智通财经APP获悉，对于美联储主席鲍威尔任期的不确定性正促使投资者评估如果美联储提前更换领导 层可能会引发的市场反应。美国总统特朗普多次批评鲍威尔未能足够迅速地降低美国利率。他经常提及 在鲍威尔任期结束前(还有十个月)将其赶下台的可能性，同时又表示解雇他"不太可能"。 特朗普周四表示，在他访问美联储华盛顿总部并参观了被白宫批评称过于昂贵且铺张浪费的两座历史建 筑的改造工程现场后，他与鲍威尔进行了"一次良好的会面"。他称没有必要解雇鲍威尔。 尽管新任美联储主席若态度更倾向于降息，股市或许最终会对其有所期待，但投资者表示，如果鲍威尔 被解职，股市可能会出现大幅下跌。Ablin表示，股市的跌幅会比上周有关鲍威尔即将被解职的报道所 引发的不到 1%的下跌幅度更大。 野村公司发达市场首席经济学家David Seif称，解雇鲍威尔会增加特朗普试图更大程度地掌控美联储的 风险。Seif表示："美联储独立性的丧失会导致通胀不确定性大幅增加，这将促使投资者要求为将资金 长期锁定在美联储而获得更高的回报，从而导致收益率曲线变得更加陡峭。" FP Markets首席分析师 Aaron Hill称，黄金可能是在这种情况下受益的资产。 ...

金十数据7月25日讯，据CNN报道，美联储主席鲍威尔已向多位密友与盟友表示，他绝不会屈服于特朗 普要求其辞职的呼声，并誓言将坚守岗位。知情人士透露，鲍威尔私下强调他必须留任，这不仅仅是出 于个人原因，更是因为其职位命运已与美联储的独立性密不可分。曾亲自向鲍威尔询问过是否考虑辞职 的共和党参议员麦克·朗兹表示，"他非常坚定地认为，自己有责任维护这种独立性。"报道称，特朗普 与其团队的策略似乎是让鲍威尔的任期尽量痛苦，削弱其公信力，逼迫他自行辞职。一位特朗普顾问将 这种策略形容为"温水煮青蛙"："鲍威尔要么跳出去，要么被'煮熟'。"尽管白宫攻势汹涌，但鲍威尔已 向同事表示，将全神贯注于制定货币政策，不受政治影响。 CNN：特朗普想"温水煮青蛙"，鲍威尔誓守美联储独立性 ...

Core Insights - A recent survey indicates that 89 out of 100 top policy experts express concerns over the quality of U.S. official economic data, with many fearing insufficient urgency from authorities to address the issue [1][2][3] Group 1: Concerns Over Data Quality - The survey reveals that 41 out of 100 economists are "very concerned" about the quality of U.S. economic data, highlighting fears regarding future data releases [2] - A significant reduction in the workforce at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and other government agencies is seen as a potential threat to the reliability of data used for decision-making by policymakers, companies, and households [1][2] - Over 80% of respondents believe that U.S. authorities are not treating the accuracy of economic data with sufficient urgency [3][4] Group 2: Impact of Budget Cuts - Approximately 70% of respondents feel that U.S. government agencies lack the resources necessary to maintain high-quality economic data collection and publication [4] - The BLS has announced it will stop calculating and publishing around 350 components of the Producer Price Index (PPI) due to staff reductions, which is a key inflation indicator [2] - Experts note that budget cuts are occurring at a time when conducting surveys is becoming increasingly difficult, as more effort is required to sample and follow up with respondents [4] Group 3: Implications for Federal Reserve - More than two-thirds of respondents express concern that deteriorating statistical data could impair the Federal Reserve's decision-making [4] - There are worries about the independence of the Federal Reserve from political influence, especially in light of public criticisms from President Trump [4]

当地时间24日下午，美国总统特朗普造访美联储，考察美联储耗巨资的建设项目。这一行程打破惯例，使其成为将近20年来，首次正式造访美联储的美国总 统。此举是特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔施压的升级。 特朗普头戴白色安全帽，两人在施工现场的钻机轰鸣中针锋相对，为这场罕见交锋增添戏剧性。 这场历史性的访问发生在美联储总部办公大楼。这项始于2022年的工程预计2027年完工，2028年3月启用，预算从19亿美元增至25亿美元。这项翻修工程最 近成为特朗普批评鲍威尔的焦点所在。 在参观过程中，两人的争论主要集中于项目的耗资数额。特朗普声称翻修工程的成本已达31亿美元，还向鲍威尔展示了关于美联储总部建筑物翻修成本的纸 质文件。鲍威尔当场反驳，"我还没听任何人说过有这个数字"，并冷静指出特朗普误将五年前完工的另一栋政府大楼的成本计入。 特朗普对此只回应道，"我们会去核实。"现场气氛剑拔弩张。 ▲当地时间2025年7月24日，特朗普造访美联储，拿出纸质文件与鲍威尔核算账目 图据IC photo 访问中，特朗普重申对美联储利率政策的不满，要求鲍威尔将基准利率下调至少3个百分点，称可为美国节省"数千亿"美元的债务利息，更是戏称鲍威尔 为 ...

