [10]. 3. Wenhua Finance - Known for its professional-level quantitative trading support, allowing users to automate complex strategies [11][12]. - Offers mobile functionality for seamless trading and data synchronization [13]. 4. Jinshi Data - Focuses on news-driven trading with real-time alerts for key financial events, aiding investors in preemptive positioning [15]. - Provides visual data representation and sentiment indicators to assist in trend analysis [16]. 5. Dongfang Caifu Futures - Creates a community-driven investment ecosystem, integrating news, trading, and social interaction [18]. - Covers a wide range of global markets and facilitates cross-market arbitrage analysis [19].