证券研究报告 食品饮料 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：茶饮及餐饮供应链 有望受益平台外卖竞争》2025-07-15 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：白酒仍在筑底，关 注大众品结构性机会》2025-07-10 《啤酒行业跟踪报告：啤酒进入消费旺季，燕 京啤酒 U8 放量》2025-06-27 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：白酒持续筑底，聚 焦高景气主线》2025-06-09 范林泉 S0820525020001 021-32229888-25516 fanlinquan@ajzq.com 行业研究 / 行业点评 2025 年 07 月 22 日 行业及产业 6 月餐饮增速放缓，白酒有望筑底企稳 ——食品饮料行业跟踪报告 强于大市 投资要点： 周度跟踪：本周（7.14-7.18）食品饮料板块+0.68%，表现微弱于上证指数（+0.69%），在 31个申万子行业中排名第14。食品饮料子板块中，涨跌幅由高到低分别为：软饮料（+2.02%）， 乳品（+1.24%），白酒（+0.88%），调味发酵品（+0.68%），肉制品（+0.24%），其他 酒类（+0.1 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [3] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the real estate sector is experiencing a divergence in performance, with most companies facing a decline in earnings while a few high-quality firms are managing to improve their profitability [1][9] - The overall pre-loss range for 76 listed real estate companies is estimated to be between 35.05 billion and 47.84 billion yuan, with 61.8% of firms expected to report losses [1][9] - The report highlights a potential turning point in the industry, driven by policy support aimed at stabilizing the market and improving fundamentals [3][14] Summary by Sections 1. Company Performance Forecasts - As of July 18, 2025, 76 real estate companies have disclosed their mid-year performance forecasts, with 29 companies expecting profits and 47 anticipating losses [1][9] - Notable companies such as Poly Developments and China Overseas Development have reported significant profit declines exceeding 60% [1][9] - Some mid-sized firms like Deyue City and Chengjian Development have turned losses into profits, primarily due to high-margin project settlements [10][12] 2. Market Transaction Overview - New housing transactions for the week totaled 1.71 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.17% [2][17] - The second-hand housing market also saw a decrease, with transactions down 7.00% year-on-year [2][17] - The land market recorded a total transaction area of 1.373 million square meters, with a total transaction value of 20.1 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 18.68% [2][17] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt relief and policy support, as well as leading firms with product advantages [3][14] - Specific companies recommended for investment include Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments, among others [3][14]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 07 20 年 月 日 食品饮料 周观点：业绩分化持续，饮料正当旺季 投资建议：1、白酒：6 月社零平淡，茅台重启渠道变革，行业逐步筑底企稳，建 议关注"优势龙头、红利延续、强势复苏"三条主线：1）优势龙头，头部酒企份 额持续提升：贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、古井贡酒；2）红利延续，高确定性 区域酒：今世缘（江苏格局红利）、迎驾贡酒（洞藏大单品红利）等；3）受益复 苏与风险偏好提升，弹性标的：泸州老窖、水井坊、舍得酒业、老白干酒、港股珍 酒李渡、酒鬼酒等。2、大众品：啤酒 6 月环比略承压，KKR 拟收购大窑，良品控 制权变更，中报业绩预告披露、预期调整逐步到位，重点关注优秀成长个股：1） 高景气或高成长逻辑：盐津铺子、东鹏饮料、燕京啤酒、珠江啤酒、万辰集团、三 只松鼠、百润股份、有友食品、好想你等，港股卫龙美味等。2）政策受益或复苏 改善：青岛啤酒、海天味业、新乳业、伊利股份、重庆啤酒、安琪酵母、仙乐健 康、百龙创园、安井食品、立高食品等，港股农夫山泉、华润饮料、H&H 国际控 股等。 白酒：茅台重启渠道变革，行业逐步筑底企稳。6 月社零总额同 ...

