中国的外贸卖家们一直以来都非常灵活，会经常根据市场变化来调整策略，但这次的风波让他们开始重新思考外贸行业的价值 文｜ 《财经》研究员 黄思韵 记者 刘以秦 编辑｜刘以秦 当地时间5月12日，中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布, 双边关税水平将大幅降低。联合声明称，在5月14日前，美方实际对华税率将从145%降至30%，中 方对美税率将从125%降至10%，为90天缓冲期内的进一步谈判奠定基础。 此前，美国3月对中国加征20%关税。4月，美国政府在此前单边加征关税的基础上，又对华加征"对等关税"，随后美方轮番升级关税措施，"对等关税"税 率从第一轮的34%先后提升至84%、125%。 5月12日，跨境卖家王林（化名）看到中美双方都大幅下调关税的消息，松了一口气。他和同行们交流达成共识，打算抓紧接下来90天的窗口期，加速往 美国发货，先把货备到本地。 王林已经将今年的工作重点放在拓展欧洲市场上，但目前美国仍然是主要市场之一。"不能把身家性命都绑在特朗普的嘴上，这太危险了。"他说。由于之 后的政策走向依然存在不确定性，他在一边发货的同时，一边往其他市场寻找新机会。 开有美国外贸工厂的浙江老板陈烨（化名）同样谨慎。收到关 ...

中美会谈的具体成果出来了，美国竟然没整幺蛾子，痛快地取消了对华高达91%的关税。 主，中美两场会谈就达成了协议） 北京时间5月12日下午，中美发布联合声明，通报此次在日内瓦会谈的成果。 果不其然，美方这次作出了巨大的让步。 根据中方发布的通告，双方承诺在5月14日之前，采取以下措施。 一是美方将修改4月2日发布的行政令中，对中国商品征收的34%关税，其中24%实施暂停90天，保留剩 余的10%； 二是美方将取消4月8日至4月9日，对中国商品征收的共计91%的关税； 相应的，我们也修改了对美国反制征收的34%关税，其中24%关税实施暂停90天，保留10%，同时取消 对美国征收的共计91%关税； 另外，我们还将采取必要措施，暂停或取消，自4月2日起对美国实施的非关税反制措施，也就是限制7 类中重金属对美出口、减少对美国影片的进口等反制措施。 不过中方并未说明哪些措施会取消，哪些会暂停，还得等进一步的消息披露。 （贝森特做 （中美联合 要知道，英国对美国还是贸易逆差国，却依然被逼得增加对美进口，那必然会继续挤压英国国内的农业 和制酒业生存空间。 的协议成了笑话） 声明内容） 总得来说，我们在反制美国时相当对等，美国 ...

商务部新闻发言人表示，双方一致同意建立中美经贸磋商机制，就经贸领域各自关切保持密切沟通，开 展进一步磋商。 据商务部网站消息，当地时间5月10日至11日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头 人、美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔在瑞士日内瓦举行中美经贸高层会谈。双方围绕落实今年1 月17日中美元首通话重要共识进行了坦诚、深入、具有建设性的沟通，在经贸领域达成一系列重要共 识。 当地时间5月12日上午9:00，双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》（下称"声明"）。 对此，商务部新闻发言人表示，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方 取消了共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方 也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税。 商务部称，这一举措符合两国生产者和消费者的期待，也符合两国利益和世界共同利益。希望美方以这 次会谈为基础，与中方继续相向而行，彻底纠正单边加税的错误做法，不断加强互利合作，维护中美经 贸关系健康、稳定、可持续发展，共同为世界经济注入更多确定性和稳定性。 美东时间4月10日，美方公布行政令，进一步提高对中国输美产品 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant concessions made by the U.S. in the recent U.S.-China tariff negotiations, resulting in a joint statement that exceeded expectations [2][3] - Both the U.S. and China agreed to cancel a cumulative 91% of tariffs imposed on each other's goods, marking a substantial reduction in trade barriers [3][4] - Additionally, both countries will suspend another 24% of tariffs for a period of 90 days, indicating a temporary easing of trade tensions [4][16] Group 2 - The U.S. decision to compromise is attributed to several factors, including domestic pressure from rising prices and declining public support for Trump's policies [6][9] - The U.S. has found that its high tariffs on China are not yielding the intended results, as China's manufacturing capabilities remain unmatched globally [9][11] - The ongoing geopolitical situation, including conflicts involving Pakistan and India, has also influenced the U.S. to seek a temporary resolution with China [12][20] Group 3 - Despite the concessions, the U.S. has not removed the additional 20% tariffs related to the fentanyl issue, indicating an ongoing imbalance in tariff rates between the two countries [14][15] - The 90-day suspension of the 24% tariffs introduces uncertainty, as these tariffs could be reinstated depending on future developments in U.S.-China relations or supply chain alternatives [16][18] - The overall conclusion is that the recent tariff negotiations signify a new starting point in U.S.-China relations, with ongoing challenges expected in the future [20]

