Group 1 - Emerging market currencies have declined for the sixth consecutive day due to strong U.S. manufacturing data and hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, which have further pressured expectations for interest rate cuts [1][4] - The focus is shifting to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, where he may reiterate the limited impact of tariffs on inflation while acknowledging a softening labor market, reinforcing market interest rate expectations [4] - The Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President, Loretta Mester, stated that she would not support a rate cut if a decision were needed tomorrow, leading to a decline in the overall performance of emerging market currencies to the lowest level since early August [4] Group 2 - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index saw a slight rebound of 0.1%, ending a two-day decline caused by a drop in U.S. tech stocks, while the bond market showed mixed results [6] - The Hungarian forint led the decline among currencies due to escalating rumors regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while the Brazilian real and Mexican peso remained strong against the dollar [6] - In the geopolitical arena, former President Trump indicated support for Ukraine to launch more counterattacks against Russia, suggesting a potential shift in U.S. policy, which could impact risk assets [7]

Core Viewpoint - New Zealand's latest security report targets China, claiming it poses significant national security threats through foreign interference and espionage activities [1][2] Group 1: Security Report Findings - The New Zealand Security Intelligence Service released a report stating that the country faces its most severe national security challenges, particularly from foreign interference and espionage, with a specific focus on threats from China [1] - The report accuses several countries, including China, Russia, and Iran, of attempting to influence New Zealand's internal affairs through secretive or deceptive activities [1] - It describes China as a particularly "confident and powerful" actor in the region, demonstrating a willingness and capability to conduct intelligence activities against New Zealand's national interests [1] Group 2: Government Response - In response to the report, the New Zealand government announced a budget of NZD 2.7 billion to strengthen its defense capabilities [1] - The report marks the third annual national security assessment by New Zealand's intelligence agencies, which have previously made similar unfounded accusations against China [1] Group 3: Chinese Embassy's Reaction - The Chinese Embassy in New Zealand condemned the report as baseless and a form of foreign interference, asserting that it aims to create obstacles in the development of bilateral relations [2] - The embassy's spokesperson emphasized that such accusations are reminiscent of previously fabricated claims against China and are intended to sow distrust among individuals and organizations engaged in China-New Zealand cooperation [2] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry urged New Zealand to cease spreading falsehoods and to focus on fostering healthy and stable bilateral relations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by former U.S. President Donald Trump to personally participate in the development of a super oil field in Pakistan is not merely an energy business deal but a significant geopolitical maneuver that could reshape regional dynamics and influence global power structures [1]. Group 1: Pakistan's Economic Situation - Pakistan's economy is under severe pressure, with foreign exchange reserves dropping below $10 billion, barely covering 30 days of import needs, and external debt reaching $1.3 trillion, including approximately $300 billion owed to China [3]. - The discovery of a giant oil field in southwestern Pakistan, estimated to contain 227 billion barrels of oil and 16 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, positions Pakistan as the fourth-largest oil reserve holder globally, surpassing Iran [3][5]. - The oil field primarily consists of shale oil, which is challenging to extract due to high technical requirements, necessitating advanced technology that Pakistan currently lacks [5]. Group 2: U.S.-Pakistan Cooperation - Pakistan's decision to collaborate with the U.S. for oil field development is driven by the need for advanced technology and immediate cash flow, as U.S. energy capital offers billions in cash, payable in Pakistani rupees [5][6]. - Trump's involvement aims to leverage U.S. technological advantages in the South Asian energy landscape, with potential implications for India's energy security, as Pakistan's oil could be sold to India, creating a strategic leverage point [7]. Group 3: Infrastructure Challenges - The large-scale development of shale oil requires significant investment in infrastructure, including power, pipelines, and ports, which could cost several billion dollars, posing a challenge given Pakistan's current infrastructure limitations [9]. - Many critical components of Pakistan's infrastructure, particularly the electricity grid, have been developed with Chinese involvement, which may complicate U.S. efforts to efficiently extract and transport oil [9]. Group 4: China's Strategic Position - China maintains a strategic advantage in the energy transport sector, as the key port for oil exports, Gwadar Port, is operated by Chinese enterprises, which could impact the efficiency of U.S. oil exports [10]. - Pakistan's defense needs are increasingly tied to its energy development, with reports of Pakistan planning to purchase advanced fighter jets from China, indicating a deeper strategic