每经记者｜岳楚鹏 郑雨航 每经编辑｜程鹏 兰素英 鲍威尔将辞职的传闻，最早由一个币圈相关账号在X平台发布。但截至目前，包括美联储和白宫在内的官方渠道均未有任何证据支持这一说法。 美联储官网日程显示，鲍威尔将在美国东部时间12月1日晚8点（北京时间12月2日早上9点）参加一场活动，但这只是常规演讲，并非传闻中的紧急会议。 今年7月，也有一封由AI伪造的鲍威尔"辞职信"在社交媒体疯传。包括参议员迈克·李在内的多位MAGA阵营人士信以为真并转发，随后又紧急删除。 美国东部时间11月30日晚，一篇关于"鲍威尔即将召开紧急会议并宣布辞职"的"小作文"在国外社交媒体迅速发酵。 国际关系学院美国问题专家孙冰岩向《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称"每经记者"）指出，鲍威尔主动辞职概率为0。市场希望通过"换帅"消息来推动降 息。若鲍威尔下台，接下来上任的大概率是鸽派人物。 在小道消息甚嚣尘上的同一天，美国总统特朗普宣布，他已经确定了下任美联储主席的人选，将在近期公布。从预测平台Polymarket的数据来看，白宫国 家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特获提名的概率高达74%。 孙冰岩对此分析道，哈塞特与鲍威尔的根基差异不大，更多是细节判断 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's announcement regarding the next Federal Reserve Chair has created significant tension and speculation in the financial markets, marking a departure from traditional practices in U.S. politics [1][3][15] Group 1: Political Dynamics - Trump's relationship with current Chair Powell has been strained, with past public disputes and pressure for more aggressive interest rate cuts [3][10] - The announcement appears to be a strategic move to exert influence over the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, raising concerns about the independence of the institution [3][8][15] - The political maneuvering surrounding the Fed Chair position reflects broader tensions between domestic politics and global economic stability [15][17] Group 2: Market Reactions - The uncertainty surrounding the new Chair's alignment with White House interests has heightened market sensitivity, with potential implications for the dollar's value and global inflation [5][12][15] - Investors are on high alert, as changes in Fed leadership can lead to significant shifts in monetary policy, affecting capital flows and market confidence [5][14][15] - The market's reaction to the new Chair will depend on their perceived independence and ability to maintain the Fed's credibility [17] Group 3: Institutional Integrity - The Federal Reserve's independence is crucial for maintaining market confidence, and any perceived political interference could undermine its authority [8][9][10] - Historical precedents show that previous administrations respected the Fed's autonomy, making Trump's approach particularly notable [14][15] - The potential for the Fed to become a tool of the White House raises concerns about the long-term implications for U.S. monetary policy and global economic stability [10][15]

美国总统特朗普一记"预告式官宣"，再度将全球目光聚焦于美联储主席人选之争。当地时间周日，特朗普公开表示已确定下任美联储主席 人选，但拒绝透露姓名，仅称"很快公布"。这场牵动全球金融市场的权力更迭，瞬间引爆舆论：是政治筹码的赤裸博弈，还是美国经济政 策转向的信号灯？ 一、一场"官宣前的沉默战"：为何特朗普故弄玄虚？ 首先，哈塞特的政策立场与特朗普高度同频。他长期主张宽松货币政策，公开支持"降低贷款利率"，这与特朗普呼吁大幅降息的诉求不谋 而合。其次，作为特朗普旧部，哈塞特若执掌美联储，或将大幅削弱央行独立性，使货币政策更直接服务于白宫政治目标。 但隐患同样明显：哈塞特虽擅长政治沟通，却缺乏央行系统任职经验。相比之下，美联储理事沃勒等人更具专业背景。特朗普若坚持提 名"自己人"，恐引发市场对美联储政治化的更深忧虑。 三、鲍威尔辞职"小作文"：谣言背后的权力暗涌 事件另一爆点，是社交媒体突然流传"鲍威尔将于12月1日辞职"的匿名消息。尽管该传闻未被主流媒体证实，但其发酵速度折射出市场对 美联储高层动荡的强烈不安。 特朗普的"预告"看似突然，实则暗合其一贯的政治策略。一方面，他高调宣称"已做出决定"，另一方面却对热门 ...

