美银Michael Hartnett团队认为，特朗普"可负担性"政治推动资金从"华尔街精英阶层"转向"主街普通民众"：小盘价值股崛起，科技巨头承压；AI叙事 从"惊叹"转向"致贫"，相关债务激增；日元与日股相关性转正预示长期牛市，但需警惕日元急升引发全球去杠杆。新兴市场和小盘股有望领跑新时代。 追风交易台消息，2月12日， 美银证券Michael Hartnett的研究团队发表研报指出，钱正在离开过去几年的明星资产。 年初至今，黄金涨了13.4%，石油涨了9.5%，国际股票涨了8.7%。美股跌了0.2%，比特币暴跌25%。 （韩国股票4周资金流入创纪录） 这背后的核心因素在于"可负担性"政治。特朗普政府正激进转向讨好"主街"（普通民众）而非"华尔街"（精英阶层）的政策。美银强调这意味着三大关键 变化： 第一，美国大盘成长股向小盘价值股的历史性轮动已经开启； 第二，AI叙事正从"AI惊叹"转向"AI致贫"，科技股面临压力； 第三，日元与日股的相关性自2005年以来首次转正，这是结构性牛市的特征。但需警惕日元升值过快（跌破145）引发全球去杠杆。 "可负担性"政治下，"主街"资产崛起 当前市场的总开关是政治对"可 ...

Core Insights - The Milan-Cortina Winter Olympics is showcasing a strong presence of global brands, particularly Chinese sponsors, marking a significant moment in sports marketing [1][7]. Group 1: Sponsorship and Advertising - Major sponsors like TCL, Alibaba, and Coca-Cola are leveraging the Olympics for extensive advertising, with TCL securing the largest outdoor billboard in Milan [1][2]. - The city has transformed into a winter Olympics-themed venue, with advertisements from various sponsors visible in public spaces, including bus stops and tram bodies [2]. - The current Winter Olympics features 12 TOP sponsors, including three from China, highlighting the increasing influence of Chinese brands in global sports [3][7]. Group 2: Services and Products Provided by Sponsors - TOP sponsors are not only providing financial support but also services, such as TCL setting up a lounge in the Olympic Village equipped with their products [4]. - Other sponsors like Alibaba and Procter & Gamble are also providing unique experiences and products for athletes, enhancing the overall Olympic experience [4]. - The use of advanced technology, such as AI and cloud services, is evident in the broadcasting and event management, with Alibaba's AI assistant deployed for operational support [9]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Market Dynamics - The TOP sponsorship program is a significant revenue source for the International Olympic Committee, with companies paying over $300 million per cycle [6]. - The financial contributions from TOP sponsors are crucial for the organization and development of Olympic events globally [5]. - TCL's market share in Italy has grown by approximately 50%, indicating the effectiveness of sports marketing in enhancing brand recognition [10]. Group 4: Changes in Sponsorship Landscape - The upcoming Paris Olympics will see a shift in the sponsorship landscape, with several long-standing sponsors exiting the TOP program, creating opportunities for new entrants [8]. - The departure of traditional sponsors reflects a broader trend of industry transformation, with a focus on new technologies and market dynamics [8]. - The increasing presence of Chinese brands in the TOP sponsorship ranks signifies a shift in global commercial power within the Olympic framework [7].

Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited a structural upward trend last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4082.07 points, remaining stable throughout the week [1] - The growth sector performed strongly, highlighted by a 3.37% increase in the STAR 50 Index, indicating robust momentum in technology and innovation themes [1] - In contrast, the value sector showed relative weakness, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI Dividend Index experiencing slight declines [1] - Internationally, the U.S. stock indices collectively fell, with the S&P 500 down 1.39%, while European markets saw moderate gains [2] - Asian markets performed strongly, with the Korean Composite Index soaring 8.21% and the Nikkei 225 rising 4.96% [2] Sector Performance - The Information Technology sector rose by 3.62%, and the Communication Services sector increased by 2.43%, showcasing strong performance [1][9] - Conversely, the Consumer Staples sector declined by 2.45%, and the Financial sector fell by 1.41%, marking the weakest performances [1][9] - The rise of AI technologies has propelled the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector, leading to accelerated sector rotation during the earnings forecast period [1][9] Fund Issuance and Performance - A total of 64 funds were launched last week, including 24 equity funds, 19 mixed funds, 8 bond funds, 2 QDII funds, and 11 FOF funds, with a total fundraising amount of 58.33 billion [1][17] - The overall performance of funds was positive, with the Wind All Fund Index rising by 0.79%, and the ordinary equity fund index increasing by 1.40% [5] - The equity funds significantly outperformed bond funds, with the equity mixed fund index rising by 1.52% [5] Bond Market Overview - The bond market sentiment was warm, with the convertible bond index leading gains, and both 10-year and 30-year government bond futures slightly rising [13] - Domestic long-term interest rates remain at historically low levels, indicating a stable bond market environment [13]