partnership [12]. - A "oil-for-debt" arrangement is being pursued, where a portion of the oil produced will be used to repay debts to China, ensuring a stable supply of oil for China while alleviating Pakistan's immediate cash flow issues [14]. Group 5: Long-term Implications - China's approach includes transferring shale oil extraction technology to Pakistan and establishing training centers, fostering long-term energy development capabilities in Pakistan [16]. - The ongoing competition for the oil field represents a complex geopolitical struggle, with the U.S. holding technological advantages but facing infrastructure constraints, while China leverages its existing investments and strategic relationships to secure its interests [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economic growth is stable with progress, the liquidity environment is loose, and corporate profit expectations are repaired. In the market, small and medium - cap stocks lead the rise, and the growth style is dominant. Attention should be paid to the short - term key pressure level fluctuations and use options to build hedging transactions [2]. - The crude oil market has a complex situation. The market speculates on the Fed's September interest rate cut, but there are concerns about US summer demand and OPEC+ may accelerate production increase. The medium - and long - term price center of gravity is still weak [3]. - The gold market is affected by macro - economic and geopolitical factors. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, but the strong economic data boosts the US dollar and weakens the gold's safe - haven premium. Attention should be paid to the support near $3311 per ounce [4]. - The silver price has fallen recently, affected by the cooling of geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment and investors' profit - taking. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance at the $37 per ounce integer mark [6]. - For chemical products, the cost of PTA is weakly supported by oil prices, and the supply - demand expectation is weak in the medium term, but there is an expectation of demand improvement. Ethylene glycol has a good fundamental situation and fluctuates with the cost end. The fundamentals of PVC, PP, plastic, etc. have no obvious improvement and fluctuate with market sentiment [7][8][9][11][13]. - In the agricultural products market, the corn price is under pressure due to factors such as abundant supply and weak downstream demand, but it rebounds in the short term. The peanut price is affected by the expected increase in planting area and is in a weak position in the short term. The cotton price is affected by domestic and foreign supply - demand situations and shows a weak shock [20][22][23]. - In the metal market, the copper market is affected by global and domestic factors, and attention should be paid to the direction choice after the convergence. The aluminum market is in a shock trend, and the alumina price is under pressure. The casting aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price to fluctuate, and the lithium carbonate price is affected by cost, supply, and demand and is dominated by sentiment in the short term [29][30][32][33][34]. - In the black market, the stainless - steel, rebar, and hot - rolled coil prices are in a weak shock in the short term due to factors such as cost support weakening and weak demand. The iron ore price may decline in the short term, and the coking coal and coke prices may also fluctuate downward [36][37][38][39][41]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Domestic economic growth is stable with progress, the liquidity environment is loose, and corporate profit expectations are repaired. Small and medium - cap stocks lead the rise, and the growth style is dominant. Pay attention to short - term key pressure level fluctuations and use options to build hedging transactions [2]. Crude Oil - The market speculates on the Fed's September interest rate cut, and the weakening US dollar provides some support. However, there are concerns about US summer demand, and OPEC+ may accelerate production increase. The medium - and long - term price center of gravity is still weak. WTI main contract should pay attention to the support near $62 - 63 per barrel [3]. Gold - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September with an 86.1% probability, but strong economic data boosts the US dollar and weakens the gold's safe - haven premium. Pay attention to the support near $3311 per ounce [4]. Silver - The silver price has fallen recently, affected by the cooling of geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment and investors' profit - taking. Pay attention to the performance at the $37 per ounce integer mark [6]. Chemicals PTA - The cost is weakly supported by oil prices, and the supply - demand expectation is weak in the medium term. The inventory days are decreasing, and the production capacity change is not significant. There is an expectation of demand improvement in the downstream. Pay attention to the breakthrough of the resistance level at 4800 yuan per ton [7]. Ethylene Glycol - The domestic supply turns loose after the restart of coal - to - ethylene glycol plants. The inventory has a slight increase, but imports may decrease. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. It fluctuates with the cost end [8]. PVC - The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The social inventory has increased. The fundamentals have no obvious improvement and fluctuate with market sentiment [9][10]. PP - The production capacity utilization rate has a slight increase, and the output has increased. The downstream average start - up rate has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The fundamentals have no obvious driving force and fluctuate with market sentiment [11][12]. Plastic - The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the downstream start - up rate has increased slightly. The inventory has changed from a downward trend to an upward trend. The fundamentals have no obvious improvement and fluctuate with market sentiment [13]. Soda Ash - The supply has increased slightly, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. The market is affected by many news, and it is recommended to use a wide - range shock thinking in the short term [14]. Glass - The supply has a narrow - range fluctuation, the demand is weak, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. Affected by environmental protection restrictions, it is recommended to use a wide - range shock thinking in the short term [16]. Rubber - The rubber price is affected by supply and demand. The supply is expected to be loose, and the downstream demand is affected by trade barriers. Pay attention to the resonance market with other domestic varieties and the pressure above the main contract [18]. Methanol - The futures price has increased, the inventory has increased, the supply has increased slightly, and the demand has decreased. There is a prominent supply - demand contradiction. The cost provides some support, and the price fluctuates in a range [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - The US corn production exceeds expectations, and the domestic supply is abundant. The downstream demand is weak, but it rebounds in the short term due to the influence of other agricultural product sectors [20][21]. Peanut - The domestic peanut planting area is expected to increase. The new peanuts are about to be listed, and the old - crop inventory is being consumed. The current supply - demand is weak, and the price is supported by the strength of the oil category [22]. Cotton - The US Department of Agriculture's report is positive, but the domestic new - year cotton supply is expected to be abundant. The short - term supply is tight before the new cotton is launched, but there is a negative impact from the expected increase in import quotas. The price is in a weak shock [23]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, it is affected by trade policies and weather. Domestically, the supply pressure is prominent, but there is an expectation of supply shortage in the fourth quarter. The price may test the upper pressure level in the short term [24]. Soybean Oil - The import cost provides support, and the domestic supply pressure is large. The demand is driven by festivals. The price is in a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to the lower support level [25][26]. Live Pigs - The supply will remain high in the short term, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price fluctuates weakly and may fluctuate in a range in the short term [27]. Eggs - The supply pressure is significant, and the egg - laying hen inventory is high. The short - term price is boosted by festival preparations, but the upward driving force is insufficient. The current futures price valuation is low [28]. Metals Shanghai Copper - The copper market is affected by global and domestic factors. The global inventory transfer is coming to an end, and domestic policies boost market sentiment. Pay attention to the direction choice after the convergence of the price triangle [29]. Shanghai Aluminum - The supply is stable, and the demand is affected by the off - season and high prices. The inventory has increased, and it may continue to fluctuate in the range of 20300 - 21000 yuan per ton [30][31]. Alumina - The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory has increased. The main contract may be in a weak shock in the short term [32]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The cost provides support, the supply is in surplus, and the demand is affected by the off - season. The inventory is at a relatively high level, and it follows the aluminum price to fluctuate [33]. Lithium Carbonate - The cost is strongly supported, the supply pressure has weakened, and the demand is resilient. The futures price has a flash - crash limit - down, and it may fill the previous gap in the short term [34]. Industrial Silicon - The supply has a slight increase, and the demand structure is differentiated. The fundamentals are under pressure and fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [35]. Polysilicon - The supply is increasing, and the demand is under pressure. The price is in a wide - range shock in the short term [36]. Black Stainless Steel - The cost support has weakened, the supply has increased slightly, and the demand in the off - season is not good. The price is in a weak shock in the short term [36]. Rebar - The "anti - involution" policy effect is reflected, the cost support has weakened, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. The price is in a high - level weak shock in the short term [37]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Similar to rebar, the cost support has weakened, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory has accumulated. The price changes from a single - side rise to a high - level shock [38]. Iron Ore - The supply pressure has increased, the demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory is at a high level. The main contract may decline in the short term [39][40]. Coal - For coking coal, the supply recovery is slow, and the demand has weakened marginally. For coke, the demand is supported by high - level iron - water production, but the inventory removal rate has slowed down. The prices of coking coal and coke may decline in the short term [41].