《华尔街日报》近期刊发了一篇深度分析文章，探讨了特朗普政府与美联储之间日益激化的冲突。 华尔街日报资深市场专栏作家James Mackintosh在文章中详细剖析了白宫对美联储主席鲍威尔施压降息的策略及其可能产生的适得其反效果。 Mackintosh通过对市场数据和政策机制的深入分析，揭示了一个看似矛盾的现象： 特朗普越是公开施压美联储，反而越难达成其降息目标 。文章认为 ， 这场 争端本质上反映了制度独立性与民粹主义之间的根本分歧。 据Mackintosh统计，在特朗普呼吁降息3个百分点的第二天，纽约联储衡量的10年期期限溢价升至0.84个百分点，高于他在4月份类似攻击后回落时的0.6个百 分点，更远高于去年选举前一个月的零水平。 Mackintosh指出，特朗普近几周来加大了对鲍威尔的攻击力度，希望推动美联储降息。然而，文章称，" 他喊得越响，越不可能得到他真正想要的：更低的政 府借贷成本和更便宜的抵押贷款。 "这种施压策略可能正在破坏投资者信心，推高长期债券收益率。 文章强调，这场冲突的核心在于两种截然不同的治理理念碰撞。特朗普的观点体现了"人民的声音就是上帝的声音"这一民粹主义理念，而美联储则恰恰相反 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pressure exerted by President Trump on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, highlighting the implications for the Fed's independence and the capital markets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Trump's Visit and Pressure on the Fed - Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve is the first by a sitting president in nearly 20 years, aimed at pressuring Chairman Powell to lower interest rates [3]. - Trump suggested that reducing rates by three percentage points could save the U.S. over $1 trillion [3]. - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have increased, with traders now anticipating a reduction of 76 basis points in 2026, up from an earlier expectation of 25 basis points [3]. Group 2: Allegations Against Powell - Congressman Luna has accused Powell of perjury regarding the $25 billion renovation of the Fed's headquarters, claiming he misrepresented the project's luxury features and budget adjustments [6]. - The allegations come amid ongoing pressure from Trump and his allies, aiming to undermine Powell's authority and potentially set the stage for his removal [6][9]. - Powell has denied the allegations and initiated an internal review of the renovation project to restore public trust [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Long-term Risks - Short-term market reactions show a rise in stock indices like Nasdaq and S&P 500, indicating a focus on corporate earnings rather than political turmoil [7]. - The bond market reflects increased risk aversion, with a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield by approximately 6 basis points [7]. - Long-term risks include challenges to the Fed's independence, which could lead to inflation expectations becoming unanchored and damage the credibility of the U.S. dollar [7][10]. Group 4: Legal and Internal Factors - Legally, removing the Fed Chairman requires "just cause," and if the perjury allegations are not substantiated, it may be difficult to remove Powell [9]. - Internal opposition exists, with moderate figures like Treasury Secretary Mnuchin opposing the removal, citing the current economic stability [9]. Group 5: Conclusion and Investor Guidance - The situation is characterized as a political struggle using moral issues, with limited short-term market impact but potential long-term systemic risks due to the erosion of the Fed's independence [10]. - Investors are advised to monitor the judicial investigation and Trump's policy direction, prioritizing assets that can withstand volatility, such as gold and short-term Treasuries, while being cautious of long-term credit risks associated with dollar assets [10].

