机构：华安证券 有道业务"产模一体"战略推动应用落地 有道业务二季度实现收入14.2 亿 （13.3 亿consensus），yoy+7.2%，毛利率43.0%。有道AI 布局持续推 进，推出"子曰"教育大模型AI 创新应用，包括AI 全科学习助手"有道小P"APP、新一代虚拟人口语教练 Hi Echo 3.0 和新一代知识库问答引QAnything。有道在"产模一体"的框架下进行模型与产品的迭代升 级，实现多应用落地。 云音乐稳定运营，生态系统驱动用户转化 研究员：金荣 2Q25业绩： 25Q2，公司实现收入279.9 亿元（yoy+9.4%，qoq-3.2%）。公司二季度实现毛利180.5 亿元 （yoy+12.5%），毛利率为64.7%，同比增加1.8pct；实现调整后净利润95.3 亿元（yoy+32.0%），净利 率为34.2%，同比增加3.5pct。 长线运营游戏稳健运营，海外布局持续加深 公司二季度游戏及相关服务收入为228 亿（234 亿consensus），yoy+13.7%。二季度多款游戏周年庆版 本更新，持续发力。《逆水寒》手游推出两周年庆版本更新，登中国iOS 畅销榜第三。《七日世界》 ...

《蛋仔派对》暑期表现优异，预期 Q3 长青 游戏修复 ——网易（9999.HK）25Q2 点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 公司暴雪游戏陆续恢复运营，长青游戏《蛋仔派对》等暑期表现优异。Q3 有《命运 群星》、《暗黑破坏神 2》等新品预期将陆续上线驱动增长。我们预测公司 25~27 年归母净利润为 363/390/433 亿元（原 25~27 为 360/381/415 亿元，因根据财报上 调毛利率，下调销售费率调整盈利预测）。我们采用 SOTP 估值，给予目标价 283.69 港币/259.51 人民币（HKD/CNY=0.91），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 新游戏表现不及预期；版号审批不确定性；游戏净利率波动性较大；直播竞争加剧 | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | -6.13 | -5.16 | 7.56 | 46.55 | | 相对表现% | -4.38 | -6.53 | 1.29 | 2.84 | | 恒生指数% | -1.75 | 1.37 | 6.27 | 43.71 | | 项雯倩 ...

Core Viewpoint - NetEase's Q2 2025 financial report shows a net revenue of 27.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, but the results fell short of market expectations, leading to a stock price drop of over 10% [2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - NetEase's Q2 net revenue reached 27.9 billion yuan, with game business revenue accounting for 22.8 billion yuan [2]. - The company achieved a net profit of 8.6 billion yuan in Q2, but faces increasing pressure due to declining revenues from non-gaming products [5]. Group 2: Product Performance and Market Challenges - The company has seen fluctuations in revenue from successful new products launched in the past two years, with no major new releases this year contributing to a challenging situation [2]. - Management is focusing on the performance of older products and their expansion in overseas markets, while newer products launched in the first half of the year were not mentioned in the earnings call [2]. - The gaming market in China is becoming increasingly competitive, with major players like Tencent emphasizing the importance of content-driven games, adding pressure on NetEase [5]. Group 3: Development and Investment Issues - NetEase's high investment in game development has not yielded corresponding returns in the short term, with some high-cost projects, such as "Wanmin Changge: Three Kingdoms," being halted [3]. - The company is facing challenges with ongoing disputes over alleged plagiarism between its games, which could further impact its reputation and performance [3].

