Group 1 - Nickel futures market shows a rebound driven by a weaker US dollar and improved sentiment in the US stock market, with LME nickel closing at 17,410, up 175 USD/ton, a 1.02% increase [1] - Domestic nickel futures also experienced a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 134,820 CNY/ton, up 1,210 CNY/ton, a 0.91% rise [1] - LME nickel inventory reported at 285,072 tons, a decrease of 210 tons from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment indicates a warming sentiment, with the overnight surge in LME nickel attributed to improved market conditions rather than fundamental changes [2] - The weakening US dollar has elevated industrial metal valuations, while a rebound in US tech stocks has increased risk appetite and attracted funds back into the non-ferrous sector [2] - Geopolitical tensions are providing support for nickel prices, with expectations of supply disruptions from key producing countries, particularly Indonesia, which plans to cut nickel mining quotas by 34% by 2026 [2] Group 3 - The nickel market is currently experiencing a dual warm macro environment, with expectations of recovery post-holiday supporting prices [2] - The demand for traditional stainless steel is weakening, while the demand for high-nickel batteries in the new energy sector remains robust, with a projected penetration rate exceeding 70% by 2026 [2] - Investment strategy suggests a cautious approach ahead of the holiday, avoiding high-risk positions while waiting for post-holiday recovery opportunities [2]

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 1 / 2 7 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.， LTD 聊聊纯碱期货上涨五大理由 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.， ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1. 宏观情绪回暖：央行宽松货币信号释放，稳增长预期升温，资金回流大宗商品，叠加玻璃等关联品种联动上 涨，带动纯碱期货多头情绪发酵。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 2. 成本支撑强化：煤炭等能源价格反弹推高纯碱生产成本，氨碱、联碱企业多处于亏损状态，天然碱成本线约 1100-1150元/吨，低价下企业挺价意愿增强，现货报价小幅上调，托底期货价格。 3. 供应短期扰动：部分企业临时检修，行业开工率阶段性波动，叠加春节前物流运力偏紧，主产区货源外运延 迟，销区短期流通性紧张，放大市场对供应的担忧。 4. 库存阶段性去化：截至1月22日厂 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 1 / 2 6 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.， LTD 聊聊纯碱期货上涨五大理由 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1. 宏观情绪回暖：央行宽松货币信号释放，稳增长预期升温，资金回流大宗商品，叠加玻璃等关联品种联动上 涨，带动纯碱期货多头情绪发酵。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 2. 成本支撑强化：煤炭等能源价格反弹推高纯碱生产成本，氨碱、联碱企业多处于亏损状态，天然碱成本线约 1100-1150元/吨，低价下企业挺价意愿增强，现货报价小幅上调，托底期货价格。 3. 供应短期扰动：部分企业临时检修，行业开工率阶段性波动，叠加春节前物流运力偏紧，主产区货源外运延 迟，销区短期流通性紧张，放大市场对供应的担忧。 4. 库存阶段性去化：截至1月22日厂家总库存152.12万吨，周降2.3万吨，虽仍 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that palm oil futures have rebounded significantly, driven by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical influences, making it the leading commodity in the vegetable oil sector [1][2]. - On January 13, the main contract for palm oil futures rose by 1.39%, closing at 8778 yuan per ton, indicating a strong upward trend in prices [1]. - The rebound in palm oil prices is attributed to two main factors: improved macroeconomic sentiment leading to a rise in commodity prices and a rebound in crude oil prices influenced by geopolitical factors in the Middle East [1][2]. Group 2 - Despite the positive momentum, market analysts express caution regarding the sustainability of the price increase, noting that high palm oil inventories and a lack of strong demand may limit further price gains [2][3]. - The current high inventory levels of Malaysian palm oil, estimated at 3 million tons, are expected to suppress price increases in the near term, as the market may face slow inventory depletion [3]. - The financial attributes of palm oil make it more responsive to market sentiment, and the recent optimism in the funding environment may amplify short-term price increases [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The central bank's meeting emphasizes promoting high - quality economic development and a reasonable rise in prices, keeping the macro sentiment positive. The supply of coking coal is tightening, driving up the prices of coking coal and coke. With the expected resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking, iron ore prices remain strong. Although the fundamentals of steel in the off - season are lackluster, strong cost support keeps the futures prices strong. The price increase of glass and soda ash stimulates mid - stream restocking, but fundamental contradictions still exist [1][2]. - In general, the off - season fundamentals have few bright spots. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking intensity. The resumption of production by steel enterprises in January is expected to boost the restocking expectation further, and the prices of furnace materials are expected to rise from the low level, but the upside is limited by steel mills' profits [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Iron ore: Port inventories are continuously accumulating, and there are expectations of supply disruptions. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking on the demand side support the ore price. In reality, both supply and demand need to be verified. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [2][8]. - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills' inventories are high, and restocking has slowed down. The spot price of scrap steel lacks the momentum to rise, but the good profits of electric furnaces support the demand. Overall, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [2][9]. Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mills' resumption of production still exists. As mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten. The sharp rise in the futures market may drive spot - futures and speculative demand to enter the market for procurement. The room for further price cuts in the spot market is limited, and the futures price is expected to follow that of coking coal [2][11]. - Coking coal: As the Chinese New Year approaches, the intensity of winter restocking is increasing, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the futures and spot prices still have upward momentum [2][12]. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon remains loose, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. In the medium term, the futures price is expected to gradually fall back to near the cost valuation. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up [3][17]. - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the supply pressure of ferrosilicon is not large. The strong rebound of the black chain and the expected increase in electricity costs in Shaanxi support the futures price to maintain a high level in the short term. However, if the spot price rises significantly due to the influence of the futures, the resumption of production by manufacturers may accelerate after profit repair, and the upstream supply pressure may reappear. Caution should be exercised regarding the upside space of the futures price [3][19]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply exceeds demand. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [3][6][13]. - Soda ash: The overall supply exceeds demand. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of oversupply will intensify further, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [3][6][16]. Other Information - Steel: The cost and sentiment provide support, and the futures price is strong. The spot market transactions have improved, and the profitability of steel mills has improved. However, in the off - season, the demand is facing downward pressure, and the inventory removal speed has slowed down. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate widely at a low level, and attention should be paid to the pre - festival restocking rhythm [8]. - Commodity Index: On January 7, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities rose. The special index, including the Commodity Index, Commodity 20 Index, and Industrial Products Index, also increased. The steel industry chain index had significant gains, with a daily increase of 3.33%, a 5 - day increase of 2.82%, a 1 - month increase of 4.79%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.21% [106][107].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short term, under the influence of the macro - sentiment, the non - ferrous metal sector has generally recovered. Coupled with the unchanged tight balance between supply and demand, the price of Shanghai tin is expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend [8] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content Market Performance - Today, the Shanghai tin contract continued the recent rebound trend, showing a pattern of "gapping up and rising, and oscillating at a high level". After opening in the morning, it was driven by the warming macro - sentiment and the general rise of the non - ferrous metal sector. Then, restricted by the cautious purchasing attitude of downstream users, the market slightly declined to the daily low. In the afternoon, the game between bulls and bears intensified, and the price oscillated and consolidated in the high - level range, with the total trading volume of the day being a certain number of lots [2] - The total trading volume of Shanghai tin futures contracts was 72,954 lots, and the total open interest was 79,757 lots. Specific data for each contract, such as open price, high price, low price, closing price, settlement reference price, price change, trading volume, trading value, and open interest change, are detailed in the table [4] Technical Analysis - Today, the daily chart of the Shanghai tin 2512 contract showed a small positive line with a short upper shadow. This pattern reflects a multi - empty game situation where bulls dominated the day, but faced certain selling pressure at high levels, and the lower support was relatively strong. The closing price stood above the high of the previous trading day, continuing the upward channel trend since October 29 [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber futures 2601 contracts are expected to run strongly, with Shanghai rubber showing a slightly stronger trend in the short - term and both being in an oscillatory state in the medium - term [1][5][7] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **View**: Short - term is weak, medium - term is oscillatory, intraday is strong, and the reference view is strong operation [1][5] - **Core Logic**: The U.S. Senate's key step to end the federal government "shutdown" re - stimulates investors' risk appetite, and market optimism recovers. With the enhancement of macro factors and a decent supply - demand structure in the rubber market, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory and stable trend on Tuesday night, with the futures price slightly rising 0.03% to 15,140 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Wednesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **View**: Short - term is weak, medium - term is oscillatory, intraday is strong, and the reference view is strong operation [1][7] - **Core Logic**: The U.S. Senate's agreement to end the federal government "shutdown" boosts market optimism and investors' risk appetite. With the enhancement of macro factors and a decent supply - demand structure in the rubber market, the market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated", and investors' sentiment has become more cautious. The domestic synthetic rubber futures 2601 contract showed an oscillatory and strong trend on Tuesday night, with the futures price slightly rising 0.97% to 10,375 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a strong trend on Wednesday [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) 2601 and synthetic rubber (BR) 2601 are expected to run strongly, with a short - term weak trend, a medium - term oscillatory trend, and a strong intraday trend [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On the night session of Monday this week, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.76% to 15,160 yuan/ton [5] - **Driving Logic**: The Senate of the US Congress has reached an agreement to end the federal government "shutdown", which has improved market optimism and boosted investors' risk appetite. After the enhancement of macro factors, combined with the acceptable supply - demand structure of the rubber market, it is expected that the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract may maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Tuesday this week [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On the night session of Monday this week, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2601 contract showed an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.83% to 10,285 yuan/ton [7] - **Driving Logic**: The Senate of the US Congress has reached an agreement to end the federal government "shutdown", which has improved market optimism and boosted investors' risk appetite. After the enhancement of macro factors, combined with the acceptable supply - demand structure of the rubber market. The market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated", and investors' sentiment has become more cautious. It is expected that the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2601 contract may maintain a strong trend on Tuesday this week [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others [5]. Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic sentiment is improving, leading to a continuous improvement in steel demand [5]. - Steel prices have shown an upward trend, with specific price increases noted for various steel products as of October 31 [3][10]. - The overall steel production has increased, while total inventory has decreased, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance [4][5]. - Long-term capacity control remains a key theme, with expectations for improved profitability for steel companies under precise regulation [5]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of October 31, 2025, the prices for various steel products in Shanghai are as follows: HRB400 rebar at 3210 CNY/ton (up 20 CNY), high line at 3400 CNY/ton (up 30 CNY), hot-rolled at 3340 CNY/ton (up 40 CNY), cold-rolled at 3820 CNY/ton (up 40 CNY), and medium plate at 3380 CNY/ton (unchanged) [3][10]. Profitability - Steel profits have decreased this week, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled margins changing by -40 CNY/ton, -2 CNY/ton, and -16 CNY/ton respectively. Electric arc furnace steel margins increased by 6 CNY/ton [3]. Production and Inventory - As of October 31, total steel production reached 8.75 million tons, an increase of 99,700 tons week-on-week. Total inventory decreased by 226,700 tons to 10.7585 million tons [4][5]. - Rebar apparent consumption increased to 2.3219 million tons, up 61,900 tons week-on-week [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in leading steel companies such as Hualing Steel, Baosteel, and Nanjing Steel, as well as companies in the special steel and pipe sectors [5].