美国白宫与美联储之间的矛盾正在加剧。 而尽管历任总统都曾对美联储的政策表示不满，但从未有哪一名总统尝试解除美联储主席职务。鲍威尔此 前说，"法律不允许"解除其职务。 当地时间7月24日下午，美国总统特朗普罕见地访问美联储，考察美联储耗巨资的建设项目。美媒称这是 将近20年来，美国总统首次正式造访美联储（据《纽约时报》此前报道，通常情况下，美国总统不会以官 方身份造访美联储，以体现美联储"独立"于白宫的传统）。 7月24日，美国华盛顿，美国总统特朗普（左）与美联储主席鲍威尔（右）交谈（来源：视觉中国） 美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）指出，市场普遍认为，这是特朗普向美联储主席鲍威尔施压的新方 式，目的是迫使鲍威尔降息，或辞去美联储主席的职务。 特朗普急催降息，称"解雇鲍威尔将是个大动作" 在当日的媒体提问环节，特朗普和鲍威尔就利率、是否将解雇鲍威尔等问题作出回应。 当被问及，鲍威尔是否可以说些什么，以让特朗普收回批评言论时，特朗普表示，希望鲍威尔降低利率。 据央视新闻报道，特朗普表示，如果把利率降低三个百分点至一个百分点，美国就能省下一万多亿美元。 他将观察委员会如何制定利率规则。 而在谈及是否将解雇鲍威尔 ...

国际在线消息：当地时间7月24日下午，美国总统特朗普前往美联储，考察美联储"耗巨资"25亿美元的建设项目。美媒称这是近20年来，美国总统首次正式 造访美联储总部，此举是特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔施压的升级，目的是迫使鲍威尔降低利率或辞去美联储主席一职。 据美媒报道，在参观位于华盛顿特区的美联储总部翻修现场时，二人就装修费用发生了短暂争执。特朗普可以合法解雇美联储主席鲍威尔吗？解雇鲍威尔美 国又会面临什么？ 从19亿到25亿美元的翻修泥潭有多深 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）报道称，历任总统都习惯把美联储主席当作"出气筒"，一再呼吁这位独立央行的负责人降低利率以刺激经济。尽管针对鲍威尔 的"口头攻击"仍在继续，但自上月起，矛头转向美联储耗资巨大的总部翻修项目。 在鲍威尔向国会进行半年一次的作证中，他多次被追问该项目的天价开支和严重超支情况。共和党人将该项目戏称为"凡尔赛宫"，指责鲍威尔主导了一个过 于奢华的项目，充斥着华丽的雕塑和奢靡的设计。鲍威尔则否认这些指控，表示翻修百年老楼早已迫在眉睫，且属必要之举。 "没有贵宾餐厅，没有新的大理石.......也没有专属电梯，只有几十年来的老电梯。"鲍威尔上月在参议院作证时 ...

Core Viewpoint - HSBC economists predict that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep the policy interest rate unchanged in the upcoming meeting, marking the fifth consecutive pause in rate hikes [1] Group 1 - HSBC's Ryan Wang notes that there are differing views among policymakers regarding the recent policy path ahead of the meeting [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller has expressed support for a rate cut in July, indicating potential dissent among officials in the upcoming decision [1] - Chairman Powell may face questions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve during the meeting [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve, focusing on the controversy surrounding the renovation costs of the Fed's headquarters and his ongoing pressure for interest rate cuts, which may indicate a potential shift in the relationship between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve [1][3][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Renovation and Costs - Trump highlighted that the renovation costs for the two Federal Reserve buildings have exceeded $3.1 billion, a claim that Fed Chairman Powell disputed, stating that Trump included costs from a third building completed five years ago [1]. - The visit comes after a historical precedent where only three U.S. presidents have visited the Federal Reserve, indicating the significance of Trump's engagement with the institution [1]. Group 2: Interest Rate Cuts and Political Pressure - Trump has been urging the Federal Reserve to lower the benchmark interest rate from the current range of 4.25% to 4.5% down to 1% to reduce federal borrowing costs [1]. - Following Trump's comments, market expectations have shifted, with traders betting on a more significant rate cut than previously anticipated, reflecting growing belief that the Fed may align more closely with White House demands after Powell's potential departure [8]. Group 3: Potential Reforms and Regulatory Changes - Trump's administration is exploring the possibility of reforming the Federal Reserve's operations, with officials suggesting a comprehensive investigation into the Fed's efficiency and operations [4]. - There is speculation about merging the roles of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve under a single leadership, which could significantly alter the Fed's independence and operational framework [4][6]. Group 4: Legislative Changes and Political Dynamics - Trump is attempting to change the Senate's "60-vote rule," which could allow for easier passage of reforms affecting the Federal Reserve, potentially increasing presidential influence over the Fed [7]. - If successful, this could lead to a restructuring of the Federal Reserve's governance, including the appointment of more officials aligned with Trump's policies, thereby impacting the Fed's decision-making process [7][8].