Core Insights - The Chinese gaming market reached a size of 29.084 billion yuan in July 2025, with a month-on-month growth of 8.14% and a year-on-year growth of 4.62% [1] - The growth in the gaming market is primarily driven by mobile and client games, with new and mature products contributing significantly to the revenue increase [1] Client Games Market - The client games market in China grew to 6.637 billion yuan in July 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 13.13% and a year-on-year increase of 16.56% [3] - The growth was mainly attributed to mature products, new releases, and cross-platform products, with significant contributions from titles like "斗罗大陆：猎魂世界" and "大航海时代：传说" [3] Mobile Games Market - The mobile games market size reached 21.36 billion yuan in July 2025, with a month-on-month growth of 6.36% and a year-on-year growth of 0.92% [5] - Notable performances were seen in new releases and mature products, particularly "三角洲行动" and "王者荣耀," which benefited from seasonal updates and promotional activities [5] Top Games Performance - In July 2025, the top 10 mobile games saw 70% of products maintaining or improving their rankings, with "崩坏：星穹铁道" achieving the most significant rise, climbing 39 places [7] - "三角洲行动" and "蛋仔派对" also showed notable upward trends in their rankings due to successful updates and promotional events [7] iOS Download Rankings - "三角洲行动" topped the iOS download rankings in July 2025, with new IP games like "斗罗大陆：猎魂世界" and "纸嫁衣8千子树" also making significant entries [9] - "斗罗大陆：猎魂世界" achieved strong performance, ranking first in the App Store free chart shortly after its launch [14] Overseas Market Performance - The overseas market for Chinese self-developed games generated a revenue of 1.693 billion USD in July 2025, marking a month-on-month growth of 8.2% and a year-on-year growth of 6.76% [16] - "崩坏：星穹铁道" led the revenue growth in overseas markets, supported by new content and collaborations with popular IPs [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 237.1 HKD, up from the current price of 200.2 HKD [3]. Core Views - The company reported a net revenue of 27.9 billion RMB for Q2 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 9.4%, although slightly below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 28.4 billion RMB [1]. - The gaming segment continues to show strong growth, with net revenue of 22.8 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 13.7%, but also below market expectations [1]. - Deferred revenue at the end of the period reached 17 billion RMB, up 24.6% year-over-year, indicating strong future revenue support [1]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, increasing them by 9.9% and 8.2% respectively, and introduced a new profit forecast for 2027 [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 2025 operating profit was 9.06 billion RMB, with an operating margin of 32.5%, slightly below the expected 9.35 billion RMB [1]. - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was 9.5 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 21.9%, also slightly below the expected 9.6 billion RMB [1]. - The company's gross margin improved to 64.7%, up 1.8 percentage points year-over-year, exceeding expectations [1]. Business Segments - The gaming segment's online game revenue was 22.1 billion RMB, with a year-over-year growth of 14.9%, driven by new releases [1]. - Youdao's net revenue was 1.4 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 7.3%, surpassing expectations [1]. - Cloud music revenue reached 2 billion RMB, also up 7.3% year-over-year, exceeding expectations [1]. - Innovative and other businesses saw a decline in revenue, down 17.8% year-over-year [1]. Profitability and Cost Management - Marketing expenses were 3.6 billion RMB, with a marketing expense ratio of 12.8%, indicating a recovery to historical levels [1]. - The company continues to optimize its management and R&D expenses, with management expense ratio at 3.8% and R&D expense ratio at 15.6% [1]. Valuation and Future Outlook - The report projects a 2025-2026 adjusted net profit of 39.02 billion RMB and 41.43 billion RMB respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 44.48 billion RMB [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the high growth potential in the domestic gaming industry and improvements in profitability for its cloud music segment [1].