Core Viewpoint - The 137th China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair) successfully concluded, showcasing China's commitment to maintaining global trade order amidst U.S. tariff challenges, with over 280,000 foreign buyers attending, a 17.3% increase compared to the previous session [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The Canton Fair lasted for 20 days and attracted over 280,000 foreign buyers from 219 countries and regions, marking a historical high in attendance [1]. - The fair featured approximately 31,000 participating enterprises, with nearly 900 more than the previous session, indicating sustained interest and participation [3]. - The total intended export transactions reached $25.44 billion, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase, with 60% of buyers coming from Belt and Road Initiative countries [1]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The fair's success is seen as a positive indicator of global business confidence in China's economic prospects, providing a "strong boost" to China's foreign trade development [3]. - China's goods trade in the first quarter reached 10.3 trillion yuan, a 1.3% year-on-year increase, with a notable recovery in monthly growth rates [3]. - Experts suggest that the fair's growth in transaction volume indicates a shift towards emerging markets for Chinese exports, reducing reliance on the U.S. market [4]. Group 3: Regional Cooperation - The recent ASEAN+3 finance ministers' meeting highlighted the importance of regional financial cooperation to address global uncertainties, with China expressing willingness to deepen collaboration [4][7]. - The Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization mechanism, discussed at the meeting, has a currency swap capacity of $240 billion, aimed at providing support during financial crises and emergencies [7].

5月12日下午，中美联合声明发布，中国稳稳守住底线，没让步半分，而美国居然罕见地连甩三招让利：暂停24%的关税、保留10%的"基础关税"不加码， 还直接取消了125%和145%的惩罚性关税。 这波操作，简直让人瞠目结舌，日内瓦会谈刚结束，双方不仅谈出大成果，还定了常态化磋商机制，这关税战咋就突然破冰了？美国为啥接连松口，声明背 后到底藏着什么故事呢？ 文案|编辑：清 12日下午3点，中美经贸高层会谈的联合声明如期发布，这份声明虽短，却字字千金，标志着中美从针锋相对的关税战迈向了务实合作的谈判桌，在瑞士日 内瓦刚刚结束的会谈中，双方不仅达成了重要共识，还敲定了常态化磋商机制。 更引人注目的是，美国在关税问题上接连作出三项让步：暂停对中国商品加征24%的关税，保留10%的"基础关税"未进一步加码，取消此前高达125%和 145%的惩罚性关税，中国则通过这场谈判，牢牢守住了底线。 声明一出，全球目光聚焦于这份文件背后的故事，声明简明扼要，核心内容只有两段，却清晰勾勒出中美经贸关系的一次关键转折。美国的三项让步，意味 着双方在经历了数月的紧张对峙后，终于找到了一条对话的路。而中国在谈判中展现的韧性与策略，不仅维护了自 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent joint statement from the US-China Geneva trade talks has brought relief to American businesses, particularly in the hospitality sector, allowing them to resume importing goods from China without the burden of high tariffs [1][4]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Business - The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration significantly increased costs for American businesses, with tariffs on certain goods rising from 20% to 145%, making imports financially unfeasible [2][3]. - A specific case highlighted is that of an American businessman, who faced a dilemma over whether to ship goods due to the high tariffs, which could exceed the cost of the goods themselves [3]. Group 2: Future Business Plans - The businessman had plans to transition into a professional foreign trade role, aiming to connect high-quality Chinese products with more overseas clients, but the tariff situation cast doubt on these ambitions [4]. - With the new trade agreement, there is optimism that the businessman can save over a million in tariff costs on shipments arriving in the US, allowing him to continue his plans for international trade [4]. Group 3: Upcoming Trade Forum - A trade forum titled "2025 China Enterprises Going Global Summit" is scheduled for June 28-29 in Shenzhen, focusing on strategies for emerging markets and providing a platform for resource connection and policy discussions [4].