随着52家信托公司2025年上半年未经审计财务数据的披露，信托行业的业绩分化情况愈发明显。 具体来看，今年上半年中信信托（合并）营业收入位列第一，达到29.16亿元；手续费及佣金收入则是 英大信托位列第一，达到14.44亿元；华能信托实现投资收益14.49亿元，位列行业第一。而华澳信托营 业收入为负（-0.26亿元）。 这种"几家欢喜几家忧"的局面，在业内人士分析看来，头部信托公司早在三分类新规落地前就完成了标 品信托、服务信托、家族信托的布局，而部分信托公司仍依赖传统非标融资，转型迟缓。同时，亏损公 司普遍受存量地产项目拖累，减值计提大幅增加。 行业收入分化明显 据不完全统计，2025年上半年中信信托（合并）营业收入位列第一，达到29.16亿元；英大信托、华鑫 信托分别以19.41亿元和16.34亿元的营业收入分列第二、三位。 从各家信托公司情况来看，有9家信托公司营业收入超过10亿元；15家信托公司的营业收入在5-10亿元 之间；23家信托公司的营业收入在1-5亿元之间。 净利润方面，英大信托上半年表现亮眼。据国网英大公告，英大信托上半年实现营业总收入19.41亿 元，手续费及佣金净收入14.44亿元，利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is facing significant challenges in the first half of 2025, with a notable performance divergence among listed companies, as many report substantial losses while a few manage to turn profits [1][2]. Group 1: Overall Performance - As of July 17, 2025, 61 listed real estate companies have disclosed their mid-year performance forecasts, with a total expected loss ranging from 342.56 billion to 464.97 billion [1]. - Out of these, 24 companies anticipate profits while 37 expect losses, indicating that 60% of the companies are projected to report losses [1][2]. - The overall trend shows a decline in performance, with companies like China Vanke and Greenland Holdings shifting from profit to loss, while others like Joy City and Urban Construction Development have managed to turn losses into profits [1][2]. Group 2: Companies Turning Profits - In the first half of 2025, 24 companies are expected to achieve profits totaling between 68.68 billion and 80.16 billion, with 12 companies successfully reversing previous losses [2][3]. - Urban Construction Development is projected to report a net profit of 4.4 billion to 6.54 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of up to 575.14% [3][7]. - Other companies that have turned profitable include Zhongzhou Holdings, City Investment Holdings, and Joy City, showcasing resilience in a challenging market [2][3]. Group 3: Companies Reporting Losses - Among the 37 companies forecasting losses, 13 are expected to report their first-ever losses, including Shahe Co., Xiangjiang Holdings, and Greenland Holdings [8][11]. - The total expected loss for these companies ranges from 422.72 billion to 533.64 billion, with Vanke leading with a projected loss of 100 billion to 120 billion [8][11]. - Other notable companies with significant losses include Jindi Group, which anticipates a loss of 34 billion to 42 billion, and Xinda Real Estate, expecting a loss of 35 billion to 39 billion [11][12]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall real estate market is still in an adjustment phase, but signs of stabilization are emerging, particularly in first-tier and some strong second-tier cities [14]. - Analysts suggest that the second half of 2025 may present a turning point for the industry, with potential recovery driven by policy adjustments and improved buyer confidence [13][14]. - The top 100 real estate companies reported a total sales amount of 18,364.1 billion, a year-on-year decline of 11.8%, but the rate of decline is narrowing [13].

今年以来，随着A股结构性行情持续演绎，主动权益基金的业绩逐步回暖，但业绩分化依旧突出。 以次新基金为例，21世纪经济报道记者通过统计的数据显示，截至7月14日，在今年内成立且存续满3个 月的150只主动权益基金（不同份额分开计算）中，景顺长城新兴产业仅用3个多月时间就斩获了超18% 的回报率，而早半个月成立的德邦高端装备已浮亏了近18%。 整体上，目前，八成次新基金自成立以来回报率为正；而成立后，净值跌幅超过3%的次新基金占比约 为9%。 受访人士向记者指出，重仓行业、建仓时点都有可能影响次新基金当前的业绩表现。归根究底，不同基 金经理对宏观形势、微观行业的理解存在差异，继而导致主动权益基金的赚钱水平参差不齐。 分化 今年上半年，不少次新主动权益基金抓住了A股结构性机会。 其中，一些表现较好的次新基金（剔除C份额基金，下同），在成立5个月后，就赚取了超过35%的回报 率，也有基金用3个多月的时间赢得了15%的回报率。 具体来看，据统计，截至7月14日，景顺长城医疗产业A、景顺长城新兴产业A、永赢锐见进取A、恒生 前海港股通价值A、华泰柏瑞红利精选A、西部利得均衡优选A自成立以来的回报率分别为37.51%、 1 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨公用事业 [Table_Title] 电力行业 2025 年半年报前瞻：火电业绩展望积 极，清洁能源或有分化 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 综合火电三要素，虽然二季度电价及电量延续回落，但考虑到年初以来煤价仍有明显下降，北 方电厂及部分华东地区火电运营商二季度业绩仍将维持积极表现。水电方面，在高基数影响下 二季度水电电量承压，但部分水电公司通过优化水库调度及蓄水节奏等仍有望实现稳健业绩增 长。核电方面，虽然二季度电量均维持同比增长，但由于不同省份受电价下降影响不同，因此 两核业绩或将有所分化。绿电方面，虽然绿电 4-5 月全国利用小时数持续回落，但是各省利用 小时表现存在明显差异，区域分布或将主导板块内公司业绩表现有所分化。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SAC：S0490523080003 SFC：BQT627 张韦华 司旗 宋尚骞 刘亚辉 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com ...