一样的行情，不一样的指导，不一样的人生。新手的特点就是不懂技术，盲目进场。他们每次交易只考虑一个问题：认为只要预判了市场涨跌就可以去做这 笔交易。这种重方向、轻位置的做法使得交易者一败涂地。其实，顺势而为的"势"跟"方向"是有很大差别的，因为市场的运动方向呈现震荡的形态运行，而 市场的趋势往往是全局性的。在我这里，我能做的是帮你合理的把控仓位，利用支撑和阻力位下单，让每一单有理可依，有迹可循。买卖点位不应该是随意 进场，请对自己的资金负责。如果你对行情真的无法把握，可以前来找到我，多一个分析师对你来说没有任何损失，永远记住一句话，专业的人做专业的 事，一切实战只为盈利，合作只为双赢。 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 黄金消息面解析：周三（8月20日）美联储将发布上一次货币政策会议纪要；周五，美联储主席鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上发表主旨演讲。市场期 待从中获取明确的货币政策信号，尤其是在8月初非农就业数据意外疲软及上周生产者价格指数（PPI）显示通胀回升后，投资者急需厘清美联储的利率路 径。专家分析指出，会议纪要或暴露美联储内部政策分歧，而鲍威尔的讲话可能为降息预期提供关键线索，进而影响黄金价格走势。美联储会议纪 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the US-China trade negotiations are complicated by underlying geopolitical tensions, with the US attempting to leverage issues unrelated to trade to gain an advantage [1][5][12] - The US is reportedly using China's dealings with Russia and Iran as a bargaining chip, indicating a strategy that goes beyond trade discussions [5][6] - The article highlights that the US's approach may backfire, as China is no longer intimidated and is actively seeking to strengthen ties with Europe [11][12] Group 2 - The trade war has significantly impacted US companies, with a report indicating that tariffs on China have cost American businesses over $50 billion annually [8] - The article notes that China's manufacturing value-added accounts for 31% of the global total, showcasing its strong position in the global supply chain [8] - The US's attempts to pressure China may lead to a shift in supply chains, with Chinese companies looking to strengthen ties with ASEAN and the EU [9][10] Group 3 - The recent closed-door meeting between EU and Chinese leaders resulted in important consensus, indicating a growing partnership that may exclude US influence [10][11] - European leaders are increasingly asserting their independence from the US, with statements indicating a refusal to be treated as subordinates [11][12] - The article suggests that the trade war initiated by the US has inadvertently catalyzed closer cooperation between China and Europe, challenging US dominance [11][12]

中国跟印度之间是生态位的竞争，是不可能调和的，这也是以前美西方一直看重并拉拢印度的原因，印度当然也知道中国是自己最大的对手，在关税战刚 开始的时候，印度人就大呼：印度的机会来了。 趁着美国跟中国搞关税战，那边印度就着手想在边境搞事，没有直接对中国发起挑战，而是把目光瞄向了巴基斯坦，想通过打击巴基斯坦来切断中国的一 带一路，配合美国的打压最终让印度替代中国成为世界工厂。 这个计策很是毒辣，只不过印巴空战给了印度当头一棒，实际上不光空军，印度的陆军也遭到了重创，眼看就要大输特输，特朗普跳出来做了和事佬，印 度的损失并不太大，但这次失利对印度打击很大。 首先意味着印度全面被巴基斯坦压制，既然无法突破巴基斯坦，那牵制中国就成了笑话，全世界都看到了印度那孱弱的实力，也失去了仅有的一点统战价 值，美国不再对印度有任何客气，而是选择对印度发起关税战。 前几天高志凯教授在接受印媒访谈的时候给印度戴了几顶高帽，并告诉他们：既然中国行，那印度也行。鼓励他们勇敢反抗美国的关税战，印度现在都开 始大力抵制美国货并提倡买国货。 不过就印度的实力根本扛不住美国的关税压力，于是印度又想借中国来打牌，一是做给美国看，二是想从中国这里占点便宜 ...