Core Viewpoint - The company's 2Q25 performance met expectations but slightly fell short of market forecasts, with revenue growth of 9% year-on-year to 27.9 billion yuan and Non-GAAP net profit increasing by 22% to 9.5 billion yuan [1][2] Revenue and Growth - 2Q25 revenue reached 27.9 billion yuan, aligning with the company's expectations (27.6 billion yuan) but below Bloomberg's consensus (28.4 billion yuan) [1] - Online gaming revenue grew by 15% year-on-year, driven by titles such as "Identity V," "Yanyun," and "Marvel Showdown," along with some licensed games [1] - The flagship product "Fantasy Westward Journey" mobile game achieved a new quarterly revenue high in 2Q25 [1] Cost and Profitability - Gross margin for 2Q25 was 65%, showing slight improvements from 1Q25 (64%) and 2Q24 (63%), primarily due to increased margins in gaming and VAS businesses [2] - Sales expense ratio in 2Q25 recovered to 13%, up from 9% in 1Q25, indicating a faster recovery than market expectations [2] Future Outlook - The company plans to launch key new mobile games, including "Destiny: Stars" on August 28, with a strong pipeline of diverse products for the coming years [2] - The flagship products continue to perform well, with "Identity V" and "Fantasy Westward Journey" maintaining strong positions in the iOS sales charts [2] Valuation and Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast, with current stock prices reflecting a valuation of 16x for Hong Kong and 15x for US stocks for 25/26 years Non-GAAP EPS [3] - The target price is set at 263 HKD and 169 USD, indicating an upside potential of 27% for Hong Kong stocks and 25% for US stocks [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights NetEase's strong performance in the gaming sector, with significant revenue growth driven by both new products and the revival of classic IPs [1][2][3] - In Q2 2025, NetEase reported a net revenue of 27.9 billion yuan and a net profit of 9.5 billion yuan, with R&D investment reaching 4.4 billion yuan, indicating a robust commitment to innovation [1] - The gaming segment, particularly through titles like "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" and "Dream of the Red Chamber," has shown impressive user engagement and revenue, with "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" surpassing 40 million users [2][3] Group 2 - NetEase has established a dual growth strategy of "new products breaking boundaries + classic IP rejuvenation," successfully expanding into new markets while revitalizing existing franchises [2][3] - The game "Seven Days World" has achieved a balanced user and revenue distribution between domestic and international markets, indicating strong global appeal [3] - The company is focusing on overseas expansion, with expectations of sustained growth in its gaming business over the next 2-3 years, supported by a diverse portfolio and strategic marketing efforts [4][5] Group 3 - NetEase's management emphasizes the importance of continuous updates and innovative gameplay experiences to maintain player engagement and satisfaction [2][5] - The company has developed a strong industrial foundation for large-scale, high-efficiency game development, which is crucial for its international expansion efforts [5][6] - The return of Blizzard games to NetEase has strengthened its market position, with ongoing collaboration enhancing product offerings in a competitive landscape [5][6]

Financial Performance - Net revenue for the second quarter of 2025 was 27.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.6 billion yuan, down from 10.3 billion yuan in the previous quarter and up from 6.8 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.5 billion yuan, compared to 11.2 billion yuan in the previous quarter and 7.8 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] Game Performance and Strategy - The game "Yan Yun Shi Liu Sheng" has shown stable performance, exceeding pre-launch expectations in terms of active users and commercialization [2] - "Seven Days World" experienced a revenue rebound due to a successful 2.0 version update and the introduction of a new PVP mode, ranking fourth on the Steam global sales chart [3] - The user and revenue distribution between China and overseas markets for "Seven Days World" is 1:1 and 1:1.5, respectively [3] Blizzard Games and Market Potential - Blizzard games have performed well, with data surpassing levels from before the last shutdown, indicating strong potential for attracting both new and returning players in China [4] - The company aims to create content that aligns with Chinese players' preferences to tap into the significant potential of Blizzard games [4] Shooting Game Market - The shooting game segment is highly competitive, with high user expectations for art quality and innovative gameplay [4] - The company plans to continue investing in shooting games to establish leading products in this space [4] Long-term Game Development - "Marvel Showdown" has seen revenue and daily active users stabilize after the launch of its third season, indicating effective new strategies [5] - "Forgotten Sea" is viewed as a potential top game, with a focus on its commercial model and target market [5] Evergreen Games Recovery - "Dream