Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The central bank's meeting emphasizes promoting high - quality economic development and a reasonable rise in prices, keeping the macro sentiment positive. The supply of coking coal is tightening, driving up the prices of coking coal and coke. With the expected resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking, iron ore prices remain strong. Although the fundamentals of steel in the off - season are lackluster, strong cost support keeps the futures prices strong. The price increase of glass and soda ash stimulates mid - stream restocking, but fundamental contradictions still exist [1][2]. - In general, the off - season fundamentals have few bright spots. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking intensity. The resumption of production by steel enterprises in January is expected to boost the restocking expectation further, and the prices of furnace materials are expected to rise from the low level, but the upside is limited by steel mills' profits [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Iron ore: Port inventories are continuously accumulating, and there are expectations of supply disruptions. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking on the demand side support the ore price. In reality, both supply and demand need to be verified. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [2][8]. - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills' inventories are high, and restocking has slowed down. The spot price of scrap steel lacks the momentum to rise, but the good profits of electric furnaces support the demand. Overall, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [2][9]. Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mills' resumption of production still exists. As mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten. The sharp rise in the futures market may drive spot - futures and speculative demand to enter the market for procurement. The room for further price cuts in the spot market is limited, and the futures price is expected to follow that of coking coal [2][11]. - Coking coal: As the Chinese New Year approaches, the intensity of winter restocking is increasing, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the futures and spot prices still have upward momentum [2][12]. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon remains loose, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. In the medium term, the futures price is expected to gradually fall back to near the cost valuation. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up [3][17]. - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the supply pressure of ferrosilicon is not large. The strong rebound of the black chain and the expected increase in electricity costs in Shaanxi support the futures price to maintain a high level in the short term. However, if the spot price rises significantly due to the influence of the futures, the resumption of production by manufacturers may accelerate after profit repair, and the upstream supply pressure may reappear. Caution should be exercised regarding the upside space of the futures price [3][19]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply exceeds demand. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [3][6][13]. - Soda ash: The overall supply exceeds demand. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of oversupply will intensify further, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [3][6][16]. Other Information - Steel: The cost and sentiment provide support, and the futures price is strong. The spot market transactions have improved, and the profitability of steel mills has improved. However, in the off - season, the demand is facing downward pressure, and the inventory removal speed has slowed down. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate widely at a low level, and attention should be paid to the pre - festival restocking rhythm [8]. - Commodity Index: On January 7, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities rose. The special index, including the Commodity Index, Commodity 20 Index, and Industrial Products Index, also increased. The steel industry chain index had significant gains, with a daily increase of 3.33%, a 5 - day increase of 2.82%, a 1 - month increase of 4.79%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.21% [106][107].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short term, under the influence of the macro - sentiment, the non - ferrous metal sector has generally recovered. Coupled with the unchanged tight balance between supply and demand, the price of Shanghai tin is expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend [8] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content Market Performance - Today, the Shanghai tin contract continued the recent rebound trend, showing a pattern of "gapping up and rising, and oscillating at a high level". After opening in the morning, it was driven by the warming macro - sentiment and the general rise of the non - ferrous metal sector. Then, restricted by the cautious purchasing attitude of downstream users, the market slightly declined to the daily low. In the afternoon, the game between bulls and bears intensified, and the price oscillated and consolidated in the high - level range, with the total trading volume of the day being a certain number of lots [2] - The total trading volume of Shanghai tin futures contracts was 72,954 lots, and the total open interest was 79,757 lots. Specific data for each contract, such as open price, high price, low price, closing price, settlement reference price, price change, trading volume, trading value, and open interest change, are detailed in the table [4] Technical Analysis - Today, the daily chart of the Shanghai tin 2512 contract showed a small positive line with a short upper shadow. This pattern reflects a multi - empty game situation where bulls dominated the day, but faced certain selling pressure at high levels, and the lower support was relatively strong. The closing price stood above the high of the previous trading day, continuing the upward channel trend since October 29 [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber futures 2601 contracts are expected to run strongly, with Shanghai rubber showing a slightly stronger trend in the short - term and