Inventory Analysis - As of February, the overall actual inventory-to-sales ratio in the U.S. manufacturing and trade sectors is approximately 1.5 months, with manufacturers at 1.9 months, wholesalers at 1.3 months, and retailers at 1.4 months, all at low percentiles since the pandemic[2] - If assuming that the inventory of manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers only serves domestic retail sales, the overall inventory could cover about 4.2 months of sales[2] - The low inventory-to-sales ratio may indicate limited buffer space against supply-demand imbalances, potentially leading to upward pressure on inflation[2] Industry-Specific Insights - In the retail sector, the actual inventory-to-sales ratio for furniture, appliances, and consumer electronics is low at only 1 month, placing it in the 6.5% percentile since the pandemic[3] - Conversely, the inventory-to-sales ratio for motor vehicles and parts, as well as building materials, exceeds 2 months, with motor vehicles at approximately 2.5 months (88.5% percentile) and building materials at about 2 months (85.2% percentile)[3] - In manufacturing and wholesale, machinery, textile raw materials, and related products have higher inventory-to-sales ratios, all exceeding 2 months, with machinery at 2.9 months (83.6% percentile) and textile raw materials at 2.8 months (70.4% percentile)[3] PMI and Inventory Trends - As of April, the ISM manufacturing PMI inventory index decreased to 50.8% from 53.4% in March, indicating a cooling in pre-tariff stockpiling behavior[4] - The customer inventory index remains low at 46.2%, suggesting concerns about the sustainability of overall manufacturing inventory levels[4] - Among 18 manufacturing sectors, 5 reported increased inventory in April, while 8 sectors, including textiles and transportation equipment, saw declines[4]

Group 1: India-Pakistan Conflict and Military Implications - Pakistan and India have agreed to a ceasefire, which is seen as a positive development given the nuclear capabilities of both nations [1] - The recent military engagement resulted in Pakistan claiming to have shot down six Indian aircraft without any losses, showcasing the effectiveness of Chinese-made J-10 fighter jets [1] - The military conflict has led to a surge in the defense sector, with expectations of increased orders for military equipment, potentially boosting stock prices in the defense industry [1] Group 2: US-UK Trade Agreement and Its Impact - The US and UK have reached a trade agreement that reduces UK auto tariffs from 27.5% to 10%, while maintaining a minimum tax rate announced by Trump [1][2] - The agreement includes the cancellation of a 25% steel and aluminum tariff by the US, in exchange for the UK removing tariffs on $700 million worth of US ethanol products [1] - Analysts suggest that the new 10% tariff on global imports may set a precedent for other countries, indicating a challenging environment for international trade negotiations [3] Group 3: China’s Trade Strategy and Economic Resilience - China has signed a non-binding agreement with Argentine exporters to purchase approximately $900 million worth of soybeans, corn, and vegetable oil, aiming to reduce reliance on US agricultural imports [5] - Recent trade data shows that China's goods trade increased by 5.6% in April, with exports growing by 9.3% and imports by 0.8%, indicating economic resilience despite trade tensions with the US [5] - The ongoing trade negotiations with the US are expected to yield favorable outcomes for China, reinforcing its position in the global market [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - The stock market is anticipated to open positively next week, driven by a potential surge in technology stocks, which could catalyze a broader market rally [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of tariffs on U.S. inventory levels and how long these inventories can buffer against rising import costs and consumer prices [1]. Group 1: U.S. Inventory Analysis - As of February, the overall inventory-to-sales ratio in the U.S. manufacturing and trade sectors is approximately 1.5 months, with manufacturers at 1.9 months, wholesalers at 1.3 months, and retailers at 1.4 months, all at relatively low percentiles since the pandemic [4][8]. - If assuming that inventories from manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers are solely for domestic retail sales, the overall inventory could cover about 4.2 months of sales [5][9]. - The low inventory-to-sales ratios suggest limited buffering capacity against supply-demand imbalances, which could lead to upward pressure on inflation [5][9]. Group 2: Industry-Specific Inventory Insights - In the retail sector, categories such as furniture, appliances, and consumer electronics have a notably low inventory-to-sales ratio of just 1 month, placing them in the 6.5% percentile since the pandemic [13]. - Conversely, the automotive and building materials sectors have higher ratios, exceeding 2 months, indicating a more stable inventory position [13]. - In the manufacturing and wholesale sectors, categories like machinery and textiles show higher inventory-to-sales ratios, while electrical equipment remains low at around 1 month [6][14]. Group 3: PMI and Inventory Trends - The ISM manufacturing PMI inventory index fell to 50.8% in April from 53.4% in March, indicating a decrease in inventory accumulation as companies reduce stockpiling ahead of tariff implementations [17]. - The customer inventory index remains low at 46.2%, suggesting concerns about the sustainability of overall manufacturing inventory levels [17][18]. - Among 18 manufacturing sectors, 5 reported increased inventory levels in April, while 8 sectors, including textiles and transportation equipment, saw declines, reflecting a mixed inventory landscape [18].