Core Insights - The Melania Trump-themed meme coin and the Trump memecoin have experienced significant declines of 36.11% and 41.55% respectively over the past month, with the World Liberty Financial also losing 43.82% of its value [1] - The downturn in the cryptocurrency market is attributed to macroeconomic factors, including the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, disappointing earnings from major tech companies, and a correction in precious metals [2] - Bitcoin has fallen nearly 50% from its peak in October, with a sell-off in early February leading to over $2.7 billion in liquidations, marking its sharpest decline since 2022 [3] Cryptocurrency Market Trends - The popularity of speculative meme coins is seen as a contributing factor to the struggles of Bitcoin and the broader crypto market [7] - Celebrity-backed cryptocurrencies, such as those associated with Eric Adams and Haliey Welch, have also led to investor losses, highlighting the risks associated with investing in such tokens [4][6] - Other popular meme coins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu are also experiencing significant volatility, indicating a broader trend of instability in the digital asset market [8] Regulatory and Market Sentiment - Criticism has been directed at the Trump administration's approach to cryptocurrency regulation, which some believe has made the market less appealing to everyday investors [3][6] - There are mixed views on Trump's crypto agenda, with some predicting Bitcoin could bottom between $58,000 and $63,000, while others argue that his policies could benefit the crypto industry [9][11]

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of the video model Seedance 2.0 has sparked widespread discussion and concern due to its ability to generate highly realistic videos from simple prompts, leading to potential misinformation issues in the digital space [2] Group 1: AI Video Generation and Public Reaction - Seedance 2.0 is capable of producing movie-quality videos with just a few prompts, creating a viral sensation on social media platforms [2] - The realistic nature of some generated content has raised concerns about the difficulty in distinguishing between real and AI-generated videos [4] Group 2: Regulatory Response to Misinformation - Authorities have taken action against accounts that publish AI-generated content without proper identification, resulting in the processing of 13,421 accounts and the removal of over 543,000 pieces of illegal information [4] - Specific cases include accounts that created misleading narratives or impersonated public figures using AI technologies for profit, which have been dealt with legally [4][5][6] Group 3: Future Measures and Community Responsibility - The regulatory body plans to maintain a strict oversight on AI-generated content lacking proper identification and encourages content creators to comply with guidelines to prevent public deception [6]

近期，市场对新一代AI工具可能颠覆相关行业的担忧从软件领域蔓延至保险、财富管理和交通运输等 板块。B Riley Wealth首席市场策略师Art Hogan表示："这就像一场'打地鼠'游戏，大家都在猜AI下一个 会摧毁什么行业。由于这项技术还很新，人们可以随意编织各种叙事，甚至认为AI最终会吞噬整个世 界。那大概不会发生，但当前市场情绪确实如此。" 投资者转向此前表现相对滞后的板块，能源、必需消费品、材料和工业板块获得更多关注。Nationwide 首席市场策略师Mark Hackett表示："目前市场领涨力量的更替已是不争的事实。这种转变正逐渐根植于 投资者的心理。" 下周，市场将聚焦多项核心资讯。美国方面将公布第四季度GDP初值、月度消费者信心调查，以及美联 储偏好的通胀指标——个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数。摩根士丹利此前将2026年美国经济增长预期上 调至2.6%，原因是纳入"更为强劲的资本支出假设"，指出与大型云计算企业支出增长相关的业务投资更 为稳定，同时警示美国经济最大风险已从贸易保护主义转为AI泡沫风险。 下周三，美联储1月货币政策会议纪要将对外公布，汇丰银行分析师指出，纪要或详细说明支持" ...