both being in an oscillatory state in the medium - term [1][5][7] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **View**: Short - term is weak, medium - term is oscillatory, intraday is strong, and the reference view is strong operation [1][5] - **Core Logic**: The U.S. Senate's key step to end the federal government "shutdown" re - stimulates investors' risk appetite, and market optimism recovers. With the enhancement of macro factors and a decent supply - demand structure in the rubber market, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory and stable trend on Tuesday night, with the futures price slightly rising 0.03% to 15,140 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Wednesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **View**: Short - term is weak, medium - term is oscillatory, intraday is strong, and the reference view is strong operation [1][7] - **Core Logic**: The U.S. Senate's agreement to end the federal government "shutdown" boosts market optimism and investors' risk appetite. With the enhancement of macro factors and a decent supply - demand structure in the rubber market, the market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated", and investors' sentiment has become more cautious. The domestic synthetic rubber futures 2601 contract showed an oscillatory and strong trend on Tuesday night, with the futures price slightly rising 0.97% to 10,375 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a strong trend on Wednesday [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) 2601 and synthetic rubber (BR) 2601 are expected to run strongly, with a short - term weak trend, a medium - term oscillatory trend, and a strong intraday trend [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On the night session of Monday this week, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.76% to 15,160 yuan/ton [5] - **Driving Logic**: The Senate of the US Congress has reached an agreement to end the federal government "shutdown", which has improved market optimism and boosted investors' risk appetite. After the enhancement of macro factors, combined with the acceptable supply - demand structure of the rubber market, it is expected that the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract may maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Tuesday this week [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On the night session of Monday this week, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2601 contract showed an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.83% to 10,285 yuan/ton [7] - **Driving Logic**: The Senate of the US Congress has reached an agreement to end the federal government "shutdown", which has improved market optimism and boosted investors' risk appetite. After the enhancement of macro factors, combined with the acceptable supply - demand structure of the rubber market. The market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated", and investors' sentiment has become more cautious. It is expected that the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2601 contract may maintain a strong trend on Tuesday this week [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others [5]. Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic sentiment is improving, leading to a continuous improvement in steel demand [5]. - Steel prices have shown an upward trend, with specific price increases noted for various steel products as of October 31 [3][10]. - The overall steel production has increased, while total inventory has decreased, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance [4][5]. - Long-term capacity control remains a key theme, with expectations for improved profitability for steel companies under precise regulation [5]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of October 31, 2025, the prices for various steel products in Shanghai are as follows: HRB400 rebar at 3210 CNY/ton (up 20 CNY), high line at 3400 CNY/ton (up 30 CNY), hot-rolled at 3340 CNY/ton (up 40 CNY), cold-rolled at 3820 CNY/ton (up 40 CNY), and medium plate at 3380 CNY/ton (unchanged) [3][10]. Profitability - Steel profits have decreased this week, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled margins changing by -40 CNY/ton, -2 CNY/ton, and -16 CNY/ton respectively. Electric arc furnace steel margins increased by 6 CNY/ton [3]. Production and Inventory - As of October 31, total steel production reached 8.75 million tons, an increase of 99,700 tons week-on-week. Total inventory decreased by 226,700 tons to 10.7585 million tons [4][5]. - Rebar apparent consumption increased to 2.3219 million tons, up 61,900 tons week-on-week [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in leading steel companies such as Hualing Steel, Baosteel, and Nanjing Steel, as well as companies in the special steel and pipe sectors [5].

Report Summary - The market focus is on the China-US economic and trade consultations from October 24th to 27th and the "15th Five-Year Plan" policy. The market risk appetite has increased, and the market has more expectations for next year's economic development. In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity and the proportion of molten aluminum slightly increased, and the output changed little. In October, the output is expected to further increase. The average weekly operating rate of enterprises is expected to remain stable at 62.5%. The LME 0 - 3 maintains a premium, and the LME inventory has declined slightly for two consecutive months. As of October 23rd, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.7 million tons month - on - month. The aluminum price has continued to rise due to the resonance of macro and micro factors, and investors should wait for a callback to buy. Pay attention to the results of the China - US consultations [5]. Multi - Empty Focus Bullish Factors - The increase in the domestic supply side is relatively limited [8]. - The social inventory of aluminum ingots has declined [8]. - The domestic and foreign macro - sentiment has warmed up [8]. Bearish Factors - After the end of the rainy season in Guinea, the import volume may gradually increase [8]. - The price of aluminum oxide continues to be weak [8]. Data Analysis Bauxite - In September, China's bauxite output was 4.8821 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.32%. The supply in Shanxi and Henan is tight, but the overall price is expected to remain stable. With the end of the rainy season, the domestic supply is expected to significantly recover [20]. - In September, China's bauxite imports were 15.88 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.2% and a year - on - year increase of 37.5%. The imports from Guinea and Australia decreased. After the end of the rainy season in Guinea, the import volume may gradually increase [22]. Alumina - In September, the alumina price declined, and the factory profit decreased but still had a profit. The output decreased by 1.7% month - on - month and increased by 5.3% year - on - year. The actual operating capacity increased by 1.54% month - on - month, and the operating rate was 80.2%. It is expected that the output in October will remain stable [25]. Electrolytic Aluminum - In September, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 3.