Report Summary - The market focus is on the China-US economic and trade consultations from October 24th to 27th and the "15th Five-Year Plan" policy. The market risk appetite has increased, and the market has more expectations for next year's economic development. In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity and the proportion of molten aluminum slightly increased, and the output changed little. In October, the output is expected to further increase. The average weekly operating rate of enterprises is expected to remain stable at 62.5%. The LME 0 - 3 maintains a premium, and the LME inventory has declined slightly for two consecutive months. As of October 23rd, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.7 million tons month - on - month. The aluminum price has continued to rise due to the resonance of macro and micro factors, and investors should wait for a callback to buy. Pay attention to the results of the China - US consultations [5]. Multi - Empty Focus Bullish Factors - The increase in the domestic supply side is relatively limited [8]. - The social inventory of aluminum ingots has declined [8]. - The domestic and foreign macro - sentiment has warmed up [8]. Bearish Factors - After the end of the rainy season in Guinea, the import volume may gradually increase [8]. - The price of aluminum oxide continues to be weak [8]. Data Analysis Bauxite - In September, China's bauxite output was 4.8821 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.32%. The supply in Shanxi and Henan is tight, but the overall price is expected to remain stable. With the end of the rainy season, the domestic supply is expected to significantly recover [20]. - In September, China's bauxite imports were 15.88 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.2% and a year - on - year increase of 37.5%. The imports from Guinea and Australia decreased. After the end of the rainy season in Guinea, the import volume may gradually increase [22]. Alumina - In September, the alumina price declined, and the factory profit decreased but still had a profit. The output decreased by 1.7% month - on - month and increased by 5.3% year - on - year. The actual operating capacity increased by 1.54% month - on - month, and the operating rate was 80.2%. It is expected that the output in October will remain stable [25]. Electrolytic Aluminum - In September, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 3.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The operating capacity and the proportion of molten aluminum slightly increased, and the output changed little. In October, the daily average output of aluminum ingots is expected to further increase [29]. - In September, the weighted average full cost of the Chinese electrolytic aluminum industry was 15,918 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 193 yuan/ton. The theoretical industry profit reached 4,849 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 301 yuan/ton [33]. - Last week, the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises was stable at 62.5%. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to slightly increase this week [37]. Inventory - The LME aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and as of a certain time, it was 477,675 tons. The SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 2.2% week - on - week to 122,028 tons [50]. - As of October 23rd, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 618,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons [54]. Price Premium - On October 23rd, the average price premium of Shanghai Wumao aluminum changed from par to a discount of 30 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium decreased to 8.21 US dollars/ton [58]. Recycled Aluminum - In September, the output of recycled aluminum alloy was 661,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. It is expected that the output in October will slightly decrease [62]. - As of October 16th, the operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry was 58.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3% [66]. Unwrought Aluminum Alloy - In September, the import of unwrought aluminum alloy was about 82,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.2% and a month - on - month increase of 15.77%. It is expected that the import increase in October will be limited and lower than the same - period import volume [70]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - As of October 24th, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 75,300 tons, an increase of 900 tons from last week, and the in - factory inventory was 59,700 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from last week [76]. Market Outlook - Aluminum alloy: The price of scrap aluminum is firm, the inventory of recycled aluminum has decreased, and the price of aluminum alloy will continue to remain high [78]. - SHFE aluminum: Due to the resonance of macro and micro factors, the aluminum price has continued to rise. Investors should wait for a callback to buy and pay attention to the results of the China - US consultations [80].