Group 1 - China will implement zero tariff measures for 53 African countries starting May 1, while promoting the signing of economic partnership agreements and expanding product access through upgraded "green channels" [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has interviewed major platform companies including Alibaba, Douyin, and Tencent, urging them to comply with the Anti-Unfair Competition Law and eliminate "involution" competition [2] - The US stock market is undergoing a significant shift, with major tech companies experiencing substantial declines; Amazon's stock has fallen for nine consecutive trading days, marking its longest losing streak since 2006, and its market value has evaporated by approximately $1.51 trillion this year [2] Group 2 - ByteDance has officially released the Doubao Model 2.0, achieving significant advancements in multimodal understanding and reasoning capabilities, while reducing reasoning costs by about an order of magnitude [3] - The China Banking and Insurance Asset Management Association reported a significant increase in the equity investment confidence index for Q1, rising to 67.55 from 58.04 year-on-year [7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to upgrade the liquor industry, targeting the cultivation of over three trillion-yuan traditional liquor production areas by 2028 [9]

曼哈顿中城的交易员们还没来得及享受情人节的预热，屏幕上那片齐刷刷的深红就已经宣告：风暴来了。道指跌超660点，纳指重挫2%，苹果一夜蒸发近 1.4万亿人民币。白银崩盘，黄金失守5000美元，连可口可乐和沃尔玛这种"养老股"反倒成了香饽饽。 但最刺眼的，不是那些数字。 而是世邦魏理仕（CBRE）两天跌掉26%——这个跌幅，上次出现还是在2008年9月，雷曼兄弟倒下的那一刻 。 十六年过去了，这一次击垮商业地产的，不是次贷衍生品，而是代码。 华尔街正在用真金白银投票，信奉一条新规则：凡是可能被AI替代的公司，先卖了再说 。 三个靶心：股价先跌给你看 这一轮恐慌绝非无差别扫射。如果你把2月第二周的美股切片放到显微镜下，会发现子弹精准飞向三个靶心。 第一个靶心：软件——从"卖铲人"变成"被埋人" 就在一个月前，AI还是软件公司的镀金神话。1月底，Anthropic发布Claude Cowork，一个能自动操作电脑完成复杂任务的AI协作者。标普500软件与服务 指数应声下跌，至今已跌15% 。 市场突然反应过来：过去两年靠"接入OpenAI"讲故事的SaaS公司，自己可能就是那个要被取代的中间商。Unity财报后暴跌2 ...

Business Performance - Rakuten Mobile surpassed the target of 10 million subscribers, achieving full year profitability at the EBITDA level of JPY 12.9 billion, a year-on-year improvement of JPY 66.7 billion [2] Financial Results - Consolidated revenue increased by 9.5% year-on-year to JPY 2.5 trillion, marking the 29th consecutive year of revenue growth [3] - The FinTech segment significantly contributed to this growth, with a year-on-year increase of 19% [3] - Consolidated non-GAAP operating income rose by JPY 99.2 billion year-on-year to JPY 106.3 billion, driven by the FinTech segment and improved losses in the Mobile segment [3] AI Initiatives - The Chief AI and Data Officer will provide an update regarding the company's AI initiatives, indicating a focus on technological advancements [1]

Business and Technology Development - Alibaba's AI application Qianwen App achieved over 10 million downloads in its first week of public testing, with the Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue continuing to grow due to AI demand [1] - The company plans to invest 380 billion yuan in cloud and AI infrastructure over the next three years, with the possibility of additional investments [1] Performance and Operating Conditions - For the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 (April to June 2025), Alibaba reported revenue of 247.65 billion yuan, with the Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue increasing by 26% year-on-year, and AI-related product revenue achieving triple-digit growth for several consecutive quarters [2] - Investors should monitor upcoming quarterly earnings releases to assess the monetization effects of AI investments [2] Strategic Advancement - Over the past four quarters, Alibaba's capital expenditure on AI and cloud infrastructure amounted to approximately 120 billion yuan, with 31.5 billion yuan spent in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, representing an 80.1% year-on-year increase [3] - The company is optimizing its capital allocation by divesting non-core assets and promoting IPOs of invested enterprises, such as MiniMax and Changxin Technology, to focus on the AI sector [3] Business Progress - Following the release of Quark AI glasses in November 2025, Alibaba continues to enhance its consumer application matrix, including the AI upgrade of Gaode Map and the transformation driven by DingTalk Agent, strengthening the synergy between AI, e-commerce, and local services [4] - These initiatives may impact future user experience and revenue structure [4]