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The operating capacity and the proportion of molten aluminum slightly increased, and the output changed little. In October, the daily average output of aluminum ingots is expected to further increase [29]. - In September, the weighted average full cost of the Chinese electrolytic aluminum industry was 15,918 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 193 yuan/ton. The theoretical industry profit reached 4,849 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 301 yuan/ton [33]. - Last week, the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises was stable at 62.5%. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to slightly increase this week [37]. Inventory - The LME aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and as of a certain time, it was 477,675 tons. The SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 2.2% week - on - week to 122,028 tons [50]. - As of October 23rd, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 618,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons [54]. Price Premium - On October 23rd, the average price premium of Shanghai Wumao aluminum changed from par to a discount of 30 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium decreased to 8.21 US dollars/ton [58]. Recycled Aluminum - In September, the output of recycled aluminum alloy was 661,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. It is expected that the output in October will slightly decrease [62]. - As of October 16th, the operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry was 58.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3% [66]. Unwrought Aluminum Alloy - In September, the import of unwrought aluminum alloy was about 82,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.2% and a month - on - month increase of 15.77%. It is expected that the import increase in October will be limited and lower than the same - period import volume [70]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - As of October 24th, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 75,300 tons, an increase of 900 tons from last week, and the in - factory inventory was 59,700 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from last week [76]. Market Outlook - Aluminum alloy: The price of scrap aluminum is firm, the inventory of recycled aluminum has decreased, and the price of aluminum alloy will continue to remain high [78]. - SHFE aluminum: Due to the resonance of macro and micro factors, the aluminum price has continued to rise. Investors should wait for a callback to buy and pay attention to the results of the China - US consultations [80].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Steel: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to have a short - term rebound [3][4][5]. - Iron ore: Due to macro - level benefits, the short - term market is expected to be strong, and short - selling positions should be reduced [7][8][9]. - Coke: The market sentiment has improved, and there may be a short - term rebound [10][12][13]. - Coking coal: Market sentiment improvement may lead to a short - term rebound [14][16][17]. - Ferroalloys: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may rebound in the short - term affected by the black series, but the medium - term prices are under pressure [18][19][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Variety Views - Rebar: In a state of weak supply and demand, strong exports relieve supply pressure, while the raw material end has shipment pressure. The real - world fundamentals have not improved significantly, but may rebound in the short - term due to improved macro - atmosphere [1][4]. - Hot - rolled coil: Output has increased, apparent demand has declined, and inventory has started to increase. Exports may decline later, and the overall surplus in the black chain suppresses the market. It may rebound in the short - term due to improved macro - atmosphere [1]. Price and Spread Data - Futures prices: Rebar 01 is 2951 with a decline of 19; Rebar 05 is 2952 with a decline of 14; Rebar 10 is 2959 with a decline of 15. Hot - rolled coil 01 is 3075 with a decline of 15; Hot - rolled coil 05 is 3072 with a decline of 16; Hot - rolled coil 10 is 3077 with a decline of 20 [2]. - Spot prices: Tangshan billet is 2880 with a decline of 20. Rebar prices in different regions range from 3100 - 3220, and hot - rolled coil prices range from 3120 - 3400 [2]. - Basis and spreads: The basis and spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spots have different changes [2]. Iron Ore Variety Views - Fundamentally, iron ore demand is supported by steel enterprise profits, but the short - term supply - demand structure is neutral to weak. Due to positive news from Sino - US talks, the short - term market is strong [1][8]. Price and Spread Data - Futures prices: Iron ore 01 is 665 with a decline of 1; Iron ore 05 is 647 with a decline of 2; Iron ore 09 is 701 with a decline of 4 [6]. - Spot prices: PB powder is 728 with a decline of 5; Yangdi powder is 620 with a decline of 5; BRBF powder is 749 with a decline of 5 [6]. - Spreads and basis: Different spreads and basis of iron ore futures and spots have various changes [6]. Coke Variety Views - Steel mills have initiated the third round of price cuts, reducing coke enterprise profits. Although there is some production reduction, overall output is still high. Demand is guaranteed to some