Group 1: Pipeline Explosion and Immediate Impact - The strategic attack on the Druzhba oil pipeline was a meticulously planned operation, resulting in a significant reduction of oil supply to Europe by 270,000 barrels per day [4] - Hungary's reliance on this pipeline is critical, with 65% of its crude oil supply dependent on it, leading to potential shutdowns of its only refinery, the Danube Refinery [4] - In retaliation, Hungary announced plans to cut off electricity exports to Ukraine, which constitutes 65% of Ukraine's imported electricity [4] Group 2: Air Strikes and Military Strategy - The Russian Tu-95MS strategic bombers launched airstrikes targeting Ukrainian military infrastructure, including the Kremenchuk Mechanical Plant and Dnipro oil storage base [6] - Each bomber was equipped with 8 Kh-101 cruise missiles, capable of striking targets with high precision [6] - The effectiveness of the Russian missile strikes was highlighted by an 87% penetration rate, resulting in the destruction of 8 oil storage tanks [8] Group 3: Western Alliances and Security Commitments - The disintegration of Western security commitments was evident as Ukraine's expectations for robust support from allies were unmet, leading to a perception of fragility in the alliance [10] - The U.S. proposed limited military support, including F-16 fighter jets, but with restrictions that prevent attacks on Russian territory [11] - Germany's reluctance to engage militarily and its continued energy ties with Russia, including a secret contract for gas imports, reflect the complexities of Western alliances [11] Group 4: Modern Warfare Dynamics - The conflict has evolved into a multi-dimensional warfare scenario, impacting energy supplies and infrastructure significantly [13] - Ukraine's energy deficit has reached 32% of peak load, necessitating rolling blackouts, while Hungary's threat to cut 800 MW of electricity could affect 500,000 households [15] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with neighboring countries like Poland and Slovakia reconsidering their support and energy negotiations with Russia [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Oscillating weakly [4][8] - Asphalt: Oscillating weakly [4][9] - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating weakly [4][10] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating weakly [4][11] - Methanol: Oscillating [21][22] - Urea: Oscillating strongly [4][23] - Ethylene glycol: Oscillating [16][17] - PX: Oscillating [12] - PTA: Oscillating [13][14] - Short - fiber: Oscillating [18][20] - Bottle chips: Oscillating [19] - PP: Oscillating weakly [4][25][26] - Propylene: Oscillating [26][27] - Plastic: Oscillating weakly [4][24] - Pure benzene: Oscillating [14][15] - Styrene: Oscillating [15][16] - PVC: Oscillating cautiously and weakly [4][29] - Caustic soda: Oscillating [30] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil and coal prices are both weak, dragging down the chemical industry. Urea rises against the trend due to improved export expectations. Investors should approach oil - chemical products with an oscillating and weakly - biased mindset, using the 5 - day moving average as a stop - loss point [2][3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - Accumulation pressure continues, and geopolitical disturbances should be monitored. API data shows a decline in US crude and gasoline inventories last week. Globally, OPEC+ production increases have led to a counter - seasonal accumulation of on - land crude inventories. Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with attention to short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations [8] 3.1.2 Asphalt - The asphalt futures price of 3500 may change from support to pressure. EIA has significantly lowered oil price expectations, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict may drive the geopolitical premium to decline. The supply tension has eased, and demand remains unoptimistic [9] 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Despite the attack on Russian refineries, high - sulfur fuel oil oscillates weakly. EIA's adjustment of oil price and production expectations, along with increased supply and weak demand, contribute to the weak trend [10] 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices oscillate weakly following crude oil. It is affected by factors such as shipping demand decline, green energy substitution, and increased supply pressure [11] 3.1.5 Methanol - Cautiously monitor long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts. Methanol futures prices oscillate. The port inventory has increased, and downstream olefins prices are under pressure. There may be long - position opportunities in the far - month due to expected overseas shutdowns [21][22] 3.1.6 Urea - Export expectations are good, but transactions are cautious. The improvement in China - India relations promotes the upward trend. The market sentiment was temporarily stagnant but was reignited by the news of China - India relations [22][23] 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol - Supply and demand both increase, and there is support at the lower price level. Domestic large - scale plants are restarting and having short - term shutdowns, and demand is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons [16] 3.1.8 PX - There is short - term support at the lower level. The supply - demand pattern is relatively stable, and downstream demand shows signs of improvement [12] 3.1.9 PTA - It is looking for a direction in oscillation. The short - term trading logic lies in ongoing supply maintenance and expected demand improvement [13] 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - It fluctuates following upstream costs. Supply - demand fundamentals change little, and sales have slightly recovered, but the increase is limited [18] 3.1.11 Bottle Chips - There is some cost support, but its own driving force is limited. The price mainly follows raw materials, and the processing fee is compressed [19] 3.1.12 PP - Good refinery profits suppress valuation, and PP oscillates weakly. Oil prices are weak, propane prices are low, supply is increasing, and demand is in the peak - off - peak transition period [25][26] 3.1.13 Propylene (PL) - PL follows PP to oscillate and decline in the short term. Supply is abundant, but downstream follow - up is insufficient [26] 3.1.14 Plastic - Fundamental support is limited, and plastic oscillates weakly. Oil prices are weak, and the supply side has pressure [24] 3.1.15 Pure Benzene - It has insufficient driving force and oscillates within a narrow range. Geopolitical tensions are easing, and downstream profits are declining [14][15] 3.1.16 Styrene - Peak - season stocking has begun, but demand is limited. There are some positive factors such as improved pure benzene market and downstream stocking, but negative factors like increased supply and limited demand are more prominent [15][16] 3.1.17 PVC - Anti - dumping measures pressure demand, and PVC is cautiously weak. Upstream autumn maintenance may reduce production, and export expectations are under pressure [29] 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - Market sentiment is poor, dragging down the price. Fundamentals are marginally improving, but market sentiment is still affected [30] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - The report provides data on inter - period spreads, basis, and inter - variety spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [32][33][35] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report mentions monitoring for methanol, urea, styrene, etc., specific data summaries are not provided in the given text [36][48][60]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The gold market is in a low - volatility oscillation, waiting for the Fed meeting minutes and the follow - up progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. The Fed's policy path and geopolitical developments are expected to make gold oscillate and accumulate strength [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - Trump hopes Putin will end the Ukraine war but admits Putin may not want an agreement. Trump proposes "air support" for Ukraine's post - war security and arranges bilateral talks between Russian and Ukrainian presidents. The 24th China - India border issue special representative meeting was held in New Delhi. US July building permits were 1354,000, lower than expected, while new housing starts were 1428,000, higher than expected [2] Price Logic - On Tuesday, gold prices oscillated with low volatility. US new housing starts and building permits were divergent, and the lower - than - expected building permits may imply limited sustainability of the strong new housing starts. Last week's US PPI had the largest monthly increase since 2022, suppressing the expectation of a 50 - basis - point rate cut. US retail sales increased 0.5% month - on - month in July, in line with expectations, but inflation expectations rose and consumer confidence fell [3] Future Outlook - Before Powell's departure, his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium may balance inflation, employment, politics, and economy, with vague monetary policy signals. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks have not resolved the core differences, mainly due to territorial disputes and Russia's opposition to Western military intervention. Attention should be paid to Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting and geopolitical conflicts. The weekly London gold spot is expected to be in the range of [3300, 3500], and the weekly London silver spot in the range of [36, 40] [4][7][8] Index Information - On August 19, 2025, the comprehensive commodity index was 2223.20, down 0.36%; the commodity 20 index was 2469.40, down 0.26%; the industrial product index was 2256.94, down 0.47%. The precious metal index was 2703.64, with a daily decline of 0.47%, a 5 - day decline of 0.61%, a 1 - month decline of 1.52%, and a year - to - date increase of 22.20% [47][49]