Group 1 - Jiashi Fund announced the renaming of 22 index products to enhance investor recognition and improve ETF investment convenience, effective June 17 [1] - The renaming strategy involves adopting a format of "benchmark index + ETF + manager name" for better identification of index products [1] Group 2 - Active equity funds have shown significant performance differentiation this year, with 69.46% of 4,554 equity funds achieving net value growth, up from 42.07% in the same period last year [2] - The top-performing active equity funds have recorded net value growth rates exceeding 87%, while the bottom performers have seen losses exceeding 24% [2] Group 3 - As of the end of Q1 2025, the total scale of enterprise annuity funds reached 3.73 trillion yuan, with a net investment asset value of 3.70 trillion yuan, and a three-year cumulative return of 7.46% [3] - Fixed income combinations within single plans reported a three-year cumulative return of 10.8%, while equity-inclusive combinations reported 7.13% [3] Group 4 - Several bond funds, including the Roadbo Fund and Jingguan Taifu Fund, have ended their fundraising early due to exceeding subscription limits, with the Roadbo Fund closing on June 13 [4][5] Group 5 - Public fund research activity has increased, with 129 public fund institutions conducting 780 research sessions on A-share listed companies, marking a 17.82% increase from the previous week [6] - The technology sector, particularly the electronics industry, received the most attention, with 160 research sessions conducted [7] Group 6 - Xu Chengcheng has been appointed as the fund manager for the Xingye CSI A500 ETF Link, bringing 21 years of experience in the securities industry [8] Group 7 - On June 17, the market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.04% and total trading volume at 1.21 trillion yuan, a decrease of 78.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day [9] - The National 2000 ETF led gains with a 1.92% increase, while Hong Kong's innovative drug-related ETFs saw declines of up to 5.24% [10]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of QDII (Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor) funds has shown significant divergence in 2023, with a notable number of funds experiencing substantial gains primarily in the pharmaceutical sector, while others, particularly commodity-focused funds, have faced declines [1][2][4]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of May 26, 2023, out of 310 QDII funds, 234 funds (75.5%) reported positive net asset value growth, with 45 funds achieving growth rates exceeding 20% [2][4]. - The top three performing funds were Huatai-PB Hong Kong Advantage Selection A (66.8%), ICBC New Economy USD (41.7%), and FT Global Blue Chip Selection RMB (37.5%) [2][3]. - Conversely, 76 QDII funds experienced net value declines, with 11 funds seeing declines greater than 8%, particularly in oil and gas sectors [2][3]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - Funds with strong net value growth predominantly invested in the pharmaceutical sector, while those with significant declines were heavily weighted in commodity assets, especially oil and gas [3][4]. - For instance, Huatai-PB Hong Kong Advantage Selection A's top holdings included companies like Rongchang Bio and Innovent Biologics, all within the pharmaceutical sector [3][4]. - In contrast, the top holdings of Hua Bao S&P Oil & Gas A RMB included energy companies such as Hess and Exxon Mobil, reflecting a focus on the energy sector [3]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The pharmaceutical sector has shown strong fundamentals, providing support for the net value increases of related funds, while the oil and gas sector has been negatively impacted by international commodity price fluctuations [4][5]. - International oil prices have remained weak, with the NYMEX crude oil price at $61.76 per barrel, and natural gas prices dropping to $3.7 per million British thermal units [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that geopolitical risks and excess inventory have contributed to the ongoing weakness in oil prices, with expectations of continued pressure on oil and gas fund valuations [5].

Core Insights - The performance of private banks in 2024 can be summarized with three keywords: "diversification," "pressure," and "transformation" [1] - The total asset scale of 19 private banks reached 2.15 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, but significant differentiation is evident [2] Group 1: Leading Institutions - Two leading institutions, WeBank and MyBank, have asset scales exceeding 450 billion yuan and revenue surpassing 20 billion yuan, creating a "discontinuity advantage" over other banks [1][2] - WeBank reported total assets of 651.78 billion yuan, operating income of 38.13 billion yuan, and net profit of 10.90 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - MyBank's total assets reached 471.04 billion yuan, with operating income of 21.31 billion yuan and net profit of 3.17 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Performance Challenges - Many private banks are facing growth pressure, with several institutions experiencing "increased revenue but decreased profit" scenarios [4] - WeBank's revenue grew by 13.71% to 21.31 billion yuan, but net profit declined by 24.67% to 3.17 billion yuan [4] - Five private banks reported declines in both revenue and net profit, with Zhongguancun Bank's revenue and net profit decreasing by 1.36% and 11.29%, respectively [4] Group 3: Asset Quality and Risks - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for private banks was 1.66% at the end of 2024, up from 1.55% in 2023 [5] - The NPL ratio among the 19 banks ranged from 0.9% to 2.8%, with four banks exceeding the average NPL ratio [6] Group 4: Future Growth Strategies - Private banks are focusing on service and product innovation to overcome competitive pressures and achieve sustainable growth [7] - The introduction of state-owned capital into private banks may provide advantages, allowing them to operate under city commercial bank regulations [8] - In 2024, two private banks welcomed state-owned shareholders, indicating a shift in shareholder structure [7][8]