extent, but procurement is cautious. The overall inventory is high, and the supply - demand is loose. It may rebound in the short - term due to improved macro - sentiment [1][12]. Price and Data - Futures prices: Coke 1 - month contract is 1358.5 with a decline of 17.5; Coke 5 - month contract is 1363.0 with a decline of 19.5; Coke 9 - month contract is 1342.0 with a decline of 25.5 [11]. - Spot prices: Lvliang quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1100 with no change; Rizhao Port first - grade metallurgical coke is 1340 with no change [11]. - Weekly data: Data such as capacity utilization, output, and inventory of coke have different changes [11]. Coking Coal Variety Views - Domestic coking coal production is still at a relatively high level, and there is no large - scale production reduction. Mine inventory is rising, and the supply - demand is loose. It may rebound in the short - term due to improved market sentiment [1][16]. Price and Data - Futures prices: Coking coal 1 - month contract is 773.0 with a decline of 13.0; Coking coal 5 - month contract is 802.5 with a decline of 2.0; Coking coal 9 - month contract is 757.0 with a decline of 11.0 [15]. - Spot prices: Lvliang main coking coal is 1150 with no change; Gujiao main coking coal is 1020 with no change [15]. - Weekly data: Data such as wash - coal plant开工率, output, and inventory of coking coal have different changes [15]. Ferroalloys Variety Views - Manganese silicon: The production reduction space in the production area is limited, and some factories may resume production. The manganese ore market is weak, and some mines' far - month quotes have a slight increase. It may rebound in the short - term affected by the black series, but the medium - term price is under pressure [1][19]. - Ferrosilicon: There is an expectation of electricity price reduction, and some enterprises have resumed production. The current supply is at a low level, and the inventory is being reduced. It may rebound in the short - term affected by the black series, but the medium - term price is under pressure [1][19]. Price and Data - Futures prices: Manganese silicon 01 is 5514 with a decline of 28; Manganese silicon 05 is 2238 with a decline of 38; Manganese silicon 09 is 5482 with a decline of 20. Ferrosilicon 01 is 5110 with a decline of 48; Ferrosilicon 05 is 5140 with a decline of 34; Ferrosilicon 09 is 5102 with a decline of 44 [18]. - Spot prices: Silicon - manganese 6517 in different regions is 5300 - 5450, and ferrosilicon 72 in different regions is 5230 - 5300 [18]. - Weekly data: Data such as enterprise开工率, output, and inventory of ferroalloys have different changes [18].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The macro sentiment is improving, leading to a recovery in base metal prices, particularly copper and aluminum [1][10] - Gold prices are under pressure due to easing risk sentiment and trade negotiations between the US and China [2][25] - Supply tightness is pushing tungsten prices higher, while other small metals show mixed trends [3][43] Summary by Sections Base and Precious Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are fluctuating at high levels, with social inventory showing signs of recovery. The current inventory level is low, but demand is weakening as it enters the off-season [1][13] - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices have rebounded, supported by improved macro sentiment and declining social inventory. The theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry has slightly increased [1][20] - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices have decreased by 3.54% to an average of 768.56 CNY/g, while silver prices fell by 1.13% to 8111 CNY/kg. The easing of trade tensions has limited gold's rebound potential [2][25] Minor Metals - **Tungsten**: Prices for tungsten have increased due to supply tightness, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 161,500 CNY/ton, up by 8,000 CNY/ton. The market is cautious due to high prices and limited low-cost supply [3][63] - **Lithium**: The lithium market remains stable with prices holding steady, but demand is weak, leading to a supply surplus [43][43] - **Cobalt**: Cobalt prices are stable, with limited trading activity due to cautious market sentiment and reduced purchasing intentions from downstream manufacturers [45][46] Rare Earths - **Light Rare Earths**: Prices for light rare earths, such as praseodymium and neodymium, have increased by 2.6% to 434,000 CNY/ton, supported by improving macro conditions and easing export controls [4][4] Other Metals - **Molybdenum**: The molybdenum market is stable with slight price increases, but the overall market remains cautious with limited trading activity [68][69]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in the copper, aluminum, and nickel markets, with specific attention to the impact of U.S. budget surpluses and tariff negotiations between China and the U.S. [1] - In April, the U.S. budget surplus reached $258.4 billion, an increase from $209.5 billion in the same period last year, while customs tariff revenue hit a record high of $16.3 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of $9.2 billion, or 130% [1] - The LME copper inventory decreased by 1,025 tons to 190,750 tons, indicating a tightening supply [1] Group 2 - Domestic demand for copper is currently stable, but expectations of a seasonal slowdown may lead to a gradual decrease in end-user orders [1] - Short-term copper prices are expected to be supported, projected to rise to the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, although attention should be paid to downstream acceptance at high price levels and the fundamentals of supply and inventory [1] - The aluminum market shows a mixed trend, with the AO2509 closing at 2,832 yuan/ton, up 0.6%, and the AL2506 closing at 19,935 yuan/ton, up 0.91% [1] Group 3 - The LME nickel price fell by 1.89% to $15,550 per ton, while the SHFE nickel price dropped by 1.26% to 124,180 yuan/ton [1] - LME nickel inventory increased by 84 tons to 197,754 tons, while domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 204 tons to 23,222 tons [1] - The nickel market is experiencing strong prices for nickel ore, but the demand side is seeing inventory accumulation, indicating a potential pressure on nickel prices if domestic primary nickel continues to accumulate [1]