Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Steel: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to have a short - term rebound [3][4][5]. - Iron ore: Due to macro - level benefits, the short - term market is expected to be strong, and short - selling positions should be reduced [7][8][9]. - Coke: The market sentiment has improved, and there may be a short - term rebound [10][12][13]. - Coking coal: Market sentiment improvement may lead to a short - term rebound [14][16][17]. - Ferroalloys: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may rebound in the short - term affected by the black series, but the medium - term prices are under pressure [18][19][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Variety Views - Rebar: In a state of weak supply and demand, strong exports relieve supply pressure, while the raw material end has shipment pressure. The real - world fundamentals have not improved significantly, but may rebound in the short - term due to improved macro - atmosphere [1][4]. - Hot - rolled coil: Output has increased, apparent demand has declined, and inventory has started to increase. Exports may decline later, and the overall surplus in the black chain suppresses the market. It may rebound in the short - term due to improved macro - atmosphere [1]. Price and Spread Data - Futures prices: Rebar 01 is 2951 with a decline of 19; Rebar 05 is 2952 with a decline of 14; Rebar 10 is 2959 with a decline of 15. Hot - rolled coil 01 is 3075 with a decline of 15; Hot - rolled coil 05 is 3072 with a decline of 16; Hot - rolled coil 10 is 3077 with a decline of 20 [2]. - Spot prices: Tangshan billet is 2880 with a decline of 20. Rebar prices in different regions range from 3100 - 3220, and hot - rolled coil prices range from 3120 - 3400 [2]. - Basis and spreads: The basis and spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spots have different changes [2]. Iron Ore Variety Views - Fundamentally, iron ore demand is supported by steel enterprise profits, but the short - term supply - demand structure is neutral to weak. Due to positive news from Sino - US talks, the short - term market is strong [1][8]. Price and Spread Data - Futures prices: Iron ore 01 is 665 with a decline of 1; Iron ore 05 is 647 with a decline of 2; Iron ore 09 is 701 with a decline of 4 [6]. - Spot prices: PB powder is 728 with a decline of 5; Yangdi powder is 620 with a decline of 5; BRBF powder is 749 with a decline of 5 [6]. - Spreads and basis: Different spreads and basis of iron ore futures and spots have various changes [6]. Coke Variety Views - Steel mills have initiated the third round of price cuts, reducing coke enterprise profits. Although there is some production reduction, overall output is still high. Demand is guaranteed to some extent, but procurement is cautious. The overall inventory is high, and the supply - demand is loose. It may rebound in the short - term due to improved macro - sentiment [1][12]. Price and Data - Futures prices: Coke 1 - month contract is 1358.5 with a decline of 17.5; Coke 5 - month contract is 1363.0 with a decline of 19.5; Coke 9 - month contract is 1342.0 with a decline of 25.5 [11]. - Spot prices: Lvliang quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1100 with no change; Rizhao Port first - grade metallurgical coke is 1340 with no change [11]. - Weekly data: Data such as capacity utilization, output, and inventory of coke have different changes [11]. Coking Coal Variety Views - Domestic coking coal production is still at a relatively high level, and there is no large - scale production reduction. Mine inventory is rising, and the supply - demand is loose. It may rebound in the short - term due to improved market sentiment [1][16]. Price and Data - Futures prices: Coking coal 1 - month contract is 773.0 with a decline of 13.0; Coking coal 5 - month contract is 802.5 with a decline of 2.0; Coking coal 9 - month contract is 757.0 with a decline of 11.0 [15]. - Spot prices: Lvliang main coking coal is 1150 with no change; Gujiao main coking coal is 1020 with no change [15]. - Weekly data: Data such as wash - coal plant开工率, output, and inventory of coking coal have different changes [15]. Ferroalloys Variety Views - Manganese silicon: The production reduction space in the production area is limited, and some factories may resume production. The manganese ore market is weak, and some mines' far - month quotes have a slight increase. It may rebound in the short - term affected by the black series, but the medium - term price is under pressure [1][19]. - Ferrosilicon: There is an expectation of electricity price reduction, and some enterprises have resumed production. The current supply is at a low level, and the inventory is being reduced. It may rebound in the short - term affected by the black series, but the medium - term price is under pressure [1][19]. Price and Data - Futures prices: Manganese silicon 01 is 5514 with a decline of 28; Manganese silicon 05 is 2238 with a decline of 38; Manganese silicon 09 is 5482 with a decline of 20. Ferrosilicon 01 is 5110 with a decline of 48; Ferrosilicon 05 is 5140 with a decline of 34; Ferrosilicon 09 is 5102 with a decline of 44 [18]. - Spot prices: Silicon - manganese 6517 in different regions is 5300 - 5450, and ferrosilicon 72 in different regions is 5230 - 5300 [18]. - Weekly data: Data such as enterprise开工率, output, and inventory of ferroalloys have different changes [18].

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 金属与材料 证券研究报告 宏观情绪回暖，看好基本金属向上修复 基本金属：关税政策缓和，宏观情绪回暖，铜铝价格向上修复。1）铜：本周铜价震荡，沪铜收于 77670 元/吨。宏观层面，中美贸易摩擦缓和，叠加美国通胀降温，4月 CPI 同比上涨2.3%，加大美联储降息概率， 整个宏观面上交易情绪回暖，提振铜价上行。基本面上，铜精矿现货 TC 继续回落，再度创历史新低，但下 跌速度放缓，本周随着铜价上行，国内再生铜供应紧张局面缓和，成交量有明显改善，但再生铜进口端仍 呈现下滑趋势。整体来看，5月部分铜材加工率环比4 月有所下滑，但好于去年同期，当前库存水平较低， 但需求已有走弱迹象，进人 5 月中下旬需求转为淡季，库存将由去库转为累库，对铜价的支撑作用减弱， 当前宏微观共振支撑短期铜价保持高位震荡运行。2）铝：本周铝价回升，沪铝收于 20190 元/吨，重新站 上 2 万大关。国内外宏观情绪大幅好转叠加中国铝锭社会库存持续降库，以及氧化铝价格上涨，现货铝价 上行。供应方面：本周山东地区电解铝企业继续向云南地区转移产能，广西地区电解铝企业有所复产。综 合来说，本周电解铝行业理论开工产能较上周 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in the copper, aluminum, and nickel markets, with specific attention to the impact of U.S. budget surpluses and tariff negotiations between China and the U.S. [1] - In April, the U.S. budget surplus reached $258.4 billion, an increase from $209.5 billion in the same period last year, while customs tariff revenue hit a record high of $16.3 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of $9.2 billion, or 130% [1] - The LME copper inventory decreased by 1,025 tons to 190,750 tons, indicating a tightening supply [1] Group 2 - Domestic demand for copper is currently stable, but expectations of a seasonal slowdown may lead to a gradual decrease in end-user orders [1] - Short-term copper prices are expected to be supported, projected to rise to the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, although attention should be paid to downstream acceptance at high price levels and the fundamentals of supply and inventory [1] - The aluminum market shows a mixed trend, with the AO2509 closing at 2,832 yuan/ton, up 0.6%, and the AL2506 closing at 19,935 yuan/ton, up 0.91% [1] Group 3 - The LME nickel price fell by 1.89% to $15,550 per ton, while the SHFE nickel price dropped by 1.26% to 124,180 yuan/ton [1] - LME nickel inventory increased by 84 tons to 197,754 tons, while domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 204 tons to 23,222 tons [1] - The nickel market is experiencing strong prices for nickel ore, but the demand side is seeing inventory accumulation, indicating a potential pressure on nickel prices if domestic primary nickel continues to accumulate [1]