Journey" has shown recovery in performance, with a peak of 2.93 million concurrent users recorded [6] - "Egg Party" is expected to become a popular family game through continued investment in high-quality content and marketing [7] AI Integration and Overseas Expansion - The company is actively investing in AI to enhance game development and operations, with plans for AI-driven games in the near future [8] - The overseas market is seen as attractive, with successful titles like "Marvel Showdown" and "Seven Days World" achieving good results [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent controversy surrounding the AI features of NetEase's martial arts games "Yanyun Shiliusheng" and "Nishuihan" has escalated into a public dispute, with both games' communities actively engaging in discussions about potential plagiarism and originality of their respective AI functionalities [1][6]. Group 1: Company Responses - "Yanyun Shiliusheng" stated that its new feature "Xile Mode" utilizes AIxPose and AIxFace technologies developed by NetEase's AI Lab, emphasizing that the underlying training data was sourced internally and the technology was customized based on the game's needs [2][4]. - NetEase's AI Lab also issued a statement defending the originality of its technology, asserting that the algorithms provided for "Yanyun" were tailored to meet specific product requirements and that the lab has been a deep partner since the game's launch [2][4]. Group 2: Community Reactions - Following the announcement from "Nishuihan" on August 10, which claimed its AI "Film Crew Mode" was unique and not subject to copying, tensions between the two game communities intensified, with players accusing "Yanyun" of plagiarism [5][6]. - Players from both communities have engaged in heated debates regarding the originality of the features, questioning whether "Yanyun" is affiliated with "Nishuihan" and discussing the implications of potential copying in game functionalities [6]. Group 3: Background Information - Both "Yanyun Shiliusheng" and "Nishuihan" are backed by different divisions within NetEase, with "Yanyun" associated with NetEase Interactive Entertainment and "Nishuihan" linked to NetEase Leihuo, highlighting the competitive landscape within the company [7][8]. - The AI Labs of both divisions were established in 2017, focusing on different aspects of AI application in gaming, with NetEase's AI Lab concentrating on game-specific AI technologies [9][11].

Group 1 - Nvidia and AMD agree to pay 15% of their revenue from chip sales in China to the US government in exchange for export licenses, marking an unprecedented arrangement in US export controls [4][5] - Nvidia's revenue from China was $17 billion, accounting for 13% of its total sales, while AMD's revenue from China was $6.2 billion, making up 24% of its total revenue [5] - The agreement could potentially generate over $2 billion for the US government from Nvidia and AMD's sales in China [5] Group 2 - Xiaomi's YU7 model sold 6,042 units in its first month, representing about 20% of Xiaomi's total car sales for July, with a cumulative delivery of approximately 8,276 units [7][8] - The YU7 is priced between 253,500 to 329,900 yuan and features high specifications, including laser radar and an 800V high-voltage platform [7] - Xiaomi has adjusted its purchase policy, removing standard features that now require additional payment, potentially increasing the overall cost for consumers [8] Group 3 - Reports suggest that former Honor CEO Zhao Ming has joined the Zhijie team, although Huawei has not confirmed this [9] - Zhao Ming previously led Honor to become the top internet smartphone brand in China within two years [9] - The collaboration between GAC and Huawei aims to create a new high-end automotive brand, with the first model expected to launch in 2026 [12] Group 4 - Alibaba's "扫地僧" Cai Jing has reportedly left the company, but Alibaba has not responded to these claims [10] - Cai Jing was a senior researcher at Alibaba Cloud and played a significant role in the development of the Taobao trading system [10] Group 5 - Baichuan Intelligent has released an open-source medical model, Baichuan-M2, which reportedly outperforms OpenAI's latest models in terms of deployment cost and medical capabilities [22] - The model has achieved a score of 60.1 on HealthBench, making it the top open-source model globally [22] Group 6 - Tencent, NetEase, and miHoYo saw significant increases in overseas revenue in July, with Tencent's global revenue rising by 20% due to popular titles [25][26] - The global gaming market is expected to continue its growth, with projections indicating a market size exceeding $120 billion by 2028 [26] Group 7 - DeepSeek experienced a service outage, which was resolved within hours, highlighting the rapid growth and popularity of the AI model since its launch [27] - The application has quickly gained traction, surpassing 30 million daily active users shortly after its release [27] Group 8 - Meituan has applied to register the "Meituan Borrow Money" trademark, indicating its entry into the consumer finance sector [38] - The application is currently under substantive review, reflecting Meituan's expansion into financial services [38]