Group 1 - The potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chair raises concerns about a possible interest rate cut, which could negatively impact the US dollar [1][2] - Market reactions to Hassett's nomination rumors have been muted, possibly due to his status as a popular candidate and recent declines in Treasury yields [1][3] - The probability of Hassett's nomination has increased by 18 percentage points to 53%, while other candidates like Christopher Waller and Kevin Walsh have lower probabilities [1][2] Group 2 - The market currently downplays risks to the independence of the Federal Reserve, despite concerns about the government's desire to lower rising national debt financing costs [3][4] - Analysts believe that the future path of interest rates will primarily depend on new economic data rather than the preferences of a potentially dovish Federal Reserve Chair [3][4] - Even if Hassett is seen as less independent compared to other candidates, his traditional economic background may prevent extreme policy shifts [3][4]

与美联储利率预期密切相关的短期美国国债收益率，起初随着哈塞特在博彩网站上的赔率上升而下跌， 但很快便反弹。 美元和联邦基金利率期货几乎未出现反应，据芝商所（CME）美联储观察工具显示，交易员定价12月 降息25个基点的概率为83%。 哈塞特曾担任美联储高级经济学家，被认为与美国总统特朗普政府关系密切，两人均支持更快降息。 富达国际（Fidelity International）战略债券策略首席投资组合经理迈克·里德尔（Mike Riddell）表示， 哈塞特可能被提名为美联储主席，"这让降息再次成为可能，对美元构成利空"。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国债券市场对白宫经济顾问凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）有望出任下一任美联储主席的前景表现平 静，但表面的平静之下潜藏着一丝隐忧：他偏向降息的立场可能会削弱美元。 在媒体报道后，本周关于哈塞特将在明年5月鲍威尔美联储主席任期结束后接替该职位的押注有所增 加，不过白宫表示，在最终决定出炉前，任何关于新主席的讨论都仍属猜测。 在博彩网站Polymarket上，哈塞特的赔率已上升18个百分点至53%，沃勒以22%位居第二，沃什 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strengthening of the US dollar index is primarily supported by external factors, including the weakening of non-US currencies and a temporary alleviation of employment concerns [6]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Dollar Strength - The collective weakening of non-US currencies has provided passive support for the dollar index, with the Japanese yen and British pound both under pressure due to respective economic conditions and policy decisions [1]. - Expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, reinforcing the resilience of the dollar. Despite a rate cut in October, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve have led to a significant reduction in the market's expectations for further cuts in December [2]. - The pause in the release of key economic data due to the government shutdown has alleviated short-term employment concerns, with recent ADP employment data showing marginal improvement, thus supporting the dollar index [3]. Group 2: Additional Supporting Factors - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have temporarily eased, following the Supreme Court's decision to hear a case related to potential dismissals within the Fed, which has calmed market fears [5]. - Increased risk aversion has driven demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset, particularly following a pullback in US tech stocks and tightening liquidity conditions [5]. Group 3: Limitations on Future Dollar Strength - The risks in the employment market have not fundamentally eased, with key employment data yet to be released, and the potential for downward revisions in previously reported job numbers [7]. - There remains room for a return to rate cut expectations, particularly if a dovish candidate is appointed as the next Fed chair, which could negatively impact the dollar index [7]. - The support from non-US currencies is not robust, as the Japanese yen's depreciation may prompt government intervention, which could weaken its support for the dollar index [7]. - Technical resistance is evident near the 100-point mark for the dollar index, requiring additional positive factors for further upward movement [7]. Group 4: Short-term Outlook - In the short term, the dollar index is expected to maintain a high-level oscillation, with upcoming employment data and the appointment of a new Fed chair candidate serving as critical tests for its resilience [8].

来源：华尔街情报圈 昨晚又是"美元下跌，一切皆涨"的格局，至此美国股市收复了上周四以来的所有跌幅。 这次的上涨，受一则消息影响：彭博社引述知情人士消息称，白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特可能成为 下任美联储主席。 在市场开盘前，美国财长贝森特便放风，特朗普很有可能在12月25日之前宣布美联储主席人选。很显 然，"哈塞特可能成为下任美联储主席"的消息是被有意释放出来的，是对市场的一次测试。从市场表现 看，哈塞特当选的可能性大增，因为受该消息影响上涨了，而没有出现因为担忧美联储独立性市场大跌 的情况。 哈塞特上位是一件极其重要、且被市场低估的"大事"，等于特朗普将首次真正"掌控"美联储，意味着利 率可能更早、更快、更激进地下调，金融环境更宽松。 真正值得警惕的不是哈塞特的经济观点，而是这句话背后的逻辑： 在上周四美股大跌前一天，特朗普曾说"可能会选一个符合常规的美联储主席"，但哈塞特并不符合常 规。在特朗普公开宣布之前，一切都不是定局。 值得注意的是，美股连续三个交易日上涨，勉强收复了上周四当天的所有跌幅。前两个交易日上涨，是 在消化美联储12月降息的概率。在市场几乎完全计价12月降息概率后，又传出下任联储主席的消息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing power struggle between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is significantly impacting the U.S. economy and the financial well-being of ordinary citizens [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve is viewed as a cornerstone of the U.S. economy, with its primary tasks being to stabilize prices and promote employment [2]. - The Fed operates independently and has the authority to raise interest rates during economic overheating or lower them to stimulate recovery during downturns [2]. Group 2: Trump's Strategies - Trump employs three main strategies to pressure the Federal Reserve into lowering interest rates: 1. A media campaign attacking Powell's credibility, labeling him as lacking courage and obstructing economic growth [3]. 2. Attempting to remove dissenting members from the Fed, specifically targeting Governor Lisa Cook, which is unprecedented in the Fed's history [3][4]. 3. Appointing loyalists, such as Chief Economic Advisor Stephen Moore, to key positions within the Fed to gain control over monetary policy [5]. Group 3: Historical Context - Trump's tactics mirror those of former President Nixon, who pressured the Fed to maintain low interest rates, leading to rampant inflation and necessitating drastic measures by future Fed Chairman Paul Volcker [4][5]. Group 4: Potential Economic Outcomes - Two potential future scenarios have been outlined: 1. A gradual decline in economic vitality as the Fed, under pressure, becomes hesitant to combat inflation, leading to a slow rise in prices to around 3% [7]. 2. A complete takeover of the Fed by the White House, resulting in short-term economic euphoria but potentially leading to a severe economic downturn [9]. Group 5: Implications for Ordinary Citizens - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for protecting the purchasing power of ordinary citizens, ensuring that their savings do not diminish due to political pressures [11]. - The ongoing conflict poses risks to the U.S. economy's future, with potential consequences including high inflation rates and increased mortgage rates, which could lead to a state of "stagflation" [12].

哈喽，大家好，小玖今天要跟大家扒一扒美国政坛最近的一出好戏。"我很想解雇鲍威尔，他极其无 能。"特朗普在近日的发言中毫不掩饰其不满，甚至提出应就美联储的建设成本问题起诉鲍威尔。 这场看似突然的爆发，实则是一场酝酿已久的战争，一边是渴望连任的总统，另一边是坚守独立性的美 联储。 指桑骂槐：特朗普的明枪与暗箭 特朗普最近又玩起了政治策略，公开表示如果财政部长贝森特不能推动美元利率下降，将解雇这位财政 部长。 表面上在批评贝森特，实际上真正的目标是美联储主席鲍威尔。这种指桑骂槐的手法，暴露了特朗普对 当前货币政策的不满。 特朗普对贝森特调侃道："贝森特唯一搞砸的就是美联储，利率太高了，如果你不尽快搞定，我就炒了 你。" 然而，众所周知，利率决策权在美联储手中，而非财政部长。 早在今年7月，特朗普就曾在社交媒体上发文称："'太迟先生'应该立即辞职！！！" 这一称呼反映了他 认为鲍威尔在降息问题上总是行动过晚。 特朗普在2017年提名鲍威尔为美联储主席，但如今两人却在货币政策上产生了严重分歧。 特朗普对鲍威尔的不满主要集中在四个方面：一是认为鲍威尔降息太慢；二是鲍威尔坚守美联储"独立 运作"原则，拒绝顺应白宫政策导向。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Barclays Research anticipates that risk assets will receive stronger support, and the US dollar will continue to strengthen until 2026, despite market volatility due to uncertainties surrounding AI valuations, investment returns, and earnings growth [1] Group 1: US Dollar Outlook - The positive outlook for the US dollar is primarily based on significant AI capital expenditure plans in the US, which could have transformative impacts on the economy, geopolitics, and competition [1] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve are diminishing, tariff risks are easing, and fiscal stimulus measures are advancing, contributing to a positive momentum for the dollar expected to last until 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Even if risk sentiment deteriorates further, there is still potential for the dollar to appreciate against the yen, while high-beta emerging market currencies may